Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Volume-Price Industry Rotation Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: The strategy is based on six dimensions of volume-price factors, including momentum, trading volatility, turnover rate, long-short comparison, volume-price divergence, and volume-amplitude alignment. These factors are tested on a single-factor basis at the monthly frequency for the CSI Level-1 industries, resulting in 11 effective and logically strong industry factors[6] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Construct 11 volume-price factors based on the six dimensions mentioned above 2. At the end of each month, select the top five industries with the highest composite factor scores from the CSI Level-1 industries (excluding "Comprehensive" and "Comprehensive Finance") 3. Apply equal weighting within factors and equal weighting across industries to form the final strategy[7] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates strong logical consistency and effectiveness in identifying outperforming industries[6] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Second-Order Momentum - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA) of the closing price relative to its historical mean[7] - **Factor Construction Process**: $ \text{Second-Order Momentum} = \text{Close}_t \cdot \text{EWMA}(\text{Close}_{t-\text{window1}:t}) - \text{mean}(\text{Close}_{t-\text{window1}:t}) $ - Parameters: "Close" represents the closing price, "window1" defines the lookback period[7] 2. Factor Name: Momentum Term Spread - **Factor Construction Idea**: Captures the difference in momentum over two different time windows[7] - **Factor Construction Process**: $ \text{Momentum Term Spread} = \frac{\text{Close}_t - \text{Close}_{t-\text{window1}}}{\text{Close}_{t-\text{window1}}} - \frac{\text{Close}_t - \text{Close}_{t-\text{window2}}}{\text{Close}_{t-\text{window2}}} $ - Parameters: "window1" and "window2" represent two different lookback periods[7] 3. Factor Name: Trading Amount Volatility - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the standard deviation of trading amounts over a specific window[7] - **Factor Construction Process**: $ \text{Trading Amount Volatility} = -\text{STD}(\text{Amount}) $ - Parameters: "Amount" refers to the trading amount, and "STD" is the standard deviation operator[7] 4. Factor Name: Volume-Price Divergence Covariance - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the covariance between ranked closing prices and ranked volumes over a specific window[7] - **Factor Construction Process**: $ \text{Volume-Price Divergence Covariance} = \text{rank}(\text{covariance}[\text{rank}(\text{Close}), \text{rank}(\text{Volume}), \text{window}]) $ - Parameters: "Close" represents the closing price, "Volume" represents the trading volume, and "window" defines the lookback period[7] 5. Factor Name: Volume-Amplitude Alignment - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the correlation between ranked volumes and ranked price ranges over a specific window[7] - **Factor Construction Process**: $ \text{Volume-Amplitude Alignment} = \text{correlation}[\text{rank}(\text{Volume}_{i-1}), \text{rank}(\text{High}_i - \text{Low}_i), \text{window}] $ - Parameters: "High" and "Low" represent the highest and lowest prices, respectively, and "window" defines the lookback period[7] --- Backtesting Results of the Model 1. Volume-Price Industry Rotation Strategy - **Cumulative Return (2010-2025)**: 694.50%[9] - **Cumulative Excess Return over Equal-Weighted Industry Portfolio**: 605.20%[9] - **April 2025 Monthly Return**: -1.59%[9] - **April 2025 Excess Return over Equal-Weighted Industry Portfolio**: 0.81%[9]

证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 5 月 3 日 [Table_Title] 第一量子 2025Q1 铜产量同比减少 0.90%至 9.97 万 吨，正在等待官方通知允许其出口储存在 Punta Rincón 的铜精矿 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ► 生产经营情况 1）铜 公司 2025Q1 铜产量为 9.97 万吨，同比减少 0.90%，环比减少 10.66%。环比下降主要原因是 Sentinel 铜矿产量下降， Kansanshi 铜矿和 Sentinel 铜矿受到赞比亚季节性降雨的影响， 但排水和泵送解决方案均能有效应对。 公司 2025Q1 铜销量为 10.20 万吨，同比增长 0.18%，环比减少 8.65%。 2025Q1 铜 C1 现金成本为 1.95 美元/磅，同比减少 3.47%，环 比增长 16.07%。环比增长反映了铜产量下降以及赞比亚员工 和维护成本的上升，但强劲的黄金副产品收益部分抵消了这些 影响。 2025Q1 铜总维持成本（AISC）为 2.90 美元/磅，同比增长 1.75% ...

