Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1][12] Core Insights - Overall industry sales performance slightly exceeded expectations; liquor met expectations while the restaurant chain outperformed [4] - The food and beverage sector showed strong sales during the Spring Festival, with a positive outlook for post-holiday inventory replenishment [7] Summary by Category - **Liquor**: Overall performance met expectations, with a projected decline in single to double digits. Notable performances from Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, while real estate liquor brands like Yingjia Gongjiu and Jinhui Jiu performed better [4] - **Snacks**: Maintained good sales during the Spring Festival, with double-digit growth expected. High-end gift boxes performed well, although high-priced gift boxes showed weaker sales. Positive feedback from bulk snack channels [4] - **Restaurant Chain**: B-end performance of condiments exceeded pre-holiday expectations, with overall sales expected to grow by double digits. Leading frozen food company Anjijia performed exceptionally well [4] - **Dairy Products**: Sales during the Spring Festival showed recovery, with liquid milk returning to positive growth and significant improvements in freshness, while price competition has eased [5] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the restaurant chain, followed by snacks and certain liquor brands. Recommended liquor stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Yingjia Gongjiu, and Jinhui Jiu. For consumer goods, recommended stocks include Anjijia, Angel Yeast, Yihai International, Weidong, and Wancheng Group [7]

证券研究报告·行业点评报告 2026 年 2 月 24 日 江海证券研究发展部 社会服务行业 春节期间出行和餐饮链表现相对突出 事件： 投资要点： 江海证券有限公司及其关联机构在法律许可的情况下可能与本报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在影响本报告客观性的 利益冲突，不应视本报告为投资决策的唯一因素。 敬请参阅最后一页之免责条款 消费行业研究组 分析师：张婧 执业证书编号：S1410525010001 业：冰雪经济迎来快速增长期 – 2025.09.23 5. 江海证券-行业点评报告-商业零售：离 境退税"即买即退"利好百货和出行链 – 2025.04.14 ◆商务大数据显示，假期前四天，全国重点零售和餐饮企业日均销售额较 2025 年 假期前四天增长 8.6%。假期前三天，商务部重点监测的 78 个步行街（商圈） 客流量、营业额比去年假期前三天（下同）分别增长 4.5%和 4.8%。 ◆商品消费方面，以旧换新持续释放消费需求，智能产品需求旺盛。截至 2 月 18 日，2026 年消费品以旧换新惠及 2843.9 万人次，带动销售额 1963.9 亿元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The traditional business model of the liquor industry, particularly in the high-end white liquor segment, is failing, leading to a collapse of the pricing system and the emergence of new business models and consumer behaviors driven by the Z generation [3][4][14]. Industry Overview - In 2025, the Chinese consumer market is undergoing profound changes, with high-end liquor prices, such as those of Moutai, continuously declining, raising questions about their investment and stockpiling attributes [3][4][14]. - The Z generation (born between 1995 and 2009) has become the main consumer force, reshaping market rules and consumer preferences [3][4][14]. Pricing and Sales Performance - The prices of major white liquor products have significantly dropped, with Moutai's wholesale price falling from over 2200 yuan per bottle at the beginning of the year to below 1500 yuan by December 2025 [5][16]. - The overall performance of white liquor companies has deteriorated, with 20 A-share listed companies reporting a combined revenue of 317.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.90%, and a net profit drop of 6.93% [5][17]. Corporate Strategies and Changes - Many liquor companies are experiencing frequent personnel changes, with over ten major companies, including Moutai and Yanghe, adjusting their core leadership positions in 2025 [6][18]. - Companies are exploring new business models and channels, such as switching from a "payment before delivery" to a "delivery before payment" model [8][20]. New Business Models - Moutai has announced a restructuring of its product system and pricing strategy, moving towards a direct sales model through its app, aiming to connect directly with consumers [9][20]. - The rise of "health liquor" has been notable, with a growth rate of 66%, indicating a shift in consumer preferences towards healthier options [10][21].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4117.41 points, up 0.87%, while the liquor sector saw a slight increase of 0.27% to 2223.20 points, despite 14 liquor stocks declining [2] - Major liquor stocks such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, and Yanghe all experienced price drops, with Kweichow Moutai closing at 1466.80 CNY per share, down 1.25% [2] Group 2 - Guosheng Securities reported a robust recovery in the 2026 Spring Festival season, highlighting structural repair and significant downward pressure on leading brands, with "Moutai and Wuliangye" sales exceeding expectations and showing year-on-year growth [3] - The demand landscape indicates a recovery in high-end gifting and casual drinking, while business banquets and group purchases remain under pressure; high-end and real estate liquor are the main sales drivers, with mid-range liquor sales slowing [3] - The supply side shows liquor companies exploring diversified business models and innovative marketing strategies for the Spring Festival, increasingly embracing social media and focusing on "ready-to-drink" and "instant" consumption scenarios [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the white liquor industry has experienced a significant sales decline of nearly 20% since early 2026, with a more severe drop of 20%-25% when excluding Moutai [1][2] - The average price of white liquor products, excluding Moutai, has decreased by 10% year-on-year, while sales volume has dropped by 15%, indicating that volume is a major drag on overall performance [2][3] - The industry is currently in a passive destocking phase, with some brands showing accelerated inventory reduction in Q1 2026, but reaching the inventory bottom will take time due to the absence of business and government consumption scenarios [1][3] Group 2 - The white liquor sector is undergoing a transformation where family and daily consumption is becoming more rigid, and companies are shifting their focus from scale to channel profitability [3] - The market is expected to confirm the bottom of white liquor performance with the Q1 2026 reports, suggesting that the negative impact of performance downgrades on stock prices will diminish by 2026 [4] - The investment recommendation includes top companies like Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai, and Wuliangye, as well as regional leaders and flexible stocks, indicating a shift towards companies with strong market positions [5]

