Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 117.83 RMB [7][8]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated stable revenue growth with a 1H25 revenue of 15.65 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 17.4% [1]. - The acquisition of Creo Medical S.L.U. (CME) has contributed positively to the company's performance, with 1H25 overseas revenue reaching 9.1 billion RMB, a 45% increase year-on-year [2]. - Domestic revenue faced challenges due to expanded procurement coverage, resulting in a 6.6% decline to 6.6 billion RMB in 1H25, but there are expectations for marginal improvement due to "anti-involution" measures in procurement [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - 1H25 revenue and net profit were 15.65 billion RMB and 3.63 billion RMB respectively, with year-on-year growth of 17.4% and 17.0% [1]. - The company’s gross margin in 1H25 was 64.89%, down 3.04 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to margin pressure from procurement [4]. Overseas Market Expansion - The company’s overseas revenue accounted for 58% of total revenue in 1H25, with significant growth in the European, Middle Eastern, and African markets, where revenue increased by 89% [2]. - The integration of CME is progressing well, enhancing the company's market presence in Europe [2]. Domestic Market Challenges - Domestic revenue was impacted by increased competition and procurement pressures, leading to a 6.6% decline in 1H25 [3]. - The company is adapting its sales strategy to improve performance in the domestic market, with expectations for gradual recovery as procurement policies evolve [3]. Future Projections - The report projects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 6.71 billion RMB, 8.12 billion RMB, and 9.72 billion RMB respectively, indicating a compound annual growth rate of approximately 21% [5]. - The target price reflects a 33x PE valuation for 2025, compared to a peer average of 27x [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of RMB 74.80 [2][5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 909 billion for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%, and a net profit of RMB 61 billion, down 25% year-on-year. The second quarter saw a revenue of RMB 478 billion, a decrease of 6% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 11% year-on-year, with net profit at RMB 30 billion, down 24% quarter-on-quarter but stable compared to the previous year [2][3]. - The report indicates that while the petrochemical sector faces pressure due to increased capacity, medium to long-term recovery in domestic demand and improved industry competition are expected to enhance profitability [2][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company sold 303,000 tons of polyurethane, 285,000 tons of petrochemicals, and 119,000 tons of new materials, with year-on-year changes of +13%, +4%, and +29% respectively. Revenue from these segments was RMB 369 billion, RMB 349 billion, and RMB 156 billion, with year-on-year changes of +4%, -12%, and +20% respectively [3]. - The overall gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 13.8%, down 2.6% year-on-year, while the second quarter gross margin was 12.2%, a decrease of 3.5 percentage points from the first quarter [3][5]. Market Conditions - As of August 8, 2025, prices for pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI increased by 3%, 3%, and 45% respectively compared to the average in the second quarter, indicating a short-term improvement in TDI market conditions. However, the petrochemical sector remains weak, although the price spreads for propylene and ethylene have improved by 36% and 6% respectively [4]. - The report anticipates gradual recovery in the polyurethane, petrochemical, and new materials sectors due to domestic demand recovery and reduced capital expenditure growth in the industry [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025 has been adjusted downwards, with expected net profits of RMB 138 billion, RMB 178 billion, and RMB 208 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of +5.7%, +29.1%, and +17% [5]. - The target price of RMB 74.80 is based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 17x for 2025, reflecting the company's leading position in the polyurethane industry [5].