策略研究 周度报告 关税加征能否改变市场结构？ [Table_RptDate] 报告日期： 2025-04-06 执业证书号：S0010520090001 电话：13269985073 邮箱：liuchao@hazq.com 分析师：张运智 执业证书号：S0010523070001 电话：13699270398 邮箱：zhangyz@hazq.com 分析师：任思雨 执业证书号：S0010523070003 电话：18501373409 邮箱：rensy@hazq.com 相关报告 1.策略月报《风起浪动—2025 年 4 月 A 股市场研判及配置机会》2025-03-30 2.策略周报《历年二季度哪些板块容 易出现行情？—20250323 第 12 周》 3.策略周报《消费主线是否迎来机 会？—20250316 第 11 周》 4.策略周报《 Manus 能否为科技股行 情空中加油？—20250309 第 10 周》 主要观点 [Table_Author] 分析师：郑小霞 执业证书号：S0010520080007 电话：13391921291 邮箱：zhengxx@hazq.com 分析师：刘超 [Tabl ...

[Table_IndNameRptType] 轻工制造 行业周报 积极拥抱大模型，探索 AI 生态合作 行业评级：增 [Table_IndRank] 持 报告日期： 2025-04-06 [Table_Chart] 行业指数与沪深 300 走势比较 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 轻工制造（申万） 纺织服饰（申万） 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：徐偲 执业证书号：S0010523120001 邮箱：xucai@hazq.com 分析师：余倩莹 执业证书号：S0010524040004 邮箱：yuqianying@hazq.com [Table_Report] 相关报告 《行业周报：1-2 月出口增速回落， 呈现结构分化_20250331》 《行业周报：产品质量引关注，多维 升级驱动快消个护产业变革_202503 24》 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 周专题：积极拥抱大模型，探索 AI 生态合作 AI 革命下，大模型企业需要与实体企业共同探索 AI 生态合作。AI 革 命是继蒸汽革命、电力革命和信息革命之后的第四次重大技术变革， 在各个行业、领域、企业里面，在 AI 大 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 34.226 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.55%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.903 billion yuan, up 9.14% year-on-year [4] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 9.046 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.31% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.26%, with a net profit of 0.854 billion yuan, up 31.61% year-on-year and 3.52% quarter-on-quarter [5] - The company's performance in Q4 2024 improved due to increased production and sales of core products, despite a decline in gross margin [6] - The company has launched new production capacities in the adipic acid and melamine resin sectors, which are expected to drive future performance [7] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 4.358 billion, 4.893 billion, and 5.377 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11, 10, and 9 [10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a gross margin of 18.71%, down 2.14 percentage points year-on-year, with major products experiencing price declines [6] - The average prices for key products in 2024 showed a decline, with DMF, acetic acid, and urea prices decreasing by 14.4%, 11.7%, and 14.3% respectively [6] - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 46.658 billion yuan in 2024 to 65.822 billion yuan in 2027 [14] Production Capacity and Market Position - The company has a total production capacity of 526,600 tons for adipic acid, with ongoing projects expected to enhance its competitive position in the chemical new materials and fertilizer sectors [9] - The company maintains a leading market share in DMF production, with a domestic market share of 30% [9] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from new production capacities and a strong cost control advantage, with product prices currently at a low point [10] - The projected revenue growth for the next few years is expected to be 4.6% in 2025, 8.2% in 2026, and 2.3% in 2027 [11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 23.88 billion yuan for 2024, a decrease of 17.68% compared to 29.01 billion yuan in the previous year, and a total profit of 1.308 billion yuan, down 42.02% from 2.257 billion yuan in the previous year [4][5] - The decline in performance is attributed to multiple factors, including market conditions, industry cycles, and policy impacts, with significant demand from key clients in aerospace defense equipment not meeting expectations [5] - Despite the challenges, the company has established partnerships with leading eVTOL enterprises in the low-altitude economy sector, providing compliant airborne computers, avionics, sensors, and other mature products [5] Financial Summary - The company's projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.113 billion yuan, 1.243 billion yuan, and 1.407 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.0%, 11.7%, and 13.2% [6] - The corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for these years are 48.20, 43.17, and 38.13 [6] - Key financial indicators for 2024 include a gross margin of 28.2% and a return on equity (ROE) of 2.8% [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.92 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 23.71%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.53 billion yuan, down 92.44% year-on-year [5] - Despite the decline in revenue and profit due to industry client