日度报告——综合晨报 北约宣布 2035 年前增加军费开支 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-06-26 宏观策略（国债期货） 国务院副总理：我国经济顶住压力保持向好态势 股票上涨很可能是下半年债市面临的一个风险，但股市走强对 于债市的影响是偏短期的。多头可继续持有，关注逢回调买入 策略。 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 北约宣布 2035 年前增加军费开支 综 特朗普准备提前任命美联储主席，这会对于市场产生明显的影 响，市场预计降息速度会有所上升，美元短期走弱。 合 宏观策略（股指期货） 晨 国泰君安国际获批可提供虚拟资产交易服务 报 国泰君安国际获批可提供虚拟资产交易服务，带动金融板块大 幅拉升，沪指创年内新高。市场成交大幅放量。高估值下市场 情绪依然火热。 农产品（棉花） 欧盟服装进口：4 月份增速明显下降 对中国进口疲软 据棉花信息网公布的数据显示，处于纺织淡季的 6 月上半月，国 内棉花的商业库存继续快速去化，这在一定程度上增强了市场 对年度后期陈作供应偏紧的担忧。 有色金属（铜） ICSG：4 月全球铜市供应短缺 3.8 万吨 宏观因素短期对铜价仍相对偏支撑，基本面供需两弱对盘面影 ...

4. 项目估算总投资：479,336万元，全部为企业投资。 2025年6月23日，公司控股子公司西藏玉龙铜业股份有限公司（以下简称"玉 龙铜业"）收到西藏自治区发展和改革委员会出具的《西藏自治区发展和改革委 员会关于西藏玉龙铜业股份有限公司玉龙铜矿三期工程项目核准的批复》（藏发 改产业〔2025〕362号），为贯彻落实国务院关于保障战略矿产资源安全的工作 部署，促进资源优势向经济发展优势转化，核准玉龙铜矿三期工程项目，铜矿生 产规模由1989万吨/年增加至3000万吨/年。 一、批复主要内容 1. 项目单位：玉龙铜业。 2. 项目建设地点：昌都市江达县青泥洞乡。 证券代码：601168 证券简称：西部矿业 公告编号：临 2025-034 西部矿业股份有限公司 3. 项目建设规模和主要内容：该项目为改扩建矿山项目，生产规模由1989 万吨/年增加至3000万吨/年。项目开采方式为露天开采，项目产品方案为铜精矿、 钼精矿、电铜。建设内容包括新建1100万吨/年选矿厂，湿法冶炼规模由30万吨/ 年增加至100万吨/年，配套建设色公弄沟尾矿库、150兆瓦源网荷储一体化供电 设施等生产辅助设施，三期工程建成后，玉龙铜矿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The approval of the Yulong Copper Mine Phase III project is a significant development for Western Mining, with an investment of 4.793 billion yuan aimed at increasing copper production capacity [1] Group 1: Project Approval and Investment - Western Mining's subsidiary, Tibet Yulong Copper Co., Ltd., received approval from the Tibet Autonomous Region Development and Reform Commission for the Yulong Copper Mine Phase III project [1] - The total investment for the project is 4.793 billion yuan [1] - The project will increase the copper production scale from 19.89 million tons per year to 30 million tons per year [1] Group 2: Project Details and Expected Outcomes - The construction includes a new 11 million tons per year concentrator and an increase in hydrometallurgical smelting capacity from 300,000 tons per year to 1 million tons per year [1] - Upon completion, the expected copper metal output will reach 180,000 to 200,000 tons per year [1] - The overall copper mining capacity of the company will further increase with the completion of this project [1] Group 3: Additional Considerations - The project still requires approvals from other relevant departments [1] - There are potential risks associated with the harsh natural geographical environment that may affect project construction [1]

Core Viewpoint - Western Mining (601168) announced that its subsidiary Yulong Copper Industry has received approval from the Tibet Autonomous Region Development and Reform Commission for the Yulong Copper Mine Phase III project, which will significantly increase production capacity and enhance profitability [1] Group 1: Project Approval and Investment - The Yulong Copper Mine Phase III project is an expansion project that will increase the production scale from 19.89 million tons per year to 30 million tons per year [1] - The estimated total investment for the project is 4.793 billion yuan, fully funded by the company [1] Group 2: Production Capacity and Resources - Upon completion of the Phase III project, the Yulong Copper Mine's ore processing capacity will reach 30 million tons per year, with a mine service life of 23 years [1] - In 2024, the Yulong Copper Mine is expected to produce 159,000 tons of copper, with a total ore resource of 830 million tons and an average copper grade of 0.6% [1] - The project is anticipated to yield 180,000 to 200,000 tons of copper metal per year, further enhancing the company's profitability [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for copper is bullish [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The shortage at the raw material end continues, with limited cold material supplements, leading to a significant downward adjustment of the marginal growth of global copper mine production in 2025 to 280,000 - 380,000 metric tons. The pressure at the raw material end will further reduce processing fees and impact downstream industries. - The processing profit of the smelting industry continues to deteriorate, with an initial risk of industry - wide losses. The scope of active production cuts overseas is expanding, and the market is focusing on domestic smelting trends. The marginal growth of global refined copper production in 2025 is expected to be 500,000 - 600,000 metric tons. - The marginal growth of traditional demand is weakening, the new - energy demand is slowing down, while the demand from emerging industries is growing strongly. The marginal growth of global copper demand in 2025 is adjusted down to 700,000 - 800,000 metric tons. - Macro factors center around the weakening of the US dollar, and policies from various countries are expected to stimulate the economy. The fundamentals are in a stalemate, with greater potential for supply constraints. In a low - inventory state, the regional balance needs time to recover. It is recommended to focus on structural market trends, with the low point of copper prices in the second half