Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue of 14.82 billion yuan, down 36.5% year-on-year, and a net profit of 280 million yuan, down 86.3% year-on-year [2][3] - The company's coal business faced challenges with a decrease in both sales volume and price, leading to a coal gross margin of 20.1%, down 10.4 percentage points year-on-year [2][3] - A strategic restructuring with the controlling shareholder is expected to optimize regional resource allocation and enhance pricing power in the domestic coking coal market [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.696 billion yuan, a decrease of 33.0% year-on-year, and a net profit of 22 million yuan, down 96.6% year-on-year [2][3] - The average coal price per ton was 723 yuan, down 29.9% year-on-year, while the cost per ton was 578 yuan, down 19.5% year-on-year [2][3] Production and Sales - In Q3 2025, the company produced 5.12 million tons of raw coal, a decrease of 25.3% year-on-year, but saw an increase in self-produced coal sales by 10.4% year-on-year [3] - The total coal sales volume for Q3 was 6.44 million tons, with a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 18.8% [3] Profit Forecast and Investment Strategy - The company is expected to see net profits of 446 million yuan, 495 million yuan, and 570 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.18, 0.20, and 0.23 yuan [4] - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is projected to be 47.0, 42.4, and 36.8 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][21]. Core Views - The company's feed business remains stable, and the breeding sector is recovering profitability, with a year-on-year increase of 93% in net profit attributable to the parent company for the first three quarters of 2025 [2][9]. - The revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 20.744 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.99%, driven by the expansion of breeding scale and the consolidation of the seed business [2][9]. - The breeding segment saw a significant recovery in profitability due to the rebound in pig prices and a decrease in breeding costs [3][9]. - The seed segment continues to expand, with total sales increasing by 151% year-on-year, primarily due to the consolidation of Longjing [4][21]. Summary by Sections Feed Business - The feed segment generated revenue of 13.423 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 4.67% year-on-year, with external sales of 4.0162 million tons, an increase of 2.90% year-on-year [3]. - The profitability per ton in the feed segment remains robust, with a net profit of nearly 400 million yuan, corresponding to a net profit of about 100 yuan per ton [3]. Breeding Business - The breeding segment's controlled slaughter volume increased by 25.94% year-on-year to 3.1609 million heads, generating revenue of 4.903 billion yuan [3]. - The net profit for the breeding segment is estimated to be between 300 million to 400 million yuan, with profitability per head around 100 yuan, benefiting from lower feed costs and higher pig prices [3]. Seed Business - The seed segment's total sales volume reached 20.44 million kilograms in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 151%, with total revenue of 513 million yuan, an increase of 81% [4]. - The company has a clear first-mover advantage in transgenic traits and is actively integrating high-quality targets in traditional hybrid breeding [4][21]. Financial Forecasts - The net profit forecast for 2025 has been revised down to 260 million yuan from the previous 550 million yuan, while the forecasts for 2026 and 2027 remain at 290 million yuan and 410 million yuan, respectively [21]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 0.06, 0.07, and 0.09 yuan, respectively [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 20.74 CNY, based on a projected PE of 17X for comparable companies in 2026 [3][5]. Core Insights - The company has achieved a significant increase in both sales volume and profit margins, leading to a robust profit growth outlook. In Q3 2025, the company reported a net profit of approximately 15.3 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 37.93% [10]. - The demand for special steel products is expected to grow, driven by the high-end equipment manufacturing and energy sectors, which will likely enhance the company's performance [10]. - The report highlights a favorable shift in the industry supply side and cost structure, which may further support profit growth for the company [10]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 1.16, 1.22, and 1.30 CNY, respectively, reflecting an upward revision from previous estimates [3]. - The company’s revenue is forecasted to decline slightly from 114,019 million CNY in 2023 to 107,122 million CNY in 2025, with a projected revenue growth rate of -1.9% in 2025 [4]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve from 13.1% in 2023 to 15.1% by 2027, indicating a positive trend in profitability [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Views - The company has shown steady expansion in pig production, with a significant increase in the number of pigs sold, reaching 2.9342 million heads in the first three quarters of 2025, a 50.76% increase year-on-year. However, the profitability has been under pressure due to falling pig prices, resulting in a 58.69% decline in net profit to 107 million yuan [1][8] - The company maintains a leading position in cost control within the industry, with a breeding and management strategy that has improved production metrics. The average pig sales price in Q3 2025 was approximately 13.3 yuan/kg, while the total breeding cost was close to 13.6 yuan/kg [2][3] - The gross margin has fluctuated with the pig price cycle, showing