证券研究报告 | 2025年12月23日 滔搏（06110.HK） 三季度流水下滑高单位数，折扣同比加深幅度收窄 |  | 公司研究·海外公司快评 |  | 纺织服饰·服装家纺 |  投资评级：优于大市（维持） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 丁诗洁 | 0755-81981391 | dingshijie@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980520040004 | | 证券分析师： | 刘佳琪 | 010-88005446 | liujiaqi@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980523070003 | 事项： 公司公告：2026 财年第三季度，集团零售及批发业务之总销售金额按年同比录得高单位数下降。截至 2025 年 11 月 30 日，直营门店毛销售面积较上一季末减少 1.3%，较去年同期减少 13.4%。 国信纺服观点：1)流水增长：2026 财年第三季度销售额同比下滑高单位数，线上渠道增速仍好于线下渠道， 但受基数影响，分化较上半年收窄；2）库存折扣：三季度末库存总额同比下降，与销售表现方向一致， 保持良 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Consumer Sector Outlook**: The consumer sector is expected to face challenges in the first half of 2026 due to the tapering of the trade-in policy, which may lead to a slowdown in durable goods consumption. However, service consumption is showing strong internal momentum, with growth expected in sectors like elderly care and home services, which may receive more policy support [1][4][5]. Key Points and Arguments - **Consumer Data Trends**: In November 2025, retail sales growth fell to 1.3%, the lowest of the year, primarily due to the early Double Eleven promotions, the impact of the trade-in policy, and weakened consumer confidence due to falling housing prices [2][3]. - **Trade-in Policy Impact**: The decline in the trade-in policy is anticipated to negatively affect consumer spending in early 2026, particularly in durable goods like home appliances and automobiles, which are expected to see continued low growth [3][21]. - **Service Consumption Growth**: Service retail growth has increased from 4.9% at the beginning of the year to 5.4%, with significant contributions from education and dining sectors [4]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Focus on the AI industry and emerging sectors like pet economy and trendy toys. Real estate is expected to recover by 2026-2027, benefiting related industries [1][6][7]. Important but Overlooked Content - **High-End Consumption and Travel Chain**: The service sector in 2026 will focus on high-end consumption and travel, with recommendations for companies in the duty-free, hotel, aviation, and dining sectors, such as China Duty Free Group and hotel chains like Jin Jiang and Huazhu [7]. - **Overseas Expansion Opportunities**: Companies like Anker Innovations and Huakai 100 are recommended for their potential in overseas markets, despite current low stock prices [9][10]. - **Alcohol and Beverage Sector**: The alcohol sector is currently in a low season, but some brands are seeing price recovery due to channel control measures. The soft drink market is also expected to show potential growth despite current sales being slow [11][12][13]. - **Food and Beverage Trends**: The snack sector is seeing positive demand ahead of the Spring Festival, with health-oriented products like konjac and oats showing significant growth. Companies like Wancheng and Yanjinpuzi are highlighted for investment [12]. - **Investment in New Consumption Areas**: The new consumption sector is showing upward trends, particularly in the vaping and AI glasses markets, with companies like Smoore and Kangnai Optical recommended for their growth potential [16]. Conclusion - The consumer sector is navigating a complex landscape with both challenges and opportunities. The focus on service consumption, emerging sectors, and strategic investments in high-potential companies will be crucial for navigating the anticipated economic conditions in 2026.

Group 1: Market Trends - The new materials sector saw an increase, with the new materials index rising by 0.66%, underperforming the ChiNext index by 2.08% [6] - The performance of various sub-sectors included a 6.21% increase in semiconductor materials and a 7.05% increase in electronic chemicals, while biodegradable plastics decreased by 0.57% [6] - The prices of key materials showed mixed trends, with amino acids like valine increasing by 3.57% to 13,050 CNY/ton, while arginine decreased by 1.87% to 20,950 CNY/ton [6] Group 2: Industry Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized a comprehensive green transition, suggesting a focus on upstream raw materials for wind power [6] - The wind power sector is expected to maintain a high prosperity pattern, with annual new installed capacity projected to be no less than 120 million kilowatts during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [6] - The industry is shifting from simple scale expansion to simultaneous improvement in quality and efficiency, which is expected to enhance overall profitability [6] Group 3: Company Analysis - Enjie Co., Ltd. (002812.SZ) - Enjie Co., Ltd. is acquiring 100% of Zhongke Hualian's shares to strengthen its leading position, with the acquisition price set at 34.38 CNY/share [10] - The acquisition will allow Enjie to reduce costs by utilizing domestic membrane production technology, which has previously been dominated by foreign companies [10] - The lithium battery separator market is expected to see a recovery in prices after a prolonged decline, with recent data indicating a month-on-month price increase for various separator products [10]

