Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the semiconductor equipment and components industry, highlighting the acceleration of domestic substitution under the trend of self-control [2][3]. Core Viewpoints - The semiconductor equipment sector continues to experience high revenue growth, with a notable increase in profitability. The selected 14 semiconductor equipment companies achieved total revenues of 732.2 billion and 177.4 billion yuan for 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 33% and 37% [2][7]. - The report emphasizes the trend of domestic substitution in semiconductor equipment and components, driven by the expansion of advanced logic and memory manufacturers, as well as the increasing demand for domestic equipment [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Semiconductor Equipment - Revenue: The semiconductor equipment sector maintained high growth, with total revenues of 732.2 billion yuan in 2024 and 177.4 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting year-on-year increases of 33% and 37% [2][7]. - Profit: The total net profit attributable to shareholders for the semiconductor equipment companies was 119.0 billion yuan in 2024 and 25.8 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with year-on-year growth of 15% and 37% [12][16]. - Orders: The total contract liabilities for semiconductor equipment companies reached 192.1 billion yuan in 2024 and 199.1 billion yuan in Q1 2025, indicating a year-on-year increase of 14.1% and 6.3% [34]. 2. Semiconductor Components - Revenue: The four selected semiconductor component companies achieved total revenues of 113.4 billion yuan in 2024 and 24.7 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with year-on-year growth of 9% and a decline of 6% [52][57]. - Profit: The total net profit attributable to shareholders for the semiconductor component companies was 16.1 billion yuan in 2024 and 2.0 billion yuan in Q1 2025, showing a decline of 5% and 45% year-on-year [57][63]. - Cash Flow: The operating cash flow for the semiconductor component companies improved significantly in 2024, with a net cash flow of 10.9 billion yuan, but faced short-term pressure in Q1 2025 with a net cash flow of 2.6 billion yuan [62][66]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on platform-based equipment manufacturers such as North China Huachuang and Zhongwei Company, as well as component manufacturers like Xinlai and Fuchuang Precision [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the insurance industry [1] Core Insights - The evolution of life insurance products in the UK, US, and Japan highlights a shift towards health and annuity insurance, driven by demographic changes and economic factors [2][5][33] - The US life insurance market has seen a significant increase in market share, with life insurance premium income rising from $542.9 billion in 2000 to $685.9 billion in 2023, reflecting a compound growth rate of 1.0% [14][20] - In Japan, the life insurance market is transitioning towards health insurance, with a notable increase in the demand for medical and cancer insurance products due to an aging population [36][39] Summary by Sections 1. US Life Insurance Market - The US life insurance market's share of global premiums increased from 18.7% in 2010 to 23.9% in 2022, with a stable share above 20% since 2019 [11] - Life insurance density in the US rose from $1,504 per person in 2010 to $2,017 in 2022, while the depth decreased from 3.1% to 2.6% during the same period [11][13] - Annuity insurance has become the primary source of premium income, accounting for over 50% of the market, while health insurance is experiencing rapid growth [19][21] 2. Japanese Life Insurance Market - Japan's life insurance density and depth have declined from $3,445 per person and 7.5% in 2010 to $1,942 and 5.9% in 2022, respectively [33] - The demand for health insurance products has surged, with medical and cancer insurance policies growing significantly due to an aging population [36][39] - The evolution of life insurance products in Japan is influenced by economic conditions, demographic changes, and regulatory policies [39][48] 3. UK Life Insurance Market - The UK life insurance market has a rich history of product innovation, with a current focus on annuity products due to increasing life expectancy and regulatory changes [2][3] - The market remains stable, with a diverse range of products, primarily driven by economic development, population aging, and tax incentives [2][3][5]

