Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (Maintain Rating) [1] Core Viewpoints - The macroeconomic expectations are fluctuating, leading to a rebound in the prices of non-ferrous metals, with copper and aluminum continuing to deplete inventories [4][11] - Gold prices have reached historical highs due to increased safe-haven demand, although recent political developments have caused volatility [5][19] - The market sentiment for tin has improved due to easing trade tensions between the US and China, with prices showing a strong upward trend [39] Summary by Sections 1. Base Metals & Precious Metals - Copper: Prices have continued to rise, with the Shanghai copper closing at 77,480 CNY/ton, supported by inventory depletion and stable demand [4][11] - Aluminum: Prices have increased, with the Shanghai aluminum closing at 19,970 CNY/ton, driven by improved market confidence and reduced inventories [15][18] - Precious Metals: As of April 24, the average price of gold was 801.08 CNY/gram, up 4.12% from the previous week, while silver averaged 8,198 CNY/kg, up 1.43% [5][19] 2. Minor Metals - Tin: The price closed at 31,500 USD/ton, up 540 USD/ton (1.74%) from the previous week, with improved macro sentiment and easing supply concerns [39] - Lithium: Prices remain under pressure due to weak demand, with industrial-grade lithium averaging 570,000 CNY/ton [31] - Cobalt: Prices for cobalt concentrate remain stable, while electrolytic cobalt prices have seen slight adjustments [34][35] 3. Rare Earths - Prices for light rare earths have decreased, with neodymium-praseodymium oxide down 2.5% to 406,000 CNY/ton, but long-term demand remains strong [6] 4. Tungsten - Prices for tungsten have increased due to tightening supply, with black tungsten concentrate averaging 147,000 CNY/ton [45][46] 5. Molybdenum - The molybdenum market has shown signs of recovery, with prices for molybdenum concentrate rising to 3,355 CNY/ton [53][54]

Core Viewpoint - The recent appointment of four new fund managers at Invesco Great Wall Fund, alongside veteran manager Bao Wuke, has raised speculation about potential changes in management and performance of the funds involved [2][3]. Group 1: Fund Manager Changes - Bao Wuke, a seasoned fund manager with over 17 years of experience, has been managing several funds at Invesco Great Wall Fund, including the Value Margin and Hong Kong-Shanghai Select funds [2]. - The newly appointed fund managers are Liu Su, Zou Lihua, Zhang Zhongwei, and Wang Yong, all of whom are experienced professionals within the company [3][4]. - The "old hands co-managing" model is relatively rare in the fund industry, as the more common practice is "old leads new" for training purposes [3]. Group 2: Fund Performance Post-Appointment - Following the announcement of the new appointments on April 12, three out of four funds have shown an increase in performance [5]. - The net asset value of the Value Margin fund rose from 1.5335 to 1.5425, with major holdings including Zijin Mining and Midea Group [5][6]. - The National Enterprise Value Mixed A fund's net value slightly decreased from 1.2086 to 1.2083, with Zijin Mining being the largest holding at 10.01% of the fund's net asset value [6]. - The Hong Kong-Shanghai Select A fund's net value increased from 2.177 to 2.191, with Midea Group as the top holding at 6.65% [6]. - The Value Discovery A1 fund's net value rose from 1.0927 to 1.1005, with Zijin Mining as the largest holding at 6.04% [6]. Group 3: Management Structure Insights - The effectiveness of co-managing a fund is debated, with some experts suggesting that a single manager may have more independence in decision-making [7]. - However, there are exceptions where a dual-manager structure can enhance performance, particularly in complex products requiring diverse expertise [7].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询证号：Z0019840 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：hebin@bcqhgs.com 有色金属 姓名：何彬 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F03090813 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 4 月 24 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色震荡运行 核心观点 沪铜 今日铜价冲高回落，主力期价由昨日的 7.8 万一线回落至 7.7 万 一线。短期铜价已修复至 2 月的水平，精废价差有所走阔，产业支撑 较强但推动意愿会有所下降。美元指数大幅下挫后迎来反弹，一定 程度上也将抑制铜价上涨。短期关注 5 日均线支撑，预计期价将趋于 震荡运行。 沪铝 今日铝价围绕 1.99 万一线窄幅震荡。Mysteel 报道，华东现货市 场表现弱稳运行，铝价涨至近期高位，基差延续下调，持货商挺价控 制节奏 ...

