丨证券研究报告丨 公司研究丨点评报告丨华帝股份（002035.SZ） 陈亮 SAC：S0490517070017 SFC：BUW408 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title] 换新周期与国补政策共振，业绩稳健增长 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2024 年全年公司实现营收 63.72 亿元，同比+2.23%，实现归母净利润 4.85 亿元，同比+8.39%， 实现扣非归母净利润 4.60 亿元，同比+11.66%；其中单 Q4 公司实现营收 17.96 亿元，同- 0.30%，实现归母净利润 0.81 亿元，同比-7.57%，实现扣非归母净利润 0.73 亿元，同比+9.87%； 2025 年 Q1 公司实现营收 12.60 亿元，同比-8.80%，实现归母净利润 1.06 亿元，同比-14.33%， 实现扣非归母净利 1.04 亿元，同比-14.92%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 华帝股份（002035.SZ） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 换新周期与国补政策共振，业绩 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [4][14]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, with revenue at 1.376 billion yuan, down 35.68% year-on-year, and a net profit of 11 million yuan, down 95.49% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2025 continued this trend with revenue of 163 million yuan, down 53.31% year-on-year, and a net loss of 54 million yuan [1][3]. - The integrated stove industry is under pressure due to a downturn in the real estate market, which has led to a decrease in new home renovation demand. The company is actively exploring the stock housing market and aims to establish over 200 demonstration stores for kitchen renovations by 2025 [7][8]. - Despite the challenges, the company is focusing on diversifying its product offerings, including the development of water-washing products and other kitchen appliances, to create new growth opportunities [7][8]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to have total revenue of 1.376 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -35.7%. The net profit is expected to be 11 million yuan, reflecting a -95.5% year-on-year growth rate. The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.23 yuan, with a projected increase to 0.27 yuan in 2026 and 0.34 yuan in 2027 [3][8]. - The company's gross margin for the first quarter of 2025 was 40.18%, showing a slight improvement from the previous quarter despite a year-on-year decline. The report highlights a significant increase in financial expenses due to interest costs from bond issuance [7][8]. - The company's total market capitalization is approximately 5.296 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 3.82 billion yuan. The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 475 in 2024 to 38 by 2027 [4][3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 8.124 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 34%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 19% to 334 million yuan [2][6]. - The company is recognized as a pioneer in cross-border home goods, with a strong competitive edge and ongoing improvements in brand strength and operational quality [2][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 8.124 billion yuan, with a net profit of 334 million yuan and a non-recurring net profit of 309 million yuan, reflecting year-on-year changes of +34%, -19%, and -29% respectively [2][6]. - For Q4 2024, the revenue was 2.396 billion yuan, with net profit dropping to 56 million yuan, showing year-on-year changes of +24% and -56% respectively [6]. - In Q1 2025, revenue is projected to be 2.091 billion yuan, with net profit expected to rise by 10% to 111 million yuan [2][6]. Growth Drivers - The company has shown better performance in the North American market, with a 39% year-on-year growth, and has successfully diversified its sales channels, with significant growth in new channels such as OTTO and independent sites [12]. - The company has made substantial progress in optimizing its internal operations, leading to improved growth quality [12]. Supply Chain and Market Strategy - The company is actively establishing a supply chain in Southeast Asia to mitigate tariff impacts, with 40% of shipments to the U.S. now originating from this region [12]. - The company has enhanced its logistics capabilities in Europe, reducing delivery times and increasing the proportion of self-fulfilled orders [12]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 440 million yuan, 550 million yuan, and 660 million yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 17.3, 13.8, and 11.5 times [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company with a target price of 67.32 CNY, based on expected growth in the energy storage business and new business developments [5][9]. Core Views - The energy storage business is gradually ramping up, and the company's expansion into new business areas is promising. The traditional lithium battery business is under pressure, but the energy storage segment is expected to improve profitability as it develops [5][9]. - The company achieved a total revenue of 1.699 billion CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 113.7%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was only 31 million CNY, down 91% year-on-year [9][10]. - The report highlights the company's multi-track layout, which