证券研究报告 宝丰能源 (600989 CH) 内蒙项目兑现，筑牢低成本护城河 资料来源：公司公告、华泰研究预测 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 3 月 | 12 日│中国内地 | 化学原料 | 宝丰能源于 3 月 11 日发布 24 年年报：24 年实现收入 329.8 亿元， yoy+13.2%，归母净利 63.4 亿元（扣非后 67.8 亿元），yoy+12.2%（扣非 后+14.0%）；其中 24Q4 单季度实现收入 87.1 亿元，yoy-0.3%/qoq+18.0%， 归母净利 18.0 亿元，yoy+2.3%/qoq+46.2%。公司拟派现 30.1 亿元（含税）， 其中：中小股东每股派现 0.46 元，大股东每股派现 0.39 元。公司 Q4 净利 同环比提升，超出我们的前瞻预期（16.4 亿元），主要系煤炭价格大幅回落， 煤制烯烃盈利水平显著提升。我们认为未来伴随内蒙项目陆续投产，低成本 产能扩张有望筑牢公司煤制烯烃领域竞争优势，维持"买入"评级。 内蒙基地逐步放量，成本压力缓解带动毛利率提升 据年报，24 年 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China State Construction International (3311 HK) with a target price of HKD 18.79 [8][9]. Core Views - The strategic premium subscription by China Orient Asset Management (International) Holdings Limited, which will increase its stake from approximately 3.56% to 8.02%, reflects confidence in the company's future development in international markets and construction technology [1][3]. - The transaction is expected to significantly optimize the company's balance sheet and enhance operational capabilities, with approximately 16.67% of the proceeds allocated to debt repayment and the remaining funds directed towards construction technology and business investments [3][5]. - The booming development of the Northern Metropolis and the focus on urban renewal in mainland China present opportunities for the company, particularly in prefabricated construction [4]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be HKD 10.425 billion, HKD 11.830 billion, and HKD 13.361 billion respectively, with a steady growth rate [5][7]. - Revenue is projected to grow from HKD 113.734 billion in 2023 to HKD 157.989 billion by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [7][18]. - The company's estimated PE ratio for 2025 is set at 8x, with a target price adjustment from HKD 16.64 to HKD 18.79 based on strong contract growth and improved profitability [5][8].

| 华泰研究 | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 3 月 | 12 日│中国香港 | 乘用车 | 证券研究报告 零跑汽车 (9863 HK) 港股通 Q4 毛利率新高并盈利，B10 有望爆款 公司 24 年营收/归母净利+321.6/-28.2 亿，同比+92.0%/减亏 14.0 亿，毛利 率达 8.4%；24Q4 营收/归母净利+134.6/+0.8 亿，同比+155.0%/转正；符 合此前公司业绩预告(24 年营收不低于 305 亿元且毛利率不低于 8%，Q4 实现净利润转正)。25 年公司将迎全球化新车周期，叠加渠道端提前布局和 下沉，LEAP3.5 架构进一步集成降本，我们预计公司 25-27 年营收将保持 高速增长且毛利率持续提升，25 年有望实现全年盈利。维持买入评级。 规模效应+销量结构优化+成本管理，Q4 毛利率创新高并盈利 公司 24Q4 毛利率和净利率达 13.3%和 0.6%，提前一年实现单季度净利润 转正的目标。主要系：①24Q4 销量 12.09 万辆，同/环比+118.5%/+40.3%， 规模效应放大；我们预计 25 年公司销量有望大 ...

证券研究报告 BOSS 直聘 (BZ US) 边际趋势良好，期待春招弹性 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 年 | 3 月 | 12 日│美国 | 互联网 | 24Q4 MAU 为 5270 万，同比增长 28%。春节后平台用户呈现较高活跃度， 根据 Questmobile 的数据 2 月最后一周，BOSS 直聘/前程无忧/智联招聘/ 猎聘周活跃用户分别增长 yoy+12.9%/10%/-2%/12%，公司在规模和增长上 依然领先同业。根据 Sensor Tower 的数据显示 1-2 月同比增长 13.2%，好 于此前 24 年 11-12 月的数据跟踪。考虑到边际招聘需求回暖，公司指引 25Q1 收入为 19~19.2 亿元（yoy+ 11.5% ~12.7%），彭博一致预期为 18.85 亿，略好于预期。 盈利兑现持续，25 年利润率持续提升 24FY 公司毛利率 83.1%(yoy+ 0.9pct)，销售费用率为 28.2%，一次性品牌宣 传 投 放 前 提 下 同 比 依 然 下 降 5.3pct 。 管 理 和 研 发 费 用 ...

