Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - As of the end of Q2 2025, there were 2,405 medium - and long - term pure bond funds, accounting for 18.5% of the entire fund market. The issuance heat in Q2 recovered quarter - on - quarter. - The total assets and net assets of medium - and long - term pure bond funds with semi - annual reports disclosed at the end of Q2 2025 increased compared to the end of the previous quarter, and the average scale also recovered. - The average leverage ratio of medium - and long - term pure bond funds increased compared to the end of the previous quarter. - In Q2 2025, the single - quarter average net value growth rate of medium - and long - term pure bonds was 0.98%, and the growth rate recovered compared to the previous quarter. - In asset allocation, bonds accounted for the highest proportion in the allocation of major asset classes, and the proportion of financial bonds and corporate - issued bonds increased in the allocation of specific bond types. - The two medium - and long - term pure bond funds with the highest returns adopted short - duration and ultra - long - duration strategies respectively, both overweighted treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds, and obtained net value returns of 3.4% and 4.6% respectively in the "bullish steepening" trend in Q2 [55]. Summary by Directory 2025 Q2 Medium - and Long - Term Pure Bond Fund Basic Situation - **Issuance Quantity and Scale**: By the end of Q2 2025, there were 2,405 medium - and long - term pure bond funds, accounting for 18.5% of the entire fund market. In Q2, 105 medium - and long - term pure bond funds were issued, with an issuance share of 57 billion, an increase compared to the previous quarter but a decline compared to the same period last year [9]. - **Fund Scale**: As of the end of Q2 2025, the total assets and net assets of medium - and long - term pure bond funds with semi - annual reports disclosed were 80,150 billion yuan and 65,234 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 4,099 billion yuan and 2,890 billion yuan compared to the end of the previous quarter. The average total assets and net assets were 39 billion yuan and 31 billion yuan respectively, a recovery of 1.5 billion yuan and 1.0 billion yuan compared to the end of the previous quarter. Among the 2,078 old medium - and long - term pure bond funds that had announced their performance, 1,392 achieved positive growth in net asset scale in Q2, and the largest increase in net asset scale was Dongfang Zhenbao Pure Bond, with an increase of 12.9 billion yuan [10]. - **Average Leverage Ratio**: At the end of Q2 2025, the average leverage ratio of medium - and long - term pure bond funds under the overall - method caliber was 1.23, an increase of 0.01 compared to the end of the previous quarter. Under the average - method caliber, the average leverage ratio was 1.20, an increase of 0.02 compared to the end of the previous quarter [14]. - **Net Value Growth Rate**: In Q2 2025, the bond market yield declined from a high and then turned to volatility. The 10 - year treasury bond yield fluctuated between 1.62% - 1.81% and closed at 1.65% at the end of Q2. The economic growth in Q2 continued to be stable, with the real GDP in Q2 2025 growing by 5.2% year - on - year. The single - quarter average net value growth rate of medium - and long - term pure bonds in Q2 2025 was 0.98%, and the growth rate recovered compared to the previous quarter. Among the 2,084 funds that disclosed their performance, 2,083 had a positive net value growth rate, accounting for 99.8%, and the net value growth rate in Q2 was mainly distributed between [0,1) and [1,2), accounting for 56.8% and 40.9% respectively [16][18]. 2025 Q2 Medium - and Long - Term Pure Bond Fund Asset Allocation - **Major Asset Allocation**: As of the end of Q2 2025, the total assets of medium - and long - term pure bond funds were 80,150 billion yuan. Bonds accounted for the highest proportion of 97.7%, an increase of 0.3% compared to the previous quarter; bank deposits accounted for 1.0%, a decrease of 0.1% compared to the previous quarter; repurchase assets and other assets accounted for 0.9% and 0.4% of the total assets respectively, with changes of - 0.3% and 0.2% compared to the previous quarter [24]. - **Specific Bond Type Allocation**: As of the end of Q2 2025, the main bond types held by medium - and long - term pure bond funds were interest - rate bonds, financial bonds (excluding policy - financial bonds), and corporate - issued bonds, accounting for 49.6%, 22.3%, and 23.6% of the total bond assets respectively. Compared to the end of the previous quarter, the proportions of interest - rate bonds, financial bonds, and corporate - issued bonds in bond assets changed by - 0.4%, 0.3%, and 0.2% respectively. The proportions of inter - bank certificates of deposit and other bonds changed by - 0.1% and 0.1% respectively, and the proportion of asset - backed securities was basically the same as that of the previous quarter [25]. 