Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction decoration industry is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - Emphasis on investment opportunities in infrastructure central state-owned enterprises (SOEs) due to policy support and improved expectations for infrastructure investment, particularly in water conservancy and pipeline sectors [1][7] - The low-altitude policy is expected to benefit the design sector first, with significant opportunities arising from urban low-altitude planning and airport design [1][7] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - Focus on investment opportunities in infrastructure central SOEs, with policies gradually being implemented to facilitate increased funding [1][7] - The design sector is anticipated to be the first to benefit from the low-altitude economy, which has been included in government work reports [1][7] Infrastructure Data Tracking - Special bonds issued this week amounted to 19.326 billion, with a cumulative issuance of 50,447.02 billion, showing a year-on-year decrease of 1.29% [9] - Urban investment bonds issued this week totaled 78.114 billion, with a cumulative net financing of -386.5 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 136.93% [9] Industry News Summary - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development announced a package of policies to stabilize the real estate market, including the implementation of 1 million urban village and dilapidated housing renovation projects [10][13] - A focus on resolving overdue enterprise payments was emphasized in a recent policy document [13] Company Dynamics Summary - China State Construction reported a new contract total of 32,479 billion for the first nine months of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [15] - China Energy Engineering announced a plan to increase its shareholding in the company, indicating a commitment to value management [44][45] Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.36%, while the construction decoration index increased by 3.57% during the week [49] - Notable stock performances included Chengdu Road and Bridge (+61.51%) and Chongqing Construction (+61.33%) [49]

证券研究报告 海外 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2024 年 10 月 22 日 郑嘉伟 SAC：S1350523120001 zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com 于炳麟 SAC：S1350524060002 yubinglin@huayuanstock.com 证券分析师 海外 AI：本周亚马逊和谷歌分别签订核电相关新协议，带动核电及铀矿板块上涨。本周 10 月 14 日，谷歌宣布 计划购买核电，助力数据中心运营。谷歌与核技术公司 Kairos Power 签订协议，旨在全美部署一批小型先进核 电项目，提供多达 500 兆瓦的无碳能源，根据新的协议，预计首个 SMR 将于 2030 年上线，随后到 2035 年部 署更多反应堆，达到 500 兆瓦。本周 10 月 16 日，亚马逊签署三项与核电相关的新协议，以支持核能项目的发 展，具体包括：1）在华盛顿与 Energy Northwest 签订协议，为在华盛顿州开发和部署小型模块化反应堆 (SMR) 技术提供资金，预计该项目将产生 320 MW 的发电容量，Energy Northwest 可以选择进一步扩建该站点，增加 最 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utility sector is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The new carbon quota allocation scheme is beneficial for efficient, low-coal-consumption power units, aligning with the dual carbon strategy and promoting green transformation [3][11] - In September, there was a significant increase in electricity generation from thermal and wind power, with thermal power generation growing by 8.9% year-on-year [4][20] - The carbon market is expected to tighten, with an estimated industry shortfall of 2-7 million tons in 2023, leading to a net carbon expenditure of approximately 5 billion yuan [3][17] Summary by Sections Carbon Emission Quota Tightening - The new carbon quota allocation scheme encourages large-scale, high-efficiency, low-emission units to participate in the market, enhancing market liquidity [3][11] - The carbon market is transitioning from surplus to a shortfall, with a projected shortfall of 2-7 million tons for 2023 [3][17] September Energy Production Data - In September, the production of raw coal reached 410 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.4% [4][20] - Electricity generation in September increased by 6%, with thermal power and wind power showing significant growth [4][20] - Wind power generation surged by 31.6% year-on-year, primarily due to favorable wind conditions and a low base from the previous year [31] Company Valuation - Companies such as Guodian Power, China Resources Power, and State Power Investment are recommended for their high utilization hours and low coal consumption [5][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of investment quality and shareholder returns in the current energy landscape, particularly for state-owned enterprises [5][33]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The energy metals sector is experiencing a weak price trend, with lithium carbonate prices dropping by 3.66% to 73,650 CNY/ton, and hydroxide lithium prices down by 0.73% to 67,925 CNY/ton. Supply has increased steadily since the beginning of the year, but demand has weakened due to sufficient inventory in downstream sectors [1][12] - The cobalt market shows mixed signals, with overseas MB cobalt prices falling to 10.75 USD/pound while domestic cobalt prices increased to 182,000 CNY/ton. Supply remains adequate, but demand is low, maintaining a state of destocking [2][17] - The rare earth permanent magnet market is also experiencing price fluctuations, with prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide down by 3.01% to 419,000 CNY/ton and dysprosium oxide down by 4.70% to 1,725,000 CNY/ton. The market is expected to remain volatile [2][26] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report highlights significant developments