（卫宁健康）25年医疗IT行业复苏有限，AI投入仍为重点预估26年发力 25年业绩预告：归母净利润预估亏损2.4-2.8亿（24年亏损2.6亿），扣非净利润预估亏损2.5-2.9亿（24年-2.6亿）。 主要由于行业复苏有限，医保控费改革后院端自有资金医疗IT建设需求缩减，同时公司加大对数据和AI业务产品 投入。 25年业绩预告：归母净利润预估亏损4.7-5.7亿(24年+0.6亿），扣非净利润预估亏损4.9-5.9亿（24年+0.3亿）。 主要由于体外诊断集采影响收入和毛利率。 预估26年AI医疗加速院端落地。 25年业绩预告：归母净利润预估亏损3.2-3.9亿（24年+0.9亿），扣非净利润预估亏损3-3.7亿（24年+1.2亿）。 主要由于行业复苏有限、计提减值、互联网医疗部分业务优化等因素。 26年着重推进WiNEX产品AI化，加大AI投入。 25年业绩预告：归母净利润预估亏损3.2-3.9亿（24年+0.9亿），扣非净利润预估亏损3-3.7亿（24年+1.2亿）。 主要由于行业复苏有限、计提减值、互联网医疗部分业务优化等因素。 26年着重推进WiNEX产品AI化，加大AI投入。 25年业绩预告：归 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The transformer manufacturing sector in China is experiencing a surge in demand, with factories in Guangdong and Jiangsu operating at full capacity, and some orders for data center projects extending to 2027 [1] - The delivery cycle for the U.S. market has increased from 50 weeks to 127 weeks, indicating a significant backlog in supply [1] Core Insights and Arguments - The demand side is exceeding expectations due to the initiation of new energy construction and grid upgrades since 2023, alongside an anticipated AI boom in 2025 that is accelerating data center development [1] - On the supply side, there is a rigid production capacity, and delays in expansion plans from overseas manufacturers are contributing to a high dependency on electric transformers [1] - The industry has faced long periods of low profit margins prior to 2023, leading to a reduction in production capacity and a loss of skilled labor [1] - Major companies like Siemens Energy and Hyundai Electric are experiencing delays in capacity expansion due to postponed training for technical personnel [1] Additional Important Points - China's transformer production capacity accounts for 60% of the global market, with delivery cycles being less than one-fifth of that of European and American companies, which aligns with the urgent need for AI computing power and data center construction [2] - A review of current expansion plans from overseas manufacturers indicates that by 2030, there will still be a 10% shortage of electric transformers in Europe and the U.S., suggesting continued benefits for domestic companies from overseas orders [2] Investment Recommendations - Suggested investments include high-voltage equipment exports and components from companies such as Siyi Electric, TBEA, and Huaming Equipment [2] - Domestic investment opportunities are identified in companies like Pinggao Electric, China West Electric, XJ Electric, and Guodian NARI [2]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry: Precious Metals Core Facts - COMEX gold/silver experienced the largest single-day drop since the 1980s, approximately -10% [1] - ETF trading volume reached a record high, with GLD accounting for 8% of total U.S. ETF trading volume in one day, and open interest in options hitting a historical peak [1] - Shanghai silver futures repeatedly hit the daily limit down, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange saw a 1% reduction in long positions during night trading [1] Interpretation - The decline is attributed not to "macro headwinds" but rather to a "positioning and liquidity" event: - After nine consecutive weeks of increases, gold/silver became a "consensus long," with non-traditional commodity accounts (wealth managers, RIAs, family offices) heavily entering the market [2] - Large short-term sell orders (GLD block) triggered volatility model stop-losses, leading high-frequency market makers to withdraw liquidity, resulting in a negative gamma self-reinforcement [2] - A similar scenario occurred on October 21, where GLD holdings did not decrease, indicating that "true believers" among long positions did not exit; if holdings remain stable, short covering is likely to occur quickly [2] Strategy - For short-term trading, $2400 per ounce is seen as a psychological buffer; if ETF holdings do not continue to decline, a rebound can be anticipated [3] - In the medium term, if the U.S. dollar strengthens due to "Warsh + fiscal expansion," precious metals may lose their beta; a return to the market will depend on a decline in real interest rates or accelerated central bank gold purchases [3]