of the year unlikely to break through 74,000 yuan/ton, and the high point may exceed 83,000 yuan/ton [2][3][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Raw Material End 3.1.1 Copper Concentrate - In Chile, the copper supply is in a recovery cycle. From January to April, the cumulative copper production increased by 3.5% year - on - year to 1.752 million metric tons, with an absolute increase of 59,000 metric tons. The government expects a 3% increase in production in 2025 to 5.672 million metric tons, but there are uncertainties. Large - scale projects like Escondida have significant production increases, while some mines like Collahuasi and Anglo American Sur have lower - than - normal production [19][21] - In Peru, the copper mine is in a restorative growth period. From January to April, the cumulative copper production increased by 4.9% year - on - year to 887,000 metric tons, with an absolute increase of about 41,000 metric tons. The government expects the annual production to be around 2.8 million metric tons. Some projects have production differentiations, and the government's policies to stimulate production have limited effects for now [29][31] - In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the copper production was in a high - growth period but has faced challenges this year. Geopolitical issues, infrastructure weaknesses, and resource nationalism have affected production. The output of the Kamoa - Kakula project has been significantly reduced, and the production forecast for 2025 has been greatly lowered [34][35][36] - In China, copper production has been in a recovery phase since 2022 but is constrained by factors such as ore grade decline and aging mines. The marginal growth of global copper mine production in 2025 is estimated to be 250,000 - 350,000 metric tons, with different trends in different regions [37][40] - From a company perspective, the production of major mining companies in 2024 increased by 3.3% to 17.05 million metric tons. In 2025, the growth is expected to be 2.1% to 17.41 million metric tons, mainly due to disruptions in African mines [42][43] - Regarding new projects, the marginal contribution of new global copper mines before 2028 is decreasing. Policy instability and external environment changes are the main risks for project delays or cancellations [46] 3.1.2 Recycled Materials - Overseas, due to the shortage of copper concentrate, smelters are relying more on cold materials. European smelters are competing for scrap copper, and India is increasing scrap copper imports. The US has new scrap - copper - based processing enterprises, and its scrap copper export ratio is expected to decline [50][52] - In China, smelters' demand for cold materials has increased, but supply has been restricted. From January to May, scrap copper imports decreased by nearly 2% year - on - year to 962,000 physical tons, mainly due to tariff policies and overseas demand. Domestic scrap copper supply is also constrained by fiscal and tax policies and profit margins. The supply of anode copper has also decreased [55][59] 3.1.3 Conclusions and Thoughts - The marginal growth of global copper mine production in 2024 was 530,000 - 550,000 metric tons, and it is adjusted down to 280,000 - 380,000 metric tons in 2025. The copper raw material gap in China is expected to widen in 2025, and copper prices can regulate cold material supply. Attention should be paid to domestic and overseas policies [62][63] 3.2 Smelting End 3.2.1 Domestic Market - The shortage of copper concentrate has led to a decline in processing fees. If the long - term processing fee is set at a low level, Chinese smelters may face industry - wide losses. Sulfuric acid price increases have provided some support, but there are uncertainties. The planned production increase of major listed smelters in 2025 is to 8.5 million tons, but raw material shortages may limit production. The marginal growth of China's refined copper production in 2025 is expected to be 600,000 - 700,000 metric tons [70][77][83] 3.2.2 Overseas Market - In Chile, the decline in refined copper production is significant, with an expected 10% decrease in 2025. Similar situations exist in Mexico. Overseas smelters are showing a trend of production cuts, mainly due to raw material constraints and processing fee decreases. The risk of a decline in overseas refined copper production in 2025 is increasing [86][91][92] 3.2.3 Conclusions and Thoughts - The marginal growth of global refined copper production in 2024 was 650,000 - 700,000 metric tons, and it is expected to be 500,000 - 600,000 metric tons in 2025. The transfer of the raw material shortage to smelters takes time. Attention should be paid to the impact of sulfuric acid prices and cold materials on smelters [94][95] 3.3 Demand End 3.3.1 Macro Level - From an economic cycle perspective, the global economy is in a transition from "recession" to "recovery," with different economic situations in different countries. The US economy shows signs of stagflation, and the Fed's monetary policy shift