Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [5][63]. Core Views - The company, Xiaxia Precision, is a leading domestic player in small modulus gears, primarily serving the automotive gear, power tools, and reducer markets. The humanoid robot industry is expected to drive new growth for the company's gear and reducer products [5][39]. - The company has shown stable revenue growth, with a projected revenue increase from 6.57 billion yuan in 2024 to 9.77 billion yuan in 2026, alongside a recovery in profit margins [5][63]. - The humanoid robot industry is entering a critical phase of industrialization, with significant production expectations from major players like Tesla, which could lead to a substantial increase in demand for gears and reducers [5][43]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company reported total revenue of 5.28 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected growth rate of 24% in 2024 and 23% in 2025 [5][64]. - The net profit for 2023 was 720 million yuan, with expectations of 810 million yuan in 2024 and 980 million yuan in 2025 [5][64]. - The company's PE ratio is projected to decrease from 73.5 in 2024 to 46.9 in 2026, indicating improving valuation metrics [5][63]. Business Overview - Xiaxia Precision has a market share of 1.8% in the global small modulus gear market, ranking second [5][49]. - The company has a stable ownership structure, with the controlling family holding a significant majority of shares [5][23]. - The main products include automotive gears, electric tool gears, reducers, and related equipment, with automotive gears accounting for nearly 60% of revenue [5][5][19]. Industry Trends - The gear and reducer industry is expected to benefit from the rapid growth of the humanoid robot market, with a projected CAGR of over 80% from 2025 to 2035 [5][43]. - The overall gear market in China reached 346 billion yuan in 2023, with the reducer market at 138.7 billion yuan, both showing steady growth driven by the automotive and robotics sectors [5][34].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance exceeding the benchmark index [3]. Core Insights - The social retail sales total for January-February 2025 reached 83,731 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4%. The service consumption market is showing stable growth, particularly in dining and travel services, while e-commerce is recovering faster than the overall retail market [1][2][4]. - The report highlights the impact of the "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" policy, which is expected to drive positive trends in service consumption and the retail industry [1][2]. - In terms of category performance, essential goods such as grain, oil, and food saw a year-on-year increase of 11.5%, while discretionary categories like cosmetics and clothing showed improvements with growth rates of 3.3% and 4.4%, respectively [2][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Scale - The industry comprises 132 listed companies, with a total market capitalization of 1,158 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 1,055.2 billion yuan [3]. Industry Index Performance - The absolute performance of the industry index over the past month is -10.8%, with a 6-month performance of 44.2% and a 12-month performance of 11.1%. Relative performance shows a decline of -7.9% over the past month, but a positive 35.6% over 6 months [4]. Retail Sales Breakdown - In January-February, the retail sales of essential goods grew by 11.5% for grain and oil, and 5.5% for daily necessities. The retail sales of household appliances increased by 10.9%, while the telecommunications equipment category, driven by new government subsidies for mobile phones, surged by 26.2% [2][19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy recommendation for the company [3]. Core Views - The company has shown a significant operational turnaround, with Q4 performance exceeding expectations, indicating a new growth phase [1][6]. - The wind power solutions segment is expected to benefit from rapid industry growth, while the solar and energy storage sectors have demonstrated strong competitiveness in the market [1][20]. - The large drive business is expanding, moving from domestic applications to international markets, indicating potential for substantial growth [1][20]. - New business initiatives, including data centers and innovative drive technologies, are beginning to yield results [1][36]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 3,752 million, with a slight decrease to 3,733 million in 2024, followed by a significant increase to 4,905 million in 2025, reflecting a 31% growth [2]. - Operating profit is expected to rise from 572 million in 2023 to 832 million in 2025, marking a 58% increase [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from 502 million in 2023 to 697 million in 2025, also a 58% increase [2]. - The company’s PE ratio is projected to decrease from 30.8 in 2023 to 22.2 in 2025, indicating improved valuation metrics [2]. Business Performance - The company achieved a record high in Q4 2024, with revenue of 1.42 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.1% [9]. - The renewable energy control business, the largest segment, reported revenue of 2.86 billion in 2024, despite a slight decline of 4.8% year-on-year [20]. - The large drive segment generated 562.2 million in revenue in 2024, reflecting a 16.8% increase [20]. New Business Development - The company is advancing in new business areas, including large-capacity power supplies and energy quality solutions, with products already being deployed in overseas markets [36]. - The data center segment is expected to grow rapidly, capitalizing on the global shift towards increased power demands in ICT devices [36][39]. Management and Human Resources - The company has expanded its workforce from 1,855 in 2022 to 2,486 in 2024, indicating growth in human resources to support business expansion [15]. - A significant management restructuring has occurred, introducing a younger leadership team to enhance operational vitality [43].