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Huayi Group with an "Accumulate" rating and sets a target price of RMB 9.72, based on a 2025 PE of 18x [1][6]. Core Views - Huayi Group is a comprehensive chemical enterprise controlled by the Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, with business segments including coal-based methanol/acetic acid, acrylic acid, tires, coatings, daily chemicals, and chemical services. The company's methanol/acetic acid/acrylic acid business is expected to benefit from price elasticity due to its scale advantages. With the ongoing state-owned enterprise reform, the continuous injection of quality assets from the controlling shareholder, such as San Aifu and Guangxi Energy Chemical, is likely to lead to a revaluation of the company's value [1][14]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Huayi Group is a large chemical group controlled by the Shanghai State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, with a diversified business portfolio that includes coal-based methanol/acetic acid, acrylic acid, tires, coatings, daily chemicals, and chemical services. The company has a significant market presence in methanol and acetic acid production [19][22]. Production Capacity - The company has leading production capacities in methanol (1.61 million tons/year), acetic acid (1.3 million tons/year), and acrylic acid (720,000 tons/year), positioning it among the top in the industry. The expansion of MTO (Methanol to Olefins) and the impact of geopolitical conflicts on imported methanol supply may lead to a tight supply situation for methanol, while acetic acid and acrylic acid are expected to stabilize and recover in profitability [2][15]. Business Synergy and Asset Injection - The company has been enhancing its business synergy through the acquisition of quality assets from its controlling shareholder. The acquisition of a 60% stake in Shanghai Huayi San Aifu New Materials for RMB 4.09 billion has strengthened its position in the fluorochemical sector. The integration of various business segments is expected to improve operational efficiency and profitability [16][17]. Market Revaluation Potential - The company is currently trading below its book value (PB < 1), and with the ongoing state-owned enterprise reforms and the expected improvement in performance, there is potential for a revaluation of the company's market value. The continuous injection of quality assets from the controlling shareholder is anticipated to enhance the company's overall value [4][17][18]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts the company's net profit attributable to shareholders to be RMB 1.14 billion, RMB 1.38 billion, and RMB 1.56 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 25%, 21%, and 13%. The corresponding EPS is projected to be RMB 0.54, RMB 0.65, and RMB 0.73 for the same years [6][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianfu Communication, Ruijie Network, China Mobile, China Telecom, and Hengtong Optics, while recommending "Hold" for China Unicom [9][42]. Core Viewpoints - The commercial aerospace sector is experiencing significant developments, with a notable increase in satellite launches, particularly the successful launch of the low-orbit satellite group on August 4 [3][12]. - The report emphasizes the growth opportunities in the satellite internet and commercial aerospace sectors, driven by high-frequency launches and advancements in satellite technology [2][16]. - The AI-driven optical fiber industry is also highlighted, with companies like Changfei Fiber and Hengtong Optics making strides in advanced optical materials and production capacity [2][4]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The communication index rose by 1.3%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 2.11% and the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.25% [2][12]. - The report notes the successful launch of the low-orbit satellite group and anticipates continued high-frequency launches to meet network demands [2][12]. Commercial Aerospace Developments - Key events include the successful launch of the Long March 12 rocket, which significantly increased the launch frequency to an average of one every three days [3][13]. - The report suggests that the rocket industry is poised for breakthroughs in the second half of 2025, with numerous catalytic events expected to boost market sentiment [3][15]. Key Companies and Dynamics - The report identifies several companies with strong growth potential, including Tianfu Communication, Ruijie Network, China Mobile, China Telecom, Hengtong Optics, and Huace Navigation, focusing on AI computing power and satellite internet [4][42]. - Specific recommendations include maintaining a "Buy" rating for Tianfu Communication and Ruijie Network based on their strong performance and growth prospects in the AI and optical fiber