in the lithium sector, including the acquisition of a mining license by Shengxin Lithium Energy for the Huirong Mining Company, which has the largest hard rock lithium deposit in Asia [6] - The report also notes that Shantou Technology plans to invest approximately 1.54 billion USD in a lithium-ion battery anode material project in Malaysia [6] 2. Energy Metals 2.1. Lithium - Lithium prices are under pressure, with spodumene down by 3.34% to 752 USD/ton and lithium carbonate down by 3.66% to 73,650 CNY/ton. The refining margin for lithium carbonate from spodumene has decreased by 25.00% to 3,065 CNY/ton [11][12] 2.2. Cobalt - The cobalt market is characterized by a decline in overseas MB cobalt prices to 10.75 USD/pound, while domestic prices for cobalt sulfate have decreased to 27,800 CNY/ton. The domestic refining margin has increased to 58,900 CNY/ton [17][18] 2.3. Nickel-Manganese - Manganese sulfate prices have risen to 6,300 CNY/ton, while nickel sulfate prices remain stable at 28,100 CNY/ton. The market is currently experiencing a cautious outlook due to rapid price declines [23] 2.4. Rare Earth Permanent Magnets - Prices for light rare earth ore have decreased by 3.00% to 34,000 CNY/ton, while praseodymium-neodymium oxide has dropped by 3.01% to 419,000 CNY/ton. The profitability of praseodymium-neodymium oxide has decreased by 3.05% to 53,300 CNY/ton [26][28] 3. New Materials 3.1. Power New Materials - Phosphate iron prices remain stable at 10,400 CNY/ton, while lithium iron phosphate prices have decreased to 32,900 CNY/ton. The price of precursor 622 has dropped to 73,000 CNY/ton [34][35] 3.2. Photovoltaic New Materials - The average price of welding tape remains stable at 4.25 CNY/kg, while the average price of 421 metal silicon powder is 13,150 CNY/ton. The average price of photovoltaic frames has decreased by 0.84% to 23,600 CNY/ton [40][45]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage in the market [3][7]. Core Views - The company has been deeply engaged in the vascular intervention field for over a decade, with innovative products expected to yield significant returns. The dual-track approach in neurointervention and cardiovascular business is forming a solid growth foundation [3]. - The penetration rate for stroke intervention treatments is currently low, with multiple innovative products in development to create a comprehensive neurointervention product matrix. The domestic neurointervention market is projected to grow significantly, reaching 176 billion yuan by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 20.1% from 2020 to 2026 [3][30]. - The company has successfully participated in centralized procurement for coronary stents, leading to a substantial recovery in its coronary business, with a revenue increase of 99.1% year-on-year in 2023 [3][9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 2007, the company focuses on high-value interventional medical devices, with a product portfolio that includes drug-eluting stents and balloon catheters. It has established a presence in over 3,000 hospitals [16][17]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 480 million, 707 million, and 941 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 39.95%, 47.20%, and 33.08% [4][7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 3.21 million, 47.52 million, and 105.97 million yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 108.11%, 1379.33%, and 122.99% [4][6]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights the low penetration of neurointervention treatments and the increasing demand for innovative products in this area. The company is actively involved in clinical trials and regulatory approvals globally, aiming to establish itself as a leading brand in innovative medical devices [3][30]. - The coronary stent business has shown a significant recovery due to successful bids in centralized procurement, with a marked increase in sales volume and revenue [3][9]. Product Development - The company has a robust pipeline of innovative products, including self-expanding intracranial drug-eluting stents and coated stents, which are at various stages of clinical trials and approvals [3][30]. - The report emphasizes the importance of continuous R&D investment, with a focus on developing core technologies that enhance product efficacy and market competitiveness [26][28].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, Kefu Medical, marking its first coverage [2][6]. Core Views - Kefu Medical is positioned as a rising star in the home medical device sector, actively pursuing a platform-based layout. The company has reached a new revenue scale, focusing on core products, with a significant increase in self-manufactured products. The product pipeline is rich, and profitability is expected to continue improving. Additionally, the company is expanding its hearing chain service terminals to create a second growth curve [2][3][6]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Kefu Medical operates in the home medical device industry, providing a comprehensive health management platform. The company covers five major areas: health monitoring, rehabilitation aids, respiratory support, medical care, and traditional Chinese medicine therapy, with nearly ten thousand product models [16]. Revenue and Profitability - From 2019 to 2023, Kefu Medical achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.2% in revenue and 19.6% in net profit attributable to shareholders. The company’s revenue for the first half of 2024 reached 1.