证券研究报告 | 2025年08月28日 越秀地产（00123.HK） 优于大市 业绩承压，销售逆势增长 归母净利润-25%。2025 上半年公司实现营业收入 476 亿元，同比增长 34.6%； 归母净利润 14 亿元，同比下降 25.2%；核心净利润 15 亿元，同比下降 12.7%。 公司增收不增利的是由于结算毛利率约为 10.6%，同比下降 3.1pct。 销售逆势取得正增长。2025 上半年公司实现销售面积 146 万平方米，同比下 降 22%；实现销售金额 615 亿元，同比增长 11%，完成全年销售目标的 51%， 其中一线城市销售占比贡献 80.5%。上半年公司新增 13 幅土地，总建筑面积 约 148 万平方米，其中 68%位于一线城市。截至 2025 上半年末，公司总土储 2403 万平方米，其中大湾区占比 39%，一二线占比 94%，土储结构保持优质。 财务稳健，债务结构合理。公司财务水平始终保持"绿档"，截至 2025 上 半年末，公司剔除预收账款后的资产负债率为 64.6%，净负债率为 53.2%， 现金短债比为 1.7。公司融资成本继续下降，上半年平均借贷成本为 3.16%， 同比 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [1][4]. Core Views - The company achieved a stable revenue growth with a 24.1% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, totaling 49.34 billion yuan, while net profit decreased by 7.3% to 2.16 billion yuan [4][7]. - The total transaction volume reached 1.7224 trillion yuan, reflecting a 17.3% year-on-year growth [4]. - The company has expanded its share buyback program, increasing the authorization from 3 billion USD to 5 billion USD, demonstrating confidence in its future development [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company's gross margin was 21.3%, down 5.4 percentage points year-on-year, but improved by 1.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter in Q2 [7]. - The operating expense ratio decreased to 18% in H1 2025, down 3.7 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The company reported a net income of 2.16 billion yuan for H1 2025, with an adjusted net profit of 3.21 billion yuan, both showing a decline compared to the previous year [4][7]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The projected revenue for 2025 is 100.934 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.0% [6][11]. - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been adjusted down to 4.962 billion yuan, reflecting a 22.1% increase from the previous year [6][11]. - The company is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory with a projected net profit of 6.417 billion yuan by 2027 [6][11]. Business Segments Performance - The real estate brokerage segment showed a total transaction volume of 1.1638 trillion yuan in H1 2025, a 13.7% increase year-on-year, with net income of 13.59 billion yuan, up 4% [7][8]. - The home decoration and rental services segments have also shown significant growth, with rental service revenue increasing by 85.2% year-on-year [8][9]. Shareholder Returns - The company has committed to returning value to shareholders through an expanded share buyback program, which is expected to enhance shareholder confidence and support stock performance [7][8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.338 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 27.9%. The adjusted net profit reached 320 million RMB, up 9.6% year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit margin decreased by 4.0 percentage points to 23.9% [1][4]. Summary by Sections IP Commercialization and Product Structure Optimization - As of June 30, 2025, the company has commercialized 19 IPs with a total of 925 SKUs, including popular IPs like Minions and Detective Conan. The revenue contribution from the top four IP products accounted for 83.1% of total revenue, down from 92.3% in the same period of 2024. The revenue share from products for ages 16 and above increased from 10.4% to 14.8% year-on-year [2]. Domestic and Overseas Business Growth - The company's offline sales generated 1.230 billion RMB, a 26.6% increase year-on-year, making up 91.9% of total revenue. Online sales reached 108 million RMB, up 44.6% year-on-year, driven by increased sales through online channels and contributions from consumers aged 16 and above. The company has seen significant growth in overseas markets, with overseas sales reaching 111 million RMB, a staggering increase of 898.6% year-on-year [3]. Financial Performance and Profitability - The gross profit for the first half of 2025 was 647 million RMB, a 16.9% increase year-on-year, but the gross margin decreased by 4.5 percentage points to 48.4%. The increase in cost of goods sold by 34.2% and a 208.1% rise in mold depreciation due to increased mold numbers contributed to this decline. R&D expenses rose by 69.5% year-on-year, reflecting the company's commitment to enhancing its product offerings [4]. Future Revenue and Profit Projections - The company expects overall revenues for 2025-2027 to be 3.40 billion, 4.59 billion, and 6.02 billion RMB respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 51.6%, 35.1%, and 31.2%. Adjusted net profits are projected to be 780 million, 1.02 billion, and 1.30 billion RMB for the same periods [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company reported a revenue growth of 11% year-on-year in Q2 2025, primarily driven by the growth in its secondary business segments [8][12] - The adjusted net profit for Q2 2025 was 1.82 billion yuan, a decrease of 32% year-on-year but an increase of 30% quarter-on-quarter [12] - The company has slightly adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2026, expecting adjusted net profits of 6.3 billion yuan and 7.1 billion yuan respectively [83] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a total transaction value (GTV) of 878.7 billion yuan, up 5% year-on-year and 4% quarter-on-quarter, with total revenue of 26 billion yuan [8] - The adjusted net profit margin was 7.0%, down 4.5 percentage points year-on-year but up 1.0 percentage point quarter-on-quarter [12] Business Segments Performance - The existing housing business contributed a transaction value of 583.5 billion yuan, with a revenue of 6.