is uncertain. The US dollar's credit cycle is weakening, and copper's financial attributes are expected to increase [97] - From a manufacturing cycle perspective, the global manufacturing PMI is around 50, and the recovery will be more differentiated. Tariff policies are the core external factor affecting manufacturing [102] - In the long - term, the US fiscal deficit is expected to expand, and the US dollar will continue to depreciate. Copper will play a more important role in resource currency, and investment in copper will provide support [102] 3.3.2 Traditional Demand: China - In the power industry, grid investment is expected to grow steadily, with a focus on UHV projects and distribution network upgrades. Power source investment growth is slowing down, but there may be new drivers in 2026. Overseas exports of electrical equipment have been strong, but are affected by external policies [106][112][115] - In the home appliance industry, domestic air - conditioner sales and production increased in the first four months of 2025. Domestic sales may decline in the third quarter, while overseas sales are relatively strong but face risks from tariff policies. High inventory levels may limit production [117][119] - In the real estate industry, policies are being strengthened, but the industry is still in a bottom - building phase and will drag down copper demand this year, with a possible return to positive demand in 2026 - 2027 [120][121] - In the transportation industry, domestic automobile production is growing strongly, with new - energy vehicles as the main growth driver. However, it is affected by policy subsidies and consumer income expectations. China's automobile exports are facing bottlenecks [122][124] - The marginal growth of China's traditional copper demand in 2024 was 255,000 - 475,000 metric tons, and it is adjusted down to 132,000 - 392,000 metric tons in 2025, with risks in the second half of the year [132] 3.3.3 Traditional Demand: Overseas - In the US, policies have increased inflation expectations and economic uncertainties. The real estate and durable - goods consumption markets show a downward trend but not a significant decline. The US government's policies on power infrastructure and renewable energy will drive copper demand growth [133][136][137]

Summary of the Conference Call for Western Mining Industry and Company Overview - The conference call pertains to Western Mining, specifically focusing on the copper and lithium mining sectors, including the Yulong Mine and its upcoming projects [2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Yulong Mine Phase III Project**: - Expected to commence construction in the second half of this year and reach production by the end of next year [2][3]. - Projected ore processing capacity will reach 30 million tons, with copper-gold output estimated at 180,000 to 200,000 tons by 2027 [2][3]. - Total investment for the project is approximately 5 billion yuan, with 2 billion yuan allocated for tailings pond construction [3]. - **Copper Production Forecast**: - Copper production is expected to remain stable at around 170,000 tons for this year and next [2][4]. - After the completion of the Phase III project, total copper metal capacity is anticipated to approach 370,000 tons by 2028 [2][5]. - **Cost Structure**: - The cost for the Phase III project is expected to stabilize at approximately 31,000 yuan per ton [2][6]. - **Smelting Business Performance**: - The main smelting products include copper, lead, and zinc, with no long-term procurement agreements in place [2][8]. - Currently facing losses at a price of -43 USD, indicating a struggle to break even [2][8]. - **By-products and Sales**: - The company plans to produce 6 tons of gold and 430 tons of silver this year, with a clearer profit outlook expected after the second quarter sales [2][9]. - **Wild Horse Battery Processing Fees**: - Processing fees for copper, zinc, and lead are reported at 4,800 yuan/ton, 3,800-4,000 yuan/ton, and 1,000-1,100 yuan/ton respectively [2][10]. - Improvement in processing fees is expected to help reduce losses in the smelting segment, with more noticeable effects in the second quarter [2][10]. - **Lithium Mining Operations**: - The company holds a stake in Dongtai Lithium Mine, which has a production capacity of 12,000 to 15,000 tons of lithium carbonate annually, contributing approximately 160 million yuan in profit [2][13]. - The cost of production at Dongtai Lithium Mine is stable at 34,000 to 35,000 yuan per ton, with a profit margin of over 10,000 yuan per ton based on current market prices [2][13]. - **Expansion Plans for Dongtai Lithium Mine**: - The company is urging Dongtai Lithium Mine to accelerate its expansion plans, which are expected to progress quickly due to resolved infrastructure issues [2][14]. - **Shareholder Returns and Dividend Policy**: - The company has established a shareholder return plan with a minimum average dividend payout ratio of 30% over the next three years [2][15]. Additional Important Information - The smelting business is currently not utilizing scrap copper, with a total capacity of 350,000 tons split between two production units [2][12]. - The overall copper processing industry has seen some shutdowns this year, which has contributed to a recovery in processing fees [2][11].