证券研究报告 招商证券 (6099 HK/600999 CH) 港股通 经纪同比高增，利润增长稳健 华泰研究 中报点评 2025 年 8 月 29 日│中国内地/中国香港 证券 招商证券发布半年报，2025 年 H1 实现营收 105.20 亿元（yoy+9.64%）， 归母净利 51.86 亿元（yoy+9.23%）。其中 Q2 实现营收 58.07 亿元 （yoy+9.64%，qoq+23.22%），归母净利 28.78 亿元（yoy+11.11%， qoq+24.73%）。公司拟每 10 股中期分红 1.19 元。考虑到公司经纪收入同 比高增、受益于市场景气度上行，维持 A/H 股买入评级。 经纪收入同比高增，财富管理转型深化 25H1 公司经纪业务净收入 37.33 亿元，同比增长 45%。公司坚定推进财富 管理业务转型，25H1 末财富管理客户数、高净值客户数分别同比增长 45.53%、23.99%。在打造金融产品能力方面，重点强化 ETF、私募基金等 产品的配置能力，稳固客户资产配置的基本盘；公司正常交易客户数约 2,006 万户，同比增长 8.85%，托管客户资产 4.56 万亿元，较 2024 ...

证券研究报告 中广核矿业 (1164 HK) 2025 年 8 月 29 日│中国香港 其他金属非金属新材料及加工 8 月 28 日中广核矿业（1164 HK）出席了我们组织的 2025 年秋季策略会， 会上公司就天然铀供需格局、现货/长协市场交易量与铀价趋势、公司国际 贸易板块重点分析，以及对未来展望进行了交流。 盈利预测与估值 公司 25H1 国际贸易业务亏损系一次性影响，且 25H2 起公司高价订单交付 和签约策略调整下盈利修复可期，我们维持 25-27 年归母净利 3.48、10.39、 11.23 亿港币（同比+1.84%、+198.42%、+8.04%），对应 EPS 为 0.05、 0.14、0.15 港币。我们参考 Visible Alpha 可比公司 2026 年估值中枢 （22.1xPE），考虑未来现货铀价波动仍存在不确定性，维持公司 2026E 21.5xPE 估值，目标价 3.01 港币。 风险提示：核电事故风险，行业需求不及预期。 2025 年秋季策略会速递—— 国际贸易跨期合约 25H2 起预期改善 核心观点： 华泰研究 动态点评 投资评级(维持): 增持 目标价(港币): 3.0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 44.84 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 670 million RMB, a year-over-year decrease of 14.57%, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of 62.18 million RMB, reflecting a significant year-over-year decline of 162.73% [1]. - The decline in revenue and profit is primarily attributed to a slowdown in project acceptance progress, although the company is expected to recover growth in the coming years as AI revenue begins to materialize [1][2]. - The company has seen a stable increase in new clients, with over 8,400 projects served and more than 4,700 clients, indicating potential for future revenue growth [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 393 million RMB, down 19.75% year-over-year but up 42.23% quarter-over-quarter. The net loss for Q2 was 21.75 million RMB, an improvement from the previous quarter [1]. - The company’s revenue from smart procurement, smart government, and digital construction was 342 million RMB, 197 million RMB, and 126 million RMB respectively, showing year-over-year declines of 4.50%, 32.71%, and 2.20% [2]. Client Growth and AI Integration - The company added 229 new projects and 129 new clients in the first half of 2025, indicating a stable client base that may convert into revenue growth in the future [3]. - AI-related product revenue reached approximately 90 million RMB, accounting for about 13% of total revenue, with government AI revenue at 25 million RMB. The company is enhancing its AI capabilities across various applications [4]. Profitability Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 has been revised down to 221 million RMB, 317 million RMB, and 344 million RMB, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.96% [5]. - The company’s estimated revenue for the digital construction business in 2025 is 314 million RMB, with a price-to-sales (PS) ratio of 6.4x, and for other businesses, the estimated net profit is 293 million RMB with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 43.6x [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [7]. Core Insights - The company emphasizes its scale, production cost advantages, and full industry chain in the PVA sector, alongside the introduction of its new Jiangsu base project [1][7]. - The company is expected to see a surge in production for PVA optical films and automotive-grade PVB films, leading to a growth phase in its performance [1][7]. Summary by Sections Production Capacity and Cost Advantages - The company holds the largest PVA production capacity in China, with a total of 310,000 tons/year across three bases, accounting for approximately 28% of the national capacity of 1.1 million tons. It employs multiple production processes to meet diverse downstream demands [2]. - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a 25% year-on-year increase in PVA sales to 125,000 tons, with revenue also rising by 25% to 1.33 billion yuan. The average selling price remained stable at 10,600 yuan/ton, and the gross margin improved by 4.8 percentage points to 25.2% [2]. New Projects and Product Launches - The company is expanding into downstream new materials, establishing an integrated supply chain from PVA to PVA optical films and PVB films. It currently has a capacity of 12 million square meters/year for PVA optical films and 22,000 tons/year for PVB films [3]. - In the first half of 2025, PVA optical film sales surged by 121% year-on-year to 4.3 million square meters, generating revenue of 49 