2025 年 12 月 22 日 开源晨会 1222 ——晨会纪要 | 沪深300 | 及创业板指数近1年走势 | | 吴梦迪（分析师） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300 | | 创业板指 | wumengdi@kysec.cn | | 60% | | | 证书编号：S0790521070001 | | 40% | | | 观点精粹 | | 20% | | | | | 0% | | | 总量视角 | | -20% | | | 【宏观经济】加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度——宏观周报-20251221 | | -40% | | | 【宏观经济】核心服务带动美国通胀超预期下行——美国11月CPI点评-20251219 | | 2024-12 | 2025-04 | 2025-08 | 【策略】牛市眼光看后市，震荡思维买当下——投资策略周报-20251221 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | | 【固定收益】政府性基金支出当月同比转正——2025 年 月财政数据点评 11 | | 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | | | -20251219 | | 行业名称 | | 涨跌幅(%) | 【金融工程 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [2][5] Core Views - The REITs market experienced a weekly pullback across all sectors, but the issuance market remains active. The China Securities REITs (closing) index was 773.15, down 1.66% year-on-year and down 3.06% month-on-month. The China Securities REITs total return index was 999.19, up 5.09% year-on-year but down 2.85% month-on-month. The trading volume for the REITs market reached 521 million shares, a year-on-year decrease of 30.99%, with a transaction value of 2.302 billion yuan, down 20.73% year-on-year [5][7][28]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The China Securities REITs (closing) index decreased by 3.06% month-on-month, with a year-to-date increase of 2.21%. The index has underperformed the CSI 300 index, which has increased by 33.14%, resulting in an excess return of -30.93% [16][21]. Weekly Tracking - The REITs market trading volume for the week was 521 million shares, down 30.99% year-on-year, and the transaction value was 2.302 billion yuan, down 20.73% year-on-year. The turnover rate for the week was 1.95%, a decrease of 2.66 percentage points year-on-year [28][32]. Sector Performance - Weekly performance for various REITs sectors showed declines: affordable housing REITs down 4.31%, environmental REITs down 0.96%, highway REITs down 5.20%, industrial park REITs down 1.62%, warehousing and logistics REITs down 1.40%, energy REITs down 3.13%, and consumer REITs down 2.02%. Monthly performance also reflected declines across these sectors [39][56]. Issuance Tracking - There are currently 14 REITs funds awaiting listing, with the issuance market remaining active. Notable applications include the Huatai Sanxia Clean Energy REIT and the E Fund Guangxi Beitou Highway REIT [8][60].

Group 1: Investment Opportunities in Rocket Core Components - The manufacturing cost of rockets is concentrated in engines, storage tanks, and fairings, with liquid engines accounting for approximately 50% of the total cost[3] - The storage tanks, which hold liquid hydrogen and liquid oxygen, represent about 15-25% of the rocket's cost and make up 60% of the rocket's mass[3][26] - Fairings, located at the top of the rocket, account for about 10% of the total cost and protect payloads during launch[17] Group 2: Cost Breakdown of Falcon 9 Launch - The total manufacturing cost of a Falcon 9 rocket is estimated to be between $50 million and $60 million, with the booster alone costing $30 million to $40 million[50] - The recovery and refurbishment cost of the rocket after launch ranges from $250,000 to $2 million, depending on the extent of repairs needed[50] - The average launch cost, when reusing the Falcon 9, can drop to approximately $2.89 million, significantly reducing the overall expenses[51] Group 3: Market Performance and Trends - This week, the A-share market experienced a general decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,890.45 points, up by only 0.03%[53] - The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 5.74 billion shares, with a total transaction value of 880.24 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.86% decrease in liquidity compared to the previous week[53][54] - The micro-cap stocks outperformed major indices, indicating a shift in market dynamics favoring smaller companies[3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the social services industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the activation of cross-border trade and duty-free consumption in Hainan following the official launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port on December 18, 2025, which is expected to enhance the investment environment for high-end manufacturing and biomedicine sectors [14][21] - The short drama market is experiencing significant growth, with overseas short drama in-app purchases projected to reach $3.8 billion in 2025, reflecting a 153% year-on-year increase, indicating a shift in content consumption patterns [22][25] - The fashion consumption sector is evolving, with professional sports brands like Lululemon becoming new benchmarks for the middle class, driven by the integration of functionality, fashion expression, and lifestyle [32][33] - The "oil skincare" segment