2025 年 12 月 07 日 宏观研究团队 推动基础设施 REITs 扩围 ——宏观周报 | 何宁（分析师） | 沈美辰（分析师） | hening@kysec.cn | shenmeichen@kysec.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证书编号：S0790522110002 | 证书编号：S0790524110002 | 国内宏观政策：加快战略性新兴产业集群发展 |  | 过去两周（11 月 23 日-12 月 6 日）国内宏观主要聚焦以下几个方面： 经济增长方面，近期中央召开的重要会议聚焦基本医疗保险制度建设、新型城镇 化规划、城市更新行动等议题。 宏观周报 基建与产业方面, 近两周政策聚焦国家新兴产业发展示范基地创建工作启动；商 业航天高质量发展行动计划推出；推动基础设施 REITs 扩围至城市更新设施、酒 店、体育场馆、商业办公设施等领域；发改委发布《关于加强数据要素学科专业 建设和数字人才队伍建设的意见》等。 地产政策方面，各地继续推进"好房子"建设，例如北京市"十五五"规划建议 持续推进住有所居，实施以公共交通为导向的综合开发，优先向轨道交通站点周 边供应 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of the upcoming spring market rally, driven by policy expectations, seasonal liquidity changes, and institutional repositioning [4][5][6] - The report identifies two significant shifts in the funding landscape that could enhance the securitization rate in China, with a focus on the transition from real estate to equity markets [6][7] - Investment strategies are suggested to focus on both technology and cyclical sectors, highlighting opportunities in underperforming growth industries such as military, media, AI applications, and power equipment [7][8] Industry Analysis Aerospace Industry - The report highlights the rapid development of China's commercial aerospace sector, with reusable rockets being a key focus area, supported by government initiatives [16][18] - The cost of launching satellites is a critical factor, with current prices for high and low orbit missions being significantly higher than those of international competitors like SpaceX [19] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" positions commercial aerospace as a strategic industry, aiming for a GDP contribution of 2% and a market value exceeding 7 trillion yuan by 2030 [20] Real Estate Sector - Recent data indicates a decline in new and second-hand housing transaction volumes, with ongoing government efforts to stabilize the real estate market [35][36] - The report suggests that policies aimed at urban renewal and housing quality improvement will support market stabilization, despite potential price fluctuations [36][37] - The issuance of credit bonds has decreased significantly, indicating a tightening in financing conditions within the sector [38] Financial Sector - The report notes a potential easing of leverage limits for brokerages, which could enhance return on equity (ROE) and support the overall financial sector [50][51] - Regulatory changes are expected to encourage innovation and support mergers and acquisitions, particularly for leading institutions [51] Electronics Industry - The electronics sector is experiencing a recovery, driven by new AI products and improvements in supply-demand dynamics within the panel industry [28][29] - The report highlights the successful IPO of a key player in the AI computing space, indicating strong market interest and investment potential [30] Food and Beverage Sector - The report discusses short-term price fluctuations in the liquor market, particularly for brands like Moutai, while emphasizing the long-term value of established brands [45][46] - New product launches in the health food segment are expected to drive growth for companies like Ximai, with a focus on traditional health concepts [46][48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the growth in tourism between China and Cambodia, driven by the new visa-free policy, which is expected to boost tourist flows [5][15] - The breakfast market in China is identified as a significant opportunity, with major brands like Mixue and Guoming entering the segment [6][33] - The education sector is experiencing a shift towards vocational training due to declining numbers in traditional higher education applications, emphasizing employment-oriented education [39][44] - Lin Qingxuan, a high-end domestic skincare brand, is showing strong growth in both online and offline sales, with a notable increase in revenue and profit margins [45][50] Summary by Sections 1. Travel and Tourism - Cambodia has implemented a visa-free policy for Chinese citizens, expected to increase tourist numbers significantly, with a 45% year-on-year increase in Chinese tourists from January to October 2025 [5][15] - In November 2025, Hainan's duty-free shopping reached 2.38 billion yuan, a 27.1% increase year-on-year, despite a slight decrease in shopping visitors [23][24] 2. Breakfast Market - The breakfast market in China is valued at approximately 1.7 trillion yuan, with the external breakfast market estimated between 700 to 800 billion yuan [6][33] - Mixue has launched breakfast offerings in several cities, targeting consumers with affordable pricing [37][38] 3. Education Sector - The number of students taking the national college entrance examination has decreased for the first time in eight years, with a significant drop in graduate school applications [39][40] - Vocational education is gaining traction as students seek better employment outcomes, with a reported 95%+ employment rate in vocational programs [44] 4. Skincare Industry - Lin Qingxuan reported a revenue of 1.05 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a 98.3% year-on-year increase, with online sales growing significantly [45][47] - The brand's product mix includes a high proportion of premium skincare items, contributing to improved profit margins [50][55] 5. Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market saw the consumer services and media sectors underperforming, while the retail sector outperformed the market [59][65] - Notable stock performances included significant gains in retail and education sectors, with specific companies like Liufu Group and Gaoxin Retail leading the gains [65][66]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The REITs market is expected to continue to provide good investment opportunities due to the downward pressure on bond market interest rates and the expectation of increased allocations from social security and pension funds [5][6] - The market remains active with 13 REITs funds waiting to be listed, indicating a robust issuance market [8][5] Market Overview - As of the 49th week of 2025, the CSI REITs (closing) index was 805.28, up 3.02% year-on-year but down 0.47% month-on-month; the CSI REITs total return index was 1031.5, up 11.22% year-on-year but down 0.85% month-on-month [5][21] - The trading volume of the REITs market reached 461 million shares, a year-on-year decrease of 34.14%, with a transaction value of 1.962 billion yuan, down 23.86% year-on-year [27][5] Sector Performance - Weekly performance for various REITs sectors showed declines: affordable housing down 0.51%, environmental down 0.47%, highways down 1.12%, industrial parks down 0.95%, warehousing and logistics down 0.48%, energy down 0.14%, and consumer REITs down 1.07% [38][5] - Monthly performance also reflected declines across sectors, with affordable housing down 0.25% and other sectors showing similar trends [38][5] Regulatory Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on the 2025 version of the industry scope list for infrastructure REITs, emphasizing that project initiators must be independent legal entities engaged in relevant business [6][14] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is focused on deepening capital market reforms and enhancing the attractiveness and competitiveness of the capital market, which includes the steady development of REITs and asset securitization [6][14]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The electronic sector has stabilized and rebounded, with the industry index rising by 1.17% due to catalysts from AI glasses and improved supply-demand dynamics in the panel industry [3] - AI terminal products are being launched intensively, with significant market attention on new AI glasses and system-level AI functionalities [4] - The successful listing of Moore Threads on the STAR Market and the high subscription enthusiasm for Muxi shares indicate accelerated capitalization in computing power [5] Market Review - The electronic industry index increased by 1.17% during the week of December 1-5, 2025, driven by AI glasses and improved supply-demand in the panel sector, with optical and optoelectronic leading the gains at 4.28% [3] - North American tech indices rose due to warming interest rate expectations and a recovery in global risk appetite, with notable increases in semiconductor stocks [3] Industry Updates - AI glasses are seeing a surge in new releases, with notable products from companies like Alibaba and Ideal, and Google collaborating with XREAL for new products [4] - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce's meetings with robotics industry leaders suggest potential administrative orders may be released in 2026 [4] Computing Power - Moore Threads successfully listed on the STAR Market with a market cap exceeding 280 billion, while Muxi's share subscription is highly sought after [5] - The release of the DeepSeek-V3.2 model enhances inference capabilities, potentially boosting the open-source model ecosystem [5] Storage Market - HBM4 supply competition is intensifying, with Samsung completing production readiness and Micron focusing on AI storage chips [6] - TrendForce predicts a 20-25% increase in NAND prices in Q4 2025, indicating a bullish outlook for the storage market [6] Investment Recommendations - Focus on investment opportunities catalyzed by AI terminals and self-controlled technologies, with specific attention to companies like SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and others [7]

房地产 房地产 新房二手房成交面积同环比下降，扎实推进好房子建 2025 年 12 月 07 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 房地产 沪深300 相关研究报告 《新房成交面积环比增长，支持城市 存 量 设 施 更 新 改 造 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.11.30 《新房成交面积环比增长，以高水平 安全保障城市高质量发展—行业周 报》-2025.11.23 《高基数下销售数据承压，开竣工面 积降幅扩大 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.11.16 | qidong@kysec.cn | | --- | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | 杜致远（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | duzhiyuan@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | 证书编号：S0790524070001 | 证书 ...