天眼查商业履历信息显示，中国国际金融股份有限公司成立于1995年7月，位于北京市，是一家以从事 其他金融业为主的企业。注册资本482725.6868万人民币，法定代表人为陈亮。 近期份额规模变动情况： 日期期间申购（亿份）期间赎回（亿份）期末总份额（亿份）期末净资产（亿元）净资产变动率2025- 03-310.000.000.020.02-2.54%2024-12-310.000.020.020.02-47.96%2024-09-300.000.020.040.04-27.77%2024- 06-300.290.350.060.06-49.10% 数据显示，该基金近3个月收益率0.55%，近一年收益率3.48%，成立以来收益率为-13.37%。其股票持 仓前十分别为：零跑汽车、分众传媒、中芯国际、腾讯控股、建设银行、招金矿业、北方华创、宁德时 代、神火股份、益丰药房，前十持仓占比合计8.59%。 截至2025年3月31日，中金公司旗下中金安心回报灵活配置混合C（920921）期末净资产0.68亿元，比上 期减少4.19%，该基金经理为顾柔刚。 简历显示，顾柔刚先生:国籍中国,管理学硕士。曾任中国农业银行信用卡 ...

事件：事件：公司公告2025 年一季报，实现营收96.32 亿元、同比增长17.13%；归母净利润7.08 亿元、 同比下降35.05%；扣非后归母净利润为7.15 亿元、同比下降29.43%。 煤价承压+氧化铝价格波动，影响公司一季度业绩表现。根据公司公告内容，2025Q1 公司归母净利润 同比下降的主要原因是：主营业务中煤炭产品的价格同比下降、铝产品的主要原材料氧化铝价格同比上 涨，造成公司主营产品盈利能力减弱。环比来看，公司2025Q1 收入为96.32 亿元、环比2024Q4下降 4.24%；归母净利润为7.08 亿元、环比2024Q4 下降7.83%；扣非后归母净利润为7.15 亿元、环比2024Q4 增长1.97%。在2024 年年报点评中我们测算过： 1）煤炭：2024 年产量为673.90 万吨，增速为-6.01%；销量为670.13 万吨，增速为-7.54%；负责煤炭生 产销售的子公司兴隆公司（公司持股比例为82.00%）和新龙公司（持股比例100%）净利润分别为3.32 和3.69 亿元，因此我们测算出2024 年公司煤炭业务的吨净利大约在105 元左右；2）电解铝：2024 年产 量为1 ...

神火股份 2025042220250416 摘要 • 煤炭板块利润贡献接近于零，尽管产量增加 40 万吨，但煤价同比下降约 300 元/吨，年度均价 780 元/吨（不含税），同比下降 28%，部分矿井出 现亏损，如牛河矿亏损达七八千万元。 • 铝板块新疆和云南均满产，总产量 43 万吨。铝价上涨 1,000-1,300 元/吨， 但成本亦增加。新疆盈利约 7 亿元，每吨 3,500 元；云南盈利约 4 亿元， 每吨 3,500 元。一季度加工业务亏损 600 万元。 • 财务费用控制良好，一季度完成 4,000 万元，全年计划不超过 5,000 万元。 一季度投资收益 1.8 亿元，其中广西龙州贡献 1.3 亿元，但氧化锂价格回 落可能影响二季度后收益。 • 公司现有 5 万吨铝库存，其中 2.5 万吨为正常滚存，预计二季度消化，对 业绩有支撑。一季度末部分库存未开票，将在二季度体现销售收入。 • 电解铝工艺成本受氧化铝和电价影响。当前氧化铝价格约 2,850 元/吨，云 南电价二季度预计降至 0.45 元/度，新疆电价稳定在 0.24 元/度。氧化锂 价格稳定在 5,000-5,400 元/吨。 Q&A ...

