Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report regularly sorts out the latest private exchangeable bond (private EB) project information available from public channels and tracks the basic elements of private exchangeable bond projects [1] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Newly Added Projects from 20251124 - 20251128 - New Hope Group Co., Ltd.'s 2025 private offering of technological innovation exchangeable corporate bonds to professional investors was approved by the exchange, with an intended issuance scale of 4.5 billion yuan, the underlying stock being New Hope (000876.SZ), the lead underwriter being CICC, and the exchange update date being November 27, 2025 [1] - Jiangsu Shenghong Technology Co., Ltd.'s 2025 private offering of exchangeable corporate bonds to professional investors was approved by the exchange, with an intended issuance scale of 3 billion yuan (down from the previous plan), the underlying stock being Orient Shenghong (000301.SZ), the lead underwriter being Huatai United Securities, and the exchange update date being November 27, 2025 [1] - Shenzhen Huaqiang Group Co., Ltd.'s 2025 private offering of exchangeable corporate bonds (second time) to professional investors was approved by the exchange, with an intended issuance scale of 1.3 billion yuan (down from the previous plan), the underlying stock being Shenzhen Huaqiang (000062.SZ), the lead underwriter being Jinyuan United Securities, and the exchange update date being November 27, 2025 [1] - Hainan农垦 Investment Holdings Group Co., Ltd.'s 2025 private offering of exchangeable corporate bonds to professional investors was accepted by the exchange, with an intended issuance scale of 2.1 billion yuan, the underlying stock being Hainan Rubber (601118.SH), the lead underwriter being CITIC Securities, and the exchange update date being November 25, 2025 [1] Other Project Status (as of 2025 - 11 - 28) - Multiple projects such as those of Guangdong Shengyi Technology Co., Ltd., Hangzhou Iron & Steel Group Co., Ltd., etc., have been approved by the exchange, with different intended issuance scales, underlying stocks, lead underwriters, and update dates [3] - Projects of companies like Strait Innovation Internet Co., Ltd. and Sichuan Jiuzhou Investment Holdings Group Co., Ltd. are in the "Feedback Received" status [3]

Market Overview - The communication sector outperformed the market in November, with the communication index rising by 1.85% while the CSI 300 index fell by 2.46%, ranking 6th among 31 primary industries [12][16] - Notable stocks in the sector included Changguang Huaxin (up 58.52%), Tengjing Technology (up 49.66%), and Guangke Technology (up 36.11%) [12][24] AI Infrastructure Growth - The financial reports from major North American tech companies indicate a sustained high demand for computing power, particularly driven by AI investments. NVIDIA reported a significant revenue increase of 62% year-on-year for Q3 2025, with data center revenue growing by 66% [30][31] - Capital expenditures (CAPEX) from major cloud service providers (CSPs) reached nearly $120 billion in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate exceeding 50%. TrendForce revised the expected growth rate for global CSPs' capital expenditures in 2025 from 61% to 65% [2][30] Competitive Landscape - Google has enhanced its TPU capabilities with the introduction of Ironwood, its most powerful and efficient accelerator to date. This development raises concerns about NVIDIA's market position, although NVIDIA maintains a strong foothold in the AI infrastructure space through its GPU and CUDA ecosystem [3][62] - Meta plans to integrate Google's TPU chips into its data centers by 2027, potentially worth billions, indicating a shift in competitive dynamics within the AI hardware market [3][57] Investment Recommendations - Continued focus on AI computing infrastructure, edge computing, and commercial aerospace is advised. Key areas for investment include optical devices and modules, communication equipment, and liquid cooling technologies [4][69] - The three major telecom operators are considered important assets for long-term investment due to their stable operations and increasing dividend payouts [4][69] Company Performance Insights - NVIDIA's Q3 2025 revenue reached $57 billion, with a notable increase in data center revenue, affirming the strong demand for AI-related hardware [31][33] - Google's Q3 2025 revenue surpassed $102 billion, driven by growth across all major business segments, including a 34% increase in cloud revenue [36][38] - Microsoft reported a 18% increase in revenue for Q3 2025, with significant investments in AI and cloud services, indicating a robust growth trajectory [41][42] - Amazon's cloud business, AWS, achieved a 20% revenue growth in Q3 2025, with expectations for increased capital expenditures in the coming years [51][53] - Meta's Q3 2025 revenue was $51.24 billion, but net profit declined significantly due to increased costs, prompting a rise in capital expenditure forecasts [46][50]