sectors [42][43]. Investment Opportunities - The report highlights the potential for investment in the satellite internet sector, driven by both domestic and international developments, including the deployment of satellite constellations and advancements in ground infrastructure [16][15]. - The focus on AI computing power and the optical fiber industry is expected to create further investment opportunities as demand for high-speed data transmission increases [2][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of $273.00 [1][5][7] Core Views - The company has reached an agreement with the U.S. government to invest an additional $100 billion, totaling $600 billion over four years, to bring more of its supply chain and cash manufacturing to the U.S. to seek tariff reductions [1] - The establishment of a domestic "end-to-end" silicon supply chain is a key goal, with collaborations with various partners to enhance local production capabilities [2] - The company is expected to benefit from potential tariff exemptions, which could improve its cost structure compared to competitors [3] Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The company is rated "Buy" with a target price of $273.00, reflecting a positive outlook based on expected growth and strategic investments [1][5][7] Strategic Developments - The CEO has committed to significant investments in the U.S. to enhance local manufacturing and potentially reduce tariffs [1] - Collaborations with companies like Samsung and Corning are aimed at developing innovative manufacturing technologies and increasing local production of key components [2] Market Position - The company holds significant market shares in various consumer electronics categories in the U.S., with 69% in smartphones and 24% in PCs, indicating strong competitive positioning [3] - The potential for tariff exemptions could further enhance the company's market share against competitors like Samsung and Lenovo [3] Financial Projections - The company’s projected net profits for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 are $113 billion, $123 billion, and $134 billion respectively, with expected growth rates of 20.5%, 9.1%, and 8.6% [5][10] - The estimated PE ratio for FY2025 is 36.6x, which is lower than the average of comparable companies at 53x, suggesting a favorable valuation [5][12]

今日早参 2025 年 8 月 11 日 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 易峘 首席宏观经济学家 邮箱：evayi@htsc.com 今日热点 宏观：经济数据趋弱，联储表态转鸽 上周 7 月 ISM 服务业 PMI 明显回落，首申续申亦超预期上行，显示出美国经 济动能短期下行风险加大。特朗普新一轮对等关税正式生效，美日关税协议 出现争议，中美关税或继续延期 90 天。特朗普任命 Miran 为联储过渡理事， 联储官员表态多数偏鸽。全周来看，美债收益率上行，美股三大股指上涨， 美元走弱，大宗商品涨跌不一。本周关注美国 7 月 CPI（8 月 12 日)、7 月美 国零售（8 月 15 日），美俄阿拉斯加会谈（8 月 15 日）。 风险提示：美国就业数据放缓速度超预期，金融体系脆弱性爆发。 研报发布日期：2025-08-10 研究员 易峘 SAC:S0570520100005 SFC:AMH263 胡李鹏 SAC:S0570525010001 SFC:BWA860 陈玮 SAC:S0570524030003 SFC:BVH37 ...

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The current rebound in M1 growth rate has different causes from previous cycles, with certain base effects. Both the corporate and household sectors contribute under the new caliber, and the core is the re - allocation effect under low interest rates. Its implications for capital market liquidity are more worthy of attention than economic activity [1]. - In the short - term, the bond market is still in the stage of improving expectations but lacks a clear main line. The trading range of the 10 - year Treasury bond remains between 1.6 - 1.8%. The loose funding situation clearly benefits the short - end, while the long - end and ultra - long - end are repeatedly disturbed by the stock market and domestic demand policies [1]. - The new VAT regulations are still an important observation point. Coupled with the loose funding situation, long - term interest rates should be regarded as band opportunities. It is recommended to moderately seize the coupon opportunities of ordinary credit bonds, Tier 2 capital bonds, and certificates of deposit, with the yield curve slightly steepening [1]. - In terms of operation, band + coupon > leverage > duration > credit risk exposure. From the perspective of asset allocation, equities are still stronger than bonds, but short - term fluctuations increase [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. This Week's Strategy View: Significance of M1 Growth Rate Rebound - Last week, the funding situation was loose, and the impact of the new VAT regulations was the core concern. The stock market and commodities performed strongly, and bond yields continued to fluctuate. The yields of 10 - year Treasury bonds and active CDB bonds remained basically flat at 1.69% and 1.79% respectively compared with the previous week, the yield of 30 - year Treasury bonds rose 2BP to 1.92%, the 10 - 1 - year term spread remained basically flat, and credit spreads narrowed slightly [9]. - This week's financial data is about to be released. Bill rates indicate that credit may perform weakly, social financing is not weak, and M1 is the focus. In the first half of this year, the year - on - year growth rate of M1 rebounded rapidly, from 1.2% in December last year to 4.6% [10]. 