Group 1 - The report discusses the short covering strategy in the bond market, specifically how the borrowing balance of individual bonds relative to other bonds of the same maturity can lead to downward pressure on interest rates [2][3][19] - The borrowing balance of a specific bond typically follows a pattern where it starts at zero upon issuance, increases as it becomes an active bond, peaks, and then declines as it transitions to a less active status [19][20] - When the borrowing amount of an active bond is significantly lower than that of a less active bond, and if interest rates decline, short sellers of the less active bond will need to cover their positions, leading to additional buying and compression of the yield spread between the two bonds [3][19][20] Group 2 - The report analyzes the practical application of the short covering strategy on key maturities, including 10Y government bonds, 10Y policy bank bonds, and 30Y government bonds, concluding that the 10Y policy bank bond shows the best results [6][31][40] - The 10Y policy bank bond's active bond (250210) switched on May 27, with the less active bond (250205) showing a borrowing amount of approximately 140 billion, which later equalized around 700 billion, while the yield spread compressed from 4-5 basis points to 1.2 basis points [6][31][40] - The analysis indicates that the 30Y government bond's short covering strategy results are less favorable than the 10Y policy bank bond due to greater sensitivity to yield spread expectations and less significant changes in borrowing amounts [40][41]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the energy storage sector, highlighting significant investment opportunities due to high demand and favorable policies in various regions [2]. Core Insights - The energy storage market is experiencing robust growth, driven by increasing demand in China, India, and Europe, with substantial project approvals and installations expected in the coming years [5][40]. - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies in facilitating the growth of energy storage systems, particularly in India and Europe, where mandatory storage requirements and subsidies are being implemented [27][64]. Demand Side - In May 2025, China's newly installed energy storage capacity reached 15.85 GWh, marking a year-on-year increase of 228% [14]. - India's energy storage market is projected to exceed 2 GWh in installations for the fiscal year 2025-26, supported by mandatory grid connection requirements [29][30]. - The report notes that the European market is also showing signs of recovery, with increased demand for residential storage systems [49]. Supply Side - As of May 2025, the average price for 2-hour and 4-hour energy storage systems in China was 0.550 and 0.478 CNY/Wh, respectively, indicating a month-on-month change of -6.6% and +7.5% [4]. - The report highlights that the average tender capacity for energy storage projects in China reached 597.3 MWh in June 2025, reflecting a significant increase of 122% month-on-month [26]. - In Germany, the energy storage market is characterized by a notable increase in large-scale storage installations, with 115 MWh added in June 2025, a year-on-year increase of 387% [52]. Regional Highlights - In India, the government is pushing for rapid deployment of energy storage systems, with a total of 36 projects amounting to 34.97 GWh tendered by June 2025 [29]. - The report indicates that the UK has approved new energy storage projects with a total capacity of 2.87 GW in May 2025, contributing to a planned capacity of over 17 GWh [65]. - In the Czech Republic, the total installed capacity of photovoltaic systems with storage exceeded 2 GWh by the end of 2024, with a significant portion of new installations coming from residential systems [72].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The potential negative factors for the current bond market come from the fundamentals, including economic data disclosure and the progress of Sino-US negotiations. Under the consensus expectation, it is difficult to say that the bond market will reverse. Attention should be paid to the changes in bond market expectations caused by event shocks [2]. - The sentiment index of fixed-income sellers has reached a new high this year, while buyers mainly expect the market to fluctuate, and their sentiment has declined for three consecutive weeks [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Seller and Buyer Markets 1.1 Seller Market Sentiment Index and Interest Rate Bonds - This week, the weighted tracking index was 0.47, showing a mostly bullish view but lower than last week. The unweighted tracking index was 0.68, up 0.09 from last week. Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral-to-bullish view, with 18 bullish, 6 neutral, and 1 bearish [10]. - 72% of institutions are bullish, with keywords such as weak credit, slow economic recovery, external demand shocks, loose monetary policy, low supply pressure in July, and opportunities for a bullish flattening of the curve after the short end declines [4][10]. - 24% of institutions are neutral, with keywords such as the neutral impact of restarting treasury bonds, and potential disturbances from the stock-bond seesaw and unexpected Sino-US negotiations [4][10]. - 4% of institutions are bearish, with the view that the central bank's bond purchases are not the reason for the decline in interest rates, and the economic recovery in the second half of 2025 is expected to drive up prices and interest rates [4][10]. 