Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a rare asset in the AI for Science sector, aiming to disrupt traditional R&D paradigms and unlock significant market potential [1][14]. - The company has achieved a revenue milestone that qualifies it for commercial status on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a projected revenue growth of 52.75% year-on-year in 2024 [8][14]. - The company is leveraging a strong scientific team, including over 500 scientists, to build a robust data moat and enhance its R&D capabilities [8][14]. Summary by Sections 1. AI for Science as a Rare Asset - The company was founded in 2015 and integrates quantum physics with AI and robotics to provide innovative R&D solutions in pharmaceuticals and materials science [14]. - It has attracted significant investment, raising approximately $732 million, and ranks first among AI-enabled drug discovery companies globally as of December 31, 2023 [17][19]. 2. AI Solutions and Automation Industry - The AI solutions market is expected to grow significantly, particularly in healthcare and materials science, driven by the need for efficient data processing and decision-making [26][30]. - The global automation market is rapidly expanding, with laboratory automation penetration projected to rise from 3.7% in 2022 to 23.2% by 2030 [27][30]. 3. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 426.13 million RMB in 2025, 682.64 million RMB in 2026, and 1,095.22 million RMB in 2027, with a projected return to profitability in 2027 [1][8]. - The adjusted net loss is expected to narrow significantly, from 1.52 billion RMB in 2024 to a profit of 42.31 million RMB in 2027 [1][8]. 4. Data and Technological Moat - The company has built a comprehensive data infrastructure, including over 6.5 million high-precision quantitative data points and 100,000 molecular force field parameters, creating a significant barrier to entry [8][14]. - The integration of AI and robotics in its operations allows for a closed-loop system in both dry and wet experiments, enhancing efficiency and data generation [8][14]. 5. Collaborative Pipeline and Market Expansion - The company is advancing multiple collaborative drug pipelines, including a key product in clinical trials for treating advanced solid tumors, and is expanding into new materials and sectors [8][14]. - A recent partnership with a major group is expected to contribute approximately 1 billion RMB to the company's revenue over five years [8][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the environmental protection industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights the collaboration between Qiaoyin Co. and Guodi Center to advance humanoid robot applications in urban services, marking a significant development in the industry [9] - It emphasizes that the solid waste sector is experiencing a decrease in capital expenditure, leading to improved free cash flow and increased dividends, while also enhancing return on equity (ROE) through efficiency improvements in heating and IDC [10][12] - The water services sector is noted for its stable growth and high dividends, with water price reforms expected to reshape growth and valuation [12][14] Summary by Sections Humanoid Robot Development - Qiaoyin Co. has signed a cooperation agreement with Guodi Center to launch humanoid robots for urban services, with an initial order of 1,000 robots aimed at street cleaning and maintenance [9] Solid Waste Management - The report identifies two key trends: a reduction in capital expenditure leading to improved free cash flow and increased dividends, and a focus on efficiency improvements as the industry matures [10] - Specific dividend forecasts for 2024 include: - Junxin Co.: cash dividend of 507 million yuan (+37%), dividend ratio of 94.59% (+22.78 percentage points), and a dividend yield of 4.4% - Green Power: cash dividend of 418 million yuan (+100%), dividend ratio of 71.45% (+38.23 percentage points), with A-share and Hong Kong stock dividend yields of 4.2% and 8.2% respectively - Hanlan Environment: proposed dividend of 652 million yuan (+67%), dividend ratio of 39.20% (+11.83 percentage points), and a dividend yield of 3.5% [10] Water Services - The water services sector is projected to see stable growth, with 2024 revenues of 65.5 billion yuan (-2%) and net profits of 11.2 billion yuan (+27%), excluding one-time gains [12] - Water price reforms in Guangzhou and Shenzhen are expected to drive a new round of price adjustments, enhancing profitability and stability [13][14] Industry Trends - The report notes a 51% increase in sales of new energy sanitation vehicles in the first quarter of 2025, with penetration rates rising to 14.36% [29] - The bio-diesel market is experiencing a decline in prices for both bio-diesel and waste oil, leading to a narrowing price gap [36] - The lithium battery recycling sector is facing slight declines in profitability due to fluctuating metal prices and discount coefficients [39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the construction and decoration industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The construction and decoration sector is expected to benefit from ongoing incremental policies, with a focus on the actual implementation of construction projects [1] - The overseas contracting business in China is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 3.1% year-on-year in 2024, with new contract amounts increasing by 1.1%, reaching a historical high [2][11] - The report highlights opportunities in specialized manufacturing engineering sectors, prefabricated buildings, energy conservation, and carbon reduction, suggesting that companies with relevant transformation strategies may benefit [2][11] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Recent financial policies announced by the State Council aim to stabilize market expectations, including