Macro Strategy - The recent US-China trade negotiations have led to a significant reduction in tariffs, with the highest tariffs dropping from 145% to 30% before May 14, and a complete cancellation of 91% of retaliatory tariffs, reducing export uncertainties [1][12] - The progress in trade talks is attributed to increasing political and economic pressures within the US, with expectations for a comprehensive trade framework agreement to be reached within the year [1][12] - The US's demand for tariff reductions is more urgent compared to China's, as evidenced by a 14% month-on-month increase in the US trade deficit in March and record-high consumer goods imports [1][12] Industry Insights - The report highlights a shift in local state-owned enterprises' bond financing from infrastructure and real estate projects to technology innovation, with a 31.41% increase in bond issuance for equity or fund investments and a 47.85% decrease for infrastructure or real estate projects [4][17] - The technology sector is becoming a focal point for investment, with local state-owned enterprises increasingly directing funds towards innovation and technology projects, indicating a broader trend of "export to domestic sales" as domestic products gain market share due to tariff impacts [4][17] - The report emphasizes the growing importance of technology-driven sectors in China's economy, with digital economy core industries expected to contribute around 10% to GDP by the end of 2024, reflecting a significant increase in the share of technology in economic growth [1][15] Company Highlights - JingTai Holdings is identified as a key player in the AI for Science sector, with a strong research team and significant revenue growth, achieving 266 million RMB in 2024, a 53% increase year-on-year [9] - The company has made substantial progress in its drug development pipeline, including a collaboration with SigGen Bio for a dual-target inhibitor now in clinical trials, showcasing its innovative capabilities in the pharmaceutical sector [9] - BoRui Pharmaceutical is also highlighted for its strategic fundraising efforts, with a total of 500 million RMB raised through a directed issuance, and promising clinical trial results for its weight loss drug BGM0504, which shows superior efficacy compared to competitors [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the real estate industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The recent reduction in public housing loan rates is expected to stabilize the market gradually, with a projected annual savings of over 20 billion yuan in loan interest for residents [1][8] - The report highlights that the current policy environment recognizes the necessity of a stable and healthy real estate market for economic transformation, marking a potential turning point in the current cycle [8] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Trends - The real estate sector (CITIC) experienced a weekly change of +0.7%, underperforming compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which saw changes of +2.0% and +2.3% respectively [53] - New housing sales in 36 cities totaled 1.583 million square meters last week, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 26.5% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.9% [13][21] - The second-hand housing market saw a total transaction area of 1.225 million square meters across 15 cities last week, with a week-on-week decrease of 8.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 15.3% [21] 2. Real Estate Market Conditions - Cumulative new housing sales from January 1 to May 9, 2025, reached 34.796 million square meters, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.2% [13] - The inventory of new homes in 13 cities stands at 77.74 million square meters, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.8% [28] 3. Land Market Conditions - The land transaction area in 100 cities from May 5 to May 11, 2025, was 1.085 million square meters, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 4.8% and a year-on-year decrease of 59.0% [46] - The average land price was 985 yuan per square meter, with a month-on-month decrease of 65.4% and a year-on-year increase of 5.0% [46] 4. Investment Recommendations - For real estate development, recommended companies include China Resources Land, Poly Developments, and Binjiang Group, with a suggestion to pay attention to Greentown China [8] - In property management, recommended companies are China Resources Vientiane Life, Greentown Service, Poly Property, and Yuexiu Services [8] - For real estate brokerage, the report recommends Beike and suggests paying attention to Wo Ai Wo Jia [9]

证券分析师：韦译捷 执业证书编号：S0600524080006 证券研究报告·行业研究·专业服务 船舶行业2024年报&2025年一季报总结 在手订单饱满，业绩加速释放 首席证券分析师：周尔双 执业证书编号：S0600515110002 zhouersh@dwzq.com.cn 我们选取中国船舶、中国重工、中船防务、中国动力、亚星锚链、中国海防为分析对象。 ⚫船厂交付结构持续优化，利润改善明显 2024年船舶板块实现营收2103亿元，同比增长12%，受益于行业高景气与在手订单兑现，增速稳健。归母净利润72亿元， 同比增长103%，船厂交付结构中高价格、低成本的订单占比持续提升，前期包袱逐步出清，利润迎来向上拐点。展望未来， 船舶板块在手订单饱满，且高价船占比持续提升，收入仍有望持续增长，利润率将持续修复：（1）高价订单持续交付。 本轮周期船价自2021年开始回升，2021末-2024年末船价分别同比上涨22%/5%/10%/6%。中国船舶订单交付结构中高船价 比率逐年增长：2024-2026年交付订单中，2021年签单占比分别为65%/7%/0%，利润率有望持续提升。（2）原材料价格与 船价已形成剪刀差，助力 ...