is witnessing high growth, with Lin Qingxuan emerging as the leading brand, achieving a 212% growth in GMV across three platforms in 2025 [40][41] Summary by Sections Hainan Free Trade Port - The Hainan Free Trade Port's launch has led to a direct increase in cross-border trade, with zero tariff policies driving significant growth in imports, particularly in high-end manufacturing and biomedicine [14][15] - Duty-free sales have surged, with a 61% year-on-year increase in shopping amounts on the first day of the port's operation, indicating strong consumer demand [15][18] Short Drama Market - The overseas short drama market is projected to exceed traditional film box office revenues, with a notable increase in demand from the Middle East, which is becoming a new market for Chinese short dramas [22][27] - The platform DramaBite, under Chi Zi Cheng Technology, has seen significant user engagement, with 3.46 million downloads in the past year [30] Fashion Consumption - The report identifies three key trends in fashion consumption: the integration of sports into daily life, the rise of outdoor brands as fashion symbols, and the awakening of specific consumer needs for tailored products [32] - Online sales for professional sports brands have shown remarkable growth, with Lululemon achieving over 5 billion yuan in online sales and maintaining a 51% growth rate [33][36] Oil Skincare Segment - The "oil skincare" market is projected to grow significantly, with the market size for facial and eye oils expected to exceed 11 billion yuan by 2025, driven by changing consumer perceptions [40][42] - Lin Qingxuan leads the market with a 12.4% share, supported by a robust supply chain and innovative product development [41][60]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the automotive industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The automotive sector is experiencing a significant shift with the approval of the first batch of L3 autonomous driving models in China, marking a transition from testing to commercial application [5][13] - Changan Automobile has achieved over 1 million annual sales of new energy vehicles, aiming for 5 million by 2030, indicating strong growth potential in the electric vehicle market [5][14] - The collaboration between Lantu Motors and CATL aims to enhance battery technology, which is crucial for the competitiveness of electric vehicles [5][15] - The automotive industry is witnessing a competitive landscape with various companies launching new models and technologies, including Tesla's advancements in autonomous driving and the introduction of new electric models by other manufacturers [5][18][21] Industry News Highlights - The first L3 autonomous driving models, Deep Blue SL03 and Arcfox Alpha S, have received approval for pilot testing in Beijing and Chongqing [5][13] - Changan Automobile's new energy vehicle sales have surpassed 1 million units, with a target of 5 million by 2030 [5][14] - Lantu Motors and CATL have signed a ten-year cooperation agreement to prioritize advanced battery technology [5][15] - Ford has terminated a significant battery supply agreement with LG Energy Solution, reflecting a strategic shift in its electric vehicle business [5][17] - The domestic Tesla Model Y L has received EU certification and is expected to enter the international market in 2026 [5][18] - SAIC MG is projected to exceed 300,000 units in European sales by 2025, maintaining its position as the top-selling Chinese brand in Europe [5][19] - Xiaomi is investing over 100 million yuan to subsidize dealers, accelerating its nationwide channel layout [5][20] Market Performance - The automotive sector's performance this week shows a slight increase of 0.13%, ranking 19th among A-share industries [6][28] - The passenger vehicle index has seen a decline of 1.64%, while the commercial vehicle index decreased by 0.43% [6] - The automotive parts index increased by 1.12%, indicating a positive trend in this segment [6] Investment Recommendations - For passenger vehicles, the demand for domestic high-end luxury cars is exceeding expectations, with recommended stocks including JAC Motors and Seres, while Geely is identified as a beneficiary [7] - In the automotive parts sector, profitability is expected to improve, with recommended stocks including Desay SV, Zhejiang Xiantong, and Meili Technology [7]

《煤价合理才是常态，稳煤价逻辑依 旧—行业周报》-2025.12.14 《重视煤价四段轮推断，稳煤价依旧 —行业周报》-2025.12.7 《煤价第四目标上穿过程兑现，稳价 逻辑依旧—行业周报》-2025.11.30 张绪成（分析师） 程镱（分析师） zhangxucheng@kysec.cn 煤炭 2025 年 12 月 21 日 重视煤价合理才是常态，稳煤价逻辑依旧 ——行业周报 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 煤炭 沪深300 相关研究报告 证书编号：S0790520020003 chengyi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525090001 本周要闻回顾：重视煤价合理才是常态，稳煤价逻辑依旧 动力煤方面：动力煤价格小跌，截至 12 月 19 日，秦港 Q5500 动力煤平仓价为 703 元/吨，环比下降 50 元/吨，广州港价格为 780 元/吨，前期已经完成了我们估算的 第四目标价格区间，即 800-860 元区间。目前回调至煤电盈利均分的 750 元价格以 下，我们预计未 ...

