BZ&EB周报：短期EB高位震荡 资料来源：隆众，国泰君安期货研究 纯苯投产仍然较多 下游投产进入尾声 | | | | | | | | | ABS | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 工厂 | 产能 | 工厂 | 产能 | 工厂 | 产能 | 工厂 | 产能 | | 2026年上半年 | 1月 | | | | | 上海赛科 | 12 | | | | | 2月 | | | | | | | | | | | 3月 | | | | | 河南网塑 | 20 | | | | | 4月 | | | 山东辉航 | 12 | | | | | | | 5月 | | | | | | | | | | | 6月 | | | | | | | | | | 2026年下半年 | 7月 | | | | | | | 高桥扩能 | 7.5 | | | 8月 | 华锦阿美 | 60 | | | 河南网塑 | 20 | 英力士 | 30 | | | 9月 | | | 广西骅桥 | 40 | 卫星石化 | 20 | | | | | | | | 浙 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [66]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong price support from factories, with solid methionine prices rebounding [1]. - The average prices for various chemical products are provided, showing fluctuations in pricing and profitability across different segments [2]. - The report identifies key listed companies in the chemical sector, including Wanhua Chemical, Baofeng Energy, and others [2]. Summary by Sections 2.1 Basic Chemical Index Trends - The report includes a weekly overview of the basic chemical index trends, indicating overall market movements [10]. 2.2 Polyurethane Sector - The average prices for pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI are reported as 17,543, 13,864, and 14,085 CNY/ton respectively, with changes of -171, -36, and +110 CNY/ton [2]. - The gross margins for these products are 4,171, 1,493, and 2,363 CNY/ton, reflecting changes of -332, -196, and -15 CNY/ton [2]. 2.3 Oil, Coal, and Olefin Sector - Average prices for ethane, propane, thermal coal, and naphtha are reported as 1,416, 4,349, 520, and 4,074 CNY/ton respectively, with increases of +147, +52, +0, and +171 CNY/ton [2]. - The average price for polyethylene is 7,162 CNY/ton, showing a rise of +62 CNY/ton [2]. - The theoretical profits for ethane cracking, CTO, and naphtha cracking for polyethylene production are reported as 694, 1,438, and -245 CNY/ton, with respective changes of -161, +41, and -127 CNY/ton [2]. 2.4 Coal Chemical Sector - Average prices for synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid are 2,184, 1,745, 3,962, and 2,579 CNY/ton respectively, with changes of -27, +5, +68, and -21 CNY/ton [2]. - The gross margins for these products are 199, 72, -92, and 445 CNY/ton, reflecting changes of -21, +1, +10, and -8 CNY/ton [2]. 2.5 Animal Nutrition Sector - Average prices for VA, VE, solid methionine, and liquid methionine are reported as 61.5, 55.1, 17.9, and 14.2 CNY/kg respectively, with changes of -0.7, +0.6, +0.3, and +0.0 CNY/kg [2].

Core Viewpoint - The oxalic acid industry is experiencing a recovery in demand due to improved operating rates in the pharmaceutical sector and a more favorable competitive landscape in the rare earth industry, following a significant decline in demand in 2020 due to regulatory impacts [1][8]. Group 1: Industry Overview - Oxalic acid is a widely used organic chemical raw material, significantly influenced by national macroeconomic policies [1][8]. - In 2024, China's oxalic acid production is projected to reach 785,700 tons, with a demand of 419,800 tons and a market size of 1.688 billion yuan; by 2025, production is expected to remain at 785,700 tons, while demand will increase to approximately 512,700 tons, resulting in a market size of about 1.912 billion yuan [1][9]. Group 2: Production and Supply - China accounts for over 85% of global oxalic acid production, with major producers including Hualu Hengsheng, Longxiang Industrial, Fengyuan Co., and Tongliao Jinmei [9]. - The primary production methods in China are the carbohydrate oxidation method and the sodium formate method, which together account for about 80% of total production [4]. Group 3: Industry Chain - The upstream of the oxalic acid industry includes raw materials such as starch, glucose, nitric acid, sulfuric acid, coal, caustic soda, vanadium pentoxide, nitrous esters, and carbon monoxide; the midstream involves oxalic acid production, while the downstream applications span pharmaceuticals, rare earths, fine chemicals, daily chemicals, metallurgy, and new energy [7][8]. Group 4: Trade Dynamics - China's oxalic acid export scale has been expanding, with Southeast Asian countries becoming the largest import region due to rapid chemical industry development; the European market's high environmental standards are driving exports of high-purity oxalic acid [10]. - In 2024, China's oxalic acid exports are expected to reach 278,100 tons, generating an export value of 958 million yuan, while imports will be minimal at 10 tons, valued at 300,000 yuan [10]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - The oxalic acid industry in China has developed a concentrated market structure dominated by leading companies such as Hualu Hengsheng and Fengyuan Co., with production capacity increasingly focused on these top players due to stringent environmental regulations [11][12]. - Fengyuan Co. has a total oxalic acid production capacity of 120,000 tons, while Hualu Hengsheng's acetic acid and derivatives production capacity is designed for 1.5 million tons [12][13]. Group 6: Industry Trends - The oxalic acid industry is entering a phase characterized by stable overall growth, high-end structural development, and low-carbon processes, driven by environmental pressures, industrial upgrades, and emerging applications, with a focus on new energy and electronic-grade demand as core growth areas [14][15].

