Group 1 - The report highlights the increasing macroeconomic uncertainty, with the Federal Reserve signaling a "wait and see" approach, indicating a cautious stance towards inflation and employment data, while trade policy remains a critical variable [2][3] - The U.S. and U.K. have reached a preliminary trade agreement, reducing tariffs on U.K. car imports to a maximum of 10%, which reflects a potential baseline for future negotiations [2] - The report expresses a cautiously optimistic view on the Hong Kong stock market, noting a strong rebound due to new financial policies, but acknowledges ongoing external risks and market volatility [3][5] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market is expected to experience volatility, with the S&P 500 showing signs of pressure despite recovering from previous declines, influenced by trade negotiations and potential earnings pressures [5][6] - The report indicates that the Hong Kong stock market's rebound requires additional capital inflows and sustained policy support, with current inflows primarily from the southbound channel [3][18] - The report notes that global stock and bond ETFs have seen accelerated net inflows, particularly into European markets, while U.S. markets continue to experience net outflows [6][25]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a potential decline in production, an increase in US gas prices, and lower year-on-year inventory levels, leading to a rise in European gas prices [1][6] - It emphasizes the ongoing adjustments in pricing mechanisms and the gradual recovery of demand, suggesting a favorable outlook for gas companies [6][59] Summary by Sections Price Tracking - As of May 9, 2025, US HH, European TTF, East Asia JKM, and China's LNG prices have increased by 4%, 3.9%, 1.7%, 0%, and 7.3% respectively, with prices at 0.8, 2.9, 2.9, 3.1, and 3.1 yuan per cubic meter [11][16] Supply and Demand Analysis - US natural gas production may decline as some energy companies reduce drilling rigs, with average total supply decreasing by 0.5% week-on-week to 1,099 billion cubic feet per day, while total demand fell by 1.8% to 950 billion cubic feet per day [18] - European gas consumption in May 2025 was 605 billion cubic meters, up 1.8% year-on-year, but inventory levels were down 13.6% year-on-year [23][30] Pricing Progress - Nationwide pricing adjustments are being implemented, with 61% of cities having initiated residential pricing reforms, leading to improved profitability and valuation recovery for city gas companies [43] Important Events - The report notes that tariffs on US LNG have increased to 140%, which has a limited impact due to the small share of US LNG in total imports [51][53] - The European Commission has voted to introduce more flexible natural gas storage filling targets to avoid supply shortages [56][58] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the ongoing pricing adjustments, highlighting key companies such as Xinao Energy, China Resources Gas, and Kunlun Energy [59] - It suggests monitoring companies with quality long-term contracts and flexible operations, such as Jiufeng Energy and Xinao Holdings [59]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a potential decline in production, an increase in US gas prices, and lower year-on-year inventory levels, leading to a rise in European gas prices [1][6] - It emphasizes the ongoing adjustments in pricing mechanisms and the gradual recovery of demand, suggesting a favorable outlook for gas companies [6][59] Summary by Sections Price Tracking - As of May 9, 2025, US HH, European TTF, East Asia JKM, and China's LNG prices have increased by 4%, 3.9%, 1.7%, 0%, and 7.3% respectively, with prices at 0.8, 2.9, 2.9, 3.1, and 3.1 yuan per cubic meter [11][16] Supply and Demand Analysis - US natural gas production may decline as some energy companies reduce drilling rigs, with average total supply decreasing by 0.5% week-on-week to 1,099 billion cubic feet per day, while total demand fell by 1.8% to 950 billion cubic feet per day [18] - European gas consumption in May 2025 was 605 billion cubic meters, up 1.8% year-on-year, but inventory levels were down 13.6% year-on-year [23] Pricing Progress - Nationwide pricing adjustments are being implemented, with 61% of cities having initiated residential pricing reforms, leading to improved profitability and valuation recovery for city gas companies [43] Important Events - The report notes that tariffs on US LNG have increased to 140%, which has a limited impact due to the small share of US LNG in total imports [51] - The European Commission has voted to introduce more flexible natural gas storage filling targets to avoid supply shortages [56] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the ongoing pricing adjustments, highlighting key companies such as Xinao Energy, China Resources Gas, and Kunlun Energy [59] - It also suggests monitoring companies with quality long-term contracts and flexible operations, such as Jiufeng Energy and Xinao Holdings [59]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on leading equipment manufacturers in the photovoltaic industry, anticipating their ability to navigate through the current cycle [1]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic equipment industry is experiencing short-term performance pressure, with a focus on waiting for industry recovery [6][42]. - The industry is characterized by both growth and cyclical attributes, influenced by supply, demand, and technological factors [3]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - In 2024, the total revenue of the photovoltaic equipment industry reached 848.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 54.8 billion, down 57% year-on-year [10]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a total revenue of 158.3 billion, a decrease of 19% year-on-year, with net profit dropping to 15 billion, down 40% year-on-year [10]. Profitability Analysis - The industry's gross margin for 2024 was 24%, a decrease of 6 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 6%, down 9 percentage points year-on-year [16]. - The report highlights that leading equipment manufacturers maintain higher profitability compared to the industry average, with gross margins around 30% [28]. Equipment Segment Insights - In the silicon wafer equipment segment, low-oxygen single crystal furnaces and tungsten wire diamond saws are expected to have promising futures, with ongoing international expansion [43]. - The battery equipment segment is seeing accelerated cost reduction and efficiency improvements, particularly with HJT technology, and overseas orders are expected to increase [43]. Market Trends - The report notes a slowdown in the expansion of silicon wafer production capacity in 2024, with a focus on the introduction of new technologies as downstream markets recover [60]. - The Middle East is emerging as a significant market for photovoltaic equipment, with expected growth in installed capacity driven by energy diversification efforts [65]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - The industry has seen a significant improvement in cash flow since Q3 2024, with a net operating cash flow of 9.25 billion in Q1 2025 [40].