证券研究报告 房地产 土地收储指引更加明晰，落地进程有 望提速 华泰研究 2025 年 3 月 11 日│中国内地 动态点评 3 月 11 日，自然资源部、财政部发布《关于做好运用地方政府专项债券支 持土地储备有关工作的通知》。相较于 24 年 11 月的自然资源部文件（明确 了收地范围、价格和用途，具体可参考我们的报告《收地指引出炉，关注三 大要点》（24.11.11）），本次文件增量信息在于：1、进一步规范收地范围； 2、明确申报审核流程；3、强调资金和收益的综合平衡。根据中指院的数据， 截至 3 月 10 日，广东、四川、吉林、江西等已公示拟使用专项债券收地的 金额约 500 亿元；同时，北京、广东已率先发行用于土地储备的专项债券共 424 亿元，其中广东的 307 亿元全部用于回收闲置土地。我们预计规范文件 的持续出台有望给予地方政府更加明晰的操作指引，加速专项债券收地的落 地，从而平衡土地供需、改善房企流动性，进一步筑牢"止跌回稳"的趋势。 增量信息 1：进一步规范收地范围 本次文件指出，各地要优先将处置存量闲置土地清单中的地块纳入土地储备 计划，24 年 11 月 7 日之后供应的土地不列入存量闲 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 2.23 [8][9]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 11.58 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 0.90 billion for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21% in revenue but a decrease of 7% in net profit, primarily due to declining domestic rental prices. However, overseas expansion and growth in light asset management are expected to drive continued revenue growth [1]. - The company maintains a leading position in equipment management, with a management scale of 215,000 high-altitude operation platforms, a year-on-year increase of 20.8%. The domestic market share for high-altitude operation platforms reached 34.4% [2]. - The company has optimized its financing structure, achieving a historical low financing cost with an average financing rate of 3.99%. Capital expenditures for 2024 reached RMB 7.10 billion, a significant increase of 249.8% year-on-year, aimed at optimizing the domestic fleet structure and expanding overseas equipment and new categories [3]. - The overseas business saw a remarkable growth of over 27 times, reaching RMB 390 million, accounting for 3.4% of total revenue. The overseas gross profit margin was 43.7%, significantly higher than the domestic margin [4]. - Due to the decline in rental prices affecting gross margins, the company has adjusted its operating lease business gross margin forecasts for 2025 and 2026 down by 0.3% and 0.5% respectively. The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are RMB 0.95 billion, RMB 1.03 billion, and RMB 1.13 billion respectively [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 11.58 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 21%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 0.90 billion, down 7% year-on-year [1]. - The revenue from operating leasing services, engineering technical services, and asset management services for 2024 was RMB 46.2 billion, RMB 37.5 billion, and RMB 32.1 billion respectively, with year-on-year changes of -10.1%, +26.5%, and +113.0% [2]. Capital Expenditure and Financing - The company’s capital expenditure for 2024 was RMB 7.10 billion, a year-on-year increase of 249.8%, aimed at enhancing the domestic fleet and expanding into overseas markets [3]. - The financing cost reached a historical low with an average financing rate of 3.99%, contributing to improved cash flow [3]. Overseas Expansion and New Products - The overseas business revenue grew over 27 times to RMB 390 million, representing 3.4% of total revenue, with plans to increase overseas asset management scale to approximately RMB 10 billion by 2027 [4]. - New product categories, such as industrial air conditioners, generated RMB 220 million in revenue, marking a growth of over 800% year-on-year [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, predicting net profits of RMB 0.95 billion and RMB 1.03 billion, respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 23% and 27% from previous estimates [5]. - The target price is set at HKD 2.23, based on a 7x PE ratio for 2025, considering the need for liquidity improvement and the pressure on domestic leasing business margins [5].

Core Insights - The 2025 government work report continues the policy tone set in the previous year's Central Economic Work Conference, reflecting stability and continuity in policies, with four key highlights: structural credit easing as the backdrop, cost reduction as the method, and a focus on technology, consumption, and small and medium-sized enterprises [3] - Emphasis on steady growth through increasing household income and optimizing supply to boost consumption, alongside expanding investment through "two重" and service industry investments [3] - Quality improvement is prioritized by developing new productive forces tailored to local conditions, nurturing emerging/future industries, upgrading traditional industries, and promoting the digital economy [3] - Reform efforts are aimed at promoting healthy stock market development through policy initiatives, mechanism construction, and institutional reforms [3] Policy Framework - Fiscal policy maintains a "more proactive" stance with a historical high deficit target of 4%, indicating a potential acceleration in policy implementation [4] - Monetary policy continues to lean towards "moderate easing," with a focus on reducing financing costs and supporting sectors like technology innovation, green development, and small and micro enterprises [4] Consumption and Investment Focus - Consumption is prioritized, with initiatives like a 300 billion yuan program for trade-in subsidies, doubling last year's scale, and a focus on inbound consumption in sectors such as aviation and dining [5] - Investment strategies emphasize national strategic needs and public welfare, with increased central government investment budgets and a focus on high-tech industries and service sector investments [5] New Productive Forces - Development of new productive forces is centered on emerging industries, future industries, traditional upgrades, and the digital economy, with specific attention to commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, and 6G technology [6] - Stock selection should focus on regional leaders in industries supported by government policies, particularly in cities like Shenzhen and Hefei [6] Financial Reform and Risk Management - The report highlights the importance of attracting long-term capital into the market and enhancing the stability of the capital market through various reforms [7] - Emphasis on preventing financial risks through measures like capital replenishment and market exit strategies, with a focus on mergers and acquisitions in the financial sector as a theme for tracking [7]