Group 1 - The report presents the "Shenwan Hongyuan Top Ten Gold Stocks" for February 2026, reflecting the firm's market outlook and stock selection capabilities [1][10] - The previous gold stock combination from January 2026 achieved a return of 16.89%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 13.61 percentage points and the CSI 300 Index by 15.72 percentage points [7] - Since the inception of the gold stock initiative on March 28, 2017, the cumulative return has reached 486.47%, with the A-share combination up 361.41% and the Hong Kong stock combination up 1373.67% [7] Group 2 - The current market strategy indicates a continuation of the spring market trend, with a focus on cyclical sectors for alpha opportunities, while acknowledging increasing resistance to upward movement as profit effects spread [12] - Recommended sectors for investment include food and beverage, real estate, and cyclical sectors with both beta elasticity and alpha value [12] - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying bottom assets and suggests a rotation in market focus as the trading environment stabilizes [12] Group 3 - The top ten gold stocks for this period include Guizhou Moutai, Hualu Hengsheng, and Dier Laser, with a focus on their growth potential and market strategies [15][16] - Guizhou Moutai is expected to benefit from market reforms and increased consumer access ahead of the Spring Festival, while Hualu Hengsheng is positioned to capitalize on favorable industry policies [15][16] - Dier Laser is noted for its strong competitive position in the photovoltaic sector and potential growth in non-photovoltaic businesses [15][16] Group 4 - The report includes detailed performance metrics for each stock, highlighting their market capitalization, price changes, and excess returns compared to benchmarks [13][18] - For instance, Guizhou Moutai has a market cap of 175.44 billion RMB and is projected to see a net profit growth of 5.0% in 2026 [18] - The report also provides valuation and profit forecasts for the recommended stocks, indicating strong growth prospects for several companies [18]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report indicates that the "Top Ten Gold Stocks" from Shenwan Hongyuan for the period of January 1 to January 30, 2026, achieved a return of 16.89%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 Index by 13.61 and 15.72 percentage points respectively [8][19] - Since the first release of the gold stock list on March 28, 2017, the cumulative return of the gold stock portfolio has reached 486.47%, with the A-share portfolio up by 361.41% [8][19] - The strategy judgment for the upcoming month suggests a continuation of the spring market trend, with a focus on cyclical sectors for Alpha opportunities, while also indicating that upward resistance is increasing as the market transitions into a phase of sector rotation [8][16] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on the main catalysts for February and seizing opportunities in style rotation, particularly in the food and beverage and real estate sectors [16] - In the cyclical sector, it is advised to continue monitoring quality targets that exhibit both Beta elasticity and Alpha value [16] - The report highlights the "Iron Triangle" stocks: Guizhou Moutai, Hualu Hengsheng, and Dier Laser as top picks, alongside other recommended stocks including Huayou Cobalt, Longsheng Technology, Foster, New City Holdings, Dingjie Smart, Alibaba-W (Hong Kong), and Tencent Holdings (Hong Kong) [8][19] Group 3: Stock Performance and Recommendations - The top ten gold stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Hualu Hengsheng, Dier Laser, Huayou Cobalt, Longsheng Technology, Foster, New City Holdings, Dingjie Smart, Alibaba-W (Hong Kong), and Tencent Holdings (Hong Kong) [19][20] - Guizhou Moutai is noted for its market reform and potential for exceeding sales expectations during the upcoming Spring Festival [20] - Hualu Hengsheng is expected to benefit from domestic chemical industry policies that enhance market structure, while Dier Laser is recognized for its strong competitiveness in the photovoltaic sector [20][22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the chemical industry, highlighting the potential benefits from the "dual carbon" policy implementation [5]. Core Insights - The "dual carbon" policy is expected to significantly impact the chemical industry, with a focus on carbon emissions control becoming a rigid constraint during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [6][14]. - The report identifies that the attention towards "dual carbon" from provincial leaders has increased by 137% since September 2025, indicating a shift in focus towards carbon emissions as a critical performance metric [7][18]. - The chemical industry is anticipated to undergo structural changes, with high carbon intensity sectors facing supply constraints, while low-carbon leaders are expected to benefit from the transition [8][30]. Summary by Sections 1. "14th Five-Year Plan": Carbon Peak Closing Battle - Local carbon assessments may treat carbon emissions as an equally important rigid constraint [15]. - High carbon intensity sectors such as ammonia fertilizer, coal chemical, and chlorine-alkali are likely to face capacity constraints first [29][30]. 2. Petrochemical "Dual Carbon" Opportunities - The petrochemical sector is expected to undergo a transformation driven by the "dual carbon" goals, with a focus on optimizing supply and demand structures [38]. - Refining sector dynamics are shifting towards improved supply-demand balance due to stringent approval processes for new projects and the elimination of high-energy-consuming capacities [38]. 3. Basic Chemical "Dual Carbon" Opportunities - Coal chemical industry is projected to stabilize supply under carbon limits, driving quality improvements in the sector [3.1]. - Carbon fiber and fluorochemical sectors are expected to benefit from process optimization and green transitions [3.2][3.3]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three categories of leading companies: 1. Integrated leaders in the oil chemical sector with scale and efficiency advantages [8]. 2. Coal chemical leaders with advanced processes and low emissions [8]. 3. High-quality firms in fluorochemical and carbon fiber sectors that align with "dual carbon" goals [8].