Report Information - Report Type: Coke and Coking Coal Daily Review [1] - Date: April 23, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] Market Performance Futures Market - On April 22, the main contract 2509 of coke futures significantly declined, erasing the previous day's gains and approaching the previous low of 1517 yuan/ton set on April 9. The main contract 2509 of coking coal futures also significantly declined, hitting a new low of 924 yuan/ton for the September contract since October 2016 [5]. - The closing price of J2509 was 1530.5 yuan/ton, down 1.83%, with a trading volume of 23,584 lots and an open interest of 37,180 lots, an increase of 3,784 lots, and a capital inflow of 0.87 billion yuan. The closing price of JM2509 was 928.5 yuan/ton, down 2.42%, with a trading volume of 350,052 lots and an open interest of 360,046 lots, an increase of 19,667 lots, and a capital inflow of 1.05 billion yuan [5]. Spot Market - On April 22, the ex - warehouse price index of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke in Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1440 yuan/ton, with no change. The price in Tangshan was 1370 yuan/ton, also unchanged [8]. - The aggregated price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Tangshan was 1365 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Lvliang, it was 1240 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; in Linfen, it was 1330 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Handan, it was 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Heze, it was 1320 yuan/ton, unchanged; and in Pingdingshan, it was 1460 yuan/ton, unchanged [8]. Technical Analysis - On April 22, the daily KDJ indicator of the coke 2509 contract changed from a golden cross to a death cross, and the daily KDJ indicator of the coking coal 2509 contract declined, with the J and K values turning down and the D value continuing to decline. The daily MACD green bars of both the coke and coking coal 2509 contracts enlarged [8]. Market Outlook Coke - Currently, downstream steel mills maintain high production, and coking plants have significantly increased production for five consecutive weeks. The obvious destocking of steel mills and coking plants is favorable, but the rising port inventory is unfavorable. Coke price rebound requires the recovery of the finished steel market. After the steel price rebounded from the low and then fluctuated weakly, it is expected that the coke market may improve following the finished steel before the end of April [9]. Coking Coal - Imports are at a high level and have increased. The domestic coal industry still emphasizes the principle of ensuring supply. Although the production and operating rate of coal washing plants are significantly lower than that in the fourth quarter of last year, the supply remains loose. The inventories of steel mills and ports have significantly decreased, but the recent active replenishment of coking plants will discount the later price rebound. Whether the decline of coking coal can stop depends on whether the coke market can truly recover [9]. Strategy - It is expected that the coke and coking coal markets will stabilize and rebound after a second bottom - finding in late April. One can try to sell put options at high prices during the price - stabilizing stage or try to buy the far - month 2509 contract for hedging or investment after the price stabilizes [9]. Industry News - The CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the "Opinions on Implementing the Strategy of Upgrading Free Trade Pilot Zones", covering data flow, shipping, finance, and other aspects [10]. - The Ministry of Finance issued a notice on April 21, allocating over 13.5 billion yuan in the first batch of energy - saving and emission - reduction subsidy funds for 2025, including 2.91 billion yuan for pre - allocating the reward funds for the pilot project of filling and swapping facilities in counties in 2025 [10]. - Many companies released financial reports, including Yue Electric Power A, Yangmei Chemical Industry, TBEA, Wuchan Environmental Energy, and Shenhuo Co., Ltd., with varying revenue and profit performances [10][11] - Southern Power Grid's regional electricity consumption in the first quarter was 380.9 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4% [11] - Shougang Co., Ltd. and Geely Group signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement [12] - From January to March, Shanxi's coalbed methane production reached 3.53 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 14.5% [12] - In March 2025, China's coking coal imports decreased for the fourth consecutive month, with an import volume of 8.588 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.9% [12] - Coal India Ltd plans to build a 1600 - megawatt coal - fired power plant in Jharkhand [12] - The US announced new tariffs on solar products imported from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam [13] Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke, the aggregated price of main coking coal, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants and steel mills, the national daily average pig iron production, and the inventories of coke and coking coal in ports, steel mills, and coking plants [14][15][16]

