中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 美国数据反复，伊朗局势陷入不可知，如果通胀抬头，降息预期将会逆反，黄金也 | | | 多单持有 | 不例外，市场波动。昨日特朗普表示可护送游轮通过霍尔姆兹海峡。收回部分跌幅。 | | ★ | | 长期战略配置价值不变，短期关注结构性的入场时机。 | | 白银 | | 伊朗的疯狂反扑或造成重大危机，全球经济或面临衰退，白银下跌。如果伊朗危机 | | | 观望 | 结束，白银光伏、新能源汽车及 AI 等新兴领域的需求仍然较大，但是伊朗局何时收 | | ★ | | 场不可知。短期白银参与难度大，关注风险报偿比。 | | 铜 | | 美国 ADP 就业数据超预期，伊朗局势混乱，美承诺护航波斯湾，市场避险情绪稍缓， | | ★ | 多单持有 | 但地缘风险依旧，贵金属退潮有色承压，铜短期高位震荡，中长期对铜依旧看好。 | | 锌 | | 宏观多空交织，市场避险情绪走高，国内 2 月 PMI 疲软，关注两会政策，锌供需双 | | ★ | 反弹承压 | 弱，库存累库制约上行空间，建议谨慎看多，关注节后需求恢复节 ...

有机硅专家 20260303 摘要 行业达成全线提价 300 元共识，DMC 主流价升至 14,200-14,300 元， 后续采取 300-500 元/次的滚动探涨策略。 供给端由"以产代销"转向"以销定产"，2026 年无大厂新增产能， 减产执行率若达 35%将实现供需平衡。 海外产能加速退出，陶氏等外资拟关停部分装置，预计 2026 年中国有 机硅全球产能占比将从 77%升至 85%。 需求端呈"传统稳健+新兴爆发"格局，光伏胶、电子胶及机器人用液 体硅橡胶成为核心增量，传统需求占比约 70%。 成本端受甲醇价格震荡上行支撑，但工业硅因光伏链减产维持弱稳 （9,300-9,600 元），单体厂完全成本约 10,500-11,000 元。 出口退税于 4 月 1 日取消导致单吨成本增加约 1,200 元，短期刺激 3 月 订单抢跑，长期倒逼行业向高附加值产品转型。 合盛、鲁西等头部企业通过一体化、低电价或新装置能耗优势，较同行 具备 300-700 元/吨的成本领先护城河。 Q&A 宁波会议结束后，现场提价的落地情况如何？下一次会议预计在什么时间召开、 提价幅度大致如何判断？ 本次会议于 2 月 28 日 ...

相关报告 1.【华安化工】基础化工：蓝星收购 埃肯有机硅资产，我国首个生物燃油 2.【华安化工】染料产业链格局改善， 3.【华安化工】合成生物学周报：工 （1）有机硅行业盈利步入修复通道，新兴应用领域成为核心增长引 擎。2019—2024 年，国内有机硅 DMC 产能高速扩张，引发行业阶段 性产能过剩，市场价格持续下行。2025 年，行业无新增产能落地，叠 加海外产能持续出清，供给端增速正式见顶。需求侧，新能源汽车、 光伏等新兴领域需求维持高速增长态势，叠加出口量同比提升，行业 供需格局显著改善。在此背景下，行业头部企业牵头召开行业发展研 讨会，就有机硅产品达成动态定价机制与减产协议，推动行业盈利进 入修复周期。相关公司：合盛硅业、兴发集团相关公司。 [Table_StockName基Rpt础Typ化e] 工 行业周报 美国将磷列为国防关键物资，原油、TDI、染料等价格上涨 行业评级： 增持 报告日期： 2026-03-02 [T行ab业le_周Su观m点mary] 公司价格与沪深 300 走势比较 本周（2026/02/23-2026/02/27）化工板块整体涨跌幅表现排名 第 3 位，涨跌幅为 7.15% ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自己公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 华联期货工业硅、多晶硅月报 双硅盘面震荡弱势 20260301 作者：陈小国 0769-22116880 从业资格号：F03100622 交易咨询号：Z0021111 审核：黎照锋，从业资格号：F0210135,交易咨询号：Z0000088 2 行业格局 3 期现市场 4 库存 1 月度观点及热点资讯 8 进出口 5 成本利润 6 供给 7 需求 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自己公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自己公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 月度观点及热点资讯 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自己公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 u 据市场相关消息，1月31日部分多晶硅头部企业开会磋商，商讨多晶硅市场相关事宜。同时2月5日将 ...