证券研究报告·行业点评报告·机械设备 ◼ 中美贸易获 90 天窗口期，后续仍有谈判空间 此前，中国出口美国商品关税为145%，包括20%芬太尼关税（2025 年 2 月 1 日第 14195 号行政令加征 10%以及 3 月 3 日修改该行政 令至 20%）+34%对等关税（根据 4 月 2 日第 14257 号行政令） +50%对等关税（根据 4 月 8 日第 14259 号行政令）+41%对等关 税（根据 4 月 9 日第 14266 号行政令）。此次合约落地后，90 天 内中国出口往美国的产品关税为 30%（20%芬太尼+10%对等）， 90 天后提升至 54%。中美协议为企业产品出口、海外产能储备等 提供了缓冲期，为盈利水平较为突出的企业提供了保留美国市场 份额的机遇。 ◼ 建议关注盈利水平高、关税承受能力强、估值回落的高机龙头 浙江鼎力 在保证较好盈利基础上，我们预估浙江鼎力国内产能对美新增关 税承受能力约 60%（总体承受能力约 100%，即 24%双反关税 +25%301 关税+20%"芬太尼"关税+34%对等关税），且关税全部 落地稳定后，公司差异化产品有一定顺价能力。本次中美关税政 策调整， ...

Group 1: Macro Liquidity and Market Trends - The central bank's open market operations resulted in a net withdrawal of 781.7 billion yuan, with reverse repos totaling 836.1 billion yuan and withdrawals of 1,617.8 billion yuan[9] - The 1Y and 10Y government bond yields fell to 1.42% and 1.64%, respectively, indicating a strengthening bond market[13] - The offshore RMB exchange rate slightly appreciated to 7.25 yuan against the USD, while the China-US interest rate spread widened[13] Group 2: A-share Market Dynamics - A-shares saw a daily average trading volume of 13,534.26 billion yuan, an increase of 2,495.56 billion yuan from the previous period, indicating a recovery in market activity[18] - Net inflow of funds into A-shares reached 10.6 billion yuan, driven by a recovery in risk appetite and leverage funds returning to the market[22] - Retail investor sentiment improved, with net inflows from retail investors increasing to 61.8 billion yuan, up 14.8 billion yuan from the previous period[25] Group 3: Fund Flows and ETF Trends - New issuance of equity funds decreased to 6.08 billion yuan, down 6.65 billion yuan, influenced by the launch of index-related products[39] - Equity ETFs experienced a net outflow of 11.18 billion yuan, while sector-specific ETFs saw a net inflow of 6.1 billion yuan, indicating a shift in investor focus[43] - The top three ETFs with net inflows were the Huaxia SSE Sci-Tech 50 ETF, with 1.85 billion yuan, and the Jiashi SSE Sci-Tech Chip ETF, with 0.96 billion yuan[49]

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·建筑材料 建筑材料行业跟踪周报 服务消费再贷款落地 2025 年 05 月 12 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 周观点：（1）央行落实此前刺激政策，创设 5000 亿服务消费和养老再 贷款，激励引导金融机构加大对住宿餐饮、文体娱乐、教育等服务消费 重点领域和养老产业的金融支持。4 月 CPI 相对平稳，PPI 下行压力加 大，但 4 月房企拿地情况有所好转，整体而言，地产链复苏的方向不变。 在以旧换新补贴和服务消费刺激政策的推动下，我们期待 25 年 Q3 家 装产业链也会迎来明显加速。地产链出清已近尾声，供给格局大幅改善， 25 年需求平稳且企业增长预期较低，板块具备较高的胜率。首选低估值 的消费龙头和扩张型公司，例如北新建材、三棵树、兔宝宝、奥普科技、 欧普照明、伟星新材、欧派家居、箭牌家居等。其次，如果外部需求快 速回落，中西部基建很有可能成为救急的方向，关注华新水泥、四川路 桥、海螺水泥、中国交建、坚朗五金、东方雨虹等。