Core Insights - The report highlights the recent developments in the non-ferrous metals industry, including advancements in AI tools by ByteDance and Meituan, indicating a growing demand for AI-driven solutions in various sectors [1] - The market performance of the non-ferrous metals sector shows a positive trend, with the SW non-ferrous metals industry index increasing by 1.50% [2] - Key metal prices have shown varied movements, with copper, aluminum, and zinc prices rising, while some rare earth elements have decreased [3] Market Performance - As of April 25, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.56% to 3295.06 points, and the CSI 300 Index increased by 0.38% to 3786.99 points [2] - The SW non-ferrous metals industry index reached 4641 points, reflecting a 1.50% increase [2] - Among the five sub-industries in non-ferrous metals, industrial metals and energy metals saw increases of 2.35% and 2.93%, respectively, while precious metals decreased by 2.52% [2] Key Metal Prices - The prices for key metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are as follows: copper at 77,440 CNY/ton (+1.91%), aluminum at 20,030 CNY/ton (+1.68%), zinc at 22,750 CNY/ton (+3.34%), lead at 16,945 CNY/ton (+0.68%), nickel at 125,800 CNY/ton (+0.15%), and tin at 262,840 CNY/ton (+2.39%) [3] - On the London Metal Exchange, copper, aluminum, and zinc prices also increased, with copper at 9,360 USD/ton (+1.87%) and aluminum at 2,438 USD/ton (+3.04%) [3] - Gold and silver prices on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 787.20 CNY/gram (+0.22%) and 8,280 CNY/kilogram (+1.79%), respectively [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the easing of trade tensions between the U.S. and China may enhance market risk appetite, leading to potential rebounds in industrial metal stocks [4][5] - Specific recommendations include investing in gold-related A-shares such as Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shandong Gold Mining, and Hunan Gold, as well as industrial metal leaders like Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Aluminum [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony industries [9]. Core Views - The report highlights a positive outlook for copper and aluminum prices due to improving downstream demand and inventory depletion [5][7]. - Gold prices are expected to maintain an upward trend supported by the ongoing interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve [9]. - The tin market is anticipated to experience weak price movements due to a lack of short-term catalysts [9]. - Antimony prices are expected to remain weak in the short term, but long-term supply-demand dynamics may support prices [9]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector showed a weekly increase of 2.04%, outperforming other sectors [19]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included tungsten (+4.50%), nickel (+3.79%), and aluminum (+3.78%) [19]. Copper Market - LME copper closed at $9,415 per ton, up $283 per ton (3.10%) from April 17 [5]. - SHFE copper closed at ¥77,650 per ton, up ¥1,780 per ton (2.34%) from April 17 [5]. - Domestic copper social inventory decreased significantly, indicating strong demand [6]. Aluminum Market - Domestic electrolytic aluminum prices reached ¥20,100 per ton, an increase of ¥210 per ton (1.06%) [7]. - LME aluminum inventory decreased by 12,575 tons, while domestic SHFE inventory also saw a decline [7]. - The operating rate for leading aluminum profile enterprises increased to 59.5% [8]. Tin Market - Domestic refined tin prices rose to ¥263,180 per ton, up ¥6,800 per ton (2.65%) [9]. - The market is expected to remain weak due to insufficient demand catalysts [9]. Antimony Market - Domestic antimony ingot prices fell to ¥235,500 per ton, down ¥8,000 per ton [9]. - The market activity is low, with cautious purchasing behavior from downstream buyers [9]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends specific stocks in the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony sectors, including Zhongjin Gold, Zijin Mining, and Huaxi Youshi [10][12][13].

2025 年 04 月 28 日 下游开工向好以及库存去化，铜铝价格维持较强 走势 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：傅鸿浩 S1050521120004 fuhh@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：杜飞 S1050523070001 dufei2@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属(申万) | -4.8 | 2.9 | -1.6 | | 沪深 300 | -3.3 | -0.8 | 5.7 | 市场表现 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 (%) 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《有色金属行业周报：关税影响 美国经济滞涨风险增大，金价支撑 仍然强劲》2025-04-21 2、《有色金属行业周报：美国通胀 持续走弱，降息预期提升支撑金 价》2025-04-14 3、《有色金属行业周报：电解铝库 存去化叠加下游需求向好，铝价偏 强看待》2025-03-31 美联储票委古尔斯比本周发言对美国经济和未来利率水平做 了点评。古尔斯比表示，短期通胀预期上升，但长期预期未 ...