行业点评（R3）- 无重点股票 食品饮料 白酒表现分化，大众品价稳量升 食品饮料行业春节跟踪点评 投资要点： 2026 年 02 月 24 日 评级 领先大市 评级变动： 维持 行业涨跌幅比较 30% 食品饮料 沪深300 % 1M 3M 12M 食品饮料 3.28 -3.44 -3.56 沪深 300 -0.90 4.64 17.14 黄静 分析师 -10% 0% 10% 20% 2025-02 2025-05 2025-08 2025-11 | 执业证书编号:S0530524020001 | | | --- | --- | | huangjing48@hnchasing.com | | | 胡跃才 | 分析师 | | 执业证书编号:S0530525070001 | | | huyuecai@hnchasing.com | | 证券研究报告 投资建议：考虑食品饮料板块低预期、低估值、低持仓的特征，以 及板块呈现企稳改善的态势，我们维持板块"领先大市"的评级。 白酒方面，建议关注品牌力强、量价策略改善的龙头企业；大众品 方面，建议关注β企稳、α持续释放的速冻食品龙头；竞争格局稳 固，价盘有望边际改善的乳品龙头 ...

今日（2.24），大消费板块冲高回落，盘初一度涨超1%，规模领先的消费ETF（159928）转跌0.64%，盘中成交额已超3.6亿元！资金再度青睐，盘中获2400 万份净申购。最新规模超223亿元，同类持续领先！ 消息面上，春节出行强度提升，春节假期前6日全社会累计跨区域人员流动量增速较春运返乡阶段进一步上行。消费迎来开门红，商品消费需求旺盛、服务 消费活力满满。旅游市场热度高涨，"分段式过年"普及，主题上"南下避寒、北上冰雪"双线并行，出入境旅游双向增长。春节档电影方面，票房明显走弱。 政策面上，高层杂志发表重要文章《当前经济工作的重点任务》；我国将对53个非洲建交国全面实施零关税举措；加大农村地区企业上市辅导培育力度，帮 助更多企业利用多层次资本市场进行融资；三部门发布重要五年规划期间支持科技创新进口税收优惠政策。 东吴证券指出，历史上A股"春节效应"特征显著，节后资金有望"重振旗鼓"带动量价共振修复，A股有望迎来积极开局。春节休市期间全球股市多数上涨， 全球风险偏好较优。流动性层面，美降息路径虽存变数，但市场对全年流动性预期未显著恶化；离岸人民币汇率假期运行平稳。内需方面，动能稳步修复。 产业趋势层面， ...

