宏观周报 2026 年 03 月 01 日 宏观研究团队 谋篇"十五五"迎两会；中东地缘风险升级 ——宏观周报 | 何宁（分析师） | 沈美辰（分析师） | | --- | --- | | hening@kysec.cn | shenmeichen@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522110002 | 证书编号：S0790524110002 | |  | 国内宏观政策：谋篇"十五五"迎两会；深耕"人工智能+" | 近期（2 月 1 日-2 月 28 日）国内宏观主要聚焦以下几个方面： 政策基调方面，2 月 27 日，中共中央政治局召开会议，讨论"十五五"规划纲 要草案和《政府工作报告》。会议指出，做好今年政府工作，要实施更加积极有 为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性，持续扩大内需、优化供给，做优 增量、盘活存量，因地制宜发展新质生产力，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，持 续防范化解重点领域风险，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期。国务院总理 李强 2 月 24 日主持召开国务院常务会议，部署做好春节假期后政府工作，要求 着力抓好重点任务落实，支持地方和企业积极探索打造新增长点。 基建与产业 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 1.324 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.13%, and a net profit of 152 million yuan, which is an increase of 29.61% [4] - The company has a strong product matrix and competitive advantage in its offerings, which is expected to enhance its profitability [5][6] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with expected net profits of 152 million, 227 million, and 284 million yuan respectively, leading to an EPS of 1.68, 2.50, and 3.13 yuan per share [4] Financial Performance Summary - The company reported a revenue of 1.324 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 20.1% [7] - The net profit for 2025 is projected at 152 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 29.7% [7] - The gross margin is expected to improve to 44.3% in 2025, with a net margin of 11.5% [7] - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 34.8 in 2025 to 18.6 in 2027, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [7] Product and R&D Insights - The company has developed a vast product library with nearly one million molecular building blocks and scientific reagents, with over 140,000 types of products available [5] - Continuous investment in R&D is evident, with R&D expenses amounting to 46 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing 4.70% of revenue [6] - The company is focusing on high-value, customized molecular building blocks to meet the evolving needs of clients in drug development [6]

Group 1 - The report highlights the integration of the semiconductor industry chain, with a focus on the change of control in Kaide Quartz Holdings to Jiangfeng Electronics, which aims to enhance its position in the semiconductor sector [2][3] - The report indicates that as of March 1, 2026, the Beijing Stock Exchange has disclosed 50 significant investment and merger events, reflecting a growing trend in mergers and acquisitions within the market [2][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of the new policies, such as the "New National Nine Articles" and "Merger Six Articles," which are expected to stimulate the merger and acquisition market starting in 2024 [2][9][14] Group 2 - Jiangfeng Electronics, which focuses on ultra-pure metal sputtering targets and semiconductor precision components, is expected to benefit from the continuous growth in downstream demand from sectors like AI, 5G communication, and cloud computing, leading to an increase in global wafer and chip production [3][31] - The merger between Jiangfeng Electronics and Kaide Quartz is anticipated to expand the semiconductor industry chain layout and enhance customer service capabilities due to the overlap in their product applications [3][29] - Kaide Quartz is committed to advancing high-end semiconductor and photovoltaic quartz products, with revenue from semiconductor integrated circuit quartz products expected to increase in 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [3][31]

Group 1: Oil and Gas Industry - The escalation of the US-Iran conflict is expected to drive international oil prices higher, potentially reaching the range of $75 to $80 per barrel, with a possibility of exceeding $100 per barrel if military actions disrupt Iranian oil supply [1][9][10] - The North Exchange has several companies involved in oil and gas extraction and shipping, including Keli Co., Biyang Technology, and Wan De Co., which are likely to benefit from rising oil prices and shipping costs [1][20][22] - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are significantly increasing the risk premium in the oil market, with the potential for historical price spikes if supply disruptions occur [1][10][11] Group 2: Chemical New Materials Industry - The chemical new materials sector on the North Exchange saw an increase of 2.60% this week, outperforming other sectors [2][27] - Key sub-sectors within the chemical new materials industry, such as battery materials and non-metallic materials, reported significant weekly gains of 5.35% and 4.52% respectively [2][28] - Notable stock performances included Keli Co. with a weekly increase of 21.79%, and Huifeng Diamond with 16.19% [2][34] Group 3: Company Performance Reports - Tian Gong Co. reported a decline in both revenue and profit for 2025, with a revenue drop of 21.25% to 631 million yuan, primarily due to weak demand in the consumer electronics sector [3][66] - Beiterui achieved a revenue growth of 19.29% in 2025, reaching 16.983 billion yuan, driven by strong demand in the new energy vehicle and energy storage markets [3][66] - Yinuowei reported a revenue increase of 9.37% to 7.5 