Investment Rating - The industry maintains an "Accumulate" rating [5] Core Views - The gold market is expected to enter a consolidation phase in the short term, while still possessing upward momentum in the medium term. Recent price fluctuations are attributed to easing tariff policies and profit-taking by bullish investors. Concerns about the sustainability of central bank gold purchases are also noted [1][36] - For industrial metals, copper is seeing a recovery in prices due to increased downstream operating rates and a significant drop in inventories. The market sentiment has improved following the easing of tariff tensions, although uncertainties from trade conflicts remain [2] - In the energy metals sector, lithium production is being constrained by cost pressures, leading to a reduction in operational rates. The market is closely monitoring inventory levels for signs of a turning point [3] Summary by Sections Weekly Data Tracking - The non-ferrous metal sector has generally seen an increase in prices this week, with specific metals experiencing varied price movements [12][18] - The overall non-ferrous metal index rose by 1.5%, with energy metals up by 2.9% and precious metals down by 2.5% [18] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Downstream operating rates have improved, and global copper inventories have decreased significantly to 641,000 tons, down by 55,000 tons week-on-week. The market anticipates a price recovery due to increased demand and tight supply conditions [2] - **Aluminum**: The easing of U.S. tariff policies is expected to support aluminum prices in the short term, despite an increase in production capacity [2] Energy Metals - **Lithium**: The production of lithium salts is being curtailed due to rising costs, with current production rates at 45%. The market is awaiting a potential inventory turning point [3] - **Silicon Metal**: High inventory levels are limiting price increases, with current social inventory at 602,000 tons. The market remains in a loose supply-demand balance [3] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chalco, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - Iron ore prices have shown significant loosening, suggesting a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the steel sector. The report indicates that after three years of adjustment, the current position of the steel sector offers high cost-effectiveness, with leading enterprises showing improved profitability and stability [8][13]. Summary by Sections Macro Overview - Iron ore prices are expected to decline as steel production peaks post-May Day, leading to potential profit squeezes for iron ore suppliers. The domestic demand-driven pricing in the steel sector is highlighted as a key factor [8][13]. Steel Sector - The weekly consumption of rebar decreased to 2.6 million tons, a significant drop of 5.07% week-on-week. The average price of rebar increased slightly by 1.34% to 3,323 CNY/ton, while cold-rolled prices fell by 1.54% to 3,812 CNY/ton [14][36]. - Total steel inventory decreased significantly, with a total of 1,083 million tons, down 3.68% week-on-week and 24.11% year-on-year [23]. - The profitability of rebar production has improved, with long-process rebar margins increasing by 25 CNY/ton and short-process margins rising by 350 CNY/ton [34][36]. Industrial Metals - The report notes a deepening negative value for copper TC/RC, with the average LME aluminum price rising by 3.63% to 2,412 USD/ton. The cost of electrolytic aluminum in Xinjiang decreased significantly by 16.22%, leading to a substantial profit increase [16][28]. Precious Metals - The report suggests that tariffs may boost demand for safe-haven assets and inflation expectations, with gold prices expected to continue rising. As of April 25, 2025, COMEX gold prices were reported at 3,330.2 USD/ounce, a slight decrease of 0.33% week-on-week [16][48]. New Energy Metals - Lithium production in China saw a significant year-on-year increase of 57.44% in February 2025, with prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate at 69,600 CNY/ton. Nickel and cobalt prices showed mixed trends, with nickel prices declining [15][39][48].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - Iron ore prices have shown significant loosening, suggesting a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the steel sector. The market anticipates that after the May Day holiday, iron water production will peak, potentially squeezing iron ore profits, leading to downward price feedback [8][13]. - The steel sector has experienced three years of adjustment, positioning it as a high-value investment opportunity. The profitability and stability of leading enterprises have significantly improved, and the supply structure of iron ore may undergo substantial changes, allowing profits to flow back to the domestic steel industry [8][13]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry - The consumption of rebar has decreased, with a reported national consumption of 2.6 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 5.07%. The