国金证券指出，基于节后渠道调研反馈，春节白酒动销整体符合节前市场预期，预计全渠道动销量同比 下滑约10%-15%。其中，略超预期的反馈在于：1.节前&节内飞天茅台批价表现相对不错、未有显性回 落，当前原箱批价仍在1700元以上；2.部分区域节内大众价位产品有零星终端补货行为，当然这也与近 年来终端小批量、高频次进货习惯相关，目的是规避资金占用和存货跌价风险，但仍反映一定的动销韧 性。 智通财经APP获悉，珍酒李渡(06979)涨近4%，截至发稿，涨3.94%，报8.97港元，成交额3824.86万港 元。 消息面上，华创证券发布研报称，春节期间，茅台飞天动销双位数增长，五粮液量价均超预期，春节旺 季效应在龙头品牌上集中体现。当前白酒处于预期和持仓底部。26年全年看，酒企从被动应对进入主动 调整，机会在于茅台批价回落并企稳之后，预期筑底企稳，越往年中越明朗。 ...

与高端市场的火热形成呼应的是大众价格带的繁荣。走访时，北京商报记者发现，泸州老窖六年窖龄 酒、海之蓝等300元以下白酒产品也成为消费者追捧的热销产品。方庄附近的烟酒店店员表示："春节期 间高端白酒产品销量亮眼的同时，大众酒销量也在稳步提升。家庭自饮场景下消费者多选择大众酒，进 一步推动了该价格带动销提升，这与我们年前的预判一致。" 随着9天"加长版"假期落下帷幕，白酒旺季消费也逐渐告一段落。今年春节期间，白酒消费市场呈现出 清晰的"哑铃型"分化结构。2月24日，北京商报记者走访北京部分终端市场并结合春节期间调研发现， 高端酒与大众酒两端需求升温，次高端价位却陷入"冰河期"，这一格局的形成，是消费场景深度重构的 集中体现。如今，当春节旺季的喧嚣散去，白酒行业如何在接下来的消费淡季中"弯道超车"，成为所有 从业者必须直面的课题。 高端与大众的"崛起" 在白酒传统消费周期中，春节假期既将行业消费旺季推向小高潮，也预示着淡季的到来。在2026年春节 期间，白酒消费在旺季小高潮中，呈现出明显的分化发展。这种分化不再是简单的品牌此消彼长，而是 沿着价格带形成了清晰的断层。 北京商报记者走访终端发现，春节期间，茅台、五粮液 ...

Core Insights - The overall demand for the liquor market has declined compared to previous years, but the high-end liquor market prices have stabilized, driven by Moutai [2][5] - Many institutions are optimistic about a rebound in the liquor industry in the second half of 2026, despite current market caution from liquor merchants [2][5] Group 1: Market Trends - The 2026 Spring Festival liquor market is expected to be the "coldest" in history, with a psychological expectation of this among industry players [3] - There is a noticeable shift in consumption habits, with fewer people attending gatherings and a decrease in the number of tables at banquets [3] - Sales of liquor are reported to have declined by 10% to 20% across multiple provinces during the 2026 Spring Festival [3] Group 2: Price Stability - High-end liquor prices, particularly for Moutai, have stabilized, with the wholesale price of Moutai around 1700 yuan per bottle, up approximately 150 yuan from the end of 2025 [5] - Other premium brands like Wuliangye and Fenjiu have also shown price stability, indicating a potential recovery in consumer sentiment [5][6] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The market is experiencing a "two extremes hot, middle cold" situation, where products priced between 100-200 yuan and above 800 yuan are performing well, while mid-range products face pressure [6] - The core products of leading liquor companies are selling well, but the profit margins for these products are limited, indicating a complex market situation [6] - The stabilization of high-end liquor prices is seen as a signal of industry bottoming out, but further recovery depends on the restoration of business dining and overall economic support for high-end consumption [6]