1.2 Buyer Market Sentiment Index and Interest Rate Bonds - This week, the tracking sentiment index was 0.13, showing a mostly neutral view and lower than last week. Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral-to-bullish view, with 5 bullish and 18 neutral [11]. - 22% of institutions are bullish, with keywords such as loose funds and a possible quarter-on-quarter weakening of the economic fundamentals in the third quarter [11]. - 78% of institutions are neutral, with keywords such as the reduced expectation of broad credit after the second-quarter monetary policy meeting and the suppression of bond market sentiment by the equity market [11]. 1.3 Credit Bonds - Market hot topics include the recovery of wealth management scale and loose funds. The recovery of wealth management scale may further improve the demand for credit bonds, and loose funds, combined with weak fundamentals, support the overall strength of the bond market and a decline in benchmark interest rates [17]. 1.4 Convertible Bonds - This week, institutions generally hold a neutral-to-bullish view, with 8 bullish and 6 neutral [18]. - 57% of institutions are bullish, believing that with the new bond supply not accelerating significantly on the issuance side, the convertible bond market scale may gradually shrink in the second half of the year, and medium and large-cap convertible bonds among high-quality existing and newly issued bonds are worth attention [18]. - 43% of institutions are neutral, stating that there is still uncertainty about the US tariff increase, and the allocation value of convertible bonds will be better reflected after the valuation is moderately digested [18]. 2. Treasury Bond Futures Tracking 2.1 Futures Trading - Futures prices showed mixed trends. As of July 4, the prices of TS/TF/T/TL treasury bond contracts were 102.51 yuan, 106.26 yuan, 109.10 yuan, and 121.20 yuan respectively, with changes of -0.03 yuan, -0.01 yuan, +0.05 yuan, and +0.31 yuan compared to last Friday [21]. - The trading volume of treasury bond futures generally increased. As of July 4, from a 5MA perspective, the trading volumes of TS/TF/T/TL futures contracts were 640 billion yuan, 622 billion yuan, 766 billion yuan, and 988 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +3.04 billion yuan, +30.63 billion yuan, +77.98 billion yuan, and -19.99 billion yuan compared to last Friday [21]. - The trading-to-holding ratio of treasury bond futures generally increased. As of July 4, from a 5MA perspective, the trading-to-holding ratios of TS/TF/T/TL futures contracts were 0.27, 0.40, 0.38, and 0.85 respectively, with changes of +0.01, +0.03, +0.04, and -0.03 compared to last Friday [22]. 2.2 Spot Bond Trading - The turnover rate of 30-year treasury bonds decreased. On July 4, the turnover rate was 4.03%, down 3.90 percentage points from last week and up 0.61 percentage points from Monday, with an average weekly turnover rate of 4.21%. The weekly average turnover rate of interest rate bonds decreased, and the turnover rate on July 4 was 0.93%, down 0.09 percentage points from last week and up 0.28 percentage points from Monday [29]. - The turnover rate of 10-year China Development Bank bonds increased. On July 4, the turnover rate was 4.91%, up 0.45 percentage points from last week and up 1.60 percentage points from Monday [32]. 2.3 Basis Trading - The basis generally narrowed, while the net basis widened across the board. As of July 4, the basis (CTD) of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts were -0.02 yuan, 0.001 yuan, 0.14 yuan, and 0.25 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.05 yuan, +0.05 yuan, +0.16 yuan, and -0.07 yuan compared to last Friday [39]. - In terms of the net basis, the net basis of main contracts widened. As of July 4, the net basis (CTD) of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts were -0.05 yuan, -0.06 yuan, -0.11 yuan, and -0.11 yuan respectively, with changes of -0.01 yuan, -0.01 yuan, -0.07 yuan, and -0.12 yuan compared to last Friday [41]. - In terms of IRR, the IRR of T and TL main contracts increased, while the others decreased. As of July 4, the IRR (CTD) of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts were 1.65%, 1.69%, 1.89%, and 1.80% respectively, with changes of -0.20%, -0.23%, +0.03%, and +0.14% compared to last Friday [41]. 2.4 Inter-period and Inter-variety Spreads - Inter-period spreads showed mixed trends. As of July 4, the spreads between the near and far months of TS/TF/T/TL contracts were -0.12 yuan, -0.08 yuan, -0.08 yuan, and 0.13 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.01 yuan, -0.005 yuan, -0.07 yuan, and -0.01 yuan compared to last Friday [48]. - Inter-variety spreads of main futures contracts all narrowed. As of July 4, 2*TS - TF, 2*TF - T, 4*TS - T, and 3*T - TL were 98.77 yuan, 103.39 yuan, 300.92 yuan, and 206.13 yuan respectively, with changes of -0.06 yuan, -0.07 yuan, -0.19 yuan, and -0.14 yuan compared to last Friday [48].