average price of rebar has slightly increased to 3,323 CNY/ton, while cold-rolled prices have decreased to 3,812 CNY/ton, down 1.54% week-on-week [14][37]. - The total steel inventory has decreased significantly, with a total inventory of 1,083 million tons, down 3.68% week-on-week and 24.11% year-on-year [23]. - The profitability of long and short process rebar has increased, with long process rebar profit rising by 25 CNY/ton and short process rebar profit increasing by 350 CNY/ton [34]. Industrial Metals - The copper treatment charge (TC) and refining charge (RC) have deepened into negative territory, indicating challenges in the copper market. The LME aluminum price has risen to 2,412 USD/ton, a week-on-week increase of 3.63% [16]. - The production costs for electrolytic aluminum have decreased significantly, with costs in Xinjiang dropping by 16.22% and profits increasing by 3,455 CNY/ton [16]. Precious Metals - Tariffs may drive up demand for safe-haven assets and inflation expectations, with gold prices expected to continue rising. The COMEX gold price is reported at 3,330.2 USD/ounce, with a slight week-on-week decline of 0.33% [16][49]. New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in China has significantly increased, with a reported production of 56,110 tons in February 2025, a year-on-year increase of 57.44% [15][40]. - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is currently 69,600 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight week-on-week decrease of 1.21% [49].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights a rebound in copper prices due to increased downstream activity and accelerated inventory depletion, with copper prices rising by 2.98% in the US, 2.55% in London, and 1.71% in Shanghai. The report notes that the largest copper mine in Peru, Antamina, has halted operations due to an accident, impacting supply. The copper rod operating rate increased to 79.56%, and social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased by 22.15% to 181,700 tons [4][3] - Aluminum prices are rising as domestic inventory decreases, with alumina prices stabilizing after maintenance cuts. The report indicates that electrolytic aluminum margins have improved, suggesting a potential shortage in supply this year [4][3] - Lithium prices are under pressure due to demand growth not meeting expectations, leading to continued inventory accumulation and a downward trend in prices. The report emphasizes the need to monitor potential production cuts and marginal improvements in demand [4][3] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report provides insights into macroeconomic conditions, noting that initial jobless claims in the US were in line with expectations [8] - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 1.50% [13] 2. Industrial Metals 2.1. Copper - Copper prices increased, with London copper up 2.55% and Shanghai copper up 1.71%. Inventory levels decreased significantly, with Shanghai copper inventory down 31.97% [28] 2.2. Aluminum - Aluminum prices rose, with London aluminum increasing by 3.25% and Shanghai aluminum by 1.29%. The report notes a rise in aluminum processing margins [37] 2.3. Lead and Zinc - Lead and zinc prices saw increases, with lead prices up 2.72% and zinc prices up 3.48%. The report indicates improved profitability for mining companies [48] 2.4. Tin and Nickel - Tin prices increased, with London tin up 5.04%. Nickel prices also saw slight increases, but profitability for nickel enterprises has narrowed [63] 3. Energy Metals 3.1. Lithium - Lithium prices are declining, with carbonate lithium down 2.31% to 69,800 yuan/ton. The report highlights the need for monitoring supply-side adjustments [79] 3.2. Cobalt - Cobalt prices have decreased, with domestic cobalt prices at 238,000 yuan/ton. The report notes a decline in profitability for domestic smelting plants [89]

证券代码：002532 证券简称：天山铝业 天山铝业集团股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录 编号：2025-002 投资者关系 活动类别 特定对象调研 分析师会议 媒体采访 业绩说明会 新闻发布会 路演活动 现场参观 电话会议 主要参与单 位名称及人 员姓名 投资者网上提问 时间 2025 年 4 月 25 日 15:00-16:00 地点 价值在线（https://www.ir-online.cn/）网络互动 上市公司接 待人员姓名 公司董事长兼总经理曾超林、副总经理李亚洲、独立董事李书锋、 副总经理兼董事会秘书周建良、财务总监胡春华 投资者关系 活动主要内 容介绍 1.祝贺公司 2024 年取得了不错的业绩，请问净利润增长的主 要原因是什么？ 答:尊敬的投资者您好！公司 2024 年业绩同比实现大幅增长 的主要原因如下：2024 年公司自产氧化铝对外销售均价同比上升 约 40%，产量同比增加约 7.5%，氧化铝板块利润同比实现较大幅 度增长。另外，公司自产铝锭对外销售均价同比上升约 6.5%，除 氧化铝之外的其他生产要素成本有所下降，电解铝板块利润同比 亦实现增长。 2.去年公司氧化铝的产量有多少？销售价格 ...

2025 年 04 月 25 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 陈晨 S0350522110007 chenc09@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 王璇 S0350523080001 wangx15@ghzq.com.cn ——天山铝业（002532）2025 年一季报&2024 年年报点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 | 300 | 表现 | | 2025/04/24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 天山铝业 | | -16.8% | -16.4% | 12.5% | | 沪深 300 | | -3.8% | -1.3% | 7.5% | | 市场数据 | 2025/04/24 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（元） | 7.57 | | 52 周价格区间（元） | 6.08-9.88 | | 总市值（百万） | 35,214.77 | | 流通市值（百万） | 31,264.14 | | 总股本（万股） | 465,188.54 | | 流通股本（万股） | 413,000. ...