2025 年 04 月 23 日 开源晨会 0423 其 他 研 究 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 数据来源：聚源 -16% 0% 16% 32% 48% 64% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 沪深300 创业板指 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 商贸零售 | 1.034 | | 建筑材料 | 1.017 | | 交通运输 | 0.902 | | 房地产 | 0.843 | | 医药生物 | 0.816 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 昨日涨跌幅后五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 传媒 | -1.078 | | 通信 | -0.972 | | 计算机 | -0.898 | | 机械设备 | -0.799 | | 电力设备 | -0.665 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 行业深度报告-20250422 贡献利润弹性——公司信息更新报告-20250422 信息更新报告-20250422 ——公司信息更新报告-20250422 亮眼——公司信息更新报告-20250422 【计算机：海光信息(6 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the decline in alumina prices supports performance, with a focus on the growth potential of coal and aluminum businesses, as well as the elasticity of aluminum [3][4] - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 9.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.13%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 710 million yuan, down 35.1% year-on-year and 7.8% quarter-on-quarter [3][4] - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 5.81 billion, 6.46 billion, and 7.01 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.58, 2.87, and 3.12 yuan [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 9.63 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.13% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 4.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 710 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 35.1% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 7.8% [3][4] - The company’s coal production capacity is 8.55 million tons per year, with a focus on high-quality metallurgical coal. The average price of coal in Q1 2025 showed a decline, with the price of Yongcheng anthracite coal averaging 1240 yuan per ton, down 13.4% year-on-year and 3.7% quarter-on-quarter [4][5] - The report projects a significant increase in net profit for 2025-2027, with expected growth rates of 35%, 11.2%, and 8.5% respectively [3][7] Business Outlook - The coal and aluminum business is expected to see further growth, with coal production projected to increase to approximately 7.2 million tons in 2025 due to technical upgrades at Liuhe Coal Mine [5] - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio to 41.78% in 2024, up by 11.3 percentage points from 2023, indicating a commitment to enhancing shareholder returns [5] - The report emphasizes the importance of the company's market management practices, which include focusing on core business, improving operational efficiency, and utilizing various strategies for market value management [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the decline in alumina prices supports performance, with a focus on the growth potential of coal and aluminum businesses, as well as the elasticity of aluminum [3][4] - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 9.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.13%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 710 million yuan, down 35.1% year-on-year and 7.8% quarter-on-quarter [3][4] - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 5.81 billion, 6.46 billion, and 7.01 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.58, 2.87, and 3.12 yuan [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 9.63 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 17.13% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 4.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 710 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 35.1% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 7.8% [3][4] - The company expects a net profit growth of 35% in 2025, followed by 11.2% and 8.5% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [3][4] Business Segments - The coal business has a certified production capacity of 8.55 million tons per year, with a focus on high-quality metallurgical coal. In Q1 2025, coal prices decreased, with the average price of Yancheng anthracite coal at 1,240 yuan per ton, down 13.4% year-on-year and 3.7% quarter-on-quarter [4][5] - The electrolytic aluminum business has a production capacity of 1.7 million tons per year, with the average price of aluminum in Q1 2025 at 20,433 yuan per ton, up 7.2% year-on-year but down 0.5% quarter-on-quarter [4][5] Growth Potential - The company anticipates an increase in coal production to approximately 7.2 million tons in 2025, supported by the technological upgrades at Liuhe Coal Mine [5] - The company has increased its dividend payout ratio to 41.78% in 2024, up 11.3 percentage points from 2023, indicating a commitment to enhancing shareholder returns [5]