2025 Q2 Analysis of High - Performing Funds - **Fund A with the Highest Net Value Return**: Fund A had a high concentration of top - heavy bonds and was flexible in adjustment. In Q2, it significantly reduced its allocation of ultra - long - term treasury bonds. Its net value growth rate in Q2 was 4.6%. In terms of bond - selection strategy, it still overweighted treasury bonds, accounting for about 85.3%, a reduction of about 10% compared to the previous quarter, while increasing the allocation of policy - financial bonds to 14.7%. In terms of duration strategy, its duration dropped significantly from 13.9 years to 1.6 years in Q2, seizing the structural opportunities in Q2. The concentration of its top five heavy - position bonds was high, and the duration was short. The market value of the top five heavy - position bonds in Q2 accounted for 89.8% of the total asset scale, and the first four were treasury bonds with a maturity of less than 2 years, and the fifth was a 10 - year CDB bond. Compared to the previous quarter, it significantly reduced its allocation of 30 - year treasury bonds and significantly increased its allocation of short - term treasury bonds [37][42]. - **Fund B with the Second - Highest Net Value Return**: Fund B adopted a strategy of extending duration, and the concentration of its heavy - position bonds was high. Its net value growth rate in Q2 was 3.4%. In terms of bond - type allocation strategy, it also focused on treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds, and increased its allocation of treasury bonds to 85.6% in Q2, while the allocation ratio of policy - financial bonds dropped from 33.6% to 14.4%. In terms of duration strategy, its duration extended from 16.1 years to 20.0 years in Q2. The concentration of its top five heavy - position bonds was also high and focused on long - duration interest - rate bonds. The market value of the top five heavy - position bonds in Q2 accounted for 89.1% of the total asset scale, and four of the top five were 30 - year treasury bonds, and the third was a 20 - year policy - financial bond. Compared to the previous quarter, it significantly increased its allocation of 30 - year treasury bonds and 20 - year policy - financial bonds, significantly reduced its allocation of 10 - year policy - financial bonds, and significantly extended the duration [46][48].

Industry and Company Insights - The pharmaceutical sector outperformed the overall market, with a 4.00% increase in the biopharmaceutical sector, driven by a 6.86% rise in the chemical pharmaceutical segment [8][9] - China National Pharmaceutical plans to acquire Lixin Pharmaceutical for a valuation of $1 billion, enhancing its technological platform and international capabilities [9][10] - The electric power equipment and new energy sector is optimistic about the establishment of China Fusion Energy Co., which has attracted investments totaling 11.5 billion yuan [11] - The food and beverage sector saw a decrease in fund holdings in the liquor segment, while the consumer goods segment experienced slight increases [12][14] - The automotive industry reported a 13.8% year-on-year increase in sales, with new energy vehicles accounting for 45.8% of total new car sales in June 2025 [15][16] Financial Engineering - The public FOF fund market saw a 10.01% increase in total scale, reaching 166.198 billion yuan by Q2 2025, with a median return of 2.62% for equity-focused FOFs [24][25] - The number of FOF products reached 518, with a significant portion allocated to equity and balanced funds [24][25] Company-Specific Analysis - Keda Li (002850.SZ) reported a net profit of 750-820 million yuan for H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 16%-27% [22] - TBEA (600089.SH) is expected to benefit from the coal industry's recovery due to a recent government initiative to stabilize coal supply and pricing [23]