2. M1's Leading Role in the Macroeconomy: Source and Evolution - Historically, M1 had a certain leading role in economic variables such as prices, nominal growth, and corporate profits, mainly because M1 changes were mainly affected by corporate demand deposits. Corporate demand deposits came from real economic activities such as export settlement, household consumption and housing purchases, government revenues and expenditures, and corporate expansion investments, so M1 could reflect the real capital activation degree of micro - entities [2][12]. - In the past decade, the economic cycle mainly relied on real estate, and M1's leading role was more significant. However, in recent years, M1's leading role in the economy has weakened significantly, mainly related to the transformation of the economic growth model and the reduced volatility of the data itself [2][12]. - Since January this year, the central bank has adopted a new revised M1 statistical caliber, which adds household demand deposits and balances of third - party payment platforms such as Alipay/WeChat. The overall trends of the old and new M1 are basically the same [2][13]. 3. Main Reasons for the Current Rebound: Base Effect and Re - allocation under Low Interest Rates - M0 and customer reserves of non - bank payment institutions changed little in the first half of the year and contributed little to M1. The increase in M1 growth rate can be largely explained by corporate demand deposits [3][14]. - Reasons for the increase in corporate demand deposits include: the base effect caused by manual interest compensation last year; the re - allocation of corporate time deposits under the low - interest environment; the acceleration of fiscal expenditures and debt resolution improving corporate cash flows; and the shortening of the accounts receivable cycle of small and medium - sized enterprises [3][18][21]. - Household demand deposits are also rising rapidly and have a higher absolute contribution to the year - on - year growth of M1. The increase in the activation degree of household deposits is also due to the re - allocation effect caused by the decline in deposit interest rates. In addition, policies have supported the improvement of household consumption activities compared with last year [3][26]. - The seasonality of the overall deposit term structure can explain the M1 rebound in June to some extent [27]. 4. Characteristics of the Current M1 Rebound Different from Previous Ones - This rebound is likely to be jointly driven by the household and corporate sectors, and the "quantitative change to qualitative change" caused by the continuous decline in deposit interest rates seems to be the core factor [4]. - Due to the extremely low base last year, the high - growth trend of M1 year - on - year may last until at least October. After that, the trend of M1 will depend more on the endogenous economic momentum [4][33]. - The rebound of M1 is more significant for capital market liquidity than for economic activity. It may be accompanied by capital re - allocation behavior, and the off - market opportunity cost in the capital market is low, bringing new funds [4][33]. 5. Implications for the Market - The rebound of M1 has triggered discussions about the recovery of economic vitality, but more evidence is needed. With anti - involution factors, the bottom of the stock market's performance is expected, but it is still difficult to be performance - driven [5]. - This rebound of M1 is partly due to the contribution of the household sector and the re - allocation of corporate funds under low interest rates. The stock market faces a good liquidity environment, with many hot - spot and thematic opportunities [5]. - The cause of the M1 growth rate rebound determines that the re - allocation effect under low interest rates exceeds the fundamental recovery effect, having little impact on the bond market. If it continues to exceed expectations after the base effect, it may be an early signal of economic recovery, which may trigger an adjustment in the bond market [5]. 