最后，在 25 年流 动性充裕的背景下，科技属性强的公司仍有较高关注度，例如上海港湾、 鸿路钢构、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the environmental protection industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the collaboration between Qiaoyin Co. and Guodi Center to advance humanoid robot applications in urban services, marking a significant development in the industry [9]. - It emphasizes the trend of decreasing capital expenditures in waste incineration, leading to improved free cash flow and increased dividends, while also noting the enhancement of ROE through efficiency improvements in heating and IDC collaborations [10][11]. - The water utility sector is experiencing stable growth and high dividends, with water price reforms expected to reshape growth and valuation [12][13]. Summary by Sections Humanoid Robot Development - Qiaoyin Co. has signed a cooperation agreement with Guodi Center to launch humanoid robots for urban services, with an initial order of 1,000 robots aimed at street sanitation applications [9]. Waste Incineration Sector - The report identifies two key factors for the solid waste sector: a decrease in capital expenditures leading to improved free cash flow and increased dividends, and a focus on efficiency improvements during the industry's maturity phase [10]. - Specific dividend forecasts for 2024 include: - Junxin Co.: cash dividend of 507 million yuan (+37%), dividend ratio of 94.59% (+22.78 percentage points), and a dividend yield of 4.4% - Green Power: cash dividend of 418 million yuan (+100%), dividend ratio of 71.45% (+38.23 percentage points), with A-share and Hong Kong dividend yields of 4.2% and 8.2% respectively - Hanlan Environment: proposed dividend of 652 million yuan (+67%), dividend ratio of 39.20% (+11.83 percentage points), and a dividend yield of 3.5% [10]. Water Utility Sector - The water utility sector is projected to see stable growth, with 2024 revenues of 65.5 billion yuan (-2%) and a net profit of 11.2 billion yuan (+27%), excluding one-time gains [12]. - Water price reforms in Guangzhou and Shenzhen are expected to drive a new round of price adjustments, enhancing profitability and stability in the sector [13][14]. Environmental Equipment and Renewable Energy - The report notes a 51% increase in sales of new energy sanitation vehicles in early 2025, with a penetration rate of 14.36%, reflecting a growing trend towards electrification in the sanitation equipment sector [29]. - The average price of biodiesel has decreased slightly, with a narrowing price gap between biodiesel and waste oil, impacting profitability [36]. Lithium Battery Recycling - The report indicates a slight decline in profitability in lithium battery recycling due to fluctuating metal prices and a stable discount coefficient, with average unit profits showing a minor decrease [39].

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 宏观点评 20250512 关税超预期下调，股债市场怎么走？ 2025 年 05 月 12 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 事件 观点 ◼ 关税调降后，权益市场如何演绎？ 4 月底以来，政治局会议召开定调全年经济政策措施，A 股上市公司 2024 年年报和 2025 年一季报业绩基本披露完毕，5 月初"一行一局一会"召开 金融政策发布会后，主要指数在关税冲下产生的缺口基本已经回补完毕。 5 月 7 日发布谈判消息至今日发布联合声明后，市场情绪将在短期内快速 演绎拉升，风险偏好上行利好前期跌幅较多的出口链继续回补，情绪层面 上科技板块会受到风险偏好的提升加速演绎。 由于市场对关税缓和已有预期，超预期下降幅度的消化时间可能在 1-2 天 内结束，后续的市场关注重点不再集中于海外变化，更倾向于国内的经济 基本面状况。当前，随着关税政策的缓和，后续的出口数据有望延续高增， 在其他托底政策的支持下，二季度有可能经济数据仍然能维持不错的增 长，因此，市场对国内政策的预期可能有所下降，导致估值已有修复的市 场再次进入到重新选择方向的轮动环境中，五月市场在利好落地 ...