运动时尚增长良好，推荐接单确定性高的纺织制造龙头 纺织服装海外趋势跟踪（2025 年 3 月） 消费品/轻工纺服 海外需求稳定，品牌龙头加速预热新产品，新品风格主要集中在运动时尚和户 外，高景气度有望延续。目前制造订单分化，小而美的公司订单良好，运动品 牌需求细分化趋势或将加速演绎，重点关注接单确定性强的纺织制造龙头。 ❑ 行业景气度分析：需求稳健，品牌加速新产品预热。 1）需求端：24 年以来美国服饰及配饰店零售额同比增速保持在中低个位数 左右。库存良性；2025 年 1-2 月越南纺织品出口同比+9%；柬埔寨服装+26%。 越南鞋类+10%；柬埔寨鞋类+35%。当前需求稳健但仍需关注海外通胀情况。 2）行业趋势：2 月以来，奢侈品、户外、运动、休闲时尚领域管理层变动逐 步接近尾声，建议后续重点观察产品、渠道、营销变化；此外 2 月以来品牌 预热加速，联名款产品层出不穷，运动时尚及户外赛道高景气度有望延续。 ❑ 风险提示：国际品牌终端销售放缓风险，制造端产能拓展进度不及预期风险。 证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 03 月 17 日 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | ...

英伟达 GTC 大会即将召开，Meta 开启首款自研 AI 芯片训 练 ——全球产业趋势跟踪周报（0317） 本周的产业趋势主要在人工智能领域，英伟达 GTC 2025 大会将于美国时间 3 月 17 日至 21 日于加州圣荷西登场；据路透社报道，Meta 也正开始测试基于 RISC- V 设计的 AI 训练芯片，目前已经成功流片，并由台积电生产出首批工程样品。政 策方面，3 月 16 日，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《提振消费专项行动方 案》，方案从 8 个方面，提出 30 条促进措施，其中重要/增量信息有 6 条。此外 3 月 13 日呼和浩特印发《呼和浩特市人民政府关于促进人口集聚推动人口高质量发 展的实施意见》，其中育儿补贴标准大幅高于其他省份现有补贴情况。 ❑【中长期产业趋势关注及建议】从中长期角度，我们建议以周期为轴，供需为 证券研究报告 | 策略研究 2025 年 2 月 17 日 证券研究报告 | 策略研究 2025 年 3 月 17 日 定期报告 相关报告 1.《 全 球 首 款 通 用 智 能 体 Manus 发布，阿里巴巴加速 开源进程——全球产业趋势跟 踪周报（0310》 2.《D ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 3 月 17 日 怎么看《提振消费专项行动方案》 显微镜下的中国经济（2025 年第 10 期） 3 月 16 日，中办、国办印发《提振消费专项行动方案》，通过 30 条措施以期 进一步提振消费。 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 定期报告 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 增加收入是提振消费的根本。中国居民可支配收入分为四个部分，即工资性 收入、经营性收入、财产性收入以及转移收入。其中，工资性收入占比最 高，但近年来企业营收增幅放缓，进而导致工资性收入增速放缓，这是居民 收入形势走弱的根本原因。因此，方案明确提出要促进工资性收入合理增 长。 从去年 4 季度经验来看，居民财产性收入可以对冲工资收入下滑对可支配收 入的影响。去年 4 季度城镇居民财产性净收入同比增长 4.3%，比 3 季度回升 6.2 个百分点，金融资产价格反弹对居民收入有明显贡献，从而推动城镇居 民收入增速从 3 季度的 2.9%反弹至 4.0%。因 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from national subsidy policies and a recovery in the real estate market, leading to improved business performance [1]. - The 2024 kitchen appliance industry is projected to see double-digit growth due to national subsidies, with retail sales of range hoods and gas stoves expected to grow by 15% and 16% respectively [1]. - The company is positioned to take advantage of the extended national subsidy policies in 2025, which are anticipated to support its performance [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Data and Valuation - The company's total revenue for 2022 was 10,272 million, with a projected increase to 12,148 million in 2025, reflecting an 8% growth [6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 1,572 million in 2022 to 1,866 million in 2025, marking a 9% increase [6]. - The company's PE ratio is projected to decrease from 14.3 in 2022 to 12.1 in 2025, indicating a low valuation relative to historical levels [6]. Market Performance - The company's stock has shown a 30% increase over the past six months, outperforming the market [3]. - The report highlights a significant recovery in the real estate market, with major cities experiencing double-digit growth in housing transactions, which is expected to positively impact demand for large kitchen appliances [1]. Dividend Policy - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio from approximately 30% to over 50%, with a projected dividend of 1 yuan per share for 2024, resulting in a dividend yield of about 4.3% [1].