Macro and Strategy - The macroeconomic review indicates a moderate slowdown in domestic economic growth, with November GDP growth estimated at 4.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from October, suggesting a low probability of significant rebound in December [9][10] - The service sector is identified as the main drag on economic growth, with a notable decline in the production index, particularly in traditional industries like finance and real estate, while emerging sectors show resilience [10] - The shift in policy focus from growth preservation to structural adjustment is highlighted, indicating a transition towards high-quality development [10] Fixed Income - The fixed income market is experiencing seasonal increases in cross-year funding demand, with expectations of rising market interest rates in December [11] - The report notes a slight fluctuation in interbank and exchange repo rates, with a forecasted increase in excess deposit reserve ratios for November and December [11] - The convertible bond market is showing signs of recovery, with a notable increase in the average price and a decrease in the average premium rate [13][14] Industry and Company Insights - The internet securities industry is transitioning from a traditional service model to a customer-centric ecosystem, which is expected to drive innovation and growth [15][17] - The insurance asset-liability management framework is moving towards a more comprehensive regulatory system, emphasizing long-term value and risk prevention [18][19] - The food and beverage sector is projected to benefit from cost advantages and efficiency improvements, with a focus on innovation and recovery opportunities [26][28] - The electric power equipment and new energy sector is witnessing significant developments, particularly with the first large-scale green methanol project in China, indicating a market potential exceeding 10 billion annually [30][31] - Nike's performance shows regional disparities, with North America recovering faster than the Greater China region, which faces significant pressure due to competitive pricing and brand positioning challenges [32][33] - Wanhua Chemical is experiencing a rebound in MDI product prices, driven by production cuts and increased demand from the US housing market due to interest rate cuts [34][36]

行业研究·行业快评 纺织服饰 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师： 丁诗洁 0755-81981391 dingshijie@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980520040004 证券分析师： 刘佳琪 010-88005446 liujiaqi@guosen.com.cn 执证编码：S0980523070003 事项： 公司公告：2025年12月18日，耐克披露截至2025年11月30日的2026财年第二季度业绩：公司实现收入124 亿美元，同比+1%，不变汇率口径0%。 国信纺服观点：1）业绩和指引核心观点：FY2026Q2 业绩略好于管理层此前指引和彭博一致预期、各区 域和渠道恢复速度有差异、大中华区压力较大，Q3 指引不及彭博一致预期，管理层表示公司处于恢复 的中期阶段；2）FY2026Q2 业绩：收入整体好于管理层指引及彭博一致预期，北美地区及批发渠道引领 增长，鞋类收入降幅收窄、跑鞋引领增长、经典鞋款拖累，中国市场和 Converse 品牌持续承压，毛利 率下降幅度与管理层指引一致；3）分地区：北美表现强劲，大中华区压力显著，各地区批发渠道增长 普遍优于直营，北美、大中华区、亚太拉 ...

Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The US stock market saw a collective rise on December 19, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.38% to 48,134.89 points, the S&P 500 up 0.88% to 6,834.5 points, and the Nasdaq up 1.31% to 23,307.62 points [1] - European indices also experienced slight gains, with the German DAX up 0.39% to 24,293.56 points, the French CAC40 up 0.01% to 8,151.38 points, and the UK FTSE 100 up 0.61% to 9,897.42 points [1] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 0.86%, with notable individual stock performances including Pony.ai up nearly 12% and Hesai Technology up over 7% [1] Group 2: AI Sector Developments - Oracle's stock rose over 6% following the announcement of a joint venture with TikTok, which includes Oracle, Silver Lake, and MGX [3] - Nvidia's stock increased by approximately 4%, amid reports of the Trump administration reviewing the company's export of advanced AI chips to China [3] - CoreWeave's stock surged over 22%, while other AI-related companies like AMD and Broadcom also saw gains [4] Group 3: Other Notable Company Movements - Nike's stock fell over 10% after the company projected a decline in sales [5] - Morgan Stanley is expected to lead the underwriting for SpaceX's IPO, leveraging its long-standing relationship with CEO Elon Musk [6][7][8] Group 4: Commodity Market Insights - Gold futures rose by 0.1% to $4,368.7 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 0.9%, while silver futures increased by 3.34% to $67.395 per ounce, marking an 8.55% weekly rise [10] - Oil prices also saw a rebound, with West Texas Intermediate crude up 0.96% to $56.54 per barrel and Brent crude up 1.01% to $60.1 per barrel [10]

