Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 15% within the next six months [5][3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 58.2 billion (+8.6%) for the full year 2024, with a notable increase in service revenue by 18.9% to 9.4 billion, reflecting a strategic focus on expanding market share [1]. - Non-IFRS net profit reached 4.79 billion (+15.9%), with a significant increase in attributable net profit by 94.3% to 4.16 billion, showcasing strong profitability growth [1][3]. - The company is leveraging AI technology and digital tools to enhance operational efficiency, resulting in a reduction of administrative costs by 1.3 percentage points [2]. Financial Summary - The company achieved a gross profit of 13.3 billion (+12.2%) with a gross margin of 22.9% (+0.7 percentage points) in 2024 [1]. - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 66.9 billion, 76.1 billion, and 86.5 billion respectively, with attributable net profits expected to be 3.59 billion, 4.13 billion, and 4.79 billion [3][4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.12, 1.29, and 1.50 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [3][4]. User Growth and Market Position - The company has expanded its active user base to 184 million (+6.6%), with an average revenue per user (ARPU) of 317 yuan (+2.0%) [1]. - Daily online consultations have exceeded 490,000 (+8.9%), indicating a strong demand for its services [2]. - The integration of AI in healthcare services is expected to open new commercial pathways, particularly in B2B services, under the supportive policy environment for "AI + healthcare" [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market by 10% to 20% over the next six months [17]. Core Views - The company has a clear rhythm in electric vehicle production and is accelerating iterations in intelligent driving technology. The L series is set for a significant upgrade in 2025, focusing on intelligent driving hardware enhancements [11][10]. - The company is expected to launch two new electric SUV models, i8 and i6, in the second half of 2025, with a more mature market entry compared to previous models [11]. - The first quarter of 2025 is anticipated to be a low point for profitability due to a decrease in delivery volumes and increased discounts, but the second half of 2025 may exceed market expectations with the new model launches [11]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 442.7 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 16.6%, while the net profit for the same period was 35.2 billion CNY, reflecting a decline of 31.4% year-on-year [4]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 144.46 billion CNY in 2024 to 271.34 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.6% [6][14]. - Net profit is expected to recover from 80.3 billion CNY in 2024 to 232 billion CNY by 2027, indicating a significant rebound in profitability [6][14]. Key Financial Metrics - The gross margin is projected to stabilize around 21.5% by 2027, while the net margin is expected to improve to 8.6% [14]. - The return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to increase from 11.3% in 2024 to 18.9% in 2027, reflecting improved profitability and efficiency [14]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 27.6 in 2024 to 9.6 by 2027, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [14]. Delivery and Production Insights - The company reported a Q4 2024 delivery volume of 159,000 units, which was slightly below previous guidance but showed a year-on-year increase of 20.4% [9]. - The first quarter of 2025 is projected to see a significant increase in delivery volumes, with expectations of 88,000 to 93,000 units, driven by promotional strategies [11].

丨证券研究报告丨 港股研究丨公司点评丨理想汽车-W（2015.HK） [Table_Title] 理想汽车年报点评：毛利率短期受优惠政策影响 有所波动，看好后续新车周期贡献增量 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2024Q4 理想销量 15.9 万辆，同比+20.4%，环比+3.8%，实现营收 442.7 亿元，同比+6.1%， 环比+3.3%，车辆毛利率达 19.7%，同比-3.0pct，环比-1.2pct。理想汽车产品优势和品牌设计 深入人心，后续车型规划清晰，直营渠道结构持续优化，"双能战略"有望进一步扩大理想汽 车的优势，未来销量空间广阔。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 王子豪 SFC：BUW101 理想汽车-W（2015.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 理想汽车年2] 报点评：毛利率短期受优惠政策影 响有所波动，看好后续新车周期贡献增量 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 理想汽车四季度实现营收 442.7 亿元，同比+6.1%；实现归母净利润 35.2 亿元，同比-37.7%。 事件评论 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC ...