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 8% [26] - The new housing business showed a transaction value of 255.4 billion yuan, with a revenue increase of 9% year-on-year [49] - The home decoration and furniture business generated 4.6 billion yuan in revenue, up 13% year-on-year, while the rental service revenue surged by 78% year-on-year [63] Market Position and Future Outlook - The company maintains a market share of 12.5% in the new housing sector, an increase of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year [49] - The adjusted earnings per share for 2025 and 2026 are projected to be 1.77 yuan and 2.00 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 23.9 and 21.2 [83]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 14.97 billion RMB and a net profit of 3.18 billion RMB for H1 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 15% and 8% respectively [1] - The company expects revenue growth of 10% to 15% and net profit growth in the single digits for 2025, with projected net profits of 6.56 billion RMB, 7.31 billion RMB, and 8.02 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5] Revenue and Profitability - In H1 2025, the company's gross margin was 27.1%, down from 29.0% in H1 2024, primarily due to rising labor costs [2] - The net profit margin decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 21.2% in H1 2025 [2] Customer and Sales Performance - Sales to the top four customers (Uniqlo, Nike, Adidas, PUMA) were 4.33 billion RMB, 3.44 billion RMB, 2.99 billion RMB, and 1.53 billion RMB respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 27%, 6%, 28%, and 15% [3] - The company achieved sales of 2.67 billion RMB from other customers, reflecting an 8% year-on-year increase [3] Capacity and Production - The company has increased hiring and optimized production management to enhance capacity utilization and expand overseas production [4] - New production facilities in Vietnam and Cambodia are expected to contribute significantly to capacity in the medium to long term [4] Financial Projections - The company anticipates a stable growth trajectory for revenue and comparable profit margins in 2025, with a projected revenue of 32.13 billion RMB [6] - The estimated P/E ratio for 2025 is 12.5 times, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical performance [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "OUTPERFORM" rating for Guming Holdings [2][12] Core Views - Guming Holdings reported outstanding performance in 1H, with revenue reaching RMB 5.66 billion, a year-on-year increase of 41% [3][11] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, driven by store expansion and product innovation, with projected revenues of RMB 12.4 billion, RMB 15.2 billion, and RMB 18.8 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][12] Financial Performance - In 1H, Guming's adjusted net profit was RMB 1.09 billion, up 42% year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 19.2% [3][11] - The company achieved a gross profit margin of 31.5%, remaining stable compared to previous periods [5][11] - The number of stores increased by 1,265 in 1H, bringing the total to 11,179, with a significant presence in lower-tier cities [4][11] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue sources included sales of goods and equipment (RMB 4.5 billion), franchise management services (RMB 1.16 billion), and direct store sales (RMB 0.01 billion), with respective year-on-year growth rates of 42%, 39%, and 14% [4][11] - The average daily sales per store reached approximately RMB 7,600, a 23% increase year-on-year, with an average of 439 cups sold per store daily [4][11] Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued growth in the second half of the year, driven by the expansion of delivery services and the introduction of new products, particularly in the coffee segment [5][12] - The adjusted net profit is projected to grow to RMB 2.30 billion, RMB 2.79 billion, and RMB 3.49 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a robust growth outlook [6][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company has exceeded revenue and profit growth expectations, with a total of 53,000 stores globally as of June 30, 2025 [8] - The company has strengthened its brand presence in mainland China, with a significant increase in store openings, particularly in lower-tier cities [8] - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts upwards for 2025-2027, reflecting strong operational performance and store expansion [8] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 20,302 million, with a year-on-year growth of 49.55% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is projected at 3,137 million, with a year-on-year growth of 57.13% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is estimated at 8.26, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 50.86 [1] Store Expansion and Sales Performance - As of June 30, 2025, the company has 53,000 stores, with a year-on-year increase of 23% [8] - The average sales per store have significantly improved, with product and equipment sales revenue reaching 145.0 billion, a year-on-year increase of 39.3% [8] - The company has opened 7,721 new franchise stores in the first half of 2025, exceeding its guidance [8] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 is 31.6%, with a net profit margin of 18.3%, reflecting a stable increase due to operational scale effects [8] - The company’s net profit for the first half of 2025 is 26.