AI产业链股票反弹。 周五（12月19日），欧美股市集体收涨。美股方面，三大股指全线收涨，道琼斯工业指数涨0.38%报48134.89点，标普 500指数涨0.88%报6834.5点，纳斯达克指数涨1.31%报23307.62点。本周，道琼斯工业指数跌0.67%，标普500指数涨 0.1%，纳斯达克指数涨0.48%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯工业平均 | 48134.89d | 183.04 | 0.38% | 13.14% | | 纳斯达克指数 | 23307.62d | 301.26 | 1.31% | 20.70% | | 标普500 | 6834.50 | 59.74 | 0.88% | 16.20% | 欧洲三大股指收盘小幅上涨，德国DAX指数涨0.39%报24293.56点，法国CAC40指数涨0.01%报8151.38点，英国富时 100指数涨0.61%报9897.42点。本周，德国DAX指数涨0.44%，法国CAC40指数涨1.03%，英国富时100指数涨2.57%。 | 名称 | 现 ...

AI 产业链股票反弹 。 AI产业链股票反弹 欧洲三大股指收盘小幅上涨，德国DAX指数涨0.39%报24293.56点，法国CAC40指数涨0.01%报8151.38点，英国富时100指数涨0.61%报9897.42点。本周，德国 DAX指数涨0.44%，法国CAC40指数涨1.03%，英国富时100指数涨2.57%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 英国富时100 | 9897.42 | 59.65 | 0.61% | 21.10% | | 法国CAC40 | 8151.38c | 0.74 | 0.01% | 10.44% | | 德国DAX | 24293.56c | 94.06 | 0.39% | 22.00% | 中概股多数上涨，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨0.86%。个股方面，小马智行涨近12%，禾赛科技涨超7%，小鹏汽车涨近7%，再鼎医药、理想汽车涨逾5%；BOSS直 聘、好未来跌超2%，满帮集团跌近2%，爱奇艺跌超1%。 美东时间周五，在甲骨文和英伟达走强的带动下，美股人工智能（AI）概念股重新站稳脚跟。 ...

*耐克暴跌拖累消费板块 *美光科技创收盘新高 *"三巫聚首日"放大波动 美国股市周五收高，科技股反弹成为推动大盘走强的主要力量，盖过了耐克等消费类个股大幅下跌的影 响。当天正值"三巫聚首日"，股票期权、股指期货和股指期权集中到期，加大了盘中波动。 截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数上涨0.38%至48134.89点；标普500指数上涨0.88%至6834.50点；纳斯达克综 合指数上涨1.31%至23307.62点。 【热门股表现】 科技股延续前一交易日的反弹势头。芯片制造商美光科技在发布强劲财测后继续走高，周五大涨7%， 创下收盘纪录新高。 大型科技股表现分化。英伟达上涨3.93%，谷歌A股上涨1.55%，苹果上涨0.54%，微软上涨0.40%，亚 马逊上涨0.26%；特斯拉下跌0.45%，Meta下跌0.85%。 甲骨文上涨6.63%。第一财经此前报道，当地时间12月18日，TikTok CEO周受资发出内部信，更新 TikTok美国业务进展。内部信称字节跳动、TikTok已与三家投资者签署协议，并将成立新的TikTok美国 合资公司。这三家企业包括，甲骨文公司、银湖及MGX。 博通上涨3.18%，AMD大涨6.1 ...

北京时间12月20日凌晨，美股周五午盘维持涨势，科技股领涨。受甲骨文公司的交易消息提振，AI板 块在近期波动后试图重拾升势。"四巫聚首日"金融市场波动可能加剧。 道指涨270.57点，涨幅为0.56%，报48222.42点；纳指涨244.19点，涨幅为1.06%，报23250.55点；标普 500指数涨54.88点，涨幅为0.81%，报6829.64点。 周五是所谓的"四巫聚首日（quadruple witching）"，即美国的股票指数期货、股票指数期权、个股期权 和个股期货合约同时到期的日子，这种情况通常会导致金融市场波动加剧。 据高盛称，本周五将有超过7.1万亿美元名义价值的期权风险敞口到期，使其成为有记录以来最大的期 权到期日。 软件巨头甲骨文股价大涨，此前TikTok同意将其美国业务售予由甲骨文和私募股权投资机构银湖资本等 成立的新合资企业。 根据一份内部备忘录，TikTok的母公司字节跳动已与甲骨文、银湖资本和总部位于阿布扎比的MGX签 署具有约束力的协议，将成立一家名为"TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC"的合资公司。 甲骨文股价上涨并扭转了近期颓势。在媒体爆料称该公司失 ...