Summary of Company and Industry Insights Company Overview - The company is a comprehensive chemical leader, leveraging rich phosphate resources in Yichang to establish a complete phosphate chemical industry chain [1] - Unlike traditional phosphate chemical leaders, the company possesses a deep-rooted innovation and R&D DNA, with significant investments in R&D leading to the development of multiple new energy materials and high-end new material products [1] Core Insights - The company has a diversified business layout and synergistic advantages within its industry chain, as detailed in the deep report titled "Riding on Phosphorus, Focusing on High-End, Multiple Lines Flying Together" [1] - The focus of the current report is on the company's advancements in new energy materials (such as iron phosphate, lithium iron phosphate, and solid-state materials like phosphorus pentasulfide) and high-value-added new materials (including semiconductor materials and black phosphorus) [1] Industry Dynamics - The main bulk products, including phosphate fertilizer, glyphosate, and organic silicon, are currently at a low point in the market cycle but are expected to benefit from a reversal of internal competition and improvements in industry supply and demand, potentially leading to a market recovery [2] - The key growth segments, particularly new energy materials and high-end new materials, show significant promise and are expected to continuously contribute to performance growth, maintaining a "buy" rating for the company [2]

因为国产设备在调试线上的表现大超预期，良率爬坡极快，所以不需要再在调试线上浪费时间了，直接把设备挪 到量产线上去"大干快上"。 出处未知 关于"设备砍单"的谣言与真相。 出处未知 关于"设备砍单"的谣言与真相。 上周四周五，半导体设备板块有所调整，原因是传闻长存"砍"了某国产设备的订单。 这完全是误读。 真实情况是：之前那是调试线（Debug），现在要转入量产线（HighVolume）。 这是国产设备验证通过、正式进入放量期的超级利好。 上周四周五，半导体设备板块有所调整，原因是传闻长存"砍"了某国产设备的订单。 这完全是误读。 真实情况是：之前那是调试线（Debug），现在要转入量产线（HighVolume）。 这哪里是利空？ 因为国产设备在调试线上的表现大超预期，良率爬坡极快，所以不需要再在调试线上浪费时间了，直接把设备挪 到量产线上去"大干快上"。 ...

【技术面与情绪压力双重夹击 金银震荡波及亚洲股市】 首尔未来资产证券分析师Seo Sang-Young表示，黄金和白银波动率上升造成的大宗商品市场冲击，引发了机构投资 者的流动性冲击和追加保证金，其连锁反应导致股市大幅下挫。 新加坡华侨银行策略师Christopher Wong称：贵金属的持续抛售反映了技术面与情绪压力的叠加。 虽然经过回调后价格有所下滑，但对美元走势、收益率再定价以及美联储政策不确定性的敏感性仍然很高；同 时，与保证金相关的被动卖出以及触发止损单进一步放大了跌势。 虽然经过回调后价格有所下滑，但对美元走势、收益率再定价以及美联储政策不 【技术面与情绪压力双重夹击 金银震荡波及亚洲股市】 首尔未来资产证券分析师Seo Sang-Young表示，黄金和白银波动率上升造成的大宗商品市场冲击，引发了机构投资 者的流动性冲击和追加保证金，其连锁反应导致股市大幅下挫。 新加坡华侨银行策略师Christopher Wong称：贵金属的持续抛售反映了技术面与情绪压力的叠加。 ...

Company and Industry Analysis Summary Company Overview - The company entered the electrolyte additive industry in 2003, becoming a pioneer in the large-scale production of VC and FEC for lithium battery electrolyte additives, and is recognized as the global leader in VC electrolyte additives [1][1]. Financial Performance - The company experienced three consecutive years of price pressure and declining performance from 2022 to 2024. However, it is expected to turn profitable in 2025 as the downstream lithium battery market improves, leading to a better supply-demand balance and price support for its products [1][1]. - The projected non-GAAP net profit for Q4 2025 is estimated at 50 million yuan, indicating a turning point in profitability [1][1]. Industry Dynamics - The demand for electrolyte additives is expected to surge, with a reversal in supply-demand dynamics driving price increases. The lithium battery sector is entering an upward cycle [1][2]. - Global VC shipments are anticipated to exceed 100,000 tons in 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 39%, and are projected to reach 250,000 tons by 2030 [1][1]. Supply-Demand Improvements - The supply-demand landscape for VC is expected to continue improving from 2023 to 2026, with estimated industry operating rates of 60%, 71%, 87%, and 96% respectively [2][2]. - A significant event occurred on November 12, 2025, when Shandong Genyuan announced equipment maintenance, leading to a spike in VC prices and marking the beginning of an upward cycle in the VC supply-demand structure [2][2]. Company Advantages - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the recovery in VC prices and is actively expanding into new growth areas, including silicon-based anode materials, recycled graphite anodes, and high-purity lithium sulfide for all-solid-state batteries [2][2]. - Profitability estimates for the company are projected at 15 million yuan, 143 million yuan, and 204 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios for 2026 and 2027 are expected to be 11x and 8x [2][2]. - A target price of 28 billion yuan is set for the company based on a 20x PE ratio for 2026, with an initial coverage rating of "Buy" [2][2].

