【炼油板块】周前期，特朗普计划同伊朗对话，重启核谈判，地缘风险降温，叠加哈萨克斯坦油田及美 国原油产量逐渐恢复，供应压力回升，国际油价大幅下跌。周中期，美国击落一架伊朗无人机，伊朗武 装快艇逼近悬挂美国国旗的油轮，有媒体报道称原定的美伊谈判取消，地缘风险溢价迅速回归，叠加美 印达成贸易协议，有望提振需求，国际油价宽幅反弹。周后期，美国与伊朗同意周五举行核谈判，缓解 了市场对伊朗供应中断的担忧，地缘风险溢价回落，油价有所回落。2026年2月6日布伦特、WTI原油价 格分别为68.05、63.55美元/桶，较2026年1月30日分别-2.64、-1.66美元/桶。成品油方面，本周国内外成 品油价格价差偏震荡运行。 【化工板块】本周成本端支撑有限，化工品价格偏震荡运行，部分产品短期供给影响，价格有所上行。 聚烯烃方面，本周聚烯烃价格价差小幅震荡。EVA价格偏稳运行，价差小幅改善。纯苯产品价格价差小 幅上涨。苯乙烯华东码头本周期内到货有限，产品价格价差继续上涨。丙烯腈场内装置降负与检修情况 延续，局部供应偏紧，产品价格价差继续上行。聚碳酸酯产品价格稳中有涨。MMA产品价格偏稳运 行，价差小幅改善。 【聚酯&锦纶板块】 ...

Group 1: Refining Sector - Domestic refined oil prices for gasoline and diesel have increased this week [1][2] - In the US, gasoline prices have also risen this week [2] Group 2: PX Market - The average price of PX this week is $895.6 per ton, down $26.4 per ton from the previous week, with a price difference from crude oil of $404.1 per ton, down $23.5 per ton [1][2] - PX operating rate stands at 89.9%, unchanged from the previous week [1][2] Group 3: Key Refining Projects - The price difference for key domestic refining projects this week is 2403 CNY per ton, up 38 CNY per ton (2% increase) from the previous week [1] - The price difference for key foreign refining projects this week is 1104 CNY per ton, up 7 CNY per ton (1% increase) from the previous week [1] Group 4: Polyester Sector - The average prices for POY, FDY, and DTY are 7071, 7279, and 8179 CNY per ton respectively, with increases of 171, 136, and 114 CNY per ton from the previous week [1] - Weekly profits for POY, FDY, and DTY are 208, 80, and 80 CNY per ton respectively, with increases of 275, 251, and 237 CNY per ton from the previous week [1] - Inventory days for POY, FDY, and DTY are 12.7, 15.8, and 19.4 days respectively, with changes of -1.3, +0.1, and -0.6 days from the previous week [1] - The operating rate for long filament is 83.5%, down 2.2 percentage points from the previous week [1] Group 5: Weaving Sector - The operating rate for weaving machines is 42.4%, down 8.8 percentage points from the previous week [1] - Raw material inventory for weaving enterprises is 8.7 days, up 0.1 days from the previous week [1] - Finished goods inventory for weaving enterprises is 26.0 days, down 2.7 days from the previous week [1]

Group 1 - The polyester industry is experiencing a collaborative production cut that is driving price spread recovery, with the price spread between polyester filament and polyester bottle chips reaching new highs in six months and two years, while PTA is nearing breakeven [1] - The dye industry is witnessing a replenishment wave due to low inventory levels, with disperse dyes expected to rise by another 10% before the holiday, and the price of the brilliant blue dye led by Zhejiang Longsheng has surged to 180,000 yuan/ton, indicating strong price support expectations in the industry [1] - Local two sessions have identified high energy-consuming industries as key targets for carbon emission transformation, with green development policies continuing to strengthen supply-side constraints in the chemical industry [1] Group 2 - The electronic gas industry is characterized by a high degree of foreign monopoly, with four major international giants, including Linde Group and Air Liquide, holding over 70% of the global market share, indicating a deep technological moat [1] - The supply of electronic bulk gases exhibits a 15-year long-cycle binding characteristic, resulting in strong customer stickiness, while the specialty gas sector faces high technical barriers (purity requirements of 5N-6N) and a wide variety of products (over 110 types), leading downstream customers to adopt multi-source supply strategies [1] - The expansion of semiconductor demand is expected to accelerate the domestic substitution process, although significant barriers and technological stratification exist within the industry [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that domestic and international refining projects are experiencing price changes, with domestic projects showing a price difference of 2403 CNY/ton, up by 38 CNY/ton (2% increase) compared to the previous week [2] - In the polyester sector, the average prices for POY, FDY, and DTY are 7071, 7279, and 8179 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week increases of 171, 136, and 114 CNY/ton [2] - The average profit for POY, FDY, and DTY is reported at 208, 80, and 80 CNY/ton respectively, with significant week-on-week increases of 275, 251, and 237 CNY/ton [2] Group 2 - The PX average price this week is 895.6 USD/ton, down by 26.4 USD/ton from the previous week, with a price difference from crude oil of 404.1 USD/ton, which is a decrease of 23.5 USD/ton [2] - The PX operating rate stands at 89.9%, showing no change from the previous week [2] - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices have risen this week, as have gasoline prices in the United States [2] Group 3 - Relevant listed companies in the private refining and polyester filament sector include Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Dongfang Shenghong, Hengyi Petrochemical, Tongkun Co., and Xin Fengming [3]