盈利预期期限结构因子历史表现良好，走势稳定性高。 将盈利预期期限结构"动量 ff"因子与传统分析师预期 调升因子合成后，得到的"合成动量 ff"因子走势进一步改 善，兼具高收益与稳定性。 ► 选股组合表现 在沪深 300、中证 500、中证 800、中证 1000 内分别选择 "合成动量 ff"因子值排名前 50、50、100、100 名的股票， 构成选股组合，组合历史表现良好。 证券研究报告|金融工程研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 5 月 2 日 [Table_Title] 前四个月全部组合跑赢基准——盈利预期期限结构选股月报 202505 [Table_Summary] ► 盈利预期期限结构因子 分析师在某一时点会对上市公司未来多年的盈利做出预 测，我们将预期盈利随未来年度变化的趋势称为盈利预期期 限结构。 2025 年 4 月，沪深 300 选股组合、中证 800 选股组合跑 输基准，超额收益分别为-0.57%、-0.02%；中证 500 选股组 合、中证 1000 选股组合跑赢基准，超额收益分别为 0.73%、 1.13%。 2025 年前 4 个月，沪深 300、中证 500、中证 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive outlook for the industry [5]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, nickel ore production increased by 3% year-on-year to 9.169 million wet tons, while carbonated lithium production at the Centenario plant reached 440 tons [1][4]. - The nickel sales volume for Q1 2025 was limited to 5.399 million wet tons, reflecting a significant decrease compared to the previous quarter and year [2]. - The NPI production remained stable at 9,100 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 23% [3]. - The Centenario plant's lithium production is expected to reach its rated capacity by the end of 2025, despite some delays in equipment commissioning [4][14]. - Manganese ore production in Q1 2025 was 1.785 million tons, showing a 44% increase quarter-on-quarter, although it decreased by 7% year-on-year [7]. - The report highlights a strong demand for titanium iron ore, with production increasing by 13% year-on-year to 130,000 tons [9]. Summary by Sections Nickel - Nickel ore production for Q1 2025 was 9.169 million wet tons, a 3% increase year-on-year, but a 34% decrease quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The external sales volume of nickel ore was limited to 5.399 million wet tons, reflecting a 68% decrease from the previous quarter and an 11% decrease year-on-year [2]. - The average grade of nickel ore sold decreased significantly, impacting reference prices negatively, although a premium of nearly 50% was maintained due to limited domestic supply [2]. Lithium - The Centenario plant achieved its first lithium carbonate production in December 2024, with Q1 2025 production reaching 440 tons and a purity exceeding 99.5% [4][6]. - The plant is expected to reach its full design capacity once all equipment is operational, with a focus on improving the concentration process [14]. Manganese - Manganese ore and sinter production in Q1 2025 was 1.785 million tons, a 44% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 7% decrease year-on-year [7]. - The average cash cost for manganese ore was $2.4 per ton, reflecting a 7% increase year-on-year due to decreased sales volume [7]. Mineral Sands - Mineral sands production in Q1 2025 was 226,000 tons, a 4% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 23% increase year-on-year [9]. - Titanium iron ore production increased by 13% year-on-year to 130,000 tons, driven by strong demand from the US and China [9]. Financial Performance - The adjusted revenue for Q1 2025 was €742 million, remaining flat year-on-year, with negative effects from sales volume and product mix offset by positive price and currency effects [10]. 2025 Outlook - Nickel production and sales are expected to be limited to 32 million tons, with external sales targeted at 29 million tons [12]. - The lithium production target for 2025 is expected to be at the lower end of the guidance range due to delays in equipment commissioning [14]. - Manganese ore transport is projected between 6.7 million and 7.2 million tons for 2025, with cash costs expected to be at the upper end of the guidance range [15].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the industry, predicting that the industry index will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 10% or more in the upcoming months [4]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, LG Energy Solution (LGES) reported a revenue increase of 2.2% year-on-year to 6.27 trillion KRW (approximately 340.2 billion RMB), despite a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.9% [1]. - The operating profit for Q1 2025 was 375 billion KRW (approximately 20.25 billion RMB), a significant recovery from a loss of 2.26 trillion KRW in the previous quarter, marking a year-on-year increase of 138.85% [1]. - The net profit for Q1 2025 was 227 billion KRW, up 7.08% year-on-year, compared to a loss of 411 billion KRW in the previous quarter [1]. - The company’s total debt reached 17.61 trillion KRW at the end of Q1 2025, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 14.4% and a year-on-year increase of 36.98% [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for Q1 2025 was 6.27 trillion KRW, with a gross profit margin of 16.2% [7]. - The operating profit margin, excluding IRA tax credits, was -1.3% for Q1 2025, indicating challenges in profitability without tax incentives [7]. - Cash and cash equivalents at the end of Q1 2025 were 3.57 trillion KRW, down 8.34% quarter-on-quarter and down 32.4% year-on-year [1]. Operational Developments - LGES has adjusted its North American production capacity in response to market demand, pausing the construction of its ESS battery plant in Arizona and instead utilizing existing capacity in Michigan to produce LFP batteries [3]. - The company is acquiring a joint venture with General Motors in Michigan, which will significantly expand its North American operations [3]. - LGES has secured new orders for 10GWh of batteries from a traditional automaker in North America and has won contracts for ESS batteries in Europe and the U.S. [3]. Future Outlook - The company plans to streamline operations and reduce costs while actively seeking strategic opportunities in light of regulatory changes affecting the battery industry [6]. - LGES will focus on essential investments and adjust its capacity expansion plans according to market demand [6]. - The company aims to mitigate tariff impacts by collaborating with material companies entering North America and accelerating the development of new technologies to lower production costs [6].