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown impressive sales performance in May 2025, with bus sales reaching 5,919 units, a year-on-year increase of 24.8%, and production of 5,528 units, a year-on-year increase of 30.0% [6] - The domestic bus market is currently in a recovery phase, supported by policies encouraging the replacement of old vehicles, which is expected to drive growth in public transport buses [6] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growth in both domestic and overseas markets, particularly in the export of new energy buses [6] - The company has a strong competitive advantage due to its comprehensive sales, service, and parts network, as well as its focus on high-end product development [6] - The projected net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 is expected to be 48.0 billion, 54.4 billion, and 62.9 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17%, 13%, and 16% [6] Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 37.2 billion in 2024 to 53.8 billion in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13.4% [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 4.116 billion in 2024 to 6.288 billion in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [5] - The gross margin is projected to improve from 22.9% in 2024 to 24.2% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [5] - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 14.18 in 2024 to 9.47 in 2027, suggesting potential undervaluation as earnings grow [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the performance of the electronic industry indices, with the semiconductor packaging and testing sector showing the best performance with an increase of 8.32% [4] - The company Mu Xi has become a leading domestic high-performance GPU manufacturer after five years of development, with significant advancements in its product offerings and market presence [16] - The company has successfully transitioned from research and development to production and sales, establishing a comprehensive business model [18] Summary by Sections Section 1: Company Overview - Mu Xi has undergone three development phases, focusing on GPU technology and building a robust team, leading to the establishment of a strong technological foundation [16] - The company launched its first intelligent computing inference chip, the Xi Si N100, in January 2022, which was followed by mass production in April 2023 [18] Section 2: Product Development and Revenue Growth - The product matrix has expanded significantly, with the Xi Si N series and Xi Yun C series GPUs entering mass production, contributing to rapid revenue growth [19] - The core revenue source is the Xi Yun C series training and inference GPU products, which accounted for 30.09%, 68.99%, and 97.55% of total revenue in 2023, 2024, and Q1 2025 respectively [6] Section 3: Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Mu Xi has established a deep ecosystem and commercial layout, delivering nine intelligent computing clusters that cover various regions and applications [21] - The company has attracted significant investment from both state-owned and market-oriented institutions, enhancing its financial strength and market position [10] Section 4: Future Prospects - The company is focusing on enhancing its domestic supply chain collaboration and has plans for the next generation of GPUs, including the Xi Yun C600 and C700, expected to enter production in 2025 and 2027 respectively [11][9] - Mu Xi's products are positioned to meet the growing demand for AI computing power, with a cumulative sales volume of over 25,000 GPUs by Q1 2025 [19]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - Major gaming companies continue to show strong revenue performance, and the cross-border payment concept may see a catalyst [1] - The report highlights significant developments in AI, both domestically and internationally, with a focus on new model releases and investments in AI infrastructure [4][5][41] Weekly Market Review - From June 30 to July 4, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.4%, the ChiNext Index increased by 1.5%, and the CSI 300 Index saw a rise of 1.54%. In contrast, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 2.34% [3][26] - The media index increased by 2.39%, while the Hang Seng Internet Technology Index dropped by 2.37% [26] AI Sector Developments - NVIDIA's DLSS technology is set to receive a major update with a new "Transformer model," which is expected to significantly reduce memory usage [41] - Baidu's Wenxin large model 4.5 series has been officially open-sourced, featuring models with activation parameters of 47B and 3B [41] - Zhipu AI announced a strategic investment of 1 billion yuan and the release of the GLM-4.1V-Thinking visual language model [42] Domestic AI Highlights - Tencent Yuanqi has integrated WeChat Pay MCP, enabling developers to add various functionalities to smart agents [9] - ByteDance's EX-4D framework has been released, allowing for the generation of high-quality 4D video sequences from single-view videos [42] Semiconductor Sector Updates - SK Hynix announced its collaboration with Intel to supply HBM4 products for future AI chips [10] - CoreWeave has become the first large-scale AI cloud provider to deploy NVIDIA's GB300 NVL72 system [44] E-commerce and Consumer Insights - TEMU reported a significant increase in monthly active users, reaching 416.5 million, a year-on-year growth of 68% [12] - Alibaba announced a private placement of zero-coupon exchangeable bonds totaling HKD 12.023 billion to support cloud computing infrastructure [16] Gaming Industry Performance - The total revenue of the top 50 gaming products in June was approximately 15.3 billion yuan, a decrease of about 5% compared to May [19] - Tencent Games maintained 11 products in the top 50, consistent with the previous month [19]