interest rate cuts and measures to support key sectors like technology innovation and real estate [5][13] - The construction PMI showed a decline in April, indicating weak project expectations, while infrastructure investment growth was reported at 5.8% year-on-year in the first quarter [10][11] Overseas Expansion - The report emphasizes the potential for increased cooperation in the Belt and Road Initiative, particularly with Europe and ASEAN countries, following recent diplomatic visits by President Xi Jinping [2][11] - Companies such as China National Materials International and Shanghai Port Construction are recommended for their potential in the international engineering sector [2][11] Demand Structure - There are promising developments in demand structure, particularly in segments related to prefabricated buildings and cleanroom construction for semiconductors, which are expected to maintain a favorable market outlook [2][11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a rare asset in the AI for Science sector, aiming to disrupt traditional R&D paradigms and unlock significant market potential [1][14]. - The company has achieved a revenue milestone that qualifies it as a commercial entity under Hong Kong Stock Exchange rules, with a notable reduction in net losses [8][14]. - The integration of dry and wet lab experiments creates a data barrier that strengthens the company's competitive moat [8][14]. - The company is making progress in its collaborative drug pipeline and expanding its client base in new materials and other sectors [8][14]. - Short-term growth is driven by policy incentives, while long-term growth is supported by customer retention and successful project incubation [8][14]. Summary by Sections 1. AI for Science as a Rare Asset - The company, founded in 2015, leverages quantum physics and AI to provide innovative R&D solutions across pharmaceuticals and materials science [14]. - The founding team consists of MIT-trained scientists, enhancing the company's R&D capabilities [8][14]. - The company has raised approximately $732 million from global investors, establishing itself as a leader in AI-enabled drug discovery [17][19]. 2. AI Solutions and Automation Industry - The AI solutions market is expected to grow significantly, particularly in healthcare and materials science [26][30]. - The global automation market is rapidly expanding, with laboratory automation penetration projected to increase from 3.7% in 2022 to 23.2% by 2030 [27][30]. - The convergence of data growth, labor cost increases, and technological integration is driving the growth of AI solutions and automation [34]. 3. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of RMB 4.26 billion, RMB 6.83 billion, and RMB 10.95 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a projected return to profitability by 2027 [1][8]. - The adjusted net loss is expected to narrow significantly over the forecast period, indicating improving financial health [1][8]. 4. Market Trends and Opportunities - The AI drug discovery market is anticipated to grow from RMB 2.76 billion in 2022 to RMB 67.7 billion by 2025, driven by advancements in technology and increased collaboration [41][42]. - The solid-state R&D services market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 27.7%, reaching $20.9 billion by 2030 [52].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the construction and decoration industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The construction and decoration sector is expected to benefit from ongoing incremental policies, with a focus on the actual implementation of construction projects [1] - The overseas contracting business in China is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 3.1% year-on-year in 2024, with new contract amounts increasing by 1.1%, reaching a historical high [2][11] - The report highlights the positive demand structure and investment opportunities arising from new business developments in specialized manufacturing, prefabricated buildings, energy conservation, and carbon reduction [2][11] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Recent financial policies announced by the State Council aim to stabilize market expectations, including interest rate cuts and measures to support key sectors like technology innovation and real estate [13] - The construction PMI showed a decline in April, indicating weak project expectations, while infrastructure investment maintained a year-on-year growth rate of 5.8% in the first quarter [10][13] Overseas Expansion - The report emphasizes the potential for increased cooperation in the Belt and Road Initiative, particularly with Europe and ASEAN countries, following recent diplomatic visits by President Xi Jinping [2][11] - Companies such as China National Materials International and Shanghai Port Construction are recommended for their potential benefits from overseas engineering demand [2][11] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies with transformation layouts in high-demand sectors, such as prefabricated buildings and semiconductor clean rooms, with specific recommendations for Honglu Steel Structure and Asia Xiang Integration [2][11] - Infrastructure leaders and local state-owned enterprises are highlighted as having opportunities for valuation recovery due to their stable performance [10][11]

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 宏观深度报告 20250512 新动能驱动"科特估"为资本市场"排头兵" [Table_Summary] ◼ 新旧动能转换下，内需扩张迫在眉睫： 关税战是一场遭遇战、持久战，全球需求承压："遭遇战"之下，各国 的应对方式和手段在贸易战后期的很长一段时间内都将影响各自经济 增长的实际走向。中美的"大国之争"在美国内在经济问题和全球经济 增长问题暂未得到明显缓解之前仍将持续，"关税战"可能将是一场"持 久战"，作为以打促谈的手段，关税的议题可能将贯穿较长的时间周期。 关税战不仅是短期的贸易摩擦，更对全球经济结构造成深远影响，进一 步抑制全球投资与消费需求。 科技产业经济占比提升，经济新动能打开内需新市场：截至 2024 年底， 数字经济核心产业增加值占国内生产总值比重 10%左右。2022 年，中 国的 KTI 制造业产出比 2012 年翻了一倍多，全球份额从 2012 年的 22% 增至 2022 年的 34%。数字经济技术应用和数字产品制造是引领当前经 济发展的主要方向，也是激发内需潜力、驱动产业创新、塑造发展新优 势的主要抓手，而科技相关服务业目前占比相对低，与海外主流 ...