- The total number of FOF products established in the market by the end of Q2 2025 reached 518, with a combined scale of 1661.98 billion RMB, marking a 10.01% increase compared to Q1 2025[2][12][71] - FOFs are categorized into three types based on their equity asset penetration ratio: debt-oriented FOFs (less than 30%), balanced FOFs (30%-60%), and equity-oriented FOFs (greater than 60%)[13][71] - The scale of debt-oriented FOFs in Q2 2025 was 920.91 billion RMB, accounting for 55.41% of the total, followed by equity-oriented FOFs at 416.52 billion RMB and balanced FOFs at 324.54 billion RMB[13][71] - The median returns for Q2 2025 were 1.20% for debt-oriented FOFs, 1.76% for balanced FOFs, and 2.62% for equity-oriented FOFs[2][24][71] - The equity penetration ratio of FOFs is calculated using the formula: $W=\sum_{i}Fund_{i}\times Fund_{-}Stock_{i}+Stock$ where $Fund_{i}$ represents the scale of fund i as a proportion of net value, $Fund_{-}Stock_{i}$ represents the stock investment value of fund i as a proportion of its net value, and $Stock$ represents the direct stock investment value of the FOF as a proportion of net value[12] - The top three actively managed equity funds most heavily allocated by FOFs in Q2 2025 were Dachen Gaoxin A, Fuguo Wenjian Growth A, and Bodao Growth Zhihang C, with Dachen Gaoxin A being the largest in terms of scale at 3.88 billion RMB[32][33][34] - The top three passive index equity funds most heavily allocated by FOFs were Huaxia Hang Seng Technology ETF, Fuguo China Internet ETF, and Huaxia Hang Seng ETF, with Huaxia Hang Seng ETF having the largest scale at 8.35 billion RMB[36][38] - The top three enhanced index funds most heavily allocated by FOFs were Zhaoshang CSI 300 Enhanced C, Zhaoshang CSI 1000 Enhanced A, and Huitianfu CSI 300 Enhanced A, with Huitianfu CSI 300 Enhanced A having the largest scale at 0.98 billion RMB[37][39] - The top three bond funds most heavily allocated by FOFs were Yifangda Suifeng Tianli A, Guangfa Pure Bond A, and Yifangda Credit Bond A, with Boshi Credit Preferred A having the largest scale at 11.26 billion RMB[40][41] - The top three "fixed income+" funds most heavily allocated by FOFs were Huatai Baoxing Zunhe A, Anxin Target Income A, and Xibulide Huixiang A, with Yifangda Yuxiang Huibao A having the largest scale at 6.36 billion RMB[42][46] - The formula for estimating the net increase in FOF holdings of a fund is: $\Delta N=\sum_{i}I_{i}$ where $I_{i}=1$ if the investment share increased, $I_{i}=-1$ if it decreased, and $I_{i}=0$ if unchanged[44][45] - The formula for estimating the net increase in FOF investment scale in a fund is: $\Delta MV=\sum_{i}\Delta uv\times\Delta Share_{i}$ where $\Delta uv$ represents the average daily net value of the fund during the period, and $\Delta Share_{i}$ represents the change in investment shares[45] - The top three actively managed equity funds with the highest estimated net increase in FOF holdings in Q2 2025 were Dachen Gaoxin A, Huashang Yuanjian Value C, and Qianhai Kaiyuan Gold and Jewelry A[43][47] - The top three bond funds with the highest estimated net increase in FOF holdings in Q2 2025 were Xingquan Wentai A, Huatai Baorui Jiji Red A, and Fuguo Industry Bond A[48][50] - The top three actively managed equity fund managers most allocated by FOFs in Q2 2025 were Liu Xu (Dachen Fund), Fan Yan (Fuguo Fund), and Xu Yan (Dachen Fund)[51][54] - The top three "fixed income+" fund managers most allocated by FOFs in Q2 2025 were Wang Xiaochen (Yifangda Fund), Peng Chengjun (Jingshun Changcheng Fund), and Zhang Ting (Huatai Baoxing Fund)[53][55] - A total of 149 FOFs directly invested in stocks by Q2 2025, with balanced FOFs having the highest proportion of stock investments at 32.26%, followed by equity-oriented FOFs at 30.46%[59][61] - The top three stocks most heavily allocated by FOFs in Q2 2025 were Ningde Times, Changjiang Electric Power, and Zijin Mining, with Ningde Times having the largest scale at 0.98 billion RMB[62][66]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the AI application industry [1] Core Insights - The capabilities of AI models are rapidly improving, driven by open-source initiatives that lower costs. Large models have achieved new heights in knowledge Q&A, mathematics, and programming, surpassing human-level performance in various tasks. The introduction of high-performance open-source models like Llama 3.1 and DeepSeek R1 has narrowed the gap between open-source and closed-source models [2][5] - AI agents are becoming more sophisticated, with a surge in new product releases. These agents can perceive their environment, make decisions, and execute actions, enhancing their functionality through the integration of external tools and services [2][30] - The commercial use of AI is on the rise, with significant growth in