25H2 i8、i6 陆续上市，i8 上市时将建厂 2500 座超充站 证券研究报告 理想汽车-W (2015 HK) 港股通 Q4 营收攀新高，纯电+智驾双擎发 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 3 月 | 17 日│中国香港 | 乘用车 | 公司 24 年营收/归母净利 1445/80 亿，同比+17%/-32%，毛利率 20.5%； 24Q4 营收/归母净利 443/35 亿，同比+6%/-38%。24 全年归母净利超我们 此前预测 30%，系 24Q4 交付量 15.8 万辆创新高。25 年 L 智驾系列焕新及 纯电 SUV i8、i6 预计上市，VLA 模型上车，维持"买入"评级。 24Q4 营收创新高，费用控制进一步改善 24Q4 营收 443 亿元，同/环比+6%/3%。同环比增长系 Q4 交付创历史新高。 24Q4 毛利率为 20%，同/环比-3pct/-1pct，毛利率下滑系产品结构及终端政 策变化。费用端，24Q4 SG&A 费用 31 亿元，同/环比-6%/-8%，运营效率 提升。研发费用 24 亿元，同/环 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a record operating profit of 6.61 billion USD in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 12% (fixed exchange rate) / 6.3% (actual exchange rate) [4][11] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 6.84 billion USD, up 84% (fixed exchange rate) / 81.6% [4][11] - New business value increased by 18% (fixed exchange rate) / 16.8% to 4.71 billion USD, with a year-end embedded value of 69.04 billion USD, up 2.4% from the beginning of the year [4][11] - The company announced an additional share buyback plan of 1.6 billion USD, reflecting confidence in its long-term operational performance [11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported an operating profit of 6.61 billion USD, with a net profit of 6.84 billion USD, and a new business value of 4.71 billion USD [4][11] - The annual dividend per share was 1.75 HKD, an increase of 8.8% year-on-year [4] New Business Value - The new business value for 2024 was 4.71 billion USD, with quarterly growth rates of 26.9%, 14.8%, 16.8%, and 8.4% respectively [5] - The annualized new premium for 2024 was 8.61 billion USD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.5% [5] Market Contributions - The new business value from the mainland China market grew by 17.4% to 1.22 billion USD, while the Hong Kong market contributed 1.76 billion USD, up 23.4% [6][7] - The company successfully opened new branches in major cities in mainland China, enhancing its market presence [6] Distribution Channels - The agent channel saw a 15.2% increase in new business value, while the partner distribution channel grew by 26.2% [10] - The company has maintained its position as the leader in the global Million Dollar Round Table membership for ten consecutive years [14] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2026 to 8.1 billion USD and 8.8 billion USD respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 set at 9.8 billion USD [14] - The stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings value of 1.19, 1.10, and 1.03 for 2025-2027 [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% within the next six months [7][24]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 10.07 billion RMB for the fiscal year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 19.6%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.15 billion RMB, also up by 19.5%, meeting expectations [2][7]. - The company increased its dividend payout ratio to 45%, up by 4.8 percentage points year-on-year, signaling confidence in its financial health [2]. Financial Performance - The adult apparel segment generated revenues of 4.29 billion RMB and 3.09 billion RMB for footwear and apparel respectively in 2024, with growth rates of 22% and 15% year-on-year, driven by increased sales volume [4]. - The children's apparel segment saw a revenue increase of 19.5% to 2.34 billion RMB, with footwear and apparel growing by 18% and 23% respectively, indicating strong market demand [4]. - The company's gross margin improved by 0.4 percentage points to 41.5% in 2024, supported by effective cost control and pricing strategies [6]. Operational Insights - As of the end of 2024, the company operated 5,750 adult apparel stores and 2,548 children's apparel stores, with a 10% increase in sales for both segments in Q3 and Q4 [5]. - The company has introduced innovative retail formats, including 10th generation and super stores, which are expected to enhance brand image and inventory management [5]. - E-commerce revenue reached 2.61 billion RMB in 2024, growing by 12.2% year-on-year, with online exclusive products accounting for 83.6% of sales [5]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.30 billion RMB, 1.50 billion RMB, and 1.72 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 13%, 15%, and 15% [7][13]. - The current stock price corresponds to a 7x price-to-earnings ratio for 2025, reinforcing the "Buy" rating [7].