adjustments and cyclical fluctuations, the company has increased its R&D investment in emerging fields such as chips, low-altitude, satellite internet, unmanned systems, 6G, artificial intelligence, robotics, brain-computer interfaces, and smart wearables [6] - The company has made significant breakthroughs in the militarization of AI technology and is deeply involved in national satellite internet projects, leveraging its strong technical foundation to accelerate industry implementation in the low-altitude sector [6] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to recover, with estimates of 6.25 billion yuan in 2025, 7.51 billion yuan in 2026, and 9.02 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 27.0%, 20.2%, and 20.0% respectively [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise significantly, with forecasts of 0.495 billion yuan in 2025, 0.685 billion yuan in 2026, and 0.904 billion yuan in 2027, indicating year-on-year growth rates of 830.7%, 38.5%, and 32.0% respectively [7] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 56.56, 40.84, and 30.94 respectively [7] - The gross margin is expected to improve slightly from 28.8% in 2024 to 29.7% in 2027 [9] - Return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 0.4% in 2024 to 6.2% in 2027 [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.92 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 23.71%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.53 billion yuan, down 92.44% year-on-year [5] - Despite the decline in revenue and profit due to industry client adjustments and cyclical fluctuations, the company has increased its R&D investment in emerging fields such as chips, low-altitude, satellite internet, unmanned systems, 6G, artificial intelligence, robotics, brain-computer interfaces, and smart wearables [6] - The company has made significant breakthroughs in the military application of AI technology and is deeply involved in national satellite internet projects, leveraging its strong technical foundation to accelerate industry implementation in the low-altitude sector [6] Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to recover, with estimates of 6.25 billion yuan in 2025, 7.51 billion yuan in 2026, and 9.02 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 27.0%, 20.2%, and 20.0% respectively [9] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise significantly, with forecasts of 0.495 billion yuan in 2025, 0.685 billion yuan in 2026, and 0.904 billion yuan in 2027, indicating year-on-year growth rates of 830.7%, 38.5%, and 32.0% respectively [7] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 56.56, 40.84, and 30.94 respectively [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On April 2, Trump announced "reciprocal tariffs", setting a 10% minimum benchmark tariff for trading partners, with higher - tariff economies including China (34%), EU (20%), Vietnam (46%), India (26%), Japan (24%), etc., and also re - emphasized 25% auto tariffs and announced a 25% tariff on all imported beer, which increased capital market volatility [2] - On April 3, in the domestic bond market, the yields of various maturities declined, with the 10Y Treasury bonds 240011 and 250004 down about 5bp, and the decline of ultra - long bonds > long bonds > medium - short bonds [3] - After the "reciprocal tariffs" shock, the bond market is close to the pricing of unchanged short - term interest rate center + historical minimum term spread. The subsequent market decline needs to focus on the influx of risk - averse funds into the bond market and the opening of the broad - money window. The 10 - year Treasury bond is likely to fluctuate in the range of 1.70% - 1.80%. Active bonds are more cost - effective during the bond - replacement period, and some secondary - active bonds may over - adjust due to temporary tightening of funds [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Impact of Tariff Announcement - Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" announcement was a major surprise to the market, targeting multiple economies and increasing capital market volatility [2] 2. Bond Market Performance on April 3 - The domestic bond market priced in the tariff impact in the morning, with the yields of 10Y Treasury bonds 240011 and 250004 dropping by about 5bp, and the decline pattern of different - maturity bonds was ultra - long bonds > long bonds > medium - short bonds [3] 3. Three Perspectives on the Subsequent Bond Market 3.1. Tariff's Impact on Fundamental Expectations and Term Spread - Tariffs increase