= 宝 大 金 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：杨赐 t Fire 20 = 20 全面覆盖机器人、新能源、AI算力、反内卷等热门主题 热点直击 化工行业供给端吃紧、需求端加速复苏、政策反内卷,景气度 有望提升, 行业全面覆盖当前市场几大热门板块: AI算厂 新能源 网 内容 化工具工作 官等 516020 代码 沪市同类规模、流动性第一 双轮驱动·多元覆盖 2 近期,在AI链与涨价链的扩散下,化工板块或已跃 升为"周期复苏"与"成长新动能"双引擎驱动的综合 体. 并显现出右侧上升趋势。 图 细分化工指数全面覆盖人形机器人、新能源、反内 卷、AI算力等热门概念。 AI算力概念 反内巷概念 制冷剂/氟化工等 TDI/MDl等 巨化股份 3.68% 万华化学 10.22% 华鲁恒升 3.31% 多氟多 2.86% 机器人概念 新能源概念 PEEK材料等 六氟磷酸锂/磷酸铁锂等 天赐材料 4.68% 盐湖股份 6.34% 天赐材料 4.68% 金发科技 2.92% 注以上仪为代表性个股。 数据来源:Wind. 截至2025年12月31日。 龙头领航·全面布局 细分化工指数近5成仓位集中于大市值龙头 ...

截至2026年1月30日 11:20，中证细分化工产业主题指数下跌2.55%。成分股方面涨跌互现，恩捷股份领 涨4.25%，瑞丰新材上涨0.34%，宝丰能源上涨0.25%；华峰化学领跌，和邦生物、藏格矿业跟跌。 长期以来，传统化工行业因无序扩产导致产能严重过剩，成为压制盈利的核心症结。2025–2026年，供 给端迎来根本性变革：国家出台《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》，明确遏制盲目投 资、推动落后产能有序退出，各地配套政策同步落地。在此引导下，行业自发开启"反内卷"模式——企 业主动安排装置检修、收缩低效产能。 数据显示，截至2025年12月31日，中证细分化工产业主题指数前十大权重股分别为万华化学、盐湖股 份、藏格矿业、天赐材料、巨化股份、恒力石化、华鲁恒升、宝丰能源、云天化、金发科技，前十大权 重股合计占比45.31%。 化工ETF嘉实(159129)紧密跟踪中证细分化工产业主题指数，聚焦行业"反内卷"背景下新一轮景气周 期。 场外投资者还可以通过化工ETF联接基金(013527)关注化工板块投资机遇。 国海证券指出，展望2026年，中国化工行业推行反内卷，化工有望迎来景气上行周期 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Chemical and Building Materials Industry Industry Overview - The conference focused on the chemical and building materials industry, emphasizing the investment opportunities in midstream leading companies despite market adjustments [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Investment Strategy**: The company remains committed to recommending core midstream leading stocks, especially in the chemical sector, as they believe these stocks will perform well even during market adjustments [1]. 2. **Price Trends**: Some chemical products are experiencing price increases, but the current market is more about capital allocation rather than a price-driven rally [2]. 3. **Global Demand**: The demand for chemicals is increasingly global and diversified, making it a more stable investment compared to real estate, which has uncertain demand [2]. 4. **Supply Dynamics**: There has been a significant exit of overseas production capacity, particularly in Europe due to high energy prices and increased labor costs, which has strengthened domestic companies' confidence [2]. 5. **Capital Expenditure Trends**: Domestic capital expenditure in the basic chemical sector is expected to decline by approximately 16% year-on-year in 2024, with a smaller decline of 5-6% in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a downward trend [3]. 6. **Government Policies**: The government's focus on "anti-involution" reflects an awareness of low product prices, which may lead to adjustments in operating rates to balance supply and demand [3][4]. 7. **Carbon Neutrality Initiatives**: The upcoming carbon neutrality policies will significantly impact the chemical industry, with expectations for peak carbon emissions by 2030, which will drive changes in production practices [5]. 8. **Market Recovery**: The chemical market is expected to recover as supply contracts and demand stabilizes, with a focus on leading companies that dominate domestic production [6][7]. 9. **Stock Recommendations**: Specific companies such as Wanhua, Hualu, and others in the polyester and organic silicon sectors are highlighted for their potential growth in