Policy Overview - Trump emphasized a pro-business stance, advocating for deregulation and tax cuts for residents and businesses[1] - He highlighted the importance of tariffs for fiscal revenue and manufacturing return, while suggesting potential flexibility on tariffs with Mexico[1] - The administration aims to reduce inflation through increased energy supply and seeks peace in the Middle East and Ukraine[1] Immigration and Government Reform - Immigration arrests at the southern border dropped significantly from 300,000/month under Biden to 60,000/month[3] - Trump called for immediate congressional funding to support immigration enforcement and highlighted the achievements of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)[3] - He claimed to have uncovered fraud amounting to hundreds of billions in government spending, particularly in social security[3] Economic Policies - Trump proposed a permanent extension of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) and tax exemptions for tips, overtime, and social security benefits[3] - He confirmed the implementation of reciprocal tariffs on April 2, targeting countries with trade surpluses with the U.S.[4] - The administration plans to balance the federal budget through increased tariffs, selling immigration "gold cards," and reducing government waste[3] Market Implications - The inherent contradictions and randomness in Trump's policies, combined with DOGE's impact on government spending, may increase economic uncertainty and market volatility[5] - Despite signs of economic weakening, the resilient job market suggests the U.S. is still on track for a soft landing[5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [5] Core Insights - The Chinese government has announced a 15% tariff on certain U.S. agricultural products, including chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton, and a 10% tariff on others like sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, seafood, fruits, vegetables, and dairy products. The overall tariff on agricultural products is expected to rise to approximately 37%-60%, with soybeans facing a tariff rate of about 38% [2][3] - The report suggests that the tariff increase may slightly benefit domestic soybean prices while negatively impacting U.S. soybean prices. The reliance on U.S. soybeans has decreased significantly since 2018, with imports dropping from 33 million tons to 22.13 million tons by 2024 [3] - Corn is the only product with a tariff increase higher than in 2018, with the new tariff rate reaching 41%. The report anticipates a continued rebound in domestic corn prices due to reduced imports of corn and sorghum, which is a substitute for corn [4] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - The new tariffs will lead to a significant increase in the effective tariff rates on various agricultural products, with soybeans facing a 38% tariff and corn a 41% tariff [2][10] - The import dependency on U.S. soybeans has decreased, which may limit the impact of the tariffs on domestic prices [3] Market Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the corn seed sector, specifically suggesting stocks like Donghai Seed Industry and Longping High-Tech as potential investment opportunities [4][12] - The expected rebound in domestic corn prices is attributed to the anticipated reduction in imports of corn and sorghum [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 16.17 [8][19]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 1.029 billion for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 11.52%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 38.63 million, down 85.16% year-on-year. However, the company achieved a significant quarter-on-quarter revenue increase of 213.32% in Q4 2024 [1][5]. - The decline in revenue is primarily attributed to a slowdown in downstream demand in traditional industries such as industrial communication. Despite this, there is optimism regarding high growth in the company's industrial OS revenue in 2025 due to domestic substitution trends and the mass production of robots driving industrial control product demand [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's industrial network communication business generated revenue of RMB 661 million, down 3.87% year-on-year, while the intelligent controllers and solutions business saw a revenue drop of 37.43% to RMB 227 million. Conversely, the industrial operating system and related software services revenue increased by 25.80% to RMB 140 million [2]. - The company expects a recovery in profitability as it focuses on expanding its industrial software products and reducing lower-margin businesses [2]. Market Opportunities - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued guidelines for updating industrial operating systems and software, aiming to complete the replacement of 800,000 industrial operating systems and 2 million software units by 2027. This policy is expected to accelerate domestic substitution, benefiting the company's industrial software business [3]. - The company has signed large-scale application agreements with over 20 enterprises in sectors such as semiconductors and robotics, indicating strong demand for its industrial OS [3]. Product Development - The company launched an AI controller integrated with its industrial operating system and software, aimed at providing a comprehensive control platform for embodied robots. This product is expected to benefit from the ongoing trend of robot mass production [4]. - The development of the MaVIEW Robo software for intelligent robots is designed to be compatible with mainstream robotic arms and humanoid robot joints, targeting applications in sorting, painting, welding, and assembly [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 is RMB 0.13, RMB 0.23, and RMB 0.33, respectively. The company’s target market capitalization for 2026 is set at RMB 9.94 billion, with a revised target price of RMB 16.17, reflecting an increase in valuation multiples for both software and hardware businesses [5][19]. - The software business is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 102% from 2025 to 2026, significantly higher than the average of comparable companies [5][17].