pessimistic expectations about the economic fundamentals. When there are such expectations, term spreads like 10Y - 1Y and 30Y - 10Y usually compress. Given the current short - term interest rate above 1.5% (1.54% on April 2) and the 10Y - 1Y term spread compressed to 25bp, the short - term interest rate is approaching the theoretical lower limit of 1.74% (calculated based on the historical minimum term spread of 20bp) [3] 3.2. Conditions for Further Decline in Short - term Interest Rates - A further decline in short - term interest rates depends on broad - money policies, but the window may not open immediately. The pressure to stabilize the economy has increased, and the expectation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts has risen again. However, stabilizing the exchange rate restricts broad - money policies in the short term, the space for broad - money policies is limited compared to 2018, and the probability of broad - money policies in May - June to cooperate with government bond issuance is higher, while the net financing pressure in April is relatively small [4] 3.3. Focus on Institutional Behavior when the 10 - year Treasury Bond Fluctuates between 1.70% - 1.80% - In the current bond - replacement market, 240011 may face upward pressure because the short - selling force of 240011 is still strong (as shown by the increase in bond lending volume after the quarter), and 250004 is about to replace 240011 as the active bond, so its interest rate may rise due to liquidity pricing [5][6] - The secondary - active bonds of 30Y Treasury bonds may also face upward pressure. Although the funds have loosened, the negative Carry phenomenon still exists. During the Q2 when there is a 30Y Treasury bond issuance plan, the secondary - active bonds may over - adjust after the seasonal tightening of funds [6]

[Table_IndNameRptType] 农林牧渔 [分析师：王莺 Table_Author] 执业证书号：S0010520070003 邮箱：wangying@hazq.com 主要观点： 行业专题 高致病性禽流感频发，2025 年海外品种更新量有望大降 [Table_IndRank] 行业评级：增持 报告日期： 2025-04-03 [Table_Chart] 行业指数与沪深 300 走势比较 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 24-04 24-05 24-06 24-07 24-08 24-09 24-10 24-11 24-12 25-01 25-02 25-03 25-04 农林牧渔(申万) 沪深300 ⚫[Table_Summary] 父母代鸡苗销量处高位，2025 年至今肉鸡产业链价格相对疲弱 在产种鸡存栏、父母代鸡苗销量处同期高位。2025 年第 12 周（3 月 17 日-3 月 23 日）：在产祖代种鸡存栏量 135.86 万套，处于 2019 年以来同 期最高水平，后备祖代种鸡存栏量 75.01 万套，低于 2024 年同期水平； 在产父母代种鸡存栏量 22 ...

贵州茅台（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 600519） 公司点评 顺利收官，目标理性 ——贵州茅台 2024 年报点评 [Table_Rank] 投资评级：买入（维持） | 报告日期： | 2025-04-03 | | --- | --- | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | 1,549.02 | | 近 12 个月最高/最低 | 1,880.59/1,226.65 | | （元） | | | 总股本（百万股） | 1,256 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 1,256 | | 流通股比例（%） | 100.00 | | 总市值（亿元） | 19,459 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 19,459 | [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 -35% -19% -3% 13% 29% 4/24 7/24 10/24 1/25 贵州茅台 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：邓欣 执业证书号：S0010524010001 邮箱：dengxin@hazq.com 联系人：郑少轩 执业证书号：S0010124040001 主要观点： ⚫ ...

Investment Rating - Investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [2] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 510.2 billion yuan in Q4 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 254.0 billion yuan, up 16.2% [7] - For the full year 2024, total revenue reached 1,741.4 billion yuan, an increase of 15.7%, with a net profit of 862.3 billion yuan, up 15.4% [7] - The company expects steady growth in 2025, with projected revenue growth of 9% [9] Revenue Summary - Q4 2024 revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor grew by 13.9% and 5.1% respectively, with Moutai liquor accounting for 89.4% of total liquor revenue [7] - For the full year 2024, Moutai liquor and series liquor revenues increased by 15.3% and 19.7% respectively [7] - The company’s direct sales and wholesale revenue in Q4 2024 grew by 8.7% and 16.8% respectively [7] Profitability Summary - The gross margin for Q4 2024 was 92.9%, slightly up from the previous year, while the annual gross margin was 91.9% [7] - The net profit margin for Q4 2024 was 52.5%, reflecting a year-on-year increase [7] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve total revenues of 1,901.3 billion yuan, 2,050.4 billion yuan, and 2,183.1 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.2%, 7.8%, and 6.5% [9][11] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 939.4 billion yuan, 1,020.8 billion yuan, and 1,091.2 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 8.9%, 8.7%, and 6.9% [9][11]