Investment Rating - The report recommends the industry [4] Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the company's net sales decreased by 5.5% year-on-year to €122.9 million, impacted by falling prices of nickel sulfate and metals, despite record production in battery chemicals [1][2] - The battery chemicals segment generated net sales of €46.9 million, a 31.7% increase from the previous year, but a 53% decrease from the previous quarter [1][2] - The metal intermediates segment saw net sales of €76.0 million, down 19.5% year-on-year and 20% quarter-on-quarter [1][2] - The company's EBITDA for Q1 2025 was €14.8 million, a 62.9% decrease from the previous year, and operating loss was €6.6 million compared to a profit of €2.36 million in the same period last year [2][10] - Operating cash flow was negative at €10.0 million, worsened from -€3.4 million year-on-year, influenced by increased inventory and decreased accounts payable [2][10] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2025 net sales: €122.9 million, down from €130.0 million in Q1 2024 [10] - Battery chemicals business: €46.9 million in Q1 2025, up from €35.6 million in Q1 2024 [10] - Metal intermediates business: €76.0 million in Q1 2025, down from €94.4 million in Q1 2024 [10] - EBITDA: €14.8 million in Q1 2025, down from €39.9 million in Q1 2024 [10] - Operating result: -€6.6 million in Q1 2025, compared to €23.6 million profit in Q1 2024 [10] - Operating cash flow: -€10.0 million in Q1 2025, compared to -€3.4 million in Q1 2024 [10] Important Events - Terrafame is seeking permission to appeal a ruling from the Vaasa Administrative Court regarding operational limits, which could significantly impact its operations and costs [3][5] - The company announced a financing arrangement of €100 million to support future investment plans, including €50 million in shareholder loans and €50 million in equity financing commitments [6] - Terrafame is modifying its Kolmisoppi project plan to proceed in two phases, with the first phase's license application submitted in summer 2023 [8][9]

[Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: 证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 5 月 1 日 [Table_Title] 三星 SDI 2025Q1 电池业务收入同比下降 34.9%至 2.98 万亿韩元，电池业务营业利润同比由盈转亏 至亏损 4524 亿韩元 ►2025Q1 财务业绩情况 2025Q1，公司营业收入为 3.18 万亿韩元（165.36 亿人民 币），同比增长 34%，环比增长 15.4%。 2025Q1，公司营业亏损为 4341 亿韩元（22.57 亿人民 币），2024Q1 为盈利 2491 亿韩元（12.95 元人民币），同比 由盈转亏，2024Q4 为亏损 2567 亿韩元（13.35 亿人民币）， 环比亏损有所扩大。 2025Q1，公司净亏损为 2160 亿韩元（10.99 亿人民币）， 2024Q1 为盈利 2870 亿韩元（14.60 亿人民币），2024Q4 为亏 损 2430 亿韩元（12.36 亿人民币）。 2025Q1 末，公司持有的现金及现金等价物为 1.35 万亿韩 元（68.84 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in electric two-wheeler sales, with Q1 revenue reaching 5.112 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 99.52%, exceeding market expectations [3] - The gross profit margin has steadily improved, with net profit for Q1 reaching 456 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 236%, significantly surpassing market expectations [4] - The company is entering a harvest period for new products, indicating strong growth potential in the medium to long term [5][6] Summary by Sections Event Overview - The company released its Q1 2025 report [2] Revenue Growth - Electric two-wheeler revenue reached 2.862 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 141%, with sales of 1.0038 million units, also up 141% [3] - Revenue from self-branded retail scooters was 395 million yuan, up 30%, with sales of 206,700 units, up 36% [3] - ToB product direct sales revenue was 810 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 92% [3] Profitability Improvement - The company's net profit margin for Q1 was 8.92%, up 3.63 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The sales gross margin for Q1 was 29.67%, a year-on-year increase of 0.39 percentage points [4] - The company expects further improvement in profitability as it scales up operations [4] Product Development and Market Expansion - The company has over 7,600 stores and has shipped over 6 million electric two-wheelers domestically [5] - New products in the all-terrain vehicle and robot categories are gaining traction in global markets [5][6] - The company has launched new e-bike models that have received widespread attention in the U.S. market [6] Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 195.04 billion yuan, 257.47 billion yuan, and 326.70 