Market Overview - As of February 6, 2026, the China Petroleum Industry Index (H11057) rose by 2.00%, with key stocks such as Zhejiang Longsheng up 6.18%, Hengyi Petrochemical up 5.01%, and Rongsheng Petrochemical up 4.93% [1] - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) increased by 1.82%, with a latest price of 1.0 yuan and a turnover rate of 10.86% during the trading session [1] - The Petrochemical ETF attracted a total of 1.447 billion yuan in inflows over the past 20 trading days [1] Key News - The previous trading day saw fuel oil prices fluctuate upwards, closing above the moving average. In the Singapore fuel oil spot market, PetroChina and BP purchased three ships of 20,000 tons each of 380cst high-sulfur fuel oil from Sinopec, Shell, and Canon for loading between February 19-23 [2] - The PVC main contract fell by 2.18%, with spot prices decreasing by 40-50 yuan/ton. The price trend and inventory depletion speed depend on the recovery of demand post-Spring Festival. If downstream projects like infrastructure can effectively start, inventory pressure may gradually ease [2] - As of the end of January 2026, domestic PVC social inventory was 1.2064 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.45% and a year-on-year increase of 60.54% [2] Global Refining Activity - As of the week ending February 6, global refinery shutdowns totaled approximately 5.4 million barrels per day, a decrease of about 880,000 barrels per day from the previous week, primarily driven by the resumption of activities in Asia [3] - Future global refinery shutdowns are expected to slightly decrease to just above 5 million barrels per day, largely dependent on the restart timing of the Dangote refinery, a key uncertainty in Africa [3] Geopolitical Focus - The situation in Iran is under market scrutiny, with plans for continued negotiations and a significant decrease in the probability of U.S. actions against Iran, leaving Iranian oil supply and the Strait of Hormuz unaffected [3] - The Russia-Ukraine situation shows no significant progress in ceasefire agreements, with ongoing negotiations under pressure from sanctions and reduced Indian purchases affecting Russia's financial position [3] Institutional Insights - CICC believes that the next expected turning point in the oil market may be the production peak of U.S. shale oil, with potential for substantial improvement in market oversupply in the second half of the year, which could provide marginal cost guidance and upward price movement opportunities [4] Popular ETFs - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) and its linked funds (017855/017856) track the China Petroleum Industry Index, focusing on "big energy" security logic. They not only share profits from downstream chemical products but also secure upstream resource value through high allocations to leading refining companies, demonstrating stronger performance resilience during oil price upcycles [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" [3] Core Insights - The fertilizer market is entering a traditional demand peak with structural price increases expected due to the spring farming season, which accounts for approximately 45%-50% of annual fertilizer usage [1][7] - The chemical fiber industry is approaching its peak demand season, with low inventory varieties likely to show price elasticity [9][11] Summary by Sections Fertilizer Sector - Urea prices are expected to stabilize and potentially rise due to increased demand from delayed planting and government policies aimed at boosting grain yields [7] - Phosphate fertilizer prices are supported by strong cost factors, with a forecast of continued high prices due to supply constraints and stable demand [8] - Potash fertilizer prices are anticipated to rise as supply remains tight, with a contract price of $348 per ton for 2026, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year [8] Chemical Fiber Sector - The "golden March and silver April" period is a traditional peak for the chemical fiber industry, with downstream textile companies expected to increase procurement to meet seasonal demand [9] - Polyester filament production is being managed through coordinated reductions to improve profitability, with current inventory levels at historical lows [11] - Viscose staple fiber is experiencing high operating rates and low inventory, suggesting strong upward price potential [11] Overall Chemical Industry Performance - The chemical sector has seen a significant increase in attention due to a rebound in PPI and capital expenditure trends, with the industry valuation at a historical low [18][19] - The report suggests focusing on four main investment themes, including upstream resource assets, supply-side optimization, low valuation leading companies, and new productivity investments [19][20][21][22]