usage and performance of domestic models. The gap between top models in China and the US is closing, supported by a continuous increase in global AI model traffic [2][50] - AI applications are reshaping traffic entry points, with traditional internet giants leveraging proprietary data and user engagement to integrate AI functionalities into existing applications [2][50] - The open-source movement is increasing investment willingness and accelerating cloud adoption among enterprises, as the proliferation of development tools lowers industry application barriers [2][50] Summary by Sections Model Layer: Rapid Capability Enhancement and Cost Reduction - The mainstream model architecture is shifting towards MoE, allowing for more efficient resource use while enhancing performance. Models like DeepSeek-V3 and Llama 4 have demonstrated low-cost, high-performance capabilities [8][9] - The multi-modal capabilities of models have significantly improved, enabling them to process various data types, thus expanding application scenarios [8][9] - The introduction of chain-of-thought reasoning techniques has improved the accuracy and reliability of model responses [8][9] Commercialization: Continuous Growth in Usage and Strong Performance of Domestic Models - The competition among vendors has led to a significant decrease in inference costs, benefiting application developers and end-users [21][22] - The API call prices for major models have dropped substantially, with some models seeing reductions of up to 88% [21][22] AI Agents: Technological Advancements and Product Releases - AI agents are evolving from traditional models to more autonomous entities capable of independent decision-making and task execution [30][31] - The introduction of protocols like MCP and A2A is enhancing the capabilities and interoperability of AI agents, facilitating complex task execution across different systems [38][39] C-end Applications: AI Empowering Business and Reshaping Traffic Entry - AI applications are expected to redefine traffic entry points, with major players actively positioning themselves in this space [2][50] B-end Applications: Open-source Enhancing Investment Willingness and Cloud Adoption - The development of open-source tools is significantly lowering the barriers for industry applications, accelerating the intelligent transformation of various sectors [2][50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the automotive industry [1][4][5]. Core Views - The automotive industry is experiencing a significant transformation driven by electrification, intelligence, and connectivity, with a focus on new energy vehicles (NEVs) and smart technologies [12][13]. - The report highlights the strong sales growth in June 2025, with total vehicle sales reaching 2.904 million units, a year-on-year increase of 13.8% [1][21]. - The report emphasizes the potential of domestic brands and the opportunities in incremental components due to the rise of electric and intelligent vehicles [12][24]. Monthly Sales Data - In June 2025, total vehicle sales were 2.904 million units, with NEV sales reaching 1.329 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.7% [1][21]. - Retail sales of passenger cars in June 2025 were 2.084 million units, showing a year-on-year growth of 18.1% [1][21]. Weekly Data - For the week of July 7-13, 2025, domestic passenger car registrations were 370,200 units, a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [2]. - The automotive sector index increased by 3.22% during the week of July 14-18, 2025, outperforming major indices [2][5]. Key Company Earnings Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Leap Motor (9863.HK) is rated "Outperform" with an estimated EPS of -0.05 for 2025 [4]. - Geely (0175.HK) is rated "Outperform" with an estimated EPS of 1.36 for 2025 [4]. - JAC Motors (600418.SH) is rated "Outperform" with an estimated EPS of 0.11 for 2025 [4]. - Horizon Robotics (9660.HK) is rated "Outperform" with an estimated EPS of -0.14 for 2025 [4]. - Top Group (601689.SH) is rated "Outperform" with an estimated EPS of 2.04 for 2025 [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on domestic brands and the opportunities in incremental components, particularly in the context of electrification and intelligence [12][24]. - Specific recommendations include: - Vehicle manufacturers: Leap Motor, Geely, JAC Motors [12][24]. - Intelligent components: Kobot, Huayang Group, Junsheng Electronics [12][24]. - Robotics: Top Group, Sanhua Intelligent Control, Shuanghuan Transmission [12][24]. - Domestic alternatives: Xingyu, Fuyao Glass, Jifeng [12][24].