Group 1: Bond Market Analysis - The bond market experienced a significant pullback this week, with short-term bonds supported by central bank liquidity and demand, maintaining stable yields[1] - Long-term bonds faced pressure due to policy concerns and profit-taking, but later recovered as fundamental expectations solidified and institutional buying resumed[1] - The recent actions of major banks to withdraw large-denomination certificates of deposit have raised expectations for interest rate declines, providing policy support for a potential bond market recovery[1] Group 2: Market Performance Overview - From November 22 to November 29, the CSI 300 index rose by 1.65%, the Hang Seng Index increased by 2.54%, and the S&P 500 gained 3.73%[2] - The 10-year China bond yield increased by 2.47 basis points, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 4 basis points[2] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.72%, and the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.49%[2] Group 3: Inventory and Fund Behavior - The latest weekly crude oil inventory stood at 44,355 million tons, up by 2.78 million tons from the previous week[3] - The latest data shows a decrease in long positions in the U.S. dollar by 177 contracts, while short positions increased by 1,611 contracts[3] - The gold ETF size rose to 3,361 million ounces, an increase of 160,000 ounces from the previous week[3]

Core Insights - The report identifies a significant ESG premium phenomenon in the A-share market, particularly pronounced in large-cap and mid-cap stocks, indicating that companies with higher ESG scores tend to yield higher future returns [1][2][3] - The study utilizes a comprehensive ESG scoring dataset from Zhitong and employs Fama and French's sorting and cross-sectional regression methods to analyze the relationship between stock returns and ESG performance over an extended period [1][2] ESG Premium Analysis - The report finds a clear positive correlation between ESG indicators and stock returns across the full sample and various market capitalization groups, with the hedge portfolio (longing high ESG score stocks and shorting low ESG score stocks) showing increasing returns with larger stock sizes [1][2][3] - Among the ESG components, the social responsibility (S) indicator exhibits the strongest alpha source, consistently showing a positive correlation with returns across all market sizes, while the environmental (E) indicator also demonstrates significant predictive power in large-cap stocks [2][5] Robustness Checks - The robustness tests indicate that while the significance of the ESG indicators may decrease when adjusted using the Chinese four-factor model, the hedge portfolios based on ESG and S indicators still achieve significant excess returns in large-cap and all size groups respectively [3][5] - The report emphasizes that the ESG factors encourage "investment for good," suggesting that higher ESG scores correlate with better stock performance, particularly in large and mid-cap stocks, which can effectively filter out underperforming stocks [3][5] Methodology and Data - The research design incorporates a rigorous approach to ESG data reliability, utilizing Zhitong's ESG scoring system, which covers a wide range of A-share stocks and provides monthly updates, thus addressing the limitations of existing ESG rating data [21][22][23] - The study categorizes stocks into four groups based on market capitalization (large, mid, small, and micro) and analyzes the average returns and standard deviations of these groups, revealing that smaller stocks tend to have higher average returns but also higher volatility [31][32][34]

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月30日 估值周观察(11月第5期) 科技主导"反弹周" 策略研究 · 专题报告 证券分析师：王开 021-60933132 wangkai8@guosen.com.cn S0980521030001 证券分析师：陈凯畅 021-60375429 chengkaichang@guosen.com.cn S0980523090002 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 核心观点 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 近一周（2025.11.24-2025.11.28）海外市场普遍反弹，估值随股价修复。美股领涨，主要指数均上涨3%以上，其中纳斯达克100涨幅 最显著（+4.93%）。欧元区中，德国表现突出；亚洲市场整体温和上涨，恒生科技和日经225涨幅超3%，估值随股价修复。除道琼斯 工业指数，美股主要指数PE扩张均超过1x；纳斯达克、日经225、韩国综合指数、恒生科技PE扩张幅度超过2x。从估值分位数看，标 普500和法国CAC40位于历史较高水平，印度SENSEX30和恒生科技指数处于较低区间。 • 近一周(2025.11.24-2025.11.28)，A ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the A - share market rebounded continuously. Vanke's debt extension dragged down the bond market sentiment. On Friday, rumors that the six major banks stopped selling five - year large - value certificates of deposit and cut the interest rates of three - year deposit products led to an increase in domestic interest - rate cut expectations, causing a slight rebound in the bond market. Overall, the bond market first declined and then rebounded, while ultra - long bonds continued to fall. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds remained stable and was very active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat, and the variety spread narrowed [1][3][11]. - For the 30 - year treasury bond, as of November 30, the spread between the 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 34BP, at a historically low level. Considering the economic data and other factors, the bond market is more likely to fluctuate at a low level, and the spread repair between the 30 - year and 10 - year bonds is expected to end [2][12]. - For the 20 - year CDB bond, as of November 30, the spread between the 20 - year CDB bond and the 20 - year treasury bond was 12BP, at a historically extremely low level. Given the economic situation, the bond market is likely to fluctuate at a low level, and the variety spread of the 20 - year CDB bond is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [3][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Review 3.1.1 Ultra - long Bond Review - The A - share market rebounded continuously last week. Vanke's debt extension affected the bond market sentiment. The rumor of banks' deposit - product adjustments on Friday led to a slight rebound in the bond market. Ultra - long bonds continued to fall. Trading was active, with stable activity. The term spread remained flat, and the variety spread narrowed [1][11]. 3.1.2 Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bond**: The 30 - 10 spread is at a low level. In October, economic downward pressure increased, with GDP growth slowing and deflation risks. The bond market is likely to have low - level fluctuations, and the spread repair is expected to end [2][12]. - **20 - year CDB Bond**: The 20 - year CDB - treasury spread is extremely low. Similar to the 30 - year situation, the bond market is likely to fluctuate at a low level, and the CDB bond variety spread is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [3][13]. 3.1.3 Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds is 24.3 trillion. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties. By remaining maturity, the 30 - year variety has the highest proportion [14]. 3.2 Primary Market 3.2.1 Weekly Issuance - Last week, the issuance of ultra - long bonds increased significantly, reaching 173.5 billion yuan. By variety, local government bonds dominated. By term, 30 - year bonds had the largest issuance [19]. 3.2.2 This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced issuance plan for this week is 55.8 billion yuan, including 27 billion yuan of ultra - long treasury bonds and 28.8 billion yuan of ultra - long local government bonds [25]. 3.3 Secondary Market 3.3.1 Trading Volume - Last week, ultra - long bonds were actively traded, with a turnover of 913.6 billion yuan, accounting for 11.3% of all bonds. Compared with the previous week, the overall turnover decreased slightly, but there were different trends among varieties [27]. 3.3.2 Yield - The bond market first declined and then rebounded last week, and ultra - long bonds continued to fall. Yields of different - term bonds changed, and yields of representative individual bonds also changed [37][41]. 3.3.3 Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: It remained flat last week, with an absolute low level. The 30 - 10 treasury bond spread was 34BP, unchanged from the previous week [48]. - **Variety Spread**: It narrowed last week, with an absolute low level. The 20 - year CDB - treasury spread was 12BP, and the 20 - year railway bond - treasury spread was 18BP [49]. 3.4 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 closed at 114.46 yuan, a decrease of 0.81%. Trading volume and open interest increased significantly compared with the previous week [54].

Group 1: Bond Market Analysis - The bond market experienced a significant pullback this week, with short-term bonds supported by central bank liquidity and demand, maintaining stable yields[1] - Long-term bonds faced pressure due to policy concerns and profit-taking, but later recovered as fundamental expectations solidified and institutional buying resumed[1] - The recent actions of major banks to withdraw large-denomination certificates of deposit have raised expectations for interest rate declines, providing policy support for a potential bond market recovery[1] Group 2: Market Performance Overview - From November 22 to November 29, the CSI 300 index rose by 1.65%, the Hang Seng Index increased by 2.54%, and the S&P 500 gained 3.73%[2] - The 10-year China bond yield increased by 2.47 basis points, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 4 basis points[2] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.72%, and the offshore RMB appreciated by 0.49%[2] Group 3: Inventory and Fund Behavior - The latest weekly crude oil inventory stood at 44,355 million tons, up by 2.78 million tons from the previous week[3] - The latest week saw a decrease in long positions in the U.S. dollar by 177 contracts, while short positions increased by 1,611 contracts[3] - The gold ETF size rose to 3,361 million ounces, an increase of 160,000 ounces from the previous week[3]