化工板块周五（2月6日）逆市猛攻。反映化工板块整体走势的化工ETF（516020）早盘低开后迅速拉 升，盘中场内价格最高涨幅达到3.45%，而后持续高位震荡，尾盘略有回落，最终逆市收涨2.37%。 成份股方面，锂电、磷化工、石化等板块部分个股涨幅居前。截至收盘，恩捷股份涨停，宏达股份、浙 江龙盛、天赐材料等大涨超6%，恒逸石化、荣盛石化、华峰化学等亦涨幅居前。 | | | | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 周 月 图8 | | | | | F9 盘前盘后 露加 九特 画球 工具 @ (2) > | | 44. TETF O | | 516020 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DOG | | | | 516020Hz工ETF] 15:00 � 0.949 通款 0.022(2.37%) 均价 0.947 服交量 0.10PV 0.9491 | | | | | 2026/02/06 | 0 946 | | +0.022 +2.379 | | | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in the A-share market is primarily driven by internal factors, such as proactive cooling measures and a sell-off in broad-based ETFs, while external factors include political actions by Trump, the change in the Federal Reserve chair, geopolitical tensions in Iran, and a decline in global AI stock preferences. Despite these disturbances, the fundamental industry outlook in China remains intact, and the market sentiment has sufficiently released, suggesting a potential continuation of the spring rally after the Spring Festival [1][2][9]. Internal Factors - The proactive cooling measures by regulators have led to a sell-off in broad-based ETFs, resulting in a temporary decline in market risk appetite. Some thematic sectors have experienced speculative bubbles, prompting the China Securities Regulatory Commission to implement "counter-cyclical adjustments" [9][11]. - The adjustment is viewed as phase-specific, with the proactive cooling measures nearing completion and seasonal factors related to the Spring Festival and the Two Sessions expected to support market recovery [2][11]. External Factors - External disturbances, including Trump's political actions, the new Federal Reserve chair's policy expectations, and geopolitical tensions in Iran, have amplified the adjustment pressure. However, these factors are not expected to have a long-term impact on the A-share market due to its weak correlation with global markets [9][11][13]. - The current external disturbances do not possess the necessary conditions to transmit long-term impacts to the A-share market, as they primarily pertain to financial and political short-term disruptions rather than fundamental changes in supply chains or demand [13][15]. Market Sentiment and Liquidity - Market sentiment has sufficiently cooled, with a significant reduction in trading volume and a drop in the Shanghai Composite Index below its 20-day moving average. This indicates that the previously overheated market sentiment has been effectively resolved [18][20]. - The sell-off in broad-based ETFs has shown signs of easing since January 30, which is expected to improve the independent funding environment of the A-share market [15][18]. Industry Focus and Investment Opportunities - Key sectors to focus on include AI computing power, chemicals, electric equipment, and energy storage, with potential investment opportunities arising from upcoming policy signals from local Two Sessions and the national Two Sessions [20][28]. - The AI computing power sector is expected to see significant capital expenditure increases, with major companies like Meta, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft planning substantial investments in AI infrastructure [20][21]. - The chemical sector is experiencing a valuation recovery driven by price increases in various sub-sectors, with leading companies in PET, polyurethane, and other chemical products becoming focal points for investment [24][25]. - The energy storage industry is benefiting from both domestic and international demand, particularly from AI-driven data center projects in North America, highlighting its critical role in power solutions [28][29].