million yuan, with a gross margin increase of 19 percentage points to 48%. The automotive-grade PVB film segment is transitioning from construction-grade to automotive-grade, with sales and revenue increasing by 60% and 77% respectively [3]. Expansion Plans - The company plans to invest 36.6 billion yuan to establish a new subsidiary in Jiangsu, with a production capacity of 400,000 tons/year for ethylene-based PVA and related products. The project is expected to take 24 months to complete [4]. - The expansion aims to increase export share, with PVA exports rising by 9.9% year-on-year to 116,000 tons in the first half of 2025, and the company capturing over 25% of the export market. The new Jiangsu base will also provide logistical advantages over the main base in Anhui [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains previous profit forecasts, estimating net profits for 2025-2027 at 610 million, 770 million, and 890 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.29, 0.36, and 0.42 yuan. The target price is set at 6.09 yuan, based on a 21x PE ratio for 2025 [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 67.80 [6][7]. Core Views - The company reported a slight improvement in pre-tax profits, with a revenue of RMB 10.304 billion for 1H25, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, but a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.169 billion, a decrease of 14.1% [1][4]. - The low-cost airline sector in China still has penetration potential, and the company is expected to maintain growth due to its efficient low-cost operating model [1][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 10.304 billion, up 4.3% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.169 billion, down 14.1% [1][4]. - For 2Q25, the revenue was RMB 4.987 billion, an increase of 6.0%, but the net profit decreased by 10.7% to RMB 4.91 billion due to the absence of tax shield benefits [1][3][4]. Capacity and Revenue - The company accelerated capacity deployment in 2Q25, with overall ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) and RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) increasing by 12.1% and 10.9% respectively [2]. - The overall passenger load factor slightly decreased by 1.0 percentage points to 90.4%, with international routes experiencing a more significant decline [2]. Cost and Profitability - The average price of aviation kerosene decreased by 17% year-on-year, leading to a reduction in fuel cost pressure [3]. - Despite a 6.9% increase in operating costs to RMB 4.425 billion, the gross profit margin fell by 0.8 percentage points to 11.3% [3]. Dividend and Buyback - The company announced a mid-term dividend of 36% and a buyback plan of RMB 300-500 million, which may enhance market confidence [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 has been revised down by 13%, 12%, and 10% to RMB 2.374 billion, RMB 3.016 billion, and RMB 3.443 billion respectively [5]. - The target price remains unchanged at a PB (Price to Book) ratio of 3.5x, with a projected BPS (Book Value per Share) of RMB 19.38 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 17.85 [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 45.51 billion for 1H25, a year-on-year decrease of 7.7%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 3.19 billion, down 43.4% year-on-year [1][5]. - The decline in profit was attributed to fair value changes, while the company continues to focus on product quality upgrades and market expansion despite current demand pressures [1][5]. - The company is well-positioned with a low valuation and high dividend yield, making it an attractive investment opportunity [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2, the company achieved revenue of RMB 25.13 billion, a decrease of 10.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of RMB 3.07 billion, down 23.0% year-on-year [1][2]. - The gross profit margin for 1H25 was 34.4%, a decline of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the expense ratio increased by 0.4 percentage points to 21.2% [4]. Brand Performance - The company's main brands faced revenue declines: - Sofia brand revenue was RMB 41.28 billion, down 7.1% year-on-year - Milan brand revenue was RMB 1.76 billion, down 26.5% year-on-year - Sim brand revenue was RMB 0.56 billion, down 21.1% year-on-year [2]. Market Strategy - The company is actively expanding its presence in the stock market and enhancing cooperation with installation companies, with 270 direct partnerships covering 211 cities [3]. - The export