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the short-term liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market may face tightening, influenced by geopolitical tensions and uncertainties in US-China relations, leading to a potential volatile market [2] - Long-term prospects for the Hong Kong stock market remain positive due to strong overall profitability and the scarcity of assets in sectors like internet, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, suggesting a favorable long-term investment value [2] Market Data Summary - The domestic new fund market is experiencing a surge with 50 new funds launched, primarily equity mixed funds, while the net value of equity funds has collectively declined [3] - Notably, the net inflow into stock ETFs reached 14.669 billion yuan, with a focus on small-cap and sci-tech boards, while large-cap ETFs saw net outflows [3] Industry Research Summary Automotive Industry - The commercialization of Robotaxi is accelerating, with a significant growth inflection point expected in 2025, driven by advancements in reinforcement learning and large models [4] - Recommended companies include Tesla for L4 pure vision Robotaxi and suppliers like Nidec for steer-by-wire systems, along with Xpeng Motors and a focus on Li Auto and NIO [4] High-end Manufacturing - Optimus robots are set for major improvements, with a positive outlook on humanoid robotics and specific attention to high-complexity dexterous hands and rolling screw technology [5] - The engineering machinery sector is facing short-term domestic pressure but maintains a growth trend in exports, with recommended companies including Zoomlion and SANY Heavy Industry [5] Non-ferrous Metals - Domestic air conditioning sales increased by 2.3% in May, while production fell by 1.8%, indicating potential demand weakness [6] - The report suggests that copper prices may stabilize in the short term but are expected to rise gradually with domestic stimulus policies and potential US interest rate cuts [6] Basic Chemicals - The report highlights the long-term value of leading companies in the chemical industry, with recommendations for major players in oil and gas, low-valuation chemical leaders, and new materials sectors [8] - Specific companies to watch include Wanhua Chemical and China Petroleum [8] Pharmaceutical Industry - The acceleration of innovative drug reviews is expected to enhance the value of quality pipelines and improve market sentiment towards the innovative drug sector [9] - Key companies to focus on include Hansoh Pharmaceutical and BeiGene, which are positioned for rapid development and internationalization [9] Steel Industry - The report notes a decline in the domestic alumina capacity utilization rate to a new low for 2023, with expectations for steel sector profitability to recover to historical averages [10] - The revised steel industry standards are anticipated to support this recovery [10]

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "stronger than the market" rating [7] Core Views - Precious Metals: The repeated changes in US tariff policies do not alter the long-term allocation value of gold. Recent economic data from the US shows a weakening trend, increasing market concerns about the economic outlook. This weak economic data will provide a basis for the Federal Reserve's future interest rate cuts. According to a survey by the World Gold Council, 76% of 73 global central banks expect to continue increasing their gold holdings over the next five years to diversify away from dollar assets, highlighting the central banks' willingness to purchase gold amid geopolitical factors and declining dollar credit. In the short term, potential risks and uncertainties from "reciprocal tariffs" support market risk aversion, leading to a price increase for gold, which is expected to show an overall pattern of easy rise and difficult fall. In the medium to long term, the core of gold trading remains risk aversion and stagflation trading under the uncertainty of global tariff policies and geopolitical factors, maintaining its long-term allocation value [3][12][13] - Industrial Metals: The supply-demand tightness remains unchanged, making it generally easy to rise and difficult to fall. For copper, the short-term expectation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts continues, and the tight supply-demand pattern supports copper prices. In the medium to long term, as the Federal Reserve deepens interest rate cuts, it will boost investment and consumption, while opening up domestic monetary policy space. Additionally, the potential inflation rebound from the subsequent wide fiscal policies of the Trump administration will support the upward movement of copper price levels. Strong demand from the new energy sector