6. This Week's Bond Market Strategy - Last week's export data exceeded expectations, and inflation remained low, indicating that the characteristics of the economic fundamentals, including overall resilience, structural differentiation, and wave - like operation, continue. The bond market is expected to continue to be in a volatile pattern with a ceiling and a floor, and the trading range of the 10 - year Treasury bond remains between 1.6 - 1.8% [39]. - Last week, the funding situation continued to be loose, and the overnight interest rate tested the previous low. The central bank's support is expected to continue. The loose funding situation clearly benefits the short - end, but the long - end and ultra - long - end are not fully priced, and the yield curve steepens slightly. It is recommended to actively explore interest - spread leverage opportunities at the short - end and increase holdings at the long - end and ultra - long - end on dips [39]. - The impact of the new VAT regulations on new bonds is controllable, and old bonds have relatively better cost - effectiveness. It is recommended to moderately seize the opportunities of ordinary credit bonds, Tier 2 capital bonds, certificates of deposit, and other core varieties of public funds and asset management products [40]. - In terms of operation ideas, band + coupon > leverage > duration > credit risk exposure. From the perspective of asset allocation, equities are still stronger than bonds, but short - term equity fluctuations increase, and convertible bond valuations are high [40].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Genetic Programming Industry Rotation Model - **Model Name**: Genetic Programming Industry Rotation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: Directly extract factors from industry index data such as volume, price, and valuation, and update the factor library at the end of each quarter[30] - **Model Construction Process**: The model adopts weekly frequency rebalancing, selecting the top five industries with the highest composite multi-factor scores for equal-weight allocation every weekend[30] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has achieved an absolute return of 28.79% this year, outperforming the industry equal-weight benchmark by 17.68 percentage points[30] - **Model Testing Results**: - Annualized Return: 31.39% - Annualized Volatility: 18.12% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.73 - Maximum Drawdown: -19.63% - Calmar Ratio: 1.60 - Last Week Performance: 3.15% - Year-to-Date (YTD): 28.79%[32] Absolute Return ETF Simulation Portfolio - **Model Name**: Absolute Return ETF Simulation Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: The asset allocation weights are mainly calculated based on the recent trends of various assets, with stronger trend assets assigned higher weights. The internal equity asset allocation weights directly adopt the monthly views of the monthly frequency industry rotation model[34] - **Model Construction Process**: The model's latest holdings include dividend style ETFs and ETFs related to pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, media, steel, and energy chemicals[36] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has risen by 0.34% last week and has accumulated a 5.69% return this year[34] - **Model Testing Results**: - Annualized Return: 6.52% - Annualized Volatility: 3.81% - Maximum Drawdown: 4.65% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.71 - Calmar Ratio: 1.40 - Year-to-Date (YTD): 5.69% - Last Week Performance: 0.34%[39] Global Asset Allocation Simulation Portfolio - **Model Name**: Global Asset Allocation Simulation Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: Predict future returns of global major assets using a cycle three-factor pricing model, and construct the portfolio using a "momentum selects assets, cycle adjusts weights" risk budgeting framework[40] - **Model Construction Process**: The strategy currently overweights bonds and foreign exchange, with higher risk budgets assigned to assets such as Chinese bonds and US bonds[40] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy has achieved an annualized return of 7.22% in the backtest period, with a Sharpe ratio of 1.50[40] - **Model Testing Results**: - Annualized Return: 7.22% - Annualized Volatility: 4.82% - Maximum Drawdown: -6.44% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.50 - Calmar Ratio: 1.12 - Year-to-Date (YTD): -3.04% - Last Week Performance: 0.61%[41] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Sentiment Indicators - **Factor Name**: Sentiment Indicators - **Factor