2025 年 03 月 16 日 理想汽车-W(02015.HK) 24Q4 业绩符合预期，智驾布局加速、期待纯电新品周期 事件：理想汽车发布 2024Q4 业绩，2024Q4 实现营业收入 443 亿元（符 合此前指引中枢），同比+6%、环比+3%；净利润 35 亿元，同比-39%、环比 +25%；Non-GAAP 净利润 40 亿元，同比-12%、环比+5%。全年实现营业收入 1445 亿元，同比增加 17%，实现净利润 80 亿元、同比-32%，Non-GAAP 净 利润 107 亿元、同比-13%。 营业利润再创历史新高，单车利润环比增长。 受益补贴和权益放大，Q4 交付量提升带动营收增长。 2024Q4 公司汽车业务实现营收 426 亿元，同比+6%，环比+3%。24Q4 汽车交 付量为 15.9 万辆，同比+20%，环比+4%，报告期内受益于国补地补政策以 及终端权益放大（11 月 29 日推出全系 3 年 0 息方案），交付量及汽车业务 营收实现同环比增长。 受产品结构及权益放大影响，单车 ASP、毛利率有所下滑。 2024Q4 单车 ASP 约为 26.9 万元，同比下滑 3.8 万元、环比下 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "BUY" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on expected improvements in demand and favorable policies [6][7]. Core Insights - The company forecasts a net profit for 2024 between RMB 0.5 billion and RMB 2.5 billion, a significant decrease from RMB 4.8 billion in the previous year [7]. - The report highlights a projected decline in revenue for 2024 due to weak demand, with liquid milk revenue expected to drop approximately 13% year-on-year in the first half [7]. - Despite the anticipated revenue decline, the company expects an improvement in gross margin and operating profit margin due to lower raw milk prices and efficiency measures [7]. - A substantial impairment loss is expected to impact the overall profit, primarily due to losses from the subsidiary Bellamy and the joint venture Modern Dairy, with total impairment losses estimated between RMB 3.8 billion and RMB 4 billion [7]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in dairy product demand in 2025, supported by potential local subsidy policies aimed at increasing birth rates, which could positively affect the company's milk powder business [7]. - The company expects net profits of RMB 1.2 billion, RMB 4.4 billion, and RMB 5.07 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with significant growth projected for 2025 [7][9]. Financial Summary - The company's total revenue is projected to decline from RMB 98.6 billion in 2023 to RMB 85.9 billion in 2024, before recovering to RMB 92.5 billion in 2025 and RMB 98.4 billion in 2026 [9]. - The net profit for 2024 is forecasted at RMB 0.12 billion, a sharp decline from RMB 4.8 billion in 2023, followed by a rebound to RMB 4.4 billion in 2025 and RMB 5.07 billion in 2026 [9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to drop to RMB 0.03 in 2024, with a significant recovery to RMB 1.12 in 2025 and RMB 1.30 in 2026 [9]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 542 in 2024, decreasing to 15 in 2025 and 13 in 2026, reflecting improved profitability [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6] Core Views - The company showed a slight decline in gross margin in Q4, but net profit exceeded expectations, with Q4 sales reaching 159,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 20% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4% [1] - The company is expected to launch new electric models and enhance its smart driving capabilities, which are anticipated to drive future sales growth [2] - The domestic sales channels are being optimized, and overseas expansion is accelerating, with significant progress in establishing retail centers and service centers in various regions [3] Financial Performance - Q4 revenue reached 44.27 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 6% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 3% [1] - The company forecasts Q1 deliveries between 88,000 to 93,000 vehicles, with expected revenue of 23.4 to 24.7 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 8.7% to 3.5% [1] - For the years 2025 to 2027, the company projects sales of approximately 600,000, 780,000, and 880,000 units, with total revenues reaching 159.9 billion, 202.2 billion, and 238.1 billion RMB respectively [4][5] Future Outlook - The company plans to enhance its electric vehicle offerings with the launch of the L series and MEGA models, as well as the i8 electric SUV, which is expected to be released in July [2] - The company is also preparing for extensive charging infrastructure, aiming to establish over 2,000 supercharging stations by Q1 2025, with plans to increase this number to 4,000 by the end of 2025 [2] - The report indicates that the company is making significant strides in optimizing its domestic retail presence, increasing the proportion of automotive city stores from 24% to 42% by the end of 2024 [3]

上 市 公 司 汽车 2025 年 03 月 16 日 零跑汽车 (09863) ——24 年业绩&B10 预售价双超预期 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 03 月 14 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 48.05 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8877.99 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 50.40/18.64 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 642.41 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 1,116.41 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0834 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -25% 25% 75% 125% HSCEI 零跑汽车 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 樊夏沛 A0230523080004 fanxp@swsresearch.com 研究支持 邵翼 A0230524120001 shaoyi@swsresearch.com 联系人 邵翼 (8621)23297818× shaoyi@swsresearch ...