证券研究报告 有色金属 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2024 年 10 月 27 日 证券分析师 贵金属板块："特朗普交易"下金价续创历史新高，11 月美国大选和美联储 FOMC 会议来临， 预计金价波动率将显著放大。伦敦现货黄金上涨 0.70%、上期所黄金上涨 0.91%、沪金持仓 量下跌 0.21%，伦敦现货白银上涨 3.19%、上期所白银上涨 3.09%、沪银持仓量上涨 2.14%， 钯金上涨 10.53%，铂金上涨 0.89%。在"特朗普"交易下，本周金价持续创历史新高，伦敦 金现周中一度突破 2758 美元/盎司。预计 11 月将是宏观波动率显著放大的月份，除了美国 10 月就业和通胀数据公布外，还有 11 月 5 日的美国大选和 11 月 8 日美联储议息会议，当前的 市场预期组合是"特朗普当选+降息 25BP"，若最终结果与市场预期相反，则当前的交易或 发生逆转，各类资产波动率将显著放大。短期看，当前市场定价的是"特朗普当选+降息 25BP" 组合，重点关注 11 月的美国大选和美联储 FOMC 会议，预计届时金价波动率将显著放大。 长期看，我们认为在美国货币和财政政策双宽松，美元信 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the energy metals and new materials sector is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The overall price trend for energy metals is fluctuating, with lithium carbonate prices decreasing by 0.48% to 73,300 CNY/ton, and hydroxide lithium prices down by 1.07% to 67,195 CNY/ton, indicating a weak market [1] - The supply of lithium carbonate has been steadily increasing since the beginning of the year, but production has seen fluctuations since June; demand has weakened as inventory levels are sufficient for production needs [1] - The cobalt market shows mixed signals, with overseas MB cobalt prices rising to 10.75 USD/pound, while domestic cobalt prices remain stable at 182,000 CNY/ton [1] - The rare earth permanent magnet market is experiencing a rebound, with prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide increasing by 0.95% to 423,000 CNY/ton [1] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The top three performing sectors this week are permanent magnets (10.31%), rare earths (9.63%), and lithium (6.97%); the bottom three are high-temperature alloys (2.37%), copper alloys (3.34%), and powders (4.40%) [7][8] 2. Energy Metals - Lithium prices: spodumene down 1.20% to 743 USD/ton, lithium mica down 4.63% to 1,390 CNY/ton, lithium carbonate down 0.48% to 73,300 CNY/ton, hydroxide lithium down 1.07% to 67,195 CNY/ton [10][11] - Cobalt prices: MB cobalt at 10.8 USD/pound, domestic cobalt at 182,000 CNY/ton, and sulfuric cobalt down to 27,600 CNY/ton [10][17] - Nickel and manganese: sulfuric manganese stable at 6,300 CNY/ton, sulfuric nickel down to 27,800 CNY/ton [19] 3. New Materials - In the power new materials sector, iron phosphate prices remain stable at 10,400 CNY/ton, while lithium iron phosphate is at 32,900 CNY/ton [26][27] - In the photovoltaic new materials sector, the average price of silver paste increased by 2.84% to 8,005 CNY/kg, while the average price of galvanized aluminum magnesium plates decreased by 2.15% to 5,000 CNY/ton [30][31]

证券研究报告 美容护理 | 化妆品 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2024 年 10 月 27 日 证券分析师 事件：公司公布 2024 年三季报，2024 年前三季度实现营收 69.7 亿元，同增 32.7%， 实现归母净利润 10.0 亿元，同增 34.0%。其中，24Q3 实现营收 19.6 亿元，同比 +21.2%，归母净利润 3.0 亿元，同比+20.7%。 丁一 SAC：S1350524040003 dingyi@huayuanstock.com 王悦 wangyue03@huayuanstock.com 业绩稳步增长，多品类持续释放增长势能。根据公司公告，拆分 24 年第三季度分 品类数据：1）护肤类产品（含洁肤）收入 16.5 亿元，同比增长 20.7%，占总收入 比重为 84.2%，产品均价 80.2 元/支，同比增加 24.6%，主要系单价较高的大单品 （精华、面霜类）销售占比变动所致；2）美容彩妆类产品收入 2.3 亿元，同比增 长 18.7%，占总收入比重为 11.9%，产品均价 94.6 元/支，同比下滑 6.7%，主因系 市场表现： 美容彩妆类品牌 INSBAHA ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has shown significant operational improvement in Q3, with expectations for continued positive performance throughout the year [1] - The revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 1.157 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.86%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 258 million yuan, a decrease of 14.07% [4] - The company is actively expanding its product lines, including high-value consumables and insulin pens, leveraging a comprehensive CDMO platform [4] Financial Performance - In Q3 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 450 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.68%, and a net profit of 89 million yuan, up 49.91% [4] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 41.78%, an increase from 41.19% in 2023 and 41.03% in the first half of 2024 [4] - The company forecasts revenues of 1.683 billion yuan, 2.108 billion yuan, and 2.655 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.81%, 25.26%, and 25.94% [5] Profitability Forecast - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 392 million yuan, 515 million yuan, and 650 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with growth rates of 25.06%, 31.42%, and 26.23% [5] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are estimated at 35, 27, and 21 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 report shows a significant decline in revenue by 76.75% year-on-year to 998 million yuan, primarily due to the divestment of oil business, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 2345.63% to 438 million yuan, exceeding expectations [1] - The increase in water inflow has driven profits in the main business beyond expectations, with hydropower and power supply segments benefiting significantly [1] - The first batch of offshore wind projects is expected to be operational by the end of the year, with substantial growth potential in offshore wind energy [1] - The company is likely to benefit from asset injections from the parent group, which has committed to integrating its energy assets into the listed company [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 438 million yuan, with a non-recurring net profit of 80 million yuan, compared to a loss of 20 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - The hydropower segment's net profit for Q3 was 86 million yuan, while the power supply segment contributed 124 million yuan, both showing year-on-year increases [1] - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is