机器人编码器：MCU＋旋变 机器人编码器：MCU＋旋变 #三代机器人即将亮相，板块行情有望反转。 机器人整体板块前期调整充分，三代机器人即将发布，三代机器人发布意味着机器人量产渐进，整体板块有望上 行。 #机器人MCU+旋变空间巨大。 #三代机器人即将亮相，板块行情有望反转。 机器人整体板块前期调整充分，三代机器人即将发布，三代机器人发布意味着机器人量产渐进，整体板块有望上 行。 #机器人MCU+旋变空间巨大。 多家tier1反馈电机芯片采用海外居多，未来将替换成国产MCU+旋变，国产MCU等产品可实现驱控模块成本降低 40%，替代空间巨大。 公司深度绑定头部供应链，与多家tier1客户合作，机器人MCU+旋变份额将大幅提升，目标市值414亿元，待涨底 部标的，向上弹性高。 多家tier1反馈电机芯片采用海外居多，未来将替换成国产MCU+旋变，国产MCU等产品可实现驱控模块成本降低 40%，替代空间巨大。 #峰岹科技卡位机器人关节大脑，翻倍空间可期。 ...

【东方财富策略陈果市场下跌点评：这次调整并不担心，春季行情二波论，但这次调整也可能是未来真正巨震的 一个预演】 在前期市场最亢奋时，我们提示本轮春季行情会走成两波，目前市场走势验证中。 需要看到，本次A股跨年行情第一波的隐线其实还是跟着海外：去年底低点是担心联储不降息 /AI泡沫论（当时我 也指出市场过于悲观，是布局机会），这波是担心新联储主席缩表 。 年初市场的宽 【东方财富策略陈果市场下跌点评：这次调整并不担心，春季行情二波论，但这次调整也可能是未来真正巨震的 一个预演】 至于市场担心沃什缩表，我认为：1. 相信常识，既然特朗普要换鲍威尔不是要换上一个鹰派。 2.沃什上任后的联储决策和多年前沃什的观点不宜画等号。 3.市场对沃什的鹰派已做出反应，后续可以看下他的最新言论，例如后续国会听证会他的表态可能会给市场一颗 定心丸。 总体来说，我认为后续预期会收敛，不至于鸽到QE预期，也不至于太鹰。 市场稳住阵脚后，发现国内微观流动性基础仍在。 经历了第一波的回荡之后，春季行情第二波的躁动程度预计会降低，海外因素预计会降低，结构会比第一波更平 衡，也会有一些资金着眼三四月之后，开始布局内需，等待相关政策。 看得更长 ...

机械板块2月思路： 1、光模块自动化设备。 易中天业绩都比较超预期，美股lite下周发业绩，也比较好。 光模块自动化设备有机会。 首推＃科瑞技术 2、北美缺电方向持续演绎。 光模块自动化设备有机会。 首推＃科瑞技术 2、北美缺电方向持续演绎。 杰瑞股份又拿了新燃机订单，新客户。 几个大厂（卡特、特灵，gev等）上周的财报反馈排产满，订单好。 杰瑞股份又拿了新燃机订单，新客户。 几个大厂（卡特、特灵，gev等）上周的财报反馈排产满，订单好。 ＃杰瑞＃联德＃应流等。 机械板块2月思路： 1、光模块自动化设备。 易中天业绩都比较超预期，美股lite下周发业绩，也比较好。 4、人形机器人 锋龙股份解除监管（优必选借壳），看看能否带动一下板块。 其实，最近机器人里面一些个股默默新高，比如绿的谐波。 ＃杰瑞＃联德＃应流等。 另外，太空光伏，不管是特斯拉地面光伏团队还是space x团队，审厂，订设备，节奏都会比较快。 周末讨论space x发卫星也比较多，还是板块性机会。 ＃迈为＃捷佳＃连城＃晶盛机电＃高测股份＃奥特维 3、工程机械&矿山机械 1月出口可能是几十的增长，超预期。 恒立液压春节可能不放假，大年初一就开始生产 ...