will further widen the supply-demand gap, continuing to favor copper prices [4][14][15] - New Energy Metals: The extension of the cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo may boost cobalt prices. The lithium market faces a dual weakness in supply and demand, with limited support from lithium salt plant repairs and production cuts. In the medium to long term, lithium mines are considered the most quality and elastic targets in the electric vehicle supply chain, suggesting strategic stock layout opportunities. Recommended stocks include Salt Lake Co., Cangge Mining, Yongxing Materials, and Zhongkuang Resources, with elastic attention to Jiangte Electric, Tianqi Lithium, and Ganfeng Lithium [4][19] - Other Minor Metals: The prices of rare earths remain stable. The tightening of spot supply and the slight reduction in the operating rate of separation plants due to cost and raw material supply issues have led to a relatively firm pricing environment. Demand is steadily increasing, with major magnetic material manufacturers continuing to procure, indicating that the demand remains, although the cautious purchasing attitude affects the overall order stability [5][20][23] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The long-term allocation value of gold remains unchanged despite US tariff policy fluctuations [3][12][13] - Recommended stocks include Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Gold, with attention to Hunan Gold and Zhaojin Mining [3][12][13] Industrial Metals - The supply-demand tightness continues, supporting copper prices in the short term and medium to long term [4][14][15] - Recommended stocks include Luoyang Molybdenum, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, and West Mining [4][14][15] New Energy Metals - The cobalt export ban extension may lead to price increases [4][19] - Recommended stocks include Salt Lake Co., Cangge Mining, and Yongxing Materials [4][19] Other Minor Metals - Rare earth prices are stable, with demand increasing [5][20][23] - Recommended stocks include Hunan Gold, Huaxi Youshi, and Zhongjin Gold [5][20][23]

Group 1: Overview of Events - The "2025 Investor Reception Day and 2024 Annual Performance Briefing" was held in Qinghai, focusing on enhancing compliance and investor relations among listed companies [1][4] - The event included a training session for directors and senior executives of listed companies, emphasizing compliance and governance [1][5] Group 2: Financial Performance of Listed Companies - In 2024, ten listed companies in Qinghai achieved a total revenue of 103.69 billion yuan and a net profit of 10.49 billion yuan, with total dividends amounting to 2.85 billion yuan [1] - Qinghai Mutual Tianyoude Qinjiao Wine Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 1.26 billion yuan, net profit of 42.17 million yuan, and dividends exceeding 50% of its net profit [2] - Western Mining Co., Ltd. achieved a record revenue of 50.03 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.93 billion yuan in 2024, with a dividend payout of 10 yuan per 10 shares [3] Group 3: Investor Engagement and Training - The event facilitated real-time communication between listed companies and investors, with 516 questions raised and an 80.62% response rate [4] - Training sessions covered regulatory updates and compliance requirements, focusing on asset restructuring and information disclosure [4][5] Group 4: Regulatory and Development Initiatives - The Qinghai Securities Regulatory Bureau emphasized the importance of enhancing management capabilities and protecting investor interests as part of the new "National Nine Articles" [5][6] - Future initiatives will focus on improving asset quality and operational performance through market management and mergers and acquisitions [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the 中证500质量成长指数 (CSI 500 Quality Growth Index) has shown mixed performance among its constituent stocks, with some stocks gaining while others declined, indicating a volatile market environment [1] - As of June 20, 2025, the CSI 500 Quality Growth Index decreased by 0.36%, while the CSI 500 Quality Growth ETF (560500) fell by 0.10%, reflecting a slight downturn in the market [1] - The top-performing stocks included 常熟银行 (Changshu Bank) with a gain of 1.73%, and 齐鲁银行 (Qilu Bank) with an increase of 1.69%, while 柏楚电子 (Bachu Electronics) led the decline with a drop of 5.76% [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead to the second half of 2025, 中原证券 (Zhongyuan Securities) anticipates that the core driving factors for the equity market will include ongoing policy support focused on technological innovation and domestic demand [2] - The report suggests that the liquidity environment is improving due to a loose domestic monetary policy and increasing capital repurchases, which is expected to enhance market liquidity [2] - As of May 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 500 Quality Growth Index accounted for 23.79% of the index, with 赤峰黄金 (Chifeng Gold) being the highest at 3.13% [2][4]