2月27日，合盛硅业大宗交易成交4.3万股，成交额202.53万元，占当日总成交额的0.43%，成交价47.1 元，较市场收盘价51.3元折价8.19%。 | 交易日期 | | 证券代码 | 成交价(元) 成交金额[万元) 成交量(*) 买入营业部 | | | 卖出营业部 | 是否为专场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 026-02-27 | 含量硅业 | 603260 | 202.53 47.1 | 43 | 紧等候喜劈怒鸟圆 | 器制度發發現器 | 190 | ...

/ 研究所 有色板块研发报告 工业硅 3 月报 2026年2月27日 | | | | 第一部分 前言概要… | | --- | | 【供需展望】 … | | 【交易逻辑】 … | | 【策略推荐】 … | | 第二部分 基本面情况 . | | 一、行情回顾 | | 二、需求：３月工业硅需求环比增加… | | 三、供应：3 月工业硅产量主要关注龙头大厂复产 | | 四、成本及库存：成本关注煤炭，库存并不显著利空……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 9 | | 第三部分 后市展望及策略推荐 ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 11 | | 免责声明 | 第 1 页 共 12 本报告内容观点仅供参考,不作为入市依据 期货/研究所 工业硅 3 月报 有色板块研发 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [13]. Core Insights - The global chemical industry is experiencing a clear trend of "East rising, West falling," with Europe facing challenges from high energy costs, carbon constraints, and industrial relocation, while China has firmly established itself as the leader in global chemical capacity [3][10]. - From 2004 to 2024, global chemical sales are projected to grow from €1.4 trillion to €5.0 trillion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.6%, significantly outpacing the global GDP growth rate of 1.9% [7][18]. - China's share of global chemical sales is expected to increase from 10% in 2004 to 46% in 2024, while the shares of the EU, the US, Japan, South Korea, and India will be 13%, 12%, 3%, 3%, and 3%, respectively [7][18]. Summary by Sections Global Chemical Overview - China leads the global chemical industry, with capital expenditures expected to reach €127 billion in 2024, accounting for 46.6% of the global total [7][20]. - Research and development (R&D) investment in China's chemical sector is projected to reach €18 billion in 2024, representing 31.0% of the global total [25][20]. Chemical Cycle and Market Dynamics - The global chemical industry is at a historical low in capital return rates and profit margins, with many companies implementing cost-cutting and restructuring measures in anticipation of a new economic upturn [8][30]. - The shift towards specialty chemicals is noted, as these products typically have lower commoditization and higher added value, allowing companies to avoid intense competition in the commodity chemicals market [30]. Cost Disparities and EU Capacity Exit - The EU chemical industry is projected to have sales of €635 billion in 2024, but its global market share has been declining for nearly 20 years due to high energy costs and regulatory pressures [9][43]. - The EU is expected to close approximately 37 million tons of chemical capacity from 2022 to 2025, representing 9% of its total capacity, with the petrochemical sector facing the highest closure rates [9][74]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading Chinese chemical companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and others, as they are well-positioned to capitalize on the shifting dynamics of the global chemical industry [10][83].