a year-on-year decrease of 7.4 percentage points to 10.44% for Q1-Q3 2025. The net profit margin also decreased by 4.72 percentage points to 2.00% [3][13] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's revenue increased by 42.57% to 5.639 billion yuan, while the net profit decreased by 58.69% to 107 million yuan. In Q3 2025, revenue was 1.922 billion yuan, up 11.57% year-on-year, but net profit fell by 124.32% to -740,000 yuan [1][8] - The company has a projected revenue growth of 10.3% for 2025, with expected revenues of 6.703 billion yuan. The net profit is forecasted to be 487 million yuan, reflecting a 6.1% decrease compared to the previous year [4][21] - The operating cash flow for Q1-Q3 2025 increased by 65.8% to 970 million yuan, accounting for 17.21% of total revenue, indicating improved asset turnover [18] Cost Management - The company has established a strategic partnership with Pipestone for pig farming consulting services, which includes site design, genetic review, and technical support, further solidifying its cost leadership position [2] - The company has reported a feed-to-meat ratio of approximately 2.58 and a pig survival rate that is above industry standards, indicating effective breeding practices [2] Future Outlook - The company aims to continue improving breeding efficiency and reducing costs while integrating quality production resources to enhance capacity utilization [3][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025 is 0.95 yuan, with projected PE ratios of 19.2 for 2025, 34.2 for 2026, and 51.8 for 2027 [21][24]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][26] Core Insights - The company achieved a record high revenue in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year revenue growth of 57.22% and a net profit margin of 32.58%. The revenue for Q3 2025 reached 1.424 billion yuan, while the net profit was 473 million yuan [2][3] - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 4.058 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 57.83%, with a net profit margin improving to 38.85% [1][3] - The company has begun large-scale shipments of DDR5 fourth-generation RCD chips and has launched several new products, indicating strong progress in product development [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 4.058 billion yuan (YoY +57.83%) and a net profit of 1.632 billion yuan (YoY +66.89%) [1] - In Q3 2025, the company recorded a revenue of 1.424 billion yuan (YoY +57.22%, QoQ +0.92%) and a net profit of 473 million yuan (YoY +22.94%, QoQ -25.33%) [2] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 63.34%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.6 percentage points [2][3] - The company has slightly adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 due to increased share-based payment expenses, projecting net profits of 2.272 billion yuan, 2.809 billion yuan, and 3.381 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][4] Product Development and Market Position - The company’s interconnect chip product line saw a revenue increase of 61.21% to 3.832 billion yuan, while the revenue from the Jindai® server platform product line grew by 17.88% to 218 million yuan [1] - The company has initiated the delivery of DDR5 second-generation MRCD/MDB chips, with orders exceeding 140 million yuan expected to be delivered in the next six months [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 4.026 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 40.19%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 399 million yuan, up 13.13% year-on-year [2] - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.453 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.34%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 183 million yuan, an increase of 8.35% year-on-year [2] - The company has a leading position in liquid cooling technology, with a comprehensive product coverage from cold plates to cooling solutions, which is expected to drive performance growth [4][5] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company experienced stable revenue growth year-on-year, with Q3 revenue at 1.453 billion yuan, a 25.34% increase year-on-year, although it saw a quarter-on-quarter decline of 11.44% due to domestic data center deployment schedules. The gross margin for Q3 was 29.40%, showing a year-on-year decline of 3.43 percentage points but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.43 percentage points [3] - The overall expense ratio for the first three quarters was 15.52%, down 3.36 percentage points year-on-year, with the sales expense ratio decreasing the most due to revenue growth [3] Inventory and Orders - As of the end of Q3, inventory stood at 1.232 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.5%, while prepayments were 26 million yuan, up 63.44% year-on-year, indicating stable orders and strong performance certainty [3] Technology and Market Position - The company has a significant advantage in the liquid cooling technology sector, with its products validated by major players like Intel and NVIDIA, which enhances its market position and growth potential in data centers and energy storage [4][5] Financial Forecast - The company is expected to maintain stable demand growth in the liquid cooling sector, with projected revenues of 5.773 billion yuan, 7.186 billion yuan, and 8.787 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 599 million yuan, 768 million yuan, and 961 million yuan for the same years [5][7]