is expected to inject new growth momentum. This includes expansion into the semiconductor industry and a strategic partnership in the robotics sector [9][10]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: The company is projected to generate total revenues of 2.430 billion CNY in 2025, 3.020 billion CNY in 2026, and 3.634 billion CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 43.0%, 24.3%, and 20.3% respectively [4][10]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise to 161 million CNY in 2025, 247 million CNY in 2026, and 321 million CNY in 2027, with growth rates of 425.9%, 52.8%, and 30.3% respectively [4][10]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS is projected to increase from 0.21 CNY in 2024 to 1.12 CNY in 2025, 1.71 CNY in 2026, and 2.23 CNY in 2027 [4][10]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 270 in 2024 to 51 in 2025, 34 in 2026, and 26 in 2027, indicating improving valuation as earnings grow [4][10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The domestic production of adiponitrile is accelerating, and the demand for civilian nylon is expected to be released, indicating a broad growth space in the future. Nylon 66, one of the most widely used nylon products, has a low application ratio in civilian yarns (13%), which could potentially replace the nylon 6 market if technological breakthroughs occur [1][12] - The company has successfully overcome significant technical barriers in adiponitrile production, making it the first project in China with independent intellectual property rights to produce adiponitrile on a large scale using the direct hydrogenation method [1][12] - The project is expected to benefit from the acceleration of domestic adiponitrile production and the increase in demand for civilian yarns [1][12] Summary by Sections Production Cost and Profitability - The estimated cost of producing adiponitrile is approximately 11,600 CNY per ton, with the main raw materials being butadiene, natural gas, and liquid ammonia [2][16] - The break-even price for the company's adiponitrile project is estimated at 17,700 CNY per ton at 150% capacity utilization and 19,000 CNY per ton at 100% capacity utilization [3][17] - The projected net profit for the company is expected to be 3.62 billion CNY at full capacity and 7.64 billion CNY after technical upgrades [3][19] Financial Projections - The company’s projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 6.4 billion, 7.3 billion, and 8.1 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.7%, 13.4%, and 11.2% [3][19] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 7.5, 6.6, and 6.0 times, respectively [3][19] Market Context - The global capacity for adiponitrile production is currently dominated by American companies, with significant reliance on imports. The domestic market is expected to shift towards local production to ensure supply chain security [1][12] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing domestic demand and the potential for market share growth in the nylon 66 sector [1][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% compared to the market benchmark within the next six months [5][22]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated impressive performance with a revenue of 3.56 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 76.3%, and a net profit of 1.43 billion yuan, up 122% year-on-year [2][5]. - The sales expense ratio has improved, decreasing by 5.9 percentage points to 39.7% in 2024, while the net profit margin increased by 8.27 percentage points to 40.2% [2][3]. - The innovative pipeline is progressing steadily, with multiple clinical trials for the drug Vomeletin ongoing, targeting various indications [4][5]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.02 billion yuan, a 52.8% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 370 million yuan, up 57% year-on-year [2]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.1 billion yuan, a 47.9% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 410 million yuan, reflecting a 34.1% growth [3]. - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 1.7 billion yuan, 2.03 billion yuan, and 2.49 billion yuan, respectively, indicating a strong growth trajectory [5]. Cost Management - The company has effectively optimized its cost structure, with a decrease in the management expense ratio to 4.6% in 2024, down 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The research and development expense ratio also saw a decline to 8.8%, down 6.7 percentage points year-on-year, indicating efficient allocation of resources [2]. Market Position and Growth Potential - The company is in a rapid growth phase with Vomeletin's market expansion and the introduction of new products, highlighting its long-term growth potential [5]. - The introduction of the KRASG12C inhibitor, Goretinib, is expected to enhance the company's product offerings and market presence [4][5].