projected to be 4.03 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 75.88% [4] Growth Potential - The company has secured 1.8 GW of offshore wind projects in Guangxi, with the first 700 MW expected to be operational by year-end, which will enhance profitability due to favorable electricity pricing [1] - The potential for further offshore wind project allocations is high, with a total of 23 GW planned in the region, positioning the company favorably for future growth [1] Asset Integration - The parent group has a history of asset injections into the listed company, with expectations for further integration of quality power assets, which will support the company's growth trajectory [3]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the restructuring capabilities of the State Energy Group, highlighting its focus on asset integration and its status as a leading central enterprise in energy reform [2][7] - The group has a comprehensive business model covering coal, electricity, transportation, and chemicals, with a total asset value of 2.1 trillion yuan and a coal production capacity of 665 million tons per year [7][8] - The report identifies significant potential in the group's unlisted power assets, totaling 127GW, primarily in thermal and renewable energy, with a focus on future integration into listed platforms [14][16] Summary by Sections 1. Restructuring Capabilities and Asset Integration - The State Energy Group was formed in 2017 through the merger of the State Power Group and Shenhua Group, becoming a central player in China's energy sector [7] - The group has been recognized as a model enterprise for state-owned enterprise reform, with a focus on creating a world-class clean energy company [7][10] - The group has six listed platforms, including one for coal (China Shenhua) and three for electricity (Guodian Power, Longyuan Power, Changyuan Power) [8][9] 2. Unlisted Power Assets - The group has 127GW of unlisted power assets, with 82GW in thermal power, 3GW in hydropower, 23GW in wind power, and 19GW in solar power [14][16] - The report suggests that the unlisted assets may be integrated into Longyuan Power and Guodian Power in the future [14] 3. Coal Industry Leadership - The State Energy Group is the largest coal producer globally, with a production capacity of 665 million tons per year and a focus on integrated coal-electricity operations [3][7] - The group operates a comprehensive transportation network, enhancing its coal-electricity synergy [3][7] 4. National Reform Action Plan - The report notes that the national reform action plan is halfway through, with new merger guidelines expected to accelerate asset integration [3][10] - The report encourages attention to potential asset integration opportunities within the State Energy Group, particularly regarding its subsidiaries [3][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's freight forwarding and distribution business continues to show improvement, with a 15% quarter-on-quarter revenue growth and a 12% increase in net profit for Q3 2024, maintaining a trend of sequential improvement [2] - The CCFI index, which reflects shipping market conditions, increased by 127.3% year-on-year and 38.3% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2024, positively impacting the company's gross profit per container and freight forwarding revenue [2] - The company is strategically expanding its chemical distribution capabilities through acquisitions and international subsidiaries, enhancing its long-term growth potential [2] Financial Performance Summary - For Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 95.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.3%, and a net profit of 4.9 billion yuan, up 21.7% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2024, the revenue was 35.61 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.9%, with a net profit of 1.79 billion yuan, up 19.9% year-on-year [1] - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2024 decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 11.1%, primarily due to weak demand in chemical logistics [2] - The company expects net profits for 2024-2026 to be 6.15 billion yuan, 7.14 billion yuan, and 8.41 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 42.7%, 16.1%, and 17.7% [2] Market Position and Strategy - The company is enhancing its supply chain efficiency by innovating business models and expanding service offerings, including online platforms and new transportation methods [2] - The strategic plan aims to establish seven business clusters across China and explore new fields such as new energy and new materials [2] - The average PE ratio for comparable companies in the industry is approximately 15.7x, while the company is positioned as a leader in chemical logistics with a clear business model [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Shenzhou International, as it is a leading player in the global sportswear manufacturing industry [2][43][44] Core Insights - Shenzhou International has a strong competitive advantage due to its long-standing relationships with high-quality clients, mature manufacturing technology, and diversified production capacity [2][4][44] - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing recovery in the global sportswear market, with significant growth potential driven by overseas replenishment and expansion of production capacity [2][4][44] - The report forecasts that the company's net profit will grow from 5.785 billion RMB in 2024 to 7.488 billion RMB in 2026, representing year-on-year growth rates of 26.93%, 14.57%, and 12.98% respectively [2][4][42] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Shenzhou International, established in 1988, has developed a robust client base and is a key supplier for major brands like Uniqlo, Nike, and Adidas [9] - The company has a production capacity exceeding 25 million tons of fabric and 550 million garments annually, with a workforce of approximately 97,000 employees [9] 2. Client Demand and Market Trends - The global sportswear market is experiencing growth, particularly in emerging markets, which is expected to continue [15] - The report highlights that the replenishment cycle for inventory among downstream brands is contributing positively to order volumes [15] 3. Competitive Advantages - Shenzhou International's scale and efficiency place it at the forefront of the industry, with high employee productivity and a strong return on equity (ROE) [2][4][25] - The company has maintained a stable gross margin and net profit margin, indicating effective cost management [12][28] 4. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to increase from 27.954 billion RMB in 2024 to 34.665 billion RMB in 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 11.94%, 11.80%, and 10.90% [42][41] - The report anticipates that the company's sales and management expense ratios will improve, further enhancing profitability [41][39] 5. Valuation Comparison - Shenzhou International's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2024 is estimated at 15.7x, which is lower than the average P/E of comparable companies at 21.3x, indicating a favorable valuation [2][44]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported strong performance in Q3 2024, with revenue of 1.04 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 26.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 260 million yuan, up 44.4% year-on-year [1] - The mosquito repellent series continues to grow well, while the baby care series shows remarkable performance, contributing significantly to revenue growth [1] - The company is expected to maintain high growth rates through its refined brand strategy and competitive advantages in niche markets [2] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 290 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.1%, and a net profit of 80 million yuan, up 32.0% year-on-year [1] - The revenue breakdown for the first three quarters shows the mosquito repellent, baby care, and essential oil series generating 420 million, 440 million, and 150 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 37.4%, 27.6%, and 9.3% [1] - The average selling prices for the three product series in Q3 2024 were 5.48 yuan, 7.89 yuan, and 9.09 yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +2.2%, +2.2%, and +14.1% [1] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 2.2 percentage points to 58.3%, with Q3 gross margin slightly up by 0.1 percentage points to 57.6% [1] - The net profit margin for the first three quarters improved by 3.2 percentage points to 25.1%, with Q3 net profit margin rising by 2.5 percentage points to 27.6% [1] - The company’s operating expenses as a percentage of revenue for Q3 2024 were 23.5% for sales expenses, 2.5% for management expenses, and 3.4% for R&D expenses [1] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 300 million, 380 million, and 470 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 33%, 26%, and 24% [2] - The expected price-to-earnings ratios for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 36, 28, and 23 times respectively [2] Market Position - The company has successfully built a strong domestic brand image over more than a decade in the niche market, leveraging a "big brand, small category" strategy to maintain a competitive edge [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (首次) [2] Core Viewpoints - The MEPC 82 meeting has not formally established mid-term regulatory measures for shipping decarbonization, but it signals a tightening of future environmental policies, enhancing industry expectations for stricter regulations [2] - The upcoming MEPC 83 meeting in April 2024 is anticipated to introduce important mid-term measures for greenhouse gas reduction, which will significantly impact shipping costs, organizational relationships, and business models in the coming decades [2] - The shipbuilding capacity for new fuel vessels is limited, and the green renewal cycle for ships is expected to be steady and long-term due to the tightening of green regulations [2] Summary by Sections Regulatory Developments - MEPC 82 focused on ship emission control, ballast water management, black carbon reduction, greenhouse gas reduction, and marine plastic waste prevention, establishing a regulatory framework centered on GFI [1][2] - The meeting proposed that the CII regulations need to be tightened after 2026 to meet the IMO's goal of reducing shipping carbon intensity by at least 40% from 2008 levels by 2030 [1][2] Market Dynamics - The shipbuilding market has seen a long-term decline in capacity since 2008, leading to a mismatch between new orders and shrinking shipyard capacity, resulting in a tight supply situation [2] - The current order book for oil tankers and bulk carriers only meets basic fleet renewal needs, indicating a significant gap in meeting green renewal requirements [2][8] Future Outlook - The gradual tightening of green regulations is expected to accelerate the retirement of old ships and the renewal of green vessels, with a focus on leading Chinese shipbuilding companies [2] - The report suggests that the shipbuilding capacity is unlikely to see significant growth in the near future, maintaining a core driver of the current shipbuilding cycle [2][9]