电力 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 2025 年 12 月 21 日 数据来源：聚源 -14% -7% 0% 7% 14% 22% 29% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 电力 沪深300 相关研究报告 《日本首份聚变供电协议签署，BEST 订单持续释放—可控核聚变行业周 报》-2025.12.13 《九院中标 5 亿氚工厂项目，NIF 完 成第十次点火—可控核聚变行业周 报》-2025.12.7 《BEST 研究计划首次发布，美国启动 创世纪计划—可控核聚变行业周报》 -2025.11.30 TMTG 并购 TAE 打造全球首家商业聚变上市公司 ——行业周报 风险提示：商业化进度不及预期、资金投入不及预期、技术路线变化风险。 | 周磊（分析师） | 黄懿轩（联系人） | | --- | --- | | zhoulei1@kysec.cn | huangyixuan1@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790524090002 | 证书编号：S0790125070014 | 板块回顾：多数细分环节下跌，个股跌多涨少，回吐月内涨幅 本周（20251215-20251219）可控核聚变 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the pig price is supported by both supply and demand factors as the year-end approaches, with expectations for an upward trend in prices before the Spring Festival [3][4] - The report highlights that the pig farming sector is experiencing losses, which may accelerate the reduction of stock, while the pet sector is seeing a rise in domestic brands due to consumption upgrades and tariff barriers [5][29] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - As of December 21, 2025, the national average price of live pigs is 11.41 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.15 yuan/kg and a year-on-year decrease of 3.71 yuan/kg [3][13] - The average weight of pigs sold is 130.18 kg per head, with a week-on-week increase of 0.55 kg [3][13] - The supply of pork may be tight leading up to the Spring Festival, with expectations for prices to rise [3][13] Weekly Insights - The pig farming sector is facing increasing losses, and the reduction of stock may accelerate due to various factors including policy and disease [5][24] - Recommendations include companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others in the pig farming sector [5][24] Market Performance (December 15-19) - The agricultural index increased by 0.87%, outperforming the market by 0.84 percentage points [6][30] - Leading stocks include Zhongxing Junye (+18.42%), Xibu Muye (+14.64%), and Xiwang Food (+13.84%) [6][30] Price Tracking (December 15-19) - The average price of live pigs is 11.58 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.10 yuan/kg [7][37] - The average price of piglets is 19.02 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease of 0.02 yuan/kg [7][37] - The average price of white feathered chickens is 7.35 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.27 yuan/kg [7][37] Key News (December 15-19) - The Ministry of Commerce announced anti-dumping duties on imported pork and related products from the EU starting December 17, 2025 [35]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the real estate market is moving towards stabilization, supported by various policies aimed at balancing supply and demand. Despite potential minor fluctuations in housing prices, the overall trend is expected to be stable due to proactive fiscal and monetary policies [3][56]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy Initiatives - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MOHURD) is promoting a balanced real estate market by establishing a mechanism that links population changes to housing demand, land supply, and financial resource allocation [4][12]. - Guangzhou is fully promoting green buildings, aiming for all new civil buildings to meet at least a two-star green building standard by 2035 [13]. 2. Sales Performance - In the 51st week of 2025, the transaction area of new homes in 68 major cities increased by 30% month-on-month but decreased by 32% year-on-year, totaling 2.82 million square meters. Year-to-date, the cumulative transaction area is 115.54 million square meters, down 18% year-on-year [5][17]. - The transaction area for second-hand homes in 20 cities was 1.90 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 25% but a month-on-month increase [34]. 3. Investment Trends - In the 51st week of 2025, the land transaction area in 100 major cities reached 8.13 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 12%, with a transaction premium rate of 1.7% [38]. - First-tier cities saw a slight decrease in land transaction area by 1%, while second-tier cities increased by 37% [39]. 4. Financing Conditions - The issuance of domestic credit bonds decreased significantly, with a total of 4.33 billion yuan issued in the 51st week, down 57% year-on-year and 68% month-on-month [44][56]. 5. Market Performance - The real estate index fell by 0.41% during the week, underperforming compared to the broader market, which saw the CSI 300 index decline by 0.28% [49].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the sustained high demand in the storage sector, with expectations for H200 to be approved for export to China [3] - AI demand continues to validate and enhance computing power requirements, with significant growth in domestic AI chip production [5][8] - The approval of L3 level autonomous driving vehicles marks a critical step towards commercialization in China, with Robotaxi services expected to accelerate [6][30] Summary by Sections Internet - The daily usage of tokens for Doubao has surpassed 50 trillion, indicating deep penetration of large models [17] - The release of the "Internet Platform Pricing Behavior Rules" aims to regulate price competition and protect consumer rights, shifting focus from low prices to ensuring merchant profits and promoting consumption upgrades [20][21] - Recommended stocks include Alibaba-W, Pinduoduo, and Baidu Group-SW, with Tencent Holdings as a beneficiary [58] AI - Google TPU's commercial potential is further confirmed with Anthropic's significant orders, totaling $21 billion, indicating strong demand for AI products [21] - The launch of the Skill paradigm by Anthropic aims to enhance the capabilities of AI agents, facilitating easier development and deployment of complex AI applications [22][26] - The market for Agentic AI is projected to grow significantly, with a potential market size of 1.8 trillion yuan by 2030 [22] Intelligent Driving - The first L3 level autonomous driving models have received approval for trial operation, indicating a shift from testing to commercial application [30] - Robotaxi services are expected to accelerate due to technological advancements, cost reductions, and supportive policies [35] - Key players in the Robotaxi market include Baidu, Xiaopeng Motors, and WeRide, with ongoing trials and commercial operations in various cities [43][44]