billion yuan in 2025, indicating a sustained improvement in core business profitability [3][66]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that concerns over AI impacts have pressured the insurance sector, creating opportunities for positioning as the market adjusts. The average PEV valuation for A-share listed insurance companies has dropped to 0.78 times, indicating favorable odds for short-term adjustments. The performance catalyst window for the insurance and brokerage sectors is expected to open gradually in March and April, presenting good opportunities for investment [5] - The brokerage sector is benefiting from an increase in the Hong Kong stock market's activity, with February's average daily stock trading volume reaching 2.83 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34%. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange reported a revenue increase of 30.3% year-on-year, driven by record trading volumes in various markets [6] - In the insurance sector, a new dividend insurance product with a guaranteed interest rate of 1.25% has been launched, which is lower than the market average of 1.75%. This move is seen as a strategy to manage risk in a low-interest-rate environment, indicating strong demand for dividend insurance products amid bullish market expectations [7] Summary by Sections Non-Bank Financials - The report indicates a positive outlook for the non-bank financial sector, with significant growth in new fund establishments and stock trading volumes [6] Insurance - The introduction of a new dividend insurance product with a 1.25% guaranteed rate reflects a proactive approach by insurers to manage risks and meet market demand. The sector is expected to see improved performance as long-term interest rates stabilize and asset performance improves [7] Brokerage - The brokerage sector is poised for a spring rally, with low valuations and high growth potential in retail and wealth management. Key recommendations include firms with strong wealth management contributions and low valuations [6][8]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in AI computing power demand driven by ongoing updates in large models, with expectations of total computing expenditure reaching $600 billion by 2030 [5] - The semiconductor sector is experiencing a positive outlook, with major companies like SK Hynix planning to increase production to meet global data center demands [6] - The A-share technology market is showing strength, with notable gains in the electronics sector, particularly in semiconductor and consumer electronics [4] Market Review - The international situation has impacted overseas markets, leading to a decline, while domestic technology stocks have shown significant growth. The electronics industry index rose by 4.02%, semiconductors by 2.18%, consumer electronics by 3.00%, and optical electronics by 4.19% during the week [3] - Major overseas tech stocks experienced mixed results, with notable gains in application optics, which surged by 62.98% [3] Industry Updates - Major smartphone manufacturers are expected to collectively raise prices, with Apple set to launch new products on March 4, including at least five new devices [4] - Collaboration in computing power is strengthening, with Meta and AMD signing a long-term agreement to deploy up to 6GW of GPUs [5] - SK Hynix announced plans to significantly increase HBM production and has initiated a global standardization strategy for next-generation memory solutions [6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Jiangfeng Electronics, Tuojing Technology, Huyuan Technology, and Shenghong Technology as key investment targets, while suggesting stocks like Cambricon, Jingce Electronics, and Changchuan Technology as beneficiaries [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing collaboration between GSK and Chinese company Frontier Bio in the siRNA field, indicating that Chinese enterprises are gaining international recognition for their R&D capabilities [6][7] - The pharmaceutical sector saw a 0.5% increase, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.58 percentage points, ranking 25th among 31 sub-industries [8][22] - The report recommends focusing on innovative drugs and their supply chains, including CXO and research services, as well as emerging industries like AI and brain-machine interfaces [9] Summary by Sections GSK Collaboration and Market Trends - GSK has been actively engaging in partnerships related to small nucleic acids, with significant pipelines in ASO and siRNA. Notably, GSK's collaboration with Frontier Bio involves a total transaction value of up to $1.003 billion for two pipelines [6][7][18] - The report notes that GSK's recent partnerships reflect the growing technical strength and platform value of Chinese companies in the small nucleic acid drug development sector [7][17] Market Performance - In the week of February 4, 2026, the pharmaceutical sector increased by 0.5%, with the medical consumables sector showing the highest growth at 3.99%. Conversely, the medical R&D outsourcing sector experienced the largest decline at -2.2% [8][22][23] - Monthly data indicates that since the beginning of 2026, the overall market has been on an upward trend, with various sectors performing differently [22] Recommendations - The report continues to favor innovative drugs and their associated industries, recommending specific companies such as Heng Rui Medicine, WuXi AppTec, and others for investment [9][26] - Weekly recommendations include companies like Bai Li Tian Heng and Kanglong Huacheng, indicating a strategic focus on firms with strong growth potential in the pharmaceutical sector [9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The chemical industry index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 6.07% this week, indicating strong market performance [10][17] - The prices of chemical products showed mixed trends, with 103 products increasing and 34 decreasing in price over the past week [18] - The U.S. has canceled tariffs on fentanyl and reciprocal tariffs, which may positively impact clothing exports [21] - The U.S. signed an executive order recognizing the strategic value of phosphorus chemical products, potentially leading to a revaluation of their market [5][33] Summary by Sections Chemical Market Tracking and Event Commentary - The chemical industry index rose to 5211.18 points, up 7.15% from the previous week, while the CCPI (China Chemical Product Price Index) increased by 0.02% to 4041 points [10][17] - A total of 472 out of 545 stocks in the chemical sector saw weekly gains, representing 86.61% of the sector [17] Key Product Tracking - Urea prices increased to an average of 1799 RMB/ton, up 29 RMB/ton (1.64%) from the previous period [38] - Phosphate rock prices remained stable, with 30% grade averaging 1016 RMB/ton [39] - The average price of ammonium phosphate was stable at 6506 RMB/ton [40] Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, Hengli Petrochemical, and others in the chemical sector [7] - Beneficiary stocks include satellite chemical and Dongfang Shenghong [7][22]

Group 1: AI in Healthcare Development - The integration of AI in healthcare is driven by policy support and technological advancements, enhancing clinical decision-making and optimizing treatment processes[3] - By 2027, the goal is to establish high-quality healthcare data sets and specialized AI models for clinical decision support, with full coverage of AI-assisted primary care by 2030[12] - The global market for healthcare AI solutions is projected to reach 40 billion CNY by 2024, with China's market expected to reach 16.4 billion CNY in the same year[21][22] Group 2: Market Performance and Trends - The North Exchange's pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector saw a weekly increase of 0.34%, with traditional Chinese medicine rising by 1.15%[4] - As of February 27, 2026, there are 170 companies queued for listing on the North Exchange, with 14 in the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector, averaging 438 million CNY in revenue for 2024[41] - 59.09% of pharmaceutical and biotechnology stocks experienced price increases this week, with notable gains from companies like Aisheren (+3.55%) and Senxuan Pharmaceutical (+2.34%)[36][39] Group 3: Company Performance Highlights - Jin Hao Medical, Wuxi Crystal Sea, and Deyuan Pharmaceutical reported significant net profit growth exceeding 10% year-on-year for 2025[4] - Baijing Biological achieved a revenue of 402 million CNY in 2024, with a net profit of 123.83 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 18.91%[43] - Kanghua Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 728 million CNY in 2024, with a net profit of 125.07 million CNY, marking a 79.09% increase year-on-year[50]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing collaboration between GSK and domestic companies in the siRNA field, indicating that Chinese enterprises are gaining international recognition for their R&D capabilities [6][7] - The pharmaceutical sector has shown a 0.5% increase, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.58 percentage points, ranking 25th among 31 sub-industries [8][22] - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for innovative drugs and their supply chain, recommending specific companies for investment [9] Summary by Sections GSK Collaboration and R&D - GSK has been actively collaborating in the small nucleic acid space, with multiple significant pipelines. Since 2009, GSK has engaged in numerous business development transactions focused on ASO and siRNA [6][16] - In 2026, GSK partnered with a Chinese siRNA company, Frontline Bio, for a deal worth up to $1.003 billion, showcasing the growing recognition of Chinese firms in the global market [7][18] Market Performance - The pharmaceutical sector's performance in February 2026 showed a 0.5% increase, with the medical consumables sector leading with a 3.99% rise, while the medical R&D outsourcing sector experienced the largest decline at 2.2% [22][23] - Monthly data indicates that the overall market has been on an upward trend since the beginning of 2026, with various sectors performing differently [22][26] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a positive outlook on innovative drugs and their supply chain, including CXO and research services, as well as emerging industries like AI and bio-manufacturing [9] - Monthly and weekly investment recommendations include companies such as Heng Rui Medicine, WuXi AppTec, and Frontline Bio, among others [9]