Group 1 - Industry Investment Rating: Overweight [1] - Core Viewpoint: The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 16th with a fluctuation of 0.80%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.60 percentage points [4][22] - Key Recommendations: Focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sugar substitutes, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [4] Group 2 - Synthetic Biology: A pivotal moment is approaching, with low-energy products expected to gain a longer growth window due to the energy structure adjustment [4] - Refrigerants: The third-generation refrigerants are entering a high prosperity cycle, with supply constraints and stable demand growth anticipated [5] - Electronic Specialty Gases: The domestic market faces a contradiction between rapid upgrades in wafer manufacturing and insufficient high-end electronic specialty gas capacity, presenting significant domestic substitution opportunities [6][8] - Light Hydrocarbon Chemicals: A global trend towards lighter raw materials in the olefin industry is noted, with a shift from heavy naphtha to lighter ethane and propane [8] - COC Polymers: The domestic industrialization process is accelerating, driven by breakthroughs in local enterprises and a shift in downstream industries to domestic production [9] - Potash Fertilizer: Prices are expected to bottom out and rebound due to supply reductions and increased demand from farmers [10] - MDI Market: The oligopoly structure is expected to improve, with demand steadily increasing and a favorable supply outlook anticipated [12]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the current net financing by major banks has reached an unprecedented level of 5.3 trillion yuan, which is historically high and linked to the central bank's liquidity support [2][12][16] - It notes that the trend of easing liquidity can be linearly extrapolated, and any disruption to this trend would require additional variables [3][13] - The report suggests that if the liquidity remains loose in July, the long-term interest rates may decline further, with the current 10Y-1Y yield spread at 30 basis points, the highest since mid-February [3][12][13] Group 2 - The report indicates that the leverage ratio in the bond market has risen to 107.85%, reflecting an increase in borrowing activity [23] - It mentions that the average daily transaction volume of pledged repos was approximately 7.6 trillion yuan, with overnight repos accounting for 89.71% of the total [27][31] - The report states that the median duration of medium- to long-term bond funds remains at 2.87 years, indicating stability in fund management strategies [49]

策略研究 周度报告 "反内卷"行情能否成为新主线？ [Table_RptDate] 报告日期： 2025-07-06 [Table_Author] 分析师：郑小霞 执业证书号：S0010520080007 电话：13391921291 邮箱：zhengxx@hazq.com 分析师：刘超 执业证书号：S0010520090001 电话：13269985073 邮箱：liuchao@hazq.com 分析师：张运智 执业证书号：S0010523070001 电话：13699270398 邮箱：zhangyz@hazq.com 分析师：任思雨 执业证书号：S0010523070003 电话：18501373409 邮箱：rensy@hazq.com 分析师：陈博 执业证书号：S0010525070002 电话：18811134382 邮箱：chenbo@hazq.com 相关报告 1.策略月报《扰动在前，提升在后 — 2025 年 7 月 A 股市场研判及配置机 会》2025-06-29 2.中期策略《积聚向上突破的力量 — 2025 年 A 股中期投资策略》2025-06- 22 主要观点 ⚫ 短期存在外部风险 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the synthetic biology industry Core Insights - The synthetic biology sector is experiencing a global technological revolution, providing innovative solutions to major challenges such as health, climate change, and food security, as highlighted by the National Development and Reform Commission's "14th Five-Year Plan for Bioeconomic Development" [4] - The Huazhong Securities Synthetic Biology Index, which includes 58 companies across various sectors, has seen a decline of 3.42% recently, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index [5][17] - The first local regulations for synthetic biology manufacturing were passed in Changde, Hunan, aimed at promoting industry development and addressing issues like talent shortages and approval efficiency [8][10] Summary by Sections 1.1 Secondary Market Performance - The synthetic biology sector's stocks have shown poor performance, with a recent decline of 3.42%, ranking 32nd among sectors [17] - The top-performing companies include Jincheng Pharmaceutical (+11%), Xinhai Hengli (+10%), and Dongbao Biological (+7%) [18] 1.2 Company Business Progress - Kexin Pharmaceutical's CAR-T therapy targeting Claudin18.2 has received regulatory acceptance for market application, offering new treatment options for advanced gastric cancer patients [23] - Angel Yeast announced a significant investment of 5.56 billion yuan to expand its biological manufacturing center and enhance its product lines [23] - Internationally, Covestro acquired Swiss film technology company Pontacol to strengthen its specialty materials business [25] 1.3 Industry Financing Tracking - The synthetic biology sector is witnessing accelerated financing, with nearly 100 companies completing new funding rounds since the beginning of 2025 [31] - Zhejiang Rongrui Technology completed nearly 100 million yuan in Pre-A financing, focusing on green biological manufacturing [31] - Avantium, a Dutch biobased PEF company, secured 10 million euros to alleviate short-term liquidity pressures [31]