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收周报 固收周报 20250512 继续围绕转债核心稀缺资产进行抢筹配置 2025 年 05 月 12 日 证券分析师 李勇 执业证书：S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 陈伯铭 执业证书：S0600523020002 chenbm@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《 4 月外贸数据和降准降息落地，债 券抢跑仍需消化》 2025-05-11 《二级资本债周度数据跟踪 （20250505-20250509）》 2025-05-11 东吴证券研究所 1 / 21 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 上周（0505－0509）美债收益率长短端继续向上修复，期限利差维持在 大约 50bp 左右，我们认为一方面鲍威尔重审了联储对再通胀的担忧， 一方面美英之间达成贸易协议，前期我们认为广泛主要经济体将以拖待 变，目前我们认为或出现分化，部分国家将以美英协议为基准从而快速 同美达成共识，其余部分国家将不认可美英协议，并坚持在 WTO 多边 主义框架下同美对话，但无论如何 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail trade industry [1] Core Insights - In April, China's export value exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 8.1% in dollar terms, significantly higher than the 1.9% predicted by economists [4][9] - The growth in exports was primarily driven by increases in exports to ASEAN (+20.8%), Africa (+25.3%), and Latin America (+17.3%), despite a 21% decline in exports to the U.S. [4][9] - Yiwu, where the small commodity city is located, reported a total import and export value of 167.4 billion yuan in March, a year-on-year increase of 13.0%, with exports growing by 14.5% [4][9] - The report highlights the low dependency of Yiwu's exports on the U.S., with only 15% of its exports directed to the U.S. in the first quarter [4][9] - The Central Committee and State Council issued guidelines to enhance the Free Trade Zone, which is expected to benefit Yiwu [4][10] - The report is optimistic about the "Yiwu Deepening Reform Plan," which aims to promote further development in the market, especially in cross-border imports [4][10] - The small commodity city is recommended as a core investment target due to its low exposure to U.S. tariffs and ongoing business development [4][10] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - In April, China's exports showed a remarkable increase despite tariff impacts, with significant growth in non-U.S. markets [4][9] - Yiwu's performance in the first quarter indicates a robust export environment, less affected by U.S. tariffs [4][9] Market Review - The report notes the performance of various indices, with the retail trade index increasing by 0.88% from May 6 to May 11, 2025 [11] - Year-to-date, the retail trade index has risen by 7.08% [11][15] Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for various companies, indicating their market capitalization, closing prices, and profit forecasts [17] - Notable companies such as "Xiaoshangpin City" are highlighted with a buy rating, reflecting strong growth potential [18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the insurance industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The insurance industry is facing challenges due to low interest rates, necessitating a dual approach of managing both assets and liabilities to mitigate interest spread loss risks [11][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of adjusting liability costs and product structures to reduce dependence on interest spreads, while also enhancing asset management strategies [12][23] Summary by Sections 1. Interest Spread Loss Risk Management - The core strategy to address interest spread loss is to manage both assets and liabilities simultaneously [11] - The report suggests that reducing rigid liability costs through lowering preset interest rates is crucial [12][13] 2. Liability Side: Focus on Cost Management - Continuous adjustments to preset interest rates are necessary to lower the overall liability costs [14][15] - The report indicates that the preset interest rates for traditional, dividend, and universal insurance products have been reduced to 2.5%, 2.0%, and 1.5% respectively by 2024 [16][17] - The implementation of a dynamic adjustment mechanism for preset interest rates linked to macroeconomic indicators is expected to further optimize liability costs [17] 3. Asset Side: Strengthening Duration Management - The report recommends adopting flexible duration strategies in the short term due to significant fluctuations in long-term interest rates [53] - Long-term strategies should focus on extending the duration of assets to match liabilities, as the current duration gap in the domestic insurance market is notably high [55] 4. Product Structure Adjustment - Increasing the proportion of non-guaranteed products like dividend and universal insurance can help mitigate the impact of interest spread losses [24][26] - The report highlights that the shift towards floating yield products is already underway, with floating yield products accounting for 51.7% of new premiums in Q1 2025 [31] 5. Implementation of "Report and Action Together" - The report discusses the implementation of the "Report and Action Together" policy, which has led to a significant reduction in commission rates by approximately 30% in the bancassurance channel [42][43] - This policy