Group 1: Bond Issuance Overview - In the first four months of 2025, local state-owned enterprises (SOEs) issued a total of CNY 21,203.51 billion in public credit bonds, a year-on-year decrease of 17.47%[7] - Of the total bond issuance, 88.01% (CNY 18,661.92 billion) was used to repay existing debt, which is an increase of 0.47 percentage points compared to the previous year[7] - The proportion of bonds issued for project construction increased slightly to 2.40%, up 0.17 percentage points year-on-year, despite a decrease in absolute terms to CNY 508.95 billion[14] Group 2: Investment Focus Shift - The issuance of bonds for equity or fund investments increased by 31.41%, while funding for infrastructure or real estate projects decreased by 47.85%[15] - In the first four months of 2025, CNY 250.74 billion was allocated to "innovation sector investments," accounting for nearly 50% of the total new bond issuance, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16%[20] - The shift towards innovation sector investments may lead to discrepancies between fixed asset investment data and high-frequency indicators like construction materials and machinery[24] Group 3: Risk Considerations - There are potential inaccuracies in the categorization of the use of funds from public credit bonds issued by local SOEs[27] - Some bonds may not disclose their fundraising purposes, which could distort the statistical results presented in the report[27] - The analysis may not fully capture private bond information from local SOEs that do not undergo public disclosure, potentially affecting the accuracy of the conclusions drawn[27]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is raising 500 million RMB through a directed issuance, fully subscribed by the actual controller, indicating strong confidence in the company's future [7] - The clinical pipeline is progressing smoothly with multiple catalysts on the horizon, including the initiation of Phase II clinical trials for BGM0504, which shows promising weight loss results compared to competitors [7] - The company is developing an oral formulation of BGM0504, which is rare in the market and could enhance patient compliance and safety [7] - Financial forecasts remain stable, with expected net profits of 262 million RMB in 2025 and 303 million RMB in 2026, leading to a P/E valuation of 83 and 72 times respectively [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to reach 1,283 million RMB in 2024, with a growth rate of 8.74% [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 262 million RMB in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 38.45% [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.62 RMB in 2025, with a P/E ratio of 82.83 [8] - The company's total assets are estimated to be 5,283 million RMB in 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 50.24% [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is raising 500 million RMB through a directed issuance, fully subscribed by the actual controller, indicating strong confidence in the company's future [7] - The clinical pipeline is progressing smoothly with multiple catalysts on the horizon, including the initiation of Phase II clinical trials for BGM0504, which shows promising weight loss results compared to competitors [7] - The company is developing an oral formulation of BGM0504, which is rare in the market and could enhance patient compliance and safety [7] - Financial forecasts remain stable, with expected net profits of 262 million RMB in 2025 and 303 million RMB in 2026, leading to a P/E valuation of 83 and 72 times respectively [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to reach 1,283 million RMB in 2024, with a growth rate of 8.74% [8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 262 million RMB in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 38.45% [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.62 RMB in 2025, with a P/E ratio of 82.83 [8] - The company’s total assets are estimated to be 5,283 million RMB in 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 50.24% [8]

Macro Strategy - The report analyzes the low consumption rate in China compared to 38 countries, indicating that while disposable income is relatively high, the consumption tendency is low, suggesting that the majority of residents have a willingness to consume but lack the ability to do so [1][11][12] - China's consumption rate is only 37.2%, which is 16.6 percentage points lower than the average of 53.8% among the 38 countries [11] - The report emphasizes the need to increase the income of the middle and low-income groups to stimulate consumption, as the current tax burden on these groups is low, which does not favor consumption [1][12] Fixed Income - Following the recent interest rate cuts, short-term interest rates have decreased while long-term rates have increased, indicating a market adjustment to the new monetary policy [5][17] - The report suggests that the long-term interest rate trend remains downward, but the market has overreacted to the rate cut expectations, requiring time for adjustment [5][17] - The current yield curve indicates a reasonable spread between 10-year and 1-year government bonds, suggesting potential investment opportunities in the bond market [5][17] Industry Insights - The report highlights the recent developments in BoRui Pharmaceutical, which is raising 500 million yuan through a private placement, with the controlling shareholder fully subscribing, indicating strong confidence in the company's pipeline [6] - The company is advancing its clinical trials for BGM0504, which shows promising results compared to its competitors, suggesting a potential competitive edge in the market [6] - The report also discusses Kangnong Agriculture's expansion in the Huanghuaihai region, projecting steady growth in profits for 2025 and 2026 due to increased sales [7][8] Communication Industry - Shengke Communication reported a revenue of 1.08 billion yuan in 2024, with a focus on high-end product development and cost optimization, leading to improved gross margins [9] - The company is increasing its R&D investment significantly, which is expected to drive future growth and align with the domestic demand for high-end networking products [9][10] - The report notes that the company has successfully entered the supply chains of major domestic network equipment manufacturers, indicating a strong market position [9]