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 37%, 32%, and 27% respectively [7] - Net profit forecasts for the same period have been raised to 18.60 billion yuan, 25.42 billion yuan, and 32.04 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 72%, 27%, and 26% respectively [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for Q1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 27.94% for net profit attributable to the parent company and 59.40% for net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses [5][6] - The revenue for 2024 reached 1.026 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 38.28%, while Q1 2025 revenue was 338 million yuan, up 54.23% year-on-year, indicating strong domestic equipment demand and competitive advantages in products [3][4] - The company is expected to benefit from the expansion of advanced processes, with a projected market share of 28% for Chiller and 8.6% for L/S in 2024, indicating significant growth potential [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 153 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.35%, and a net profit after deducting non-recurring gains of 116 million yuan, up 33.52% [4] - The sales net profit margin for 2024 was 14.90%, slightly down by 1.15 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin after deducting non-recurring gains was 11.28%, down by 0.30 percentage points [4] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a net profit of 36 million yuan and a net profit after deducting non-recurring gains of 32 million yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 27.94% and 59.40% [5][6] Revenue Forecast - The revenue forecast for 2025 is adjusted to 1.5 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 46%, and for 2026, it is projected to be 1.974 billion yuan, up 32% [8] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is 266 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 73.8%, and for 2026, it is expected to reach 380 million yuan, up 42.9% [8] Market Position and Growth Potential - The company is positioned to benefit from the expansion of advanced processes, with significant demand for Chiller and L/S products, which are expected to replace imports [7] - The company has a strong order backlog, with inventory and contract liabilities reaching 2.057 billion yuan and 815 million yuan respectively, indicating robust future revenue growth [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [6]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading player in the new energy mica products sector, experiencing rapid growth in performance, with a revenue of 1.135 billion yuan in 2024, up 41.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 230 million yuan, up 34.0% year-on-year [1][14]. - The company has a strong order backlog and is actively expanding overseas production capacity, with expected sales from new energy projects amounting to approximately 9.238 to 9.963 billion yuan, primarily from overseas orders [2][25]. - The company is entering the robot screw field by acquiring a 51% stake in Shanghai Diz Precision Machinery Co., Ltd. (KGG), which is expected to enhance its growth potential in the robotics sector [3][36]. Summary by Sections New Energy Mica Products - The company has a leading market share of 27% in the global new energy mica products sector, with a strong focus on high-temperature insulation materials for electric vehicles [13]. - The revenue from new energy products reached 898 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 56%, accounting for 79% of total revenue [19]. Order Backlog and Overseas Expansion - The company has established deep partnerships with high-quality clients such as Tesla, Volkswagen, and CATL, resulting in a robust order backlog [2][25]. - The company is expanding its overseas production capabilities, with projects in Mexico and Thailand aimed at meeting increasing demand [30]. Robotics Sector Entry - The acquisition of KGG is aimed at leveraging existing customer resources to penetrate the robotics components market, particularly in humanoid robots [3][36]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1.568 billion yuan, 2.228 billion yuan, and 3.057 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 38.2%, 42.1%, and 37.2% [4][40]. - The expected net profits for the same years are 322 million yuan, 452 million yuan, and 632 million yuan, with growth rates of 39.9%, 40.2%, and 40.1% [4][40].