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [5] Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is experiencing a recovery opportunity across various sub-sectors, with specific recommendations for leading companies such as Wanhua Chemical (600309, Buy) in the MDI sector, and China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (600028, Buy) in the refining sector [3][5] - The demand for oxalic acid is expected to rise, driven by investments in the iron-lithium supply chain, indicating a tightening supply-demand situation that may elevate market conditions [3][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report continues to favor recovery opportunities in the chemical sub-sectors, recommending leading companies such as: - MDI leader: Wanhua Chemical (600309, Buy) - PVC industry: Zhongtai Chemical (002092, Not Rated), Xinjiang Tianye (600075, Not Rated), Chlor-alkali Chemical (600618, Not Rated), Tianyuan Co., Ltd. (002386, Not Rated) - Refining sector: China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (600028, Buy), Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493, Buy), Hengli Petrochemical (600346, Buy) - Agricultural chemical chain: Guoguang Co., Ltd. (002749, Buy), Xinyangfeng (000902, Buy), Shidanli (002588, Not Rated), Yuntu Holdings (002539, Not Rated), Runfeng Co., Ltd. (301035, Buy) - Phosphate chemical sector: Chuanheng Co., Ltd. (002895, Not Rated), Yuntianhua (600096, Not Rated) - Oxalic acid sector: Hualu Hengsheng (600426, Buy), Huayi Group (600623, Buy), Wankai New Materials (301216, Buy) [3] Market Dynamics - The chemical industry has seen increased attention, with a recovery in stock prices following a dip influenced by precious metals and crude oil futures. This indicates a shift away from previous narratives tied to external market influences [8] - The report highlights that the current chemical market rally is primarily driven by policy guidance and strategic adjustments within the industry, suggesting a return to a favorable economic cycle for the chemical sector [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a weekly update on major refining and petrochemical sectors, including price, profit, inventory, and production rate data for domestic and foreign projects, as well as key companies' performance and financial forecasts [1][2][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Big Refining Weekly Data Brief - **6 Major Private Refining Companies' Performance**: The report tracks the price changes of 6 major private refining companies in the past week, month, three months, and year. For example, Hengli Petrochemical had a -5.3% change in the past week, 12.3% in the past month, 41.5% in the past three months, and 70.9% in the past year [8]. - **Earnings Forecast**: It also provides earnings forecasts for these companies from 2024 to 2027, along with price - earnings ratios (PE) and price - to - book ratios (PB) [8]. - **Oil Prices and Refining Spreads**: International crude oil prices (Brent and WTI) and domestic and foreign refining spreads are presented. The domestic refining project spread this week was 2403 yuan/ton, a 1.6% increase from last week, while the foreign spread was 1104 yuan/ton, a 0.6% increase [8]. - **Polyester Sector**: Product prices, profits, inventories, and production rates are detailed for various polyester products such as PX, MEG, PTA, POY, FDY, DTY, polyester staple fiber, and polyester bottle chips. For instance, the POY industry average price was 7071 yuan/ton this week, a 171 yuan/ton increase, with a weekly average profit of 208 yuan/ton, a 275 yuan/ton increase [2][9]. - **Refining Sector**: Prices and spreads of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in China, the US, Europe, and Singapore are reported. For example, the domestic gasoline price was 7588 yuan/ton this week, a 53 yuan/ton increase [9]. - **Chemical Sector**: Prices and spreads of various chemical products like EVA, styrene, acrylonitrile, polyethylene, and polypropylene are provided [9]. 2. Big Refining Weekly Report 2.1 Big Refining Index and Project Spread Trends No specific data analysis is provided in the given content, but it likely focuses on the trends of the big refining index and project spreads [11][12][13]. 2.2 Polyester Sector The section covers multiple aspects such as the prices and profits of PX, PTA, and various polyester filaments (POY, FDY, DTY), as well as the production rates and inventories of polyester products and downstream weaving industries. For example, the PX average price was 895.6 dollars/ton this week, a 26.4 dollars/ton decrease, and the PX production rate was 89.9%, unchanged from last week [2][9]. 2.3 Refining Sector It includes the price and spread relationships between crude oil and refined oil products in different regions (China, the US, Europe, and Singapore), such as the relationship between crude oil and domestic diesel prices [72][75][83]. 2.4 Chemical Sector The section presents the price and spread relationships between crude oil and various chemical products, like the relationship between crude oil and polyethylene LLDPE prices [109][110].