行 业 研 究 2025 年 12 月 07 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -14% -7% 0% 7% 14% 22% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 电力 沪深300 相关研究报告 《BEST 研究计划首次发布，美国启动 创世纪计划—可控核聚变行业周报》 -2025.11.30 《电改加速深化，预期有望趋稳—电 力行业 2026 年度投资策略》 -2025.11.27 《TAE 缩短商业化时间表，东部超导 实现量产突破—可控核聚变行业周 报》-2025.11.23 九院中标 5 亿氚工厂项目，NIF 完成第十次点火 ——行业周报 | 周磊（分析师） | 黄懿轩（联系人） | | --- | --- | | zhoulei1@kysec.cn | huangyixuan1@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790524090002 | 证书编号：S0790125070014 | 板块回顾：全部细分环节上涨，个股涨多跌少 本周（20251201-20251205）可控核聚变板块下，个股涨多跌少。具体来看，涨 幅前五标的分别为宏微科技（+22.0%）、雪人集团（+ ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the global semiconductor market is expected to grow significantly, with revenues projected to increase by 22.5% to $772 billion in 2025 and further by 26.3% to $975 billion in 2026, driven by strong demand for AI applications and data center infrastructure [2][10][12] - The semiconductor materials market in China is projected to grow from 75.58 billion yuan in 2020 to 143.78 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.44%, reaching 174.08 billion yuan by 2025 [12][15][16] - The report identifies several companies listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange that are involved in semiconductor materials, including Geberit, Jiaxian Co., Tianma New Materials, and others, which are positioned in critical segments of domestic substitution with high technical barriers and market scarcity [2][17][19] Group 2 - The report notes that the chemical new materials sector on the Beijing Stock Exchange experienced a slight decline of 0.16% during the week, with specific sectors like metal new materials and professional technical services showing positive growth [3][25][29] - Individual stocks such as KQ Co. and XWL Co. showed significant weekly gains, with KQ Co. increasing by 9.35% and XWL Co. by 6.03% [3][32][33] - The report provides insights into the price trends of various chemical products, including MDI and TDI, indicating fluctuations in the market that could impact related companies [34][35]

北交所策略专题报告 2025 年 12 月 07 日 北交所做市公司家数增长，做市商"择优而市"向核心指数汇集 ——北交所策略专题报告 北交所研究团队 诸海滨（分析师） zhuhaibin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522080007 北交所做市公司数增至 143 家和北证 50 和北证专精特新指数重合度较高。 2025 年 10 月 24 日北交所、全国股转公司对证券公司 2025 Q1-3 的执业质量情况 进行了评价，合计有 21 家券商获得北交所做市得分。从有做市商的企业市值规 模和数量来看，整体队伍稳步"扩容"，截至 2025 年 12 月 5 日，北交所合计有 143 家企业有做市商，较 2024 全年增长 21.19%，北交所有做市商的企业总市值 达 4993.45 亿元。从收益率来看，有做市商的企业的涨幅以及成交更活跃，2025 年至今北交所有做市商的企业收益率达 48.51%，高于没有做市商企业的 39.11%，。从行业角度来看，做市公司中高端制造行业数量有 64 家，占比 44.76%。 从市值角度来看，20-50 亿市值企业占比最大，占比为 48.25%。从企业画像来看， 有做 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Fenjiu is maintained as "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong performance in a challenging industry environment, with a projected net profit of CNY 12.28 billion, CNY 13.13 billion, and CNY 14.42 billion for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth of +0.3%, +6.9%, and +9.8% respectively [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be CNY 10.07, CNY 10.76, and CNY 11.82 for the same period, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 19.9, 18.6, and 17.0 times [4] - The company has a robust product structure and a healthy national distribution, which has allowed it to outperform the industry [4] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, revenue from Shanxi Fenjiu was CNY 32.17 billion, with a year-on-year increase of +5.5%, while other liquor categories saw a decline of -15.9% [5] - Provincial revenue was CNY 11.01 billion, down -7.5%, while out-of-province revenue reached CNY 21.81 billion, up +12.7% [5] - The company has actively optimized its distributor structure, canceling contracts with 33 distributors and penalizing over 400 for violations [6] Market Position - The company has maintained a competitive edge with its next-high-end Qinghua series, which has shown significant growth due to its unique flavor profile and high consumer loyalty [5] - Despite industry challenges, the profitability of distributors for Shanxi Fenjiu remains strong, supported by a diverse product mix and stable pricing [7] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Projected operating revenue for 2025 is CNY 37.865 billion, with a year-on-year growth of +5.1% [8] - The gross margin is expected to be 74.5%, and the net margin is projected at 32.4% for 2025 [8] - Return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to decline to 28.5% by 2025, reflecting a strategic focus on sustainable growth [8]