business has shown significant growth, with a revenue increase of 39.5% year-on-year, reaching RMB 0.34 billion in 1H25 [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards, with expected net profits of RMB 11.43 billion, RMB 12.66 billion, and RMB 13.66 billion respectively [5][10]. - The company is assigned a target PE of 15 times for 2025, leading to a target price of RMB 17.85, reflecting its competitive advantages in the market [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 26.4% year-on-year in 1H25, with a net loss of 41 million yuan, attributed to strategic adjustments in domestic operations and increased investment for long-term growth [1][2] - Despite short-term challenges, the company is optimistic about its long-term growth potential, particularly in international markets where revenue has shown some growth [1][3] - The company has made significant progress in product approvals and market expansion for its high-end products, such as the AQ-400 system, which enhances its competitive position in the high-end market [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company reported revenues of 260 million yuan and a gross margin of 62.4%, down 9.1 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to an increase in lower-margin overseas business [2] - The company’s sales, management, and R&D expense ratios increased to 38.5%, 19.3%, and 28.4% respectively, reflecting a strategic focus on core technology innovation and market competitiveness [2] Business Segments - Endoscope Equipment: Revenue was 240 million yuan in 1H25, down 29.6% year-on-year, due to a proactive adjustment in domestic business pace. The company is expanding into high-end markets and strengthening its presence in county-level markets [3] - Endoscopic Consumables: Revenue increased by 40.1% year-on-year to 9.66 million yuan, indicating strong product competitiveness [3] - Endoscope Maintenance: Revenue surged by 122.3% year-on-year to 9.33 million yuan, with expectations for rapid growth as maintenance capabilities improve [3] Product Development and Market Strategy - The AQ-400 system has received domestic approval, enhancing the company's competitive edge in the high-end market. Additionally, the company is advancing its 3D endoscope and endoscopic robot products, which are expected to provide innovative solutions for complex procedures [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts, projecting net profits of 1 million yuan, 10 million yuan, and 16 million yuan for 2025-2027, respectively. The target price is set at 60.43 yuan, reflecting an increase from the previous estimate of 55.12 yuan [5][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 10.459 billion RMB for 1H25, a year-on-year decrease of 7.5%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 0.897 billion RMB, down 20.1% year-on-year, primarily due to an unexpected impairment of 0.26 billion RMB [1][4]. - The interim dividend declared is 0.674 billion RMB, representing 80% of the net profit attributable to the parent company (excluding perpetual bond distributions), with a corresponding DPS of 7.35 HKD, reflecting a 5% increase from 1H24 [1][4]. - Capital expenditure decreased by 40% year-on-year to 0.94 billion RMB, while free cash flow significantly improved to 1.75 billion RMB [1][4]. Revenue and Profitability - The water treatment service revenue increased by 3% year-on-year to 4.52 billion RMB, with a gross margin improvement of 1 percentage point to 60% due to an increase in average water prices in China [2][3]. - The revenue from water governance construction services dropped by 57% year-on-year to 0.71 billion RMB, mainly due to the company's strategy of reducing investments in BOT projects [2][3]. Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - The company’s cash flow continues to show improvement, with an expected net inflow of operating cash flow of 1.94 billion RMB for 1H25, compared to approximately 0.25 billion RMB in 1H24 [3][4]. - The company’s light asset transformation strategy is expected to further reduce capital expenditures, with a projected decrease in future capital spending [3][4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report slightly adjusts the company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, estimating 1.52 billion RMB for 2025, reflecting a decrease of 1.3% from previous estimates [4][10]. - The target price is set at 3.15 HKD, based on a target PE of 18.9x for 2025, indicating a potential upside from the current market price [4][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 