证券研究报告|宏观分析报告 2025 年 3 月 18 日 美股调整到位了吗？ 一、美元是全球跨境资本流向的锚。强美元背景下，美股大概率跑赢非美股 市；弱美元背景下，美股跑输非美股市。本轮强美元时间过长，从 18 年后 改变了美元信用的本质，使得非美经济体持续处于信用收缩状态进而希望摆 脱美元体系，所以 18 年以来美股、美元、黄金同向波动，中枢上移。同 时，过去两年全球资产对美元更为敏感，过去两年美元、美股、黄金、中债 （价格）、中证红利与银行股甚至同向波动。今年以来全球风险偏好的转向 亦是美元从 110 降至 103.5 的结果。 二、2018 年以来持续强美元加剧美股虹吸效应，全球流动性更为集中地抱团于 美股。那么，如果由《海湖庄园协议》推动美元进入长期贬值周期，不排除 2000 年美元、美股见顶回落的故事重现。那么，2000 年美股是如何见顶的？ 从三大股指见顶顺序看，2000 年 1 月 14 日更代表基本面的道指率先见顶， 3 月 10 日纳斯达克见顶，3 月 24 日标普见顶，似乎是基本面先于估值见 顶。但从三大股指表现看其实是估值先于基本面见顶，标普和纳斯达克跌幅 明显高于筑顶接近 1 年的道 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [4][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 12.022 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.77%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 2.29% to 1.031 billion yuan [1][3]. - The CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) segment continues to show robust growth, with a significant increase in project numbers, indicating a strong future growth potential [2][4]. - The report highlights that the company's short-term performance is under pressure due to changes in the business environment, particularly in the raw material and formulation sectors, but the long-term competitive strength remains intact [1][4]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 12.022 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.77% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 1.031 billion yuan, down 2.29% from the previous year [1]. - The CDMO segment generated revenue of 1.884 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.05% year-on-year, but the number of ongoing projects increased significantly [2]. - The raw material segment reported revenue of 8.651 billion yuan, with an 8.32% year-on-year growth, while the formulation segment achieved revenue of 1.256 billion yuan, growing by 0.51% [4][8]. Project and Market Dynamics - The company has a total of 1,601 quoted projects, a 77% increase year-on-year, with 996 ongoing projects, up 35% [2]. - The number of commercialized projects reached 355, reflecting a 25% increase, while the R&D phase projects grew by 42% to 641 [2]. - The API (Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient) projects also saw a 40% increase, with 22 projects already in production [2]. Valuation Metrics - The report projects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 1.129 billion yuan, 1.290 billion yuan, and 1.530 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 14%, and 19% [3][8]. - The current PE ratio is 16.9, with projections of 15.8, 13.8, and 11.6 for the following years [10].

证券研究报告 | 策略研究 2025 年 3 月 18 日 南向资金持续流入港股市场，ETF 流出规模缩窄 ——金融市场流动性与监管动态周报（0318） 上周融资资金延续净流入，ETF 流出规模缩窄，二级市场可跟踪资金净流入。 南向资金近期快速流入港股市场，在行业配置方面呈现"哑铃策略"，主要分 布在科技与红利两个方向。往后看，随着人民币升值以及经济基本面回暖，北 向资金有望进一步回流，为 A 股市场带来增量资金。 ❑南向资金主要在买什么？南向资金近年来快速流入港股市场，在港股市场扮演 的角色愈发重要。从细分行业来看，南向资金的购买行为也呈现"哑铃策略"。 春节以来，南向资金累计净流入 2499 亿港元，并且主要分布在科技（专业零 售、软件服务、生物科技与汽车）和红利（银行与其他金融）两个方向，而 对于传统的建筑、地产、能源等顺周期方向买入相对较少。 ❑货币政策与利率：上周（3/10-3/14）央行公开市场净回笼 1917 亿元，未来一 周将有 5262 亿元逆回购、3870 亿元 MLF、1200 亿元国库现金定存到期。 货币市场利率上行，短、长端国债收益率上行，同业存单发行规模扩大，发 行利率涨跌不一。截 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the real estate sector, suggesting investors consider allocating resources to this sector despite short-term uncertainties [3][7]. Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a decline in new home sales due to insufficient supply, with a focus on the timeline for further decreases in mortgage rates [1][7]. - The report indicates that new construction starts are expected to gradually decrease in the first half of 2025, influenced by the limited availability of land in high-demand cities [2][44]. - The overall investment in real estate development has shown a downward trend, reflecting the industry's contraction over the past two years, although there are signs of short-term recovery due to increased construction activity [2][44]. Summary by Sections Sales and Market Performance - In January-February 2025, the adjusted year-on-year growth rate for new home sales area was -5.1%, indicating a slight decline in market activity [15][16]. - The sales amount for the same period was 1 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year adjusted growth rate of -2.6% [9][15]. - The average price of new homes increased by 2.6% year-on-year, reflecting a slight upward trend in pricing despite overall sales declines [15][16]. Construction and Investment Trends - The new construction area for January-February 2025 saw a year-on-year adjusted decline of 29.6%, suggesting a significant reduction in new projects [2][44]. - The total investment in real estate development was 1.1 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year adjusted decrease of 9.8%, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector [9][44]. - The report anticipates a potential weak rebound in construction completion rates in early 2025, although