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.6% [3][16]. Product Strategy - The company has shifted from a scale-oriented approach to focusing on core products, with self-manufactured products' revenue share increasing from 18.3% in 2017 to 56.7% in 2023. The revenue from self-manufactured products reached 1.53 billion yuan in 2023 [2][3][24]. Hearing Chain Service - Kefu Medical has established a hearing service network, with the number of stores increasing from 432 in 2022 to 765 in 2023. The hearing service segment generated 198 million yuan in revenue in 2023, a 64% year-on-year increase [3][6]. Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 380 million yuan, 470 million yuan, and 570 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 50.3%, 22.4%, and 22.3%. The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are estimated at 20X, 17X, and 14X for the same years [3][6]. Market Position - Kefu Medical is positioned favorably within the home medical device sector, benefiting from the aging population. The company’s product offerings span health monitoring, rehabilitation aids, respiratory support, medical care, and traditional Chinese medicine therapy, providing a one-stop health management solution [2][3][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry is "Positive" [3][24]. Core Viewpoints - The pharmaceutical index has declined by 11.85% year-to-date, indicating that valuations are at historical lows, and fund holdings are also expected to be at relatively low levels. The industry is anticipated to stabilize and improve gradually in the fourth quarter and 2025, with structural high-growth segments and stocks worth watching [3][24]. - The report emphasizes a strategic focus on "Innovation + Going Global + Aging Population" as key investment themes, suggesting a focus on sectors that have experienced significant declines and potential reversals [4][24]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - From October 14 to October 18, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 0.98%, while the pharmaceutical index increased by 1.04%. The pharmaceutical sector showed a rebound, with 378 stocks rising and 104 falling during the week [2][9]. - Year-to-date performance shows that chemical preparations and raw materials have relatively smaller declines of -0.5%, while biological products and medical services have larger declines of -22.5% and -22.4%, respectively [2][13]. Key Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies with expected performance acceleration in Q3, such as Meihua Medical, Baiyang Pharmaceutical, Jiutian Pharmaceutical, and Kefu Medical [2][3]. - Specific sectors to watch include: 1. Going Global: Companies like Mindray Medical, United Imaging, and Sanofi Biologicals are highlighted [3][24]. 2. Innovative Drugs and Devices: Companies such as Hengrui Medicine, Hutchison China MediTech, and Innovent Biologics are recommended [3][24]. 3. Domestic Substitution: Companies like Kaili Medical and Aohua Endoscopy are noted for their growth potential [3][24]. 4. Aging Population and Out-of-Hospital Consumption: Companies such as Yuyue Medical and Kunming Pharmaceutical are suggested [3][24]. 5. High Barrier Industries: Companies in anesthetics and blood products like Renfu Pharmaceutical and Tian Tan Biological are recommended [3][24]. 6. Small but High-Quality Stocks: Companies like Baiyang Pharmaceutical and Pumen Technology are highlighted for potential valuation recovery [3][24]. Recent Stock Performance - The top-performing stocks for the week include Shuangcheng Pharmaceutical (+60.97%), Maike Audi (+58.40%), and Changshan Pharmaceutical (+49.75%) [10][11]. - Conversely, stocks like New Industry (-11.49%) and Yirui Technology (-7.69%) faced significant declines [10][11]. Valuation Insights - As of October 18, 2024, the overall PE valuation for the pharmaceutical sector is 30.80X, indicating a relatively low historical position. The report notes that various sub-sectors have differing valuation levels, with chemical raw materials and preparations being relatively high [24][17].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the building materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The recent meeting by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is underestimated, with a focus on demand-side policies that could stabilize the market. The implementation of 1 million sets of urban village renovations and the increase of credit scale for "white list" projects to 4 trillion yuan are key measures [1][2] - The report suggests that the monetary settlement approach will directly provide liquidity to the demand side, potentially leading to a sales volume increase of around 100 million square meters, which could boost demand growth by approximately 10.7% [1][2] - The current market divergence regarding the real estate industry chain is primarily due to uncertainties about the effectiveness of subsequent policy implementations and their impact on the fundamentals [2] Summary by Sections Market Tracking - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.4%, while the building materials index increased by 2.8%. Cement, glass fiber, and renovation materials indices saw respective changes of +3.4%, -0.9%, and +4.0% [7] - The top five gainers included Huazhong Holdings (+61.1%) and Sichuan Jinding (+61.0%), while the top five losers included Youbang Ceiling (-18.2%) and Puyang Co., Ltd. (-6.0%) [7] Data Tracking - Cement: The average price of 42.5 cement nationwide is 408.7 yuan/ton, up 6.3 yuan/ton