Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's overall performance in FY25Q4 showed a revenue of 236.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%, slightly below Bloomberg's expectations. Adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net profit reached 41.8 billion yuan (up 36%, margin of 18%) and 29.8 billion yuan (up 22%, margin of 13%), respectively, both exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 1.3% and 1.6% [4][5] - The Taobao Group's revenue was 101.4 billion yuan (up 9%), exceeding Bloomberg's expectations by 3.6%, with adjusted EBITA of 41.7 billion yuan (up 8%). The international digital commerce group's revenue was 33.6 billion yuan (up 22%), below expectations by 4.0%, with adjusted EBITA of -3.6 billion yuan (up 12.5%) [5] - The cloud intelligence group's revenue was 30.1 billion yuan (up 18%), slightly above Bloomberg's expectations by 0.8%, with adjusted EBITA of 2.4 billion yuan (up 69%) [6] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - In FY25Q4, the company reported a revenue of 236.5 billion yuan, with adjusted EBITDA of 41.8 billion yuan and adjusted net profit of 29.8 billion yuan, both showing significant year-on-year growth [4][5] Segment Performance - Taobao Group: Revenue of 101.4 billion yuan (up 9%), adjusted EBITA of 41.7 billion yuan (up 8%) [5] - International Digital Commerce Group: Revenue of 33.6 billion yuan (up 22%), adjusted EBITA of -3.6 billion yuan [5] - Local Life Group: Revenue of 16.1 billion yuan (up 10%), adjusted EBITA of -2.3 billion yuan [5] - Cainiao Group: Revenue of 21.6 billion yuan (down 12%), adjusted EBITA of -0.6 billion yuan [5] - Cloud Intelligence Group: Revenue of 30.1 billion yuan (up 18%), adjusted EBITA of 2.4 billion yuan [6] - Entertainment Group: Revenue of 5.6 billion yuan (up 12%), adjusted EBITA of 0.04 billion yuan [5] Cloud Business Growth - The cloud business showed accelerated growth with a revenue of 30.1 billion yuan (up 18%), surpassing Bloomberg's expectations. The AI business has seen continuous triple-digit growth for seven consecutive quarters [6] Future Projections - Revenue projections for FY2026-2028 are 1,086.7 billion yuan, 1,200.6 billion yuan, and 1,315.7 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 9.1%, 10.5%, and 9.6% respectively. Non-GAAP net profit is expected to be 169.3 billion yuan, 186.0 billion yuan, and 192.5 billion yuan for the same period [6][10]

- The report tracks the recent performance of the offline IPO market for the STAR Market, ChiNext, and the Main Board, assuming all stocks are hit and sold at the market average price on the first day of listing, ignoring the lock-up period restrictions [1][11] - Since 2025 until 2025/5/16, the IPO yield for a Class A 2 billion account is 1.32%, and for a Class B 2 billion account is 1.15%; for a Class A 10 billion account, the IPO yield is 0.30%, and for a Class B 10 billion account, the IPO yield is 0.27% [1][11] - The median number of valid quotation accounts for recent 20 new stocks is tracked, with the number of valid quotation accounts for Class A STAR Market new stocks around 3051, and for Class B around 1784; for Class A ChiNext new stocks around 3414, and for Class B around 2056; for Class A Main Board stocks around 3493, and for Class B around 2376 [2][23] - The average first-day increase for STAR Market stocks is 198.41%, and for ChiNext stocks is 227.46% [1][16] - The report measures the theoretical IPO yield for different scale accounts, assuming all stocks are hit and sold at the market average price on the first day of listing, ignoring the lock-up period restrictions [1][11] - The report lists the IPO results for recent new stocks, including the issuance price, issuance P/E ratio, industry P/E ratio, number of new shares issued, and the actual fundraising amount [25][26] - The report provides a calendar of recent IPOs, including the status of stocks waiting for inquiry, waiting for issuance price announcement, waiting for subscription, and waiting for listing [27][28][29] - The report calculates the full subscription yield for each stock, using the average winning rate of Class A institutions to estimate the yield when fully subscribed [35][37] - The report lists the monthly IPO yield and IPO yield rate for different scale Class A accounts, assuming all stock quotations are included, with a 90% fund utilization efficiency [42][43][44][45][46] - The report lists the monthly IPO yield and IPO yield rate for different scale Class B accounts, assuming all stock quotations are included, with a 90% fund utilization efficiency [47][48][49][50][51]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.674 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 4.62% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 863 million yuan, down 0.28% [4][5] - The compressor business showed steady growth, generating 2.030 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for 55.26% of total revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 4.31% [5] - The vacuum pump segment faced short-term pressure, with revenue of 1.346 billion yuan, a decline of 18.04% year-on-year, primarily due to overcapacity in the photovoltaic industry [5] - The company is focusing on R&D innovation to capture opportunities in the data center sector and is expanding its international market presence, with overseas revenue reaching 706 million yuan, an increase of 