证券研究报告 | 宏观分析报告 2025 年 3 月 17 日 经济"开门红"成色如何？ 2025 年 1-2 月经济数据点评 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 张玉书 研究助理 zhangyushu@cmschina.com.cn 风险提示：数据测算有误差；内需恢复速度弱于预期。 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 与去年 12 月相比，2025 年 1-2 月需求侧景气度改善但生产端出现回落。 需求视角下，"抢出口"告一段落、外需逐步退坡使 1-2 月出口增速明显 回落，而消费和投资增速改善，需求侧支撑由外需转向内需的特征已初步 显现。生产视角下，1-2 月工业增加值同比增速为 5.9%（前值 6.2%）， 服务业生产指数同比增速为 5.6%（前值为 6.5%），均有所回落。 从同比来看，一季度"开门红"表现大概率不及去年同期，与我们此前的 判断一致。简单比较，1-2 月工业增加值、服务业生产指数同比增速分别 为 5.9%、5.6%，而 2024 年 1-2 月二者的增速分别为 7.0%、5.8%；1-2 月出口、社零、固定资产投资同比增速分别为 2.3 ...

证券研究报告 | 定期报告 2025 年 3 月 17 日 央国企动态系列报告之 35 ——数据赋能央企科技创新，强化央企国市值管理 发展新质生产力、推进高水平科技自立自强是 2025 年我国政府工作的重点任 务之一。近期国资委等部委聚焦央国企的主导带动作用，对央国企的科技创新 等领域做出系列部署。此外，3 月 16 日最新发布的《提振消费专项行动方案》 中，将强化央企国企控股上市公司市值管理作为城乡居民增收促进行动的具体 举措之一。 图表目录 林喜鹏 S1090522050001 linxipeng@cmschina.com.cn 罗嘉成 研究助理 luojiacheng@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 ❑ 从政府工作报告上看，在科技发展方向上，科技创新以基础研究为底座， 强化关键核心技术攻关。科技产业布局上，充分发挥新型举国体制优势。 科技成果转化上，健全市场体系和平台建设。 ❑ 国资委聚焦央国企的主导带动作用，强化链长企业强链补链作用。3 月 14 日，国资委召开国企改革深化提升行动 2025 年第一次专题推进会。2025 年作为国有企业改革深化提升行动的收官之年，原则上争取前三 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy recommendation for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [10]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth in 2024, with projected revenues of 27.62 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.06% [1]. - The intelligent driving business is highlighted as a key growth driver, with revenues expected to reach 7.31 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 63.06% [2]. - The company is actively expanding its product offerings, including the launch of a fifth-generation intelligent cockpit platform and new HUD products, which have successfully entered the supply chains of major automotive manufacturers [2][3]. - The company has established strategic partnerships with various automotive manufacturers, enhancing its market position and order book [3][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a net profit of 2.00 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.61% [1]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was reported at 19.88%, while the net profit margin stood at 7.31% [1]. - The company’s total revenue for 2024 is projected to grow to 34.80 billion yuan by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26% expected through 2027 [9]. Business Segments - The intelligent cockpit segment generated revenues of 18.23 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 15.36% increase year-on-year [1]. - The connected services and other businesses achieved revenues of 2.07 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.99% [4]. - The company is also focusing on expanding its sensor and T-Box product lines, which have received new project orders from several automotive manufacturers [3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing trend towards vehicle electrification and automation, positioning itself as a leader in the intelligent driving and cockpit domains [10]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated to be 2.85 billion yuan, 3.44 billion yuan, and 4.10 billion yuan, respectively, indicating strong growth potential [10].