海外产能扩建持续推进，顶棚业务成为新 增长点 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 调整收入、毛利率及费用率等，新增 2027 年预测，预测 2025-2027 年归母净利润 9.63、11.64、13.65 亿元（原 2025-2026 年为 10.60、13.21 亿元），可比公司 25 年 PE 平均估值 21 倍，目标价 12.18 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 乘用车行业销量低于预期、北美市场新能源车渗透率低于预期、乘用车遮阳板、头枕、 顶棚产品配套量低于预期、海外关税政策不确定性。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 5,861 | 6,377 | 7,387 | 8,638 | 9,875 | | 同比增长 (%) | 13.9% | 8.8% | 15.8% | 16.9% | 14.3% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 802 | 943 | 1,107 | 1,344 | 1,581 | | 同比增长 (%) | 35.7 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][10] Core Insights - The company has achieved revenue growth of 9.64% year-on-year, reaching 11.56 billion yuan, and has set a record high in operating cash flow at 855 million yuan [2] - The company is accelerating its global expansion in the smart automotive sector, with a significant increase in orders and shipments, achieving over 30% growth in overall shipments [2] - The company is focusing on "AI + industry" strategies, with notable breakthroughs in "AI + healthcare" and "AI + automotive" sectors, signing new contracts worth 678 million yuan in vertical AI applications [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 435 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.01%, meeting strategic goals [2] - The company’s revenue for the smart automotive interconnection business was 4.70% higher year-on-year, totaling 4.10 billion yuan [8] - The healthcare and social security business revenue decreased by 12.08% to 2.26 billion yuan, but future growth is anticipated [8] Business Segments - The smart city business saw a revenue increase of 49.95%, reaching 2.43 billion yuan, driven by the integration of AI and big data technologies [8] - The enterprise interconnection and other businesses generated 2.77 billion yuan in revenue, up 13.64%, benefiting from the integration of AI models and global service capabilities [8] Future Outlook - The company projects revenues of 12.85 billion yuan, 14.54 billion yuan, and 16.57 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits expected to rise significantly [10] - The company aims to deepen the integration of AI with industry scenarios and expand application areas, transitioning from a "technology provider" to a "value creator" [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The demand for commercial jet engine materials is experiencing significant growth, leading to a revaluation of the chromium salt industry chain [3] - ATI's aerospace business is showing strong growth, driven by the demand for aircraft engines, which is expected to boost performance [4][5] - The MRO (Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul) market for aircraft engines is becoming a new growth point for the industry, with strong demand anticipated [6] Financial Performance - As of May 16, 2025, the current stock price is 21.41 yuan, with a market capitalization of 10,898.20 million yuan [3] - In Q1 2025, ATI's revenue from the commercial jet engine sector grew by 33.8% year-on-year, with the HPMC department's revenue in the U.S. increasing by 31.45% [5][15] - The company expects to achieve revenues of 49.85 billion yuan, 59.54 billion yuan, and 66.63 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 7.11 billion yuan, 9.28 billion yuan, and 11.80 billion yuan [10][11] Market Trends - The MRO market is projected to grow at a rate of 40%-50%, with significant contributions from partnerships with major companies like Pratt & Whitney [6] - The global aerospace engine market is dominated by major players, with GE Aerospace and CFM International holding a combined market share of 69% [6] Production Capacity - The company anticipates an increase in chromium salt production capacity from approximately 260,000 tons to over 350,000 tons following the completion of its Chongqing base relocation and technological upgrades [11][20]

海外产能扩建持续推进，顶棚业务成为新 增长点 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 调整收入、毛利率及费用率等，新增 2027 年预测，预测 2025-2027 年归母净利润 9.63、11.64、13.65 亿元（原 2025-2026 年为 10.60、13.21 亿元），可比公司 25 年 PE 平均估值 21 倍，目标价 12.18 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示 乘用车行业销量低于预期、北美市场新能源车渗透率低于预期、乘用车遮阳板、头枕、 顶棚产品配套量低于预期、海外关税政策不确定性。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 5,861 | 6,377 | 7,387 | 8,638 | 9,875 | | 同比增长 (%) | 13.9% | 8.8% | 15.8% | 16.9% | 14.3% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 802 | 943 | 1,107 | 1,344 | 1,581 | | 同比增长 (%) | 35.7 ...