2月26日晚间，大全能源(688303.SH)发布2025年业绩快报公告称，经初步核算，报告期公司实现营业收 入48.39亿元，同比减少34.71%; 实现归属于上市公司股东的净亏损11.29亿元，同比减亏15.89亿元，上 一年其净亏损为27.18亿元。 市场需求不足、产能利用率低是硅料环节年度巨亏的主要原因。合盛硅业曾表示，多晶硅市场在政策与 市场协同作用下逐步修复，但仍面临短期需求不足、库存较高等挑战。与2024年相比，2025年公司光伏 业务受多晶硅产线停产以及光伏组件产线产能利用率偏低等因素叠加影响，产生了较大的停工损失与运 营亏损。 在硅片和组件领域，也有巨头出现净亏损收窄。比如，隆基绿能2025年净亏损从上一年的85.92亿元收 窄至60-65亿元，双良节能净亏损从上一年的21.34亿元收窄至7.8亿元-10.6亿元。 据不完全统计，已披露2025年度业绩预报的光伏产业链各环节上市公司中，有六成企业延续业绩亏损， 有半数企业的业绩出现修复迹象。不过要实现全行业亏损刹车估计还需要较长时间。 值得注意的是，光伏行业正在迎来新的趋势。近日，全球最大多晶硅企业通威股份公告，拟通过发行股 份及支付现金的方 ...

经中国证券监督管理委员会证监许可〔2017〕1778号文核准，并经上海证券交易所同意，公司由主承销 商中信证券股份有限公司采用网下向符合条件的投资者询价配售与网上向持有上海市场非限售A股股份 市值的社会公众投资者定价发行相结合的方式，向社会公众公开发行人民币普通股(A股)股票7,000万 股，发行价为每股人民币19.52元，共计募集资金136,640.00万元，坐扣承销及保荐费后的募集资金为 129,140.00万元，已由主承销商中信证券股份有限公司于2017年10月24日汇入公司募集资金监管账户。 根据中国证券监督管理委员会《关于核准合盛硅业股份有限公司非公开发行股票的批复》(证监许可 〔2021〕508号)，公司由主承销商中信证券股份有限公司采用代销方式，向向自然人罗燚、罗烨栋非公 开发行人民币普通股(A股)股票136,165,577股，发行价为每股人民币18.36元，共计募集资金 2,499,999,993.72元，坐扣承销和保荐费用4,500,000.00元后的募集资金为2,495,499,993.72元，已由主承 销商中信证券股份有限公司于2021年6月4日汇入公司募集资金监管账户。 经中国证券监督 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is upgraded to "Overweight" [3] Core Insights - The chemical industry is expected to experience a recovery driven by both cyclical and growth factors, with a focus on organic silicon, PTA, polyester filament, caprolactam, spandex, vitamins, sweeteners, refrigerants, and phosphorus chemicals [7] - The organic silicon industry is entering a recovery phase, with new applications becoming the core growth driver. From 2019 to 2024, domestic DMC capacity expanded rapidly, leading to temporary oversupply and declining prices. However, with no new capacity expected in 2025 and increasing demand from sectors like new energy vehicles and photovoltaics, the supply-demand balance is improving [7] - The PTA and polyester filament industries are approaching a turning point, with the expansion cycle nearing its end. The demand side is expected to continue growing, supported by easing trade tensions and improved external demand [7] - The introduction of quota policies is expected to lead refrigerants into a high prosperity cycle, with supply constraints and stable demand growth from markets like heat pumps and cold chain logistics [9] - The synthetic biology sector is poised for explosive growth, driven by the transition to low-energy products and breakthroughs in non-grain bio-based materials [9] - OLED technology is accelerating its penetration into various display sizes, supported by policy measures aimed at fostering the new display industry [10] - The demand for high-frequency and low-loss electronic resins is increasing due to the rise of AI infrastructure, with AI server shipments expected to grow significantly [11] - The electronic chemicals sector is benefiting from the expansion of wafer production capacity, with increasing demand for key materials like photoresists and packaging materials [12] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The chemical sector's overall performance ranked 14th with a weekly change of 0.78%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.38 percentage points [6][21] - Key stocks such as Honghe Technology and Zhongcai Technology saw significant price increases due to rising demand in AI servers and high-speed network equipment [6] Supply-Side Tracking - A total of 155 companies in the chemical industry had their production capacities affected, with 4 new repairs and 7 restarts reported [14] Key Industry Dynamics - BlueStar announced the acquisition of Elkem's core organic silicon assets, marking a strategic move to enhance its position in the global organic silicon industry [34] - The first biofuel blending policy in China was approved, allowing for local blending and reducing reliance on imports [34]