month-on-month and up 43.8 yuan/ton year-on-year [13] - Float Glass: The average price of 5mm float glass is 1333.2 yuan/ton, down 3.1 yuan/ton month-on-month and down 899.2 yuan/ton year-on-year [25] - Photovoltaic Glass: The average price for 2.0mm coated glass is 12.4 yuan/square meter, down 0.1 yuan/square meter month-on-month and down 7.2% year-on-year [30] - Glass Fiber: The average price of alkali-free glass fiber yarn is 4635.0 yuan/ton, unchanged month-on-month and up 490.0 yuan/ton year-on-year [38] - Carbon Fiber: The average price of large tow carbon fiber is 72.5 yuan/kg, unchanged month-on-month and down 5.0 yuan/kg year-on-year [43] Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development's recent press conference highlighted eight key points aimed at promoting stable and healthy development in the real estate market, including the implementation of 1 million sets of renovations and the expansion of credit for "white list" projects [10] - The financial regulatory authority emphasized the importance of ensuring housing delivery and stabilizing the real estate market, indicating a proactive approach to financing and land management [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the precious metals sector is "Positive" (maintained) [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that gold prices continue to reach historical highs due to the "Trump trade" and escalating geopolitical events, with London spot gold rising by 2.40% and Shanghai gold increasing by 3.63% [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the upcoming U.S. elections and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in November, as volatility is expected to increase significantly during this period [1]. - In the copper sector, domestic inventory accumulation is leading to price fluctuations, with London copper down by 1.31% and Shanghai copper down by 0.31% [1][24]. - The aluminum sector is facing tight supply of bauxite, resulting in a significant increase in alumina prices by 8.43% [2][29]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have reached new highs, with London gold surpassing $2720 per ounce, driven by expectations of increased fiscal deficits under a potential Trump presidency and heightened geopolitical tensions [1]. - Silver prices also saw increases, with London spot silver up by 2.98% and Shanghai silver up by 2.73% [14]. Copper Sector - London copper prices decreased by 1.31% to $9603 per ton, while Shanghai copper prices fell by 0.31% to ¥76980 per ton [23]. - Domestic copper inventory continues to accumulate, with Shanghai copper inventory increasing by 7.63% [24]. - The copper smelting profit margin is reported at -1066 yuan per ton, indicating a narrowing loss [24]. Aluminum Sector - London aluminum prices fell by 2.49% to $2587 per ton, while Shanghai aluminum prices decreased by 0.65% to ¥20600 per ton [23][29]. - The alumina price surged by 8.43%, impacting the profit margins of aluminum companies, which dropped by 32.80% to ¥1936 per ton [2][29]. Small Metals - Small metal prices showed mixed results, with germanium ingots and molybdenum concentrates rising by 2.17% and 0.81%, respectively, while indium and magnesium ingots saw declines of 0.71% and 1.63% [2]. Market Performance - The report notes that the non-ferrous metal sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 1.85% [8]. - The sector's PE_TTM valuation stands at 19.96, slightly down by 0.27 from the previous week [12]. Key Companies to Watch - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Zijin Mining, China Gold, and Chalco in the precious metals sector, and companies like Jiangxi Copper and Yunnan Tin in the copper sector [1][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for the shipping industry, indicating a "Look Favorably" rating [2] Core Insights - The MEPC 82 meeting established a regulatory framework for mid-term measures in shipping decarbonization, focusing on technical measures centered around GFI, while economic measures are still under discussion [2][3] - The tightening of green regulations is expected to accelerate the retirement of old ships and the renewal of green vessels, with a significant gap remaining in orders for oil tankers and bulk carriers to meet green renewal needs [3][4] - The upcoming MEPC 83 meeting in April 2025 is anticipated to introduce crucial regulations that will impact shipping costs, organizational relationships, and business models for decades to come [2][3] Summary by Sections Regulatory Developments - The MEPC 82 meeting focused on emissions control, ballast water management, black carbon reduction, greenhouse gas emissions reduction, and marine plastic waste prevention, laying the groundwork for future regulations [2][3] - The meeting proposed tightening the CII regulations post-2026 to meet the IMO's target of reducing shipping carbon intensity by at least 40% by 2030, with potential increases in annual reduction rates [2][3] Market Dynamics - The report highlights that shipbuilding capacity remains constrained due to the pandemic-induced order surge in 2021, leading to a mismatch in supply and demand [3][4] - The report suggests that the gradual tightening of green regulations will drive the green renewal of fleets, with a focus on leading Chinese shipbuilding companies [3][4] Future Outlook - The report emphasizes that the upcoming MEPC 83 meeting will be critical in determining the final outcomes of the proposed regulations, which are expected to have a significant impact on the shipping industry [2][3]