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 42.9% [8] Future Earnings Projections - The projected net profit for 2025 is 58.5 billion, with corresponding P/E ratios of 27 for 2025, 24 for 2026, and 22 for 2027 [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Jinmao (00817) [1] Core Views - The company has shown significant sales growth, with a 20% year-on-year increase in sales amounting to 53.3 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, outperforming the industry average decline of 18% [5] - The company is actively acquiring land, with a land acquisition amount of 49.2 billion yuan, representing a 1064% year-on-year increase, and a land acquisition/sales ratio of 92% [5] - Financing costs are continuously decreasing, with an average new financing cost of 2.7% in the first half of 2025, down by 69 basis points from the end of 2024 [5] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 72.404 billion yuan, with a decline expected in subsequent years, reaching 49.62 billion yuan in 2025 [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to recover from a loss of 6.897 billion yuan in 2023 to a profit of 738 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [4][6] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.05 yuan in 2025, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 24.2 [4][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, anticipating a price increase of over 15% within the next 6-12 months [3][11]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit first as the industry stabilizes, with future performance projected to return to a growth trajectory [3]. - The company has a strong market position, ranking second in contract sales within the industry, and maintains a significant market share in key cities [2][3]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 832.2 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 86.0 billion CNY, down 16.6% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 17.4%, a decline of 4.7 percentage points compared to the previous year, yet still above industry averages [1]. - The company achieved a contract sales amount of 1201.5 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, representing a 19% decrease year-on-year [1]. Market Position and Strategy - The company focuses on high-energy cities, with 86% of its land acquisitions in first-tier and strong second-tier cities [2]. - As of the end of July 2025, the company had acquired 22 plots of land with a total investment of 550.1 billion CNY, leading the industry in investment scale [2]. Financial Health - The company's financial structure is described as safe and robust, with key financial metrics indicating a healthy balance sheet. The asset-liability ratio, excluding advance receipts, stands at 45.7%, and the net debt ratio is 28.4% [2]. - The average financing cost for the first half of 2025 was 2.9%, which is the lowest in the industry, having decreased by 20 basis points from the end of 2024 [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 is 133.9 billion CNY, 146.2 billion CNY, and 154.7 billion CNY, with year-on-year growth rates of -14.4%, +9.2%, and +5.8% respectively [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 10.4x for 2025, 9.5x for 2026, and 9.0x for 2027 [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company has passed its earnings low point and is recovering growth while managing competition calmly [1] - Key operational metrics show a year-over-year increase in user repurchase rate by 3.4 percentage points to 64.5%, and monthly active users on the app increased by 17.5% to 13.5 million [3] - The company is actively investing in marketing resources to expand traffic due to competitive pressure affecting store profitability [3] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company achieved a revenue of 7.88 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-over-year increase of 10.5%, returning to double-digit growth [8] - Adjusted net profit for the same period was 410 million yuan, up 14.6% year-over-year, with a net profit margin of 5.2% [8] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 have been slightly adjusted down from 16.7 billion yuan to 16.4 billion yuan, while forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been raised to 19.4 billion yuan and 22.2 billion yuan respectively [3] - The company maintains a profit forecast of 630 million yuan for 2025 but has slightly lowered profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to 830 million yuan and 1.21 billion yuan respectively [3] Key Operational Metrics - The company opened 894 new stores in the first half of 2025, with over 60% of new stores located in second-tier and lower cities [3] - Self-controlled products account for nearly 70% of the product mix, with mid-to-high-end self-controlled revenue making up 27% [3] - The proportion of new energy users reached 33% [3] Valuation Metrics - The company is projected to have a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 24, 18, and 13 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3] - The price-to-earnings growth (PEG) ratio for 2025-2027 is below 1, indicating potential for high profit growth in the future [3]