is expected to enhance the net business value (NBV) margin for insurance companies, contributing positively to their overall performance [43][44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [1]. Core Insights - GLP-1 drugs have emerged as leading products, with recommendations to focus on companies such as BoRui Pharmaceutical, Innovent Biologics, and Federated Pharmaceutical [1][15]. - The global GIP-1 market shows significant potential, with Q1 2025 sales surpassing PD-1 antibodies. The WHO is developing guidelines for the use of GLP-1 in adult obesity, expected to be released in August-September 2025 [1][15]. - The report highlights a shift in R&D trends from single-target to multi-target drugs, with a focus on oral formulations and both peptide and small molecule drugs [1][16]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The A-share pharmaceutical index has increased by 1.0% this week and 1.2% year-to-date, underperforming the CSI 300 by 1.0% and outperforming by 3.4% respectively [9]. - The H-share biotechnology index has decreased by 4% this week but increased by 27% year-to-date, outperforming the Hang Seng Technology Index by 19% and 29% respectively [9]. GLP-1 Drug Market - Sales of semaglutide reached 78.64 billion USD in Q1 2025, surpassing Keytruda's 72.05 billion USD [15]. - The WHO is expected to finalize guidelines for GLP-1 RA use in obesity treatment by late 2025, which could significantly boost sales [15]. R&D Trends - The report notes a transition from single-target to multi-target drug development, with multi-target drugs showing superior clinical efficacy [16][17]. - Clinical data indicates that semaglutide and dual-target drugs like tirzepatide are leading in weight loss efficacy, with ongoing trials for multi-target drugs showing promising results [17]. Investment Recommendations - The report ranks preferred sub-sectors as follows: innovative drugs > CXO > traditional Chinese medicine > medical devices > pharmacies > pharmaceutical commerce [10]. - Specific stock recommendations include BoRui Pharmaceutical, Innovent Biologics, Federated Pharmaceutical, and others based on growth potential and valuation metrics [10].

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·公用事业 公用事业行业跟踪周报 首个省级 136 号实施细则出台，存量项目执 行国家上限 0.3949 元/千瓦时 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary ] 2025 年 05 月 11 日 证券分析师 袁理 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 唐亚辉 执业证书：S0600520070005 tangyh@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 本周核心观点：山东省国家发改委首个 136 号文实施细则发布，存量新 能源电价收益保障：（1）存量项目全电量入市，实行国家上限机制电 价 0.3949 元/千瓦时，优化电量上限并衔接现有保障利用小时数（70%- 85%）；（2）增量项目竞价导向，按"低价优先"原则遴选项目，电价 不高于竞价上限（参考上年度结算均价），申报充足率下限设为 125%， 引导充分竞争。（3）电力辅助服务，充分提升系统灵活性。在现有调 频、爬坡辅助服务基础上，新增备用辅助服务交易，实现与现货市场的 联合出清，增强电网调 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail trade industry [1] Core Insights - In April, China's export value exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 8.1% in dollar terms, significantly surpassing the 1.9% forecast by Reuters. This growth occurred despite a 21% decline in exports to the U.S. The main drivers of this growth were exports to ASEAN, Africa, and Latin America, which saw increases of 20.8%, 25.3%, and 17.3% respectively [4][9] - Yiwu, where the small commodity city is located, reported impressive import and export growth in the first quarter of 2025, with total import and export value reaching 167.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.0%, and exports amounting to 147.3 billion yuan, up 14.5%. The city's low dependency on U.S. exports (only 15% of total exports) positions it favorably under the current tariff environment [4][9] - The report highlights the potential benefits for Yiwu from the recent policy initiatives aimed at enhancing the free trade zone, which includes measures to streamline customs processes for food and drug imports. This is expected to further boost the market, especially in cross-border imports [10] - The report recommends investing in the small commodity city as a core asset for non-U.S. exports, citing its low exposure to U.S. tariffs, ongoing market reforms, and the upcoming launch of new global trade centers expected to enhance profitability [4][10] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The report notes that despite tariff impacts, China's exports have shown robust growth, particularly in non-U.S. markets, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [4][9] Market Performance - The retail trade index increased by 0.88% during the week of May 6 to May 11, 2025, while the overall market indices also showed positive performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.92% [11][14] Company Valuation Table - The report includes a detailed valuation table for various companies within the industry, highlighting their market capitalization, closing prices, and projected earnings, with several companies rated as "Buy" or "Overweight" [17][18]