29.35 HKD [6][5]. Core Insights - The company reported strong revenue growth of 11.9% year-over-year, achieving 912 million USD in revenue for the first half of 2025, with a net profit of 95 million USD, reflecting a 54.6% increase [1][2]. - The OPE business segment showed significant performance, with a 22.8% year-over-year revenue increase, primarily driven by the rapid growth of the EGO brand [2][4]. - The company is well-positioned for long-term growth in the lithium battery OPE market, benefiting from brand strength and product ecosystem advantages, alongside an accelerated capacity expansion in Vietnam [4][5]. Revenue Performance - The company achieved 912 million USD in revenue for 25H1, with a notable contribution from the OPE business, which generated 602 million USD, up 22.8% year-over-year [1][2]. - The revenue breakdown by region for 25H1 shows North America leading with 651 million USD, a 17.9% increase, while Europe and China experienced modest growth [2]. Profitability Metrics - The gross profit margin improved by 0.4 percentage points to 33.3%, attributed to a higher proportion of high-margin EGO brand sales and reduced raw material costs [3]. - The net profit margin increased by 2.9 percentage points to 10.4%, with adjusted profit margin rising to 8.3% [3]. Long-term Growth Potential - The lithium battery OPE market is expected to see increased penetration, with the company positioned as a leading brand benefiting from the shift from traditional fuel-powered OPE [4]. - The report highlights the strong demand for electric tools in developed markets like North America and Europe, where gardening culture and high labor costs drive consumption [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 148 million USD, 174 million USD, and 201 million USD for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.29, 0.34, and 0.39 USD [5][10]. - The report assigns a target PE of 13 times for 2025, reflecting the company's growth trajectory and market conditions [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 13.41, up from a previous target of HKD 8.13 [6][5][7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 2.687 billion in 1H25, a decrease of 23% year-over-year, and a net profit of RMB 338 million, down 10.1% year-over-year, primarily due to order disruptions at the end of 2024 and confirmed impairment losses on trade receivables, although other income related to subsidies increased [1][6] - New orders signed in 1H25 reached RMB 6 billion, representing a significant increase of 89.5% year-over-year, with a backlog of RMB 10.6 billion, up 20.4% year-over-year, marking a historical high [1][6] - The report anticipates a slight increase in net profit for 2025, driven by a reduction in impairment losses and a potential significant increase in new orders [1][5] Summary by Sections Medical Device Sector - The medical device sector achieved a revenue of RMB 2.687 billion in 1H25, down 23% year-over-year, with a net profit of RMB 338 million, down 10.1% year-over-year [1] - New orders in this sector were RMB 6 billion, up 89.5% year-over-year, with a backlog of RMB 10.6 billion, up 20.4% year-over-year [1] Pharmaceutical Sector - The biopharmaceutical sector generated revenue of RMB 797 million in 1H25, an increase of 20% year-over-year, mainly due to the successful completion of orders related to the first modular factory in North Africa [2] - The report expects strong revenue growth in the second half of 2025, supported by a robust order backlog and the recovery of overseas CAPEX demand [2] Chemical and Battery Materials Sector - The battery materials sector reported revenue of RMB 404 million in 1H25, down 38% year-over-year, with a backlog of RMB 760 million and new orders of RMB 290 million [3] - The chemical sector's revenue was RMB 581 million, down 17.5% year-over-year, with a backlog of RMB 1.03 billion and new orders of RMB 130 million [3] International Expansion - The report highlights the company's ongoing international capacity expansion, including the ramp-up of production at the Nantong factory and the expansion of the Malaysian factory [4] - Plans for a new production base in Thailand are also in progress to enhance the company's global supply chain [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report projects EPS of RMB 0.61, 0.76, and 0.97 for 2025-2027, respectively, with a target price set at 20 times PE for 2025 [5][10] - The target price reflects an adjustment based on the recovery of the pharmaceutical sector's order capacity [5]