证券研究报告 | 2025年11月02日 牧原股份（002714.SZ） 优于大市 2025 年三季报点评:养殖成本逐步下降，国际化战略稳步推进 2025Q3 养殖成本稳步下降，单头盈利保持行业领先。公司 2025Q1-Q3 营收同 比+15.52%至 1117.9 亿元,归母净利同比+41.01%至 147.79 亿元；2025Q3 营 收同比-11.48%至 353.27 亿元,归母净利同比-55.98%至 42.49 亿元，主要系 2025Q3 猪价同比明显下降。公司 2025Q3 合计销售商品猪 1892.9 万头，仔猪 328.0 万头，经测算，公司 2025Q3 商品猪销售均价约 13.6 元/kg，对应单头 商品猪盈利接近 230-240 元（剔除非经常损益影响后），处于行业领先水平。 据公司公告，2025 年以来各项生产指标持续改善，生猪养殖完全成本逐月下 降，2025 年 7 月已降至约 11.8 元/kg，同时全程成活率达 87%，断奶到上市 的成活率达 92%，肥猪日增重约 860 克，育肥阶段料肉比约 2.7。 资产负债表稳步修复，现金流创造能力表现稳健。伴随盈利能力提升与资 本开支下 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for SF Holding (002352) with a target price of 56.3 CNY, representing a 40% upside from the current price of 40.33 CNY [3][6]. Core Insights - Q3 performance is under short-term pressure, with a year-on-year revenue decline of 8.5%. The company emphasizes its "Gain Plan" to optimize its structure and enhance high-value customer ratios [6][10]. - The company reported a total revenue of 225.26 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%, with express logistics revenue at 167.32 billion CNY, up 11.7% [6][10]. - The report highlights that the company's proactive market expansion strategy and necessary long-term investments have led to short-term fluctuations in performance [6][10]. - The company has increased its share buyback program from 5-10 billion CNY to 15-30 billion CNY, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [6][10]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2024A: 284.42 billion CNY - 2025E: 312.70 billion CNY - 2026E: 351.14 billion CNY - 2027E: 392.52 billion CNY - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at 10.1%, 9.9%, 12.3%, and 11.8% respectively [6][12]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2024A: 10.17 billion CNY - 2025E: 10.83 billion CNY - 2026E: 12.48 billion CNY - 2027E: 14.52 billion CNY - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at 23.5%, 6.4%, 15.3%, and 16.3% respectively [6][12]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024A: 2.02 CNY - 2025E: 2.15 CNY - 2026E: 2.48 CNY - 2027E: 2.88 CNY [6][12]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratios are projected at 20, 19, 16, and 14 for the years 2024A to 2027E respectively [6][12]. - Price-to-Book (P/B) ratios are projected at 2.2, 2.1, 1.9, and 1.8 for the same period [6][12]. Operational Performance - The company achieved a total of 12.14 billion parcels in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 28.7%, with Q3 showing a 33.4% increase [6][10]. - The average revenue per parcel decreased by 13.3% year-on-year to 13.8 CNY for the first three quarters [6][10]. - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters was 13.0%, down 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin remained stable at 3.7% [6][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][19]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for Q3 2025, achieving a net profit of 0.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year turnaround, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 97% [2][9]. - The target price for the company's stock is set between 16.0 and 17.8 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 16% to 28% from the current price of 13.87 yuan [2][9]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 5.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.2% [9]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 16.5%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.4 percentage points [9]. - The company expects a net profit of 4.2 billion yuan in 2025, with growth rates of 174.9% and 114.0% projected for 2026 and 2027, respectively [9][10]. Business Outlook - The company is poised for profit elasticity in its seating business due to the rapid mass production of new projects, with a total sales potential of 960 to 1,006 billion yuan from 24 ongoing projects [9]. - The report highlights the successful launch of multiple new seating projects, with expectations for significant volume growth in Q4 2025 and beyond [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [6][15]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing gradual capacity growth, with the 587Ah battery model entering mass production to meet market demand [6]. - The third quarter of 2025 saw the company achieve a revenue of 1,041.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.90%, and a net profit of 185.49 billion yuan, up 41.21% year-on-year [6]. - The report highlights the strong performance across various sectors, with total battery shipments nearing 180GWh, of which approximately 20% is from energy storage [6]. - The company is accelerating its production capacity expansion, particularly in the energy storage market, driven by the rapid growth of AI data centers and the implementation of supportive domestic policies [6]. - The sodium-ion battery has received new national standard certification, positioning the company favorably for future market opportunities [6]. Financial Summary - Projected total revenue for 2024 is 362,013 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -9.7%. By 2025, revenue is expected to rise to 436,872 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 20.7% [2][7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 50,745 million yuan in 2024, increasing to 69,033 million yuan in 2025, representing a growth rate of 36.0% [2][7]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to grow from 11.12 yuan in 2024 to 15.13 yuan in 2025 [2][7]. - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 35 in 2024 to 26 in 2025, indicating improved valuation metrics [2][7]. Market Position - The company maintains a leading position in the battery industry, with a strong market share and sales volume, supported by high customer loyalty and robust supply chain resilience [6]. - The report suggests that the company's strategic focus on expanding its energy storage capabilities and advancing new battery technologies will enhance its competitive edge in the market [6].