Construction Idea**: Construct sentiment indicators from the perspectives of the put-call ratio, implied volatility, and basis in the options and futures markets[2] - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Put-Call Ratio**: Observe the ratio of the trading volume of call options to put options in the 50ETF and 500ETF options markets[17] - **Implied Volatility**: Construct the implied volatility ratio series of call and put options[20] - **Basis**: Construct the annualized basis rate weighted by the open interest for the four major stock index futures products[26] - **Factor Evaluation**: The sentiment indicators show that the previous overheating sentiment in the A-share market has continued to ease[2] Factor Backtesting Results Sentiment Indicators - **Put-Call Ratio**: The ratio has significantly fallen from the high levels observed on July 23, indicating a more rational market sentiment[17] - **Implied Volatility Ratio**: Despite the stock market rebound last week, the implied volatility ratio of call options to put options has been trending downward, further reflecting rational investor sentiment[20] - **Annualized Basis Rate**: The basis rate has been fluctuating downward, indicating rational sentiment in the futures market[26]

证券研究报告 策略 如何抓住香港本地股的配置机遇 2025 年 8 月 10 日│中国内地 策略周报 香港本地股表现强势，获得超额收益 在《港股重估蓄势待发》，2025.5.23 等报告中，华泰总量及行业团队提出 需战略性重视香港的配置，除了投资者熟知的香港中资股外，也强调关注香 港本身作为小型开放经济体的修复（《香港资产相对优势凸显》，2025.5.22）， 以及香港地产（《把握资产重估预期下的香港地产机遇》，2025.5.25）、 银行（《重视中国资产重估下港银机会》，2025.5.23）、非银（《港交所： 人民币升值预期下的价值重估》，2025.8.10）等资产重估机会。2025 年 5 月 23 日至今，香港本地股和 MSCI 香港指数分别上涨 10.2%和 12.4%，相 对恒生指数（5.3%）和 MSCI 中国指数（5.9%）均有超额收益。 免责声明和披露以及分析师声明是报告的一部分，请务必一起阅读。 华泰研究 易峘 研究员 SAC No. S0570520100005 SFC No. AMH263 李雨婕 研究员 SAC No. S0570525050001 SFC No. BRG962 香港本 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model 1: Commodity Term Structure Model - **Construction Idea**: This model captures the state of commodity contango and backwardation using the roll yield factor, dynamically going long on commodities with high roll yields and short on those with low roll yields[23][24] - **Construction Process**: - Identify the roll yield for each commodity - Rank commodities based on their roll yields - Go long on commodities with the highest roll yields and short on those with the lowest roll yields - **Evaluation**: The model has shown good performance recently, particularly in the industrial metals and agricultural products sectors[23][24] Model 2: Commodity Time Series Momentum Model - **Construction Idea**: This model captures medium to long-term trends in domestic commodities using multiple technical indicators, dynamically going long on assets with upward trends and short on those with downward trends[23][24] - **Construction Process**: - Use technical indicators to identify trends in commodity prices - Rank commodities based on their trend strength - Go long on commodities with the strongest upward trends and short on those with the strongest downward trends - **Evaluation**: The model has underperformed recently, with significant losses in the black and energy chemical sectors[33][35] Model 3: Commodity Cross-Sectional Inventory Model - **Construction Idea**: This model captures changes in the domestic commodity fundamentals using the inventory factor, dynamically going long on assets with decreasing inventories and short on those with increasing inventories[23][24] - **Construction Process**: - Identify inventory levels for each commodity - Rank commodities based on their inventory changes - Go long on commodities with the largest inventory decreases and short on those with the largest inventory increases - **Evaluation**: The model has shown mixed performance, with significant losses in the agricultural products sector[39][41] Model Backtesting Results Commodity Term Structure Model - **Recent Two-Week Return**: 1.69%[26] - **Year-to-Date Return**: 3.09%[28] - **Top Contributors**: Glass (1.27%), PVC (0.32%), Rubber (0.31%)[30] - **Top Detractors**: Sugar (-0.16%), PTA (-0.24%), Methanol (-0.25%)[30] Commodity Time Series Momentum Model - **Recent Two-Week Return**: -1.22%[26] - **Year-to-Date Return**: -3.17%[33] - **Top Contributors**: Soybean Oil (0.26%), LPG (0.16%), Soybean Meal (0.07%)[37] - **Top Detractors**: Rebar (-0.28%), Soda Ash (-0.30%), Cotton (-0.33%)[37] Commodity Cross-Sectional Inventory Model - **Recent Two-Week Return**: -0.56%[26] - **Year-to-Date Return**: 3.42%[39] - **Top Contributors**: Corn (0.54%), Polypropylene (0.27%), Nickel (0.22%)[43] - **Top Detractors**: PVC (-0.26%), Cotton (-0.39%), Soybean Oil (-0.46%)[43]