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for TBEA Co., Ltd. (600089.SH) is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][8]. Core Views - The recent notice from the National Energy Administration regarding coal mine production capacity checks is seen as a measure to alleviate supply-demand imbalances in the coal industry, which is expected to promote profit recovery for coal companies. TBEA's coal business is anticipated to benefit from the stabilization of coal prices in Xinjiang [2][8]. - The profit forecasts for TBEA for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards to 6.37 billion, 8.10 billion, and 9.79 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 54.0%, 27.3%, and 20.8%. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 11.8, 9.3, and 7.7 for the respective years [2][8]. Summary by Sections Recent Developments - The National Energy Administration issued a notice to conduct coal mine production checks to ensure stable coal supply and orderly production. The checks will cover eight provinces, including Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, focusing on whether coal production exceeds announced capacities [2][3]. Financial Performance - TBEA's coal business in Xinjiang is part of a significant coal base, with a certified production capacity of 74 million tons per year. The revenue from the coal business for 2024 is projected to be 19.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, with a gross margin of 32.4%, down 14 percentage points due to a decrease in coal sales prices [7][8]. Profit Forecasts - The updated profit forecasts for TBEA are as follows: - 2025: 6.37 billion yuan - 2026: 8.10 billion yuan - 2027: 9.79 billion yuan - These figures represent significant year-on-year growth rates of 54.0%, 27.3%, and 20.8% respectively [2][8]. Market Valuation - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 11.8 for 2025, 9.3 for 2026, and 7.7 for 2027, indicating a favorable valuation compared to expected earnings growth [2][8].

Investment Rating - The food and beverage industry maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating [4][5][37] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage industry has a fund holding ratio of 6.2%, which is a decrease of 1.86 percentage points from the previous quarter, ranking fifth among Shenwan's primary industries. The overall overweight ratio for the industry is 1.37%, which has decreased by 1.34 percentage points [1][12] - The liquor sector remains the most heavily weighted, but its overweight ratio has declined, while the consumer goods sector has seen an increase in fund holdings [2][17] Summary by Sections Fund Holdings Analysis - In Q2 2025, the liquor sector's fund holding ratio decreased by 2.07 percentage points to 4.5%, with an overweight ratio down by 1.52 percentage points to 1.35%. Excluding Moutai, the liquor sector's fund holding ratio fell by 1.61 percentage points to 2.61% [2][17] - The consumer goods sector saw increases in fund holdings for soft drinks, snacks, and condiments, with the soft drink sector's fund holding ratio rising by 0.15 percentage points to 0.41% [2][18] Individual Stock Performance - Major liquor stocks such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye saw a decrease in the number of funds holding their shares, with Moutai's holding ratio dropping to 1.88% and Wuliangye's to 0.89% [29][30] - In contrast, stocks like Dongpeng Beverage and Yanjing Beer received increased allocations, with Dongpeng's holding ratio rising to 0.35% [29][30]

Key Insights - The report focuses on the sportswear industry, particularly analyzing the product cycles of major brands like Nike, Adidas, and Asics, highlighting the significant performance divergence among these brands post-pandemic [7][11] - The sportswear market is projected to reach approximately $400 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8%, indicating a stable growth trend despite varying brand performances [7] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of product cycles in driving brand performance, suggesting that investment strategies should focus on identifying key marketing events that signal new product cycles [11] Industry and Company Analysis Nike - Nike's stock price experienced a significant increase from 2019 to 2021 due to steady performance driven by technological innovation and popular products, but faced a downturn in 2022-2023 due to supply chain disruptions and inventory issues [8] - The brand's over-reliance on classic models and slow