mid-term trends may still show a downward trajectory [44]. Financial Indicators - The funding index for the real estate sector remained stable at 127%, which is historically low, but there are expectations for improvement as policies are implemented [2][7]. - The report highlights that domestic loans have shown a higher growth rate compared to new construction, indicating a shift in financing strategies among real estate companies [2][7]. - The overall funding sources for real estate development totaled 1.6 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year adjusted growth rate of -3.6%, reflecting ongoing financial pressures [9][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the company achieved revenue of 2.25 billion yuan in Q4 2024, representing an 18.3% year-over-year increase, and an adjusted EBITDA of 720 million yuan, which is a 63.8% year-over-year increase [1][3]. - The company is expected to experience a significant delivery year in 2025, with projected revenue growth of 10%-13% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 15%-18% [2][9]. - The company plans to invest 10-12 billion yuan in capital expenditures in 2025, reflecting strong confidence in future demand [2][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.25 billion yuan, exceeding consensus expectations of 2.07 billion yuan, driven by strong growth in base IDC business [3][4]. - The adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2024 was 720 million yuan, surpassing expectations and showing a significant year-over-year increase [3][4]. - For the full year 2024, the company achieved revenue of 8.26 billion yuan, which is an 11.4% increase year-over-year, also exceeding previous guidance [3][4]. Business Segments - The base IDC business achieved record revenue of 660 million yuan in Q4 2024, a 125.4% year-over-year increase, with operational capacity reaching 486 MW [4][34]. - The company secured multiple large orders in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, totaling 252.5 MW, indicating strong demand from internet and cloud computing sectors [2][4]. Future Outlook - The company plans to deliver 400-450 MW in 2025, which is expected to be 161%-194% higher than the previous year [9][43]. - The anticipated capital expenditure for 2025 is projected to be 10-12 billion yuan, a significant increase from the previous year, aimed at supporting the delivery plan [10][43]. - The report emphasizes the growing demand for high-performance IDC services, particularly driven by advancements in AI technology [39][46].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the industry, indicating that the overall upward risk outweighs the downward risk, especially with the current low positioning of the sector [1][3]. Core Insights - The industry is currently in a "corporate agony period," with signs of a bottom reversal established. The report suggests that while performance may be under pressure in the next two quarters, stock prices are expected to rebound [1][7][27]. - High-end liquor and strong regional brands are anticipated to lead the market recovery, with a particular focus on the evolution of Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu [1][7][42]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Historical Review of the Industry - The previous adjustment period from 2012 to 2015 saw stock prices decline ahead of performance, with a notable drop of 61% in the index from its peak [11][16]. - The report outlines two phases during the last cycle: the "channel agony period" and the "corporate agony period," highlighting how stock prices often lead performance by 2-3 quarters [11][20]. Section 2: Current Cycle Analysis - The current cycle has transitioned from a "channel agony period" starting in 2022 to a "corporate agony period," with inventory levels decreasing and market conditions improving [7][27]. - The report notes that the current adjustment has been less severe than the previous one, with the index experiencing a 45% decline from its peak, compared to a more rapid decline in the earlier cycle [27][30]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong market dynamics and improved strategic capabilities, such as Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu, which are expected to outperform due to their robust distribution networks and mature pricing strategies [1][7][42]. - It also highlights the potential for leading brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye to benefit from the recovery, as they have historically led rebounds in previous cycles [1][42]. Section 4: Market Performance Metrics - The report provides data on the industry scale, noting 143 listed companies with a total market value of 5,313 billion [3]. - It also includes performance metrics, indicating a 6.3% absolute performance over one month and a 37.6% performance over six months [5].