8.32% [6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a net operating cash flow of 112 million yuan, a significant decrease of 85.50% [4] - The forecast for revenue from 2025 to 2027 is 3.484 billion yuan, 3.568 billion yuan, and 3.774 billion yuan respectively, with net profit projections of 762 million yuan, 812 million yuan, and 893 million yuan [7] - The diluted EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is projected to be 1.42 yuan, 1.52 yuan, and 1.67 yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.89, 12.09, and 10.99 [7][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated stable performance, with a 2024 annual revenue of 575 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.48%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 125 million yuan, up 23.07% year-on-year [5][8] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 111 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.57%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 12.39% to 22.18 million yuan [5] - The calibration testing products are evolving, and the digital platform business is providing growth momentum, with applications expanding into various sectors including biomedicine and new energy [6][7] Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 665 million yuan, 770 million yuan, and 892 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 158 million yuan, 187 million yuan, and 221 million yuan [8][11] - The projected EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 0.74 yuan, 0.88 yuan, and 1.04 yuan respectively, with a current P/E ratio of 23, 20, and 16 for the respective years [8][11] - The gross margin is expected to improve from 64.7% in 2024 to 69.5% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [11][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has shown significant improvement in its performance in Q1 2025, with a notable increase in net profit compared to the previous year despite a decline in revenue [6] - The semiconductor segment has seen substantial growth, with sales revenue increasing by 94.65% year-on-year, indicating strong demand and successful product development [7] - The company is actively expanding its product lines and enhancing its R&D efforts, particularly in the semiconductor field, which is expected to drive future growth [8] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.565 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.59%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was -98 million yuan, a decline of 165.02% [5] - The gross margin for 2024 was 39.97%, down 8.98 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was -8.69%, a decrease of 12.37 percentage points [5] - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 689 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 64.92%, but the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 336.06% to 38 million yuan [6] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The forecast for operating revenue from 2025 to 2027 is 3.039 billion yuan, 3.554 billion yuan, and 4.369 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 194 million yuan, 308 million yuan, and 521 million yuan [11] - The projected diluted EPS for the same period is 0.69 yuan, 1.10 yuan, and 1.86 yuan, respectively [11] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on expanding its presence in the semiconductor testing equipment market, with a strategic partnership and investment in related companies to enhance its competitive edge [8] - The company is also diversifying its product offerings in the display and new energy sectors, although these segments are currently facing challenges [9][10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment in the bond market has shifted from "bullish but not buying" to a stage where some bulls are "wavering." The short - term trading themes are broad - based monetary policy and the fundamentals. The 10 - year Treasury bond is oscillating around 1.65% - 1.70%, and the bond market is likely to be range - bound in the short term. The impact of positive events on the bond market is rapid this year. The proportion of capital gain demand in the comprehensive return has been continuously increasing, so the duration should be maintained, and leverage can be appropriately increased if the funding rate declines [2]. - From the perspective of market sentiment, the bond market has changed from "bullish but not buying" to a stage where some bulls are "wavering." This week, some bulls have turned neutral, the number of institutions with bearish views has increased by one, and the sentiment index has declined [3]. - The fundamentals and broad - based monetary policy are the "battlefields" for the bulls and bears among the sellers. As of May 19, the number of fixed - income sellers with bullish views has decreased to 10, the number of those with bearish views has increased to 3, and the number of those with neutral views has risen to 17 [3]. - Among the buyers, those with neutral views also account for more than half, and the proportion of institutions with bullish views has decreased. The overall view of fixed - income buyers is neutral - bullish. Currently, there are 10 bullish, 16 neutral, and 3 bearish institutions [3]. - In the Treasury bond futures market, the positive arbitrage space for the TS contract has decreased, and it may still be in a premium state. One can consider participating in the game of the TS contract rising [6]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Seller and Buyer Markets 1.1 Seller Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - The seller sentiment index has decreased compared to last week. The weighted index this week is 0.18 (neutral - bullish, down 0.10 from last week), and the unweighted index is 0.28 (down 0.14 from last week). Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral - bullish view, with 10 bullish, 17 neutral, and 3 bearish. 33% of institutions are bullish, with keywords such as the long - term trend of Sino - US decoupling despite tariff fluctuations, a possible LPR cut this week, and the expected continuation of monetary easing; 57% are neutral, with keywords such as high macro - environment uncertainty, waiting for a new market trigger after the double - cut and tariff easing, and the bond market may have a narrow - range oscillation; 10% are bearish, with keywords such as the exhaustion of the double - cut benefits, the lack of support for the bond market reflected by the non - rising funding rate, and the central bank may take measures to maintain the bank's net interest margin and push up the long - term bond yield after the tariff cut [13]. 1.2 Buyer Market Sentiment Index and Interest - rate Bonds - The buyer sentiment index has decreased compared to last week. This week's sentiment index is 0.18 (neutral - bullish, down 0.22 from last week). Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral - bullish view, with 10 bullish, 16 neutral, and 3 bearish. 35% of institutions are bullish, with keywords such as continuous loosening of the funding side, the economy still needing policy support, and the reduction of funding costs; 55% are neutral, with keywords such as fluctuations in Sino - US economic and trade expectations, frequent policy disturbances, unclear fundamental expectations, differentiated interest - rate trends, limited adjustment space but repeated directions; 10% are bearish, with keywords such as the marginal weakening of easing expectations, the enhanced expectation of economic fundamental repair, frequent funding disturbances, and increased long - end supply pressure [14]. 1.3 Credit Bonds - Market hot topics include policies to promote science - and - technology innovation bonds and implicit debt accountability. Multiple departments have introduced policies to promote the construction of science - and - technology innovation bonds, and it is expected that future issuance increments will be for financial institutions and private enterprises, covering more science - and - technology innovation fields. The Ministry of Finance has emphasized local government implicit debt governance again, and the issuance supervision of urban investment bonds has become stricter, with risks being relatively controllable in the short term [18]. 1.4 Convertible Bonds - This week, institutions generally hold a neutral - bullish view, with 2 bullish and 6 neutral. 25% of institutions are bullish, with keywords such as the positive impact of the double - cut and the end of the earnings disclosure period, the increased risk appetite in the convertible bond market, and the strong equity market becoming an important support for convertible bonds; 75% are neutral, with keywords such as the current high valuation of convertible bonds, low cost - effectiveness, a possible range - bound oscillation pattern, and the need for incremental funds or overall underlying stock repair for a stronger market [20]. 2. Treasury Bond Futures Tracking 2.1 Futures Trading - In terms of futures prices, except for the increase in the TS contract price, the prices of other futures contracts have decreased. As of May 16, the prices of the Treasury TS/TF/T/TL contracts are 102.38 yuan, 105.72 yuan, 108.48 yuan, and 118.91 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.04 yuan, - 0.38 yuan, - 0.58 yuan, and - 1.46 yuan compared to last Friday. - In terms of Treasury bond futures open interest, except for the increase in the TS contract open interest, the open interest of other futures contracts has decreased. As of May 16, the open interest of the TS/TF/T/TL futures contracts is 84,000 lots, 79,000 lots, 100,000 lots, and 50,000 lots respectively, with changes of +702 lots, - 64,061 lots, - 76,980 lots, and - 31,940 lots compared to last Friday. - The trading volume of Treasury bond futures has increased across the board. As of May 16, from a 5 - day moving average perspective, the trading volumes of the TS/TF/T/TL futures contracts are 132.9 billion yuan, 98.5 billion yuan, 131.1 billion yuan, and 155.6 billion yuan respectively, with increases of 40.2 billion yuan, 25.9 billion yuan, 44.7 billion yuan, and 39.9 billion yuan compared to last Friday. - The trading volume - to - open - interest ratio of Treasury bond futures has increased across the board. As of May 16, from a 5 - day moving average perspective, the trading volume - to - open - interest ratios of the TS/TF/T/TL futures contracts are 1.01, 0.98, 1.03, and 2.58 respectively, with increases of 0.49, 0.49, 0.56, and 1.33 compared to last Friday [24][25]. 