commercialization of new technologies has raised concerns about its future performance, with a notable decline in Google search interest indicating potential challenges ahead [8][11] - Nike is expected to revitalize its brand through enhanced sports marketing and new product launches, showing early signs of recovery [8] Adidas - Adidas has successfully navigated challenges post-pandemic, with a strategic shift in product offerings leading to a significant stock price recovery, particularly through the introduction of retro styles and localized strategies [9] - The brand's marketing expenditure is planned to remain at 12%, focusing on optimizing regional advertising efficiency [9] - The successful transition from Yeezy to other product lines has been pivotal in driving growth, with a notable increase in consumer interest preceding stock price recovery [9] Asics - Asics has seen a remarkable stock price increase, driven by strong revenue growth and improved profit margins, with expectations of doubling revenue from 2019 to 2025 [10] - The brand's focus on professional running shoes and the establishment of a running ecosystem have contributed to its profitability, alongside successful product launches that resonate with current trends [10] - Asics has maintained a lower marketing spend compared to its competitors while effectively leveraging sponsorships and collaborations to enhance brand visibility [10] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to monitor the product cycles of these sportswear brands closely, particularly looking for signs of new product introductions and marketing strategies that could drive future performance [11] - The report suggests a favorable outlook for domestic brands like Anta Sports and Li Ning, which are positioned to capitalize on market trends and consumer preferences [12] - The analysis highlights the potential of brands like Xtep International and the positive impact of celebrity endorsements on brand visibility and sales [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electric equipment and new energy industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1]. Core Insights - On July 22, China Fusion Energy Co., Ltd. was established with a total investment of 11.5 billion RMB from various stakeholders, marking a significant step in advancing fusion energy technology in China [2]. - The company will focus on overall design, technology verification, and digital R&D, aiming to build a technology research platform and a capital operation platform [2]. - The capital injection will be used for the construction of the technology research platform and integration of the industrial chain [2]. Company Summaries - **Jinbei Electric**: A leader in ultra-high voltage electromagnetic wire, with products used in nuclear fission projects. The company has developed a fourth-generation ultra-high temperature electromagnetic wire, ending reliance on imports in this field [2]. - **Guangda Special Materials**: A top domestic enterprise in special steel materials and wind power castings, with a strong technical foundation. The company supplies materials for superconducting coil armor and has successfully delivered low-activation martensitic steel [2]. - **Xuji Electric**: A leading enterprise in ultra-high voltage converter valves, with deep expertise in power electronics technology. The company has capabilities in new magnetic field power supply projects for magnetic confinement fusion [2]. - **Dongfang Electric**: A major energy equipment R&D and manufacturing group in China, successfully developing the first batch of blanket shielding modules for the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) [2]. - **Shanghai Electric**: The largest comprehensive equipment manufacturing group in China, with a complete nuclear energy equipment manufacturing industry chain covering various nuclear power technologies [3]. Financial Forecasts - **Jinbei Electric**: Market capitalization of 7.6 billion RMB, with projected net profits of 570 million RMB in 2024, increasing to 770 million RMB by 2026 [5]. - **Guangda Special Materials**: Market capitalization of 6.6 billion RMB, with projected net profits of 110 million RMB in 2024, increasing to 410 million RMB by 2026 [5]. - **Xuji Electric**: Market capitalization of 25.3 billion RMB, with projected net profits of 1.12 billion RMB in 2024, increasing to 1.88 billion RMB by 2026 [5]. - **Dongfang Electric**: Market capitalization of 73.2 billion RMB, with projected net profits of 2.92 billion RMB in 2024, increasing to 5.52 billion RMB by 2026 [5].