敬请阅读末页的重要说明 证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 03 月 18 日 基于财务健康指标体系的投资全解析 ——基本面量化系列研究之二 相较美股市场，A 股市场存在更为显著的 ROE 分布异象，即 ROE 处于（-2%， 0）和（0，2%）这两个区间的股票数量出现了大幅跃升。这一异常现象表明 A 股市场可能存在相对较多的财务操纵行为，部分公司通过利润调整手段将 ROE 人为提升至零以上。为了推动资本市场的健康发展并确保退市机制的规范化和 有效性，2024 年 4 月新一轮退市制度改革加强了财务操纵类退市标准。2024 年 将成为众多新规的首度生效年份，随着 2024 年度财报披露季的临近，及时对 财务操纵与财务风险进行识别显得尤为重要。本篇通过多维度、多指标的财务 风险识别框架，为投资者识别财务风险、优化投资决策提供了有效的分析工具。 风险提示：本报告结果通过历史数据统计、建模和测算完成，在政策、市场环 境发生变化时模型存在失效的风险。 任瞳 S1090519080004 rentong@cmschina.com.cn 刘凯 S1090524120001 liukai11@cmschina.com ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [13]. Core Insights - The report highlights BYD's launch of the Super e platform, which features "megawatt fast charging" technology, achieving a maximum charging power of 1MW and a charging rate of 10C, setting new global standards for electric vehicles [1][13]. - The Super e platform incorporates a 1000V high-voltage architecture and SiC power chips, resulting in a 50% reduction in current loss and a 30% improvement in charging stability [1]. - BYD plans to build over 4,000 megawatt fast charging stations, enhancing the charging infrastructure to support its electric vehicle lineup [3]. Summary by Sections Super e Platform Technology - The Super e platform enables a peak charging speed of 2 kilometers in 1 second and can charge up to 400 kilometers in just 5 minutes, making it the fastest in the global market [1]. - The platform's electric drive assembly boasts a maximum motor speed of 30,511 rpm and a power density of 16.4 kW/kg, surpassing traditional V12 engines [3]. Battery Technology - The flash charging blade battery reduces internal resistance by 50% and supports a charging current of 1000A, achieving a maximum charging power of 1MW [2]. - The battery's thermal management system improves heat dissipation efficiency by 90%, significantly enhancing safety [2]. Vehicle Models - The Han L and Tang L models, equipped with the Super e platform, achieve remarkable performance metrics, including a 0-100 km/h acceleration time of 2.7 seconds for the Han L and 3.6 seconds for the Tang L [11][13]. - Both models feature advanced autonomous driving capabilities and a high-performance intelligent cockpit, enhancing user experience [11]. Market Performance - The automotive sector has shown strong performance, with absolute returns of 9.8% over 1 month, 60.8% over 6 months, and 40.8% over 12 months [6].

证券研究报告 | 行业联合报告 2025 年 03 月 17 日 《提振消费专项行动方案》激活消费市场 消费组 3 月观点分享 研究部/消费品 ❑农业组 施 腾：消费迎政策加码，关注板块顺周期逻辑 风险提示：行业竞争加剧、地缘政治风险、消费复苏不及预期 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 1215 | 23.9 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 17018.4 | 19.2 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 15516.6 | 19.2 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 5.4 34.0 10.4 相对表现 3.7 7.2 -2.0 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Mar/24 Jul/24 Oct/24 Feb/25 (%) 消费品 沪深300 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 相关报告 1、《大消费组"消费的方向"十一 月观点 — 喜 迎 政 策 密 集 期 》 2024-12-01 2、《大消费组"消费的方向"十月 观点—政策推动基本面持续修复》 2024-10-31 3、《招商证券消费组 10 月观点分享： ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" recommendation for Dongfang Caifu (300059.SZ) [7] Core Views - The company's securities business has fully recovered, while the fund business remains under pressure. In 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 11.6 billion, up 5% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 9.6 billion, up 17% year-on-year. The revenue from Dongcai Securities was 10.8 billion, up 26%, while Tian Tian Fund's revenue was 2.85 billion, down 22% [1][2] - The company is expected to benefit from a favorable market environment, with a projected net profit of 11.2 billion, 12.4 billion, and 13.8 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 16%, 11%, and 11% [7][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 11.6 billion, a 5% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 9.6 billion, a 17% increase year-on-year. The total asset scale reached 306.4 billion, up 28% year-on-year, and the net asset attributable to shareholders was 80.7 billion, up 12% year-on-year [1][2] - The fourth quarter saw a significant increase in revenue and net profit, with total revenue of 4.3 billion, up 66% year-on-year, and net profit of 3.6 billion, up 80% year-on-year [1] Business Segments - The brokerage business showed strong performance with a net income of 5.1 billion, up 20% year-on-year, and a market share increase to 4.14% [2] - The fund business faced challenges, with total revenue of 3.1 billion, down 20% year-on-year, despite a 22% increase in fund sales volume to 1.88 trillion [3] Market Position - Dongcai Securities' margin financing market share increased to 3.10%, with a financing scale of 57.7 billion, up 27% year-on-year [2] - The company is focusing on "fixed income+" and stock index funds to align with market preferences, with a slight decrease in market share to 3.38% [3] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory in its securities business, with a projected net profit margin of 83% in 2024, up 9 percentage points year-on-year [1][7] - The report highlights the potential of the "Miaoxiang" financial model and its collaboration with DeepSeek to enhance business capabilities and drive performance growth [7]