Market Performance - The S&P 500 index closed at 6,849, reflecting a weekly increase of 3.7% and a year-to-date increase of 16.4%[6] - The Nasdaq 100 index reached 25,435, with a weekly rise of 4.9% and a year-to-date increase of 21.0%[6] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 3.2% this week, with a year-to-date growth of 12.2%[6] Sector Analysis - The automotive and auto parts sector saw a significant weekly increase of 9.3% and a year-to-date increase of 9.9%[9] - The information technology sector reported a weekly rise of 4.6% and a year-to-date increase of 32.8%[9] - The healthcare sector experienced a weekly increase of 1.9% and a year-to-date increase of 21.0%[9] Fund Flows - The energy sector recorded a net inflow of $48 million this week, with a total of $572 million over the past 52 weeks[11] - The materials sector faced a net outflow of $290 million this week, totaling a negative $3.344 billion over the past 52 weeks[11] - The financial sector had a net inflow of $2.106 billion this week, with a total outflow of $6.723 billion over the past 52 weeks[11] Earnings Forecast - The overall EPS adjustment for the energy sector was 0.3% this week, with a year-to-date adjustment of -7.4%[14] - The materials sector saw an EPS adjustment of 0.6% this week, with a year-to-date adjustment of 4.9%[14] - The information technology sector's EPS adjustment was 0.6% this week, with a year-to-date adjustment of 28.0%[14]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: Index Component Adjustment Impact Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to measure the impact of index component adjustments on stock prices, considering the scale of passive products tracking the index and the average trading volume of the stocks[7][8][9]. - **Detailed Construction Process**: - The model calculates the impact of index adjustments using the following formula: $$ \mathrm{effect}_{s} = \frac{\sum_{i}^{m} wt_{in} * index_{-}scale_{i} - \sum_{i}^{n} wt_{out} * index_{-}scale_{i}}{avg_{-}amt_{s}} $$ where: - \( wt_{in} \) represents the buy weight of the stock in the index - \( wt_{out} \) represents the sell weight of the stock in the index - \( index_{-}scale_{i} \) represents the total scale of passive products tracking the index - \( avg_{-}amt_{s} \) represents the average daily trading volume of the stock over the past two weeks[7][8][9]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively quantifies the potential trading impact on stocks due to index adjustments, providing valuable insights for identifying trading opportunities[7][8][9]. Model Backtesting Results - **Index Component Adjustment Impact Model**: - **Net Buy Scale**: - Shenghong Technology: 48.65 billion CNY[10] - Dongshan Precision: 47.91 billion CNY[10] - Guangqi Technology: 34.87 billion CNY[10] - **Impact Coefficient**: - Shenghong Technology: 0.57[10] - Dongshan Precision: 1.31[10] - Guangqi Technology: 3.37[10] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Impact Coefficient - **Factor Construction Idea**: The impact coefficient measures the potential impact on a stock's price due to changes in its index weight, considering the net adjustment scale and the stock's average trading volume[9][10][11]. - **Detailed Construction Process**: - The impact coefficient is calculated using the formula: $$ \text{Impact Coefficient} = \frac{\text{Net Adjustment Scale}}{\text{Average Daily Trading Volume}} $$ where: - Net Adjustment Scale is the net buy or sell scale of the stock due to index adjustments - Average Daily Trading Volume is the stock's average trading volume over the past two weeks[9][10][11]. - **Factor Evaluation**: The impact coefficient provides a clear measure of the potential price impact on stocks due to index adjustments, helping investors identify stocks that may experience significant price movements[9][10][11]. Factor Backtesting Results - **Impact Coefficient**: - **Stocks with Impact Coefficient > 2**: - Tower Group: 8.69[12] - Jiangzhong Pharmaceutical: 8.44[12] - Shanxi Drum Power: 6.99[12] - **Stocks with Impact Coefficient < -2**: - Deep Expressway: -15.65[14] - Wanhe Electric: -13.30[14] - Tianyoude Wine: -10.52[14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the A-share market rebounded continuously. Vanke's debt extension once dragged down bond market sentiment. On Friday, it was reported that the six major banks stopped selling five-year large - denomination certificates of deposit and lowered the interest rates of three - year deposit products, which increased the expectation of domestic interest rate cuts and led to a slight rebound in the bond market. Overall, the bond market first declined and then rebounded, while ultra - long bonds continued to fall. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds remained stable and was very active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat, and the variety spread narrowed [1][11][37]. - The current bond market is more likely to fluctuate at a low level. The economic stabilization since last Q4 mainly comes from the central government's leverage increase. Considering the low probability of additional treasury bond issuance in Q4 this year, the growth rate of government bond financing is expected to continue to decline, and the domestic economy in Q4 remains under pressure. Also, the absolute level of interest rates is low, the market is desensitized to positive factors, and investor sentiment has recently weakened [2][3][12][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - The A - share market rebounded continuously last week. Vanke's debt extension affected bond market sentiment. On Friday, news of interest rate adjustments increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, causing a slight rebound in the bond market. Overall, ultra - long bonds fell, trading activity was stable and active, the term spread remained flat, and the variety spread narrowed [1][11][37]. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury Bonds**: As of November 30, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 34BP, at a historically low level. In October, the economic downward pressure increased, with GDP growth estimated at about 4.2% year - on - year, a 1.1% decline from September. CPI was 0.2%, and PPI was - 2.1%, indicating deflation risk. The bond market is likely to fluctuate at a low level, and the spread repair is expected to end [2][12]. - **20 - year CDB Bonds**: As of November 30, the spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year treasury bonds was 12BP, at a historically extremely low level. The economic situation in October was similar to that for 30 - year bonds. The bond market is likely to fluctuate at a low level, and the variety spread of 20 - year CDB bonds is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [3][13]. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds is 24.3 trillion. As of November 30, the total amount of ultra - long bonds with a remaining maturity of over 14 years was 243,416 billion (excluding asset - backed securities and project revenue notes), accounting for 15.1% of all bonds. Local government bonds and treasury bonds are the main varieties [14]. - By variety, treasury bonds account for 26.8% (65,243 billion), local government bonds account for 67.8% (165,015 billion), and other varieties account for a small proportion [14]. - By remaining maturity, the 30 - year variety accounts for the highest proportion. The amount in the 14 - 18 - year range is 60,963 billion (25.0%), 18 - 25 - year is 70,852 billion (29.1%), 25 - 35 - year is 97,548 billion (40.1%), and over 35 - year is 14,055 billion (5.8%) [14]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (November 24 - 28, 2025), the issuance of ultra - long bonds increased sharply, with a total issuance of 1,735 billion yuan. Compared with the previous week, the total issuance increased significantly [19]. - By variety, local government bonds issued 1,732 billion yuan, and corporate bonds issued 3 billion yuan, while other varieties issued 0 billion yuan [19]. - By term, 15 - year bonds issued 482 billion yuan, 20 - year bonds issued 367 billion yuan, 30 - year bonds issued 887 billion yuan, and 50 - year bonds issued 0 billion yuan [19]. This Week's Scheduled Issuance - The announced issuance plan for ultra - long bonds this week is 558 billion yuan. Among them, ultra - long treasury bonds are 270 billion yuan, and ultra - long local government bonds are 288 billion yuan [25]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra - long bonds was very active, with a trading volume of 9,136 billion yuan, accounting for 11.3% of all bond trading volume. By variety, ultra - long treasury bonds accounted for 33.9% of all treasury bond trading volume, ultra - long local bonds accounted for 50.3% of all local bond trading volume, ultra - long policy - financial bonds accounted for 0.2% of all policy - financial bond trading volume, and ultra - long government agency bonds accounted for 24.4% of all government agency bond trading volume [27]. - Compared with the previous week, the trading volume of ultra - long bonds decreased by 125 billion yuan, with the proportion remaining unchanged. The trading volume of ultra - long treasury bonds increased by 385 billion yuan, the proportion decreased by 1.8%; the trading volume of ultra - long local bonds decreased by 470 billion yuan, the proportion decreased by 3.4%; the trading volume of ultra - long policy - financial bonds increased by 14 billion yuan, the proportion increased by 0.1%; the trading volume of ultra - long government agency bonds increased by 2 billion yuan, the proportion increased by 11.7% [27]. Yield - Last week, the bond market first declined and then rebounded, and ultra - long bonds continued to fall. For treasury bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, 30 - year, and 50 - year bonds changed by 3BP, 4BP, 3BP, and 5BP to 2.09%, 2.20%, 2.19%, and 2.36% respectively. For CDB bonds, the corresponding yields changed by 3BP, 3BP, 2BP, and 5BP to 2.21%, 2.32%, 2.32%, and 2.49% respectively. For local bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year bonds changed by 5BP, 7BP, and 7BP to 2.33%, 2.41%, and 2.41% respectively. For railway bonds, the yields of 15 - year, 20 - year, and 30 - year bonds changed by 3BP, 4BP, and 4BP to 2.29%, 2.37%, and 2.42% respectively [37]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat, with an absolute low level. The spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 34BP, unchanged from the previous week, at the 15th percentile since 2010 [48]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed, with an absolute low level. The spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and treasury bonds was 12BP, and the spread between 20 - year railway bonds and treasury bonds was 18BP, changing by - 1BP and 0BP respectively from the previous week, at the 10th and 13th percentiles since 2010 [49]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of 30 - year treasury bond futures, TL2603, closed at 114.46 yuan, a decrease of 0.81%. The total trading volume was 92,500 lots (17,365 lots), and the open interest was 147,400 lots (38,082 lots). The trading volume and open interest increased significantly compared with the previous week [54].