2.2 Spot Bond Trading - The turnover rate of 30 - year Treasury bonds has decreased. On May 16, the turnover rate was 2.32%, down 0.10 percentage points from last week and 0.41 percentage points from Monday, with a weekly average turnover rate of 3.33%. The turnover rate of interest - rate bonds has decreased. On May 16, the turnover rate was 0.89%, down 0.05 percentage points from last week and 0.22 percentage points from Monday. The turnover rate of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds has increased. On May 16, the turnover rate was 5.81%, up 0.17 percentage points from last week but down 1.54 percentage points from Monday [35][36]. 2.3 Basis Trading - In terms of basis trends in the past week, the basis of the TF main contract has narrowed, while the basis of other main contracts has widened. As of May 16, the basis (CTD) of the TS/TF/T/TL main contracts is - 0.07 yuan, +0.05 yuan, +0.11 yuan, and +0.17 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.03 yuan, +0.10 yuan, +0.17 yuan, and +0.05 yuan compared to last Friday. - In terms of net basis, the net basis of the TS main contract has widened, while the net basis of other main contracts has narrowed. As of May 16, the net basis (CTD) of the TS/TF/T/TL main contracts is - 0.05 yuan, +0.03 yuan, +0.02 yuan, and +0.03 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.06 yuan, +0.12 yuan, +0.08 yuan, and +0.09 yuan compared to last Friday. - In terms of IRR, the IRR of the TS contract has increased, while the IRR of other main contracts has decreased. As of May 16, the IRR (CTD) of the TS/TF/T/TL main contracts is 1.79%, 1.32%, 1.46%, and 1.39% respectively, with changes of +0.35%, - 1.02%, - 0.66%, and - 0.56% compared to last Friday. The TS main contract's basis is negative this week, and the weekly average IRR is 1.65%, at a relatively high level. Since the funding side is generally in a stage of loosening this week, with the weekly average DR007 at 1.54%, one can pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS contract [41][44][45]. 2.4 Inter - delivery Spread and Inter - product Spread - In terms of inter - delivery spread, the spread of the T contract has widened, while the spreads of other main futures contracts have narrowed. As of May 16, the near - month minus far - month spreads of the TS/TF/T/TL contracts are - 0.11 yuan, - 0.20 yuan, - 0.17 yuan, and - 0.34 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.09 yuan, +0.14 yuan, - 0.00 yuan, and +0.19 yuan compared to last Friday. - In terms of inter - product spread, the spreads of the 2*TS - TF and 4*TS - T contracts have widened, while the spreads of other main futures contracts have narrowed. As of May 16, the values of 2*TS - TF, 2*TF - T, 4*TS - T, and 3*T - TL are 99.04 yuan, 102.93 yuan, 301.01 yuan, and 206.50 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.43 yuan, - 0.25 yuan, +0.62 yuan, and - 0.29 yuan compared to last Friday. Currently, the downward space for long - term interest rates is limited. If the central bank takes measures to ease liquidity, there may be downward opportunities for the medium - and short - term. There is considerable room for gaming in short - term Treasury bond futures, and it is recommended to continue to pay attention to the strategy of going long on the short - end and short on the long - end to steepen the yield curve [51][52].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company is expected to maintain its cost leadership position while facing significant operational pressure due to declining prices across the photovoltaic industry [4][6] - The company has achieved a high-purity silicon annual production capacity of over 900,000 tons and solar cell production capacity exceeding 150 GW in 2024 [4] - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with significant advancements in technology expected to enhance production capabilities [6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 919.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34%, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 70.39 billion yuan [8][9] - The forecast for 2025 indicates a revenue of 666 billion yuan, with a projected net loss of 34.7 billion yuan, followed by a gradual recovery in subsequent years [7][9] - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 6.4%, with a significant drop in profitability reflected in the negative net profit margins for 2025 [9][10] Market Position and Production Capacity - The company holds a market share of approximately 30% in the silicon material segment, leading globally with a sales volume of 467,600 tons in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.76% [4][5] - In the battery segment, the company expects to sell 87.68 GW in 2024, achieving a global market share of about 14% [4] - The company’s module sales are projected to reach 45.71 GW in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 46.93% [5] Cost Management and Technological Advancements - The company has successfully reduced its comprehensive electricity consumption and silicon consumption to 46 kWh and 1.04 kg respectively, with cash costs for silicon production dropping to below 27,000 yuan per ton [6] - The company is advancing its TNC technology to enhance efficiency and reduce costs, with expectations for mainstream power levels to increase by over 25W by 2025 [6] - The company’s HJT pilot line is set to commence production in June 2024, with the highest module power reaching 790.8W [6]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: "TS Contract: Can It Still Be Used for Cash-and-Carry Arbitrage? - Interest Rate Weekly (Week 3 of May)" [1] - Report Date: May 19, 2025 [2] - Chief Analyst: Yan Ziqi, with a practice certificate number of S0010522030002 [2] - Research Assistant: Hong Ziyan, with a practice certificate number of S0010123060036 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - Since the implementation of reciprocal tariffs on April 3, the bond market's maturity yields have first decreased and then increased. Among treasury bond futures, the TL contract has been strong, while the TS/TF/T main contracts have declined [2]. - The weak performance of the TS contract is due to the previous large premium and the change in the expectation of loose monetary policy. The market's expectation of loose monetary policy changed significantly in Q1, and there are differences in the short - term expectation of loose monetary policy after the double - cut in May. The yield curve has flattened instead of steepening as expected [3]. - As of May 16, the basis of the TS main contract is - 0.07 yuan, and the IRR is 1.79%. The basis has significantly converged, and the IRR is close to the capital interest rate, so the cost - effectiveness of cash - and - carry arbitrage is insufficient [4]. - In the short term, the TS contract may still be in a premium state because of the continuous negative carry. The inversion between R001 and the 2 - year treasury bond maturity yield has decreased from about 60bp at the beginning of the year to 15bp on May 16, and the negative carry phenomenon of some varieties will continue [4]. - Considering that the tight capital situation in Q1 will not repeat, the short - term interest rate has a ceiling and the probability of a sharp decline is low. With the significant convergence of the basis, one can consider participating in the possible rise of the TS contract [4]. Group 4: Analyst and Research Assistant Introduction - Analyst Yan Ziqi is the assistant director of the Research Institute of Hua'an Securities and the chief analyst of fixed income. He has 8 years of experience in sell - side fixed income and equity research, and has won the second place in the 2024 Wind Gold Analyst and the best analyst in the 2023 Choice fixed income industry [12]. - Research Assistant Hong Ziyan is a master of financial engineering from the University of Southern California, covering macro - interest rates, institutional behavior, and treasury bond futures research [12].

Demand Side - In April 2025, domestic energy storage tendering reached 10.2GW/30.2GWh, with a year-on-year increase of 90% and a month-on-month decrease of 21%[11] - By March 2025, the domestic installed capacity was 5.35GW/12.9GWh, showing a year-on-year growth of 42.36% in power and 40.60% in capacity[10] - In India, by April 2025, 0.4GWh of battery storage systems were operational, with expectations to reach 0.5GWh by Q2 2025[25] Supply Side - The average price for a 2-hour energy storage system in April 2025 was 0.589 CNY/Wh, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 12%[4] - In Germany, the energy storage installed capacity in April 2025 was 308.8MWh, a year-on-year decrease of 39.33%[50] - The average single project capacity for domestic energy storage tenders in April 2025 was 284.9MWh, down 20.76% from the previous month[17] Market Trends - In the UK, the newly approved storage project capacity in April 2025 was 1.42GW/2.84GWh, with over 17GWh planned for grid connection throughout the year[63] - The average wholesale electricity price in the core nine European countries in April 2025 was 70.56 EUR/MWh, a year-on-year increase of 32.9%[39] - The total capacity of energy storage projects in India reached 31.64GWh by April 2025, with 19.5GWh tendered in the current year alone[25]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 meets expectations, maintaining a cost leadership position in the industry [1] - The photovoltaic industry is facing significant operational pressure due to a decline in prices across all segments, with polysilicon, silicon wafers, batteries, and modules experiencing price drops of 39%, 50%, 40%, and 29% respectively [4][6] - The company has established a high-purity polysilicon production capacity exceeding 900,000 tons and solar cell production capacity exceeding 150 GW in 2024 [4] - The company continues to reduce costs and improve efficiency, maintaining its industry-leading cost advantage [6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 919.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of -70.39 billion yuan [8][9] - The forecasted revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 666 billion yuan, 738 billion yuan, and 797 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -27.6%, +10.2%, and +8.6% [7][9] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be -34.7 billion yuan in 2025, -3.5 billion yuan in 2026, and 21.4 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting significant recovery in profitability by 2027 [7][9] - The gross margin is expected to be 6.4% in 2024, dropping to 1.5% in 2025, and gradually recovering to 8.9% by 2027 [9] Production and Market Position - The company is expected to sell 467,600 tons of polysilicon in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.76%, capturing approximately 30% of the national market share [4] - The sales volume of solar cells is projected to be 87.68 GW in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 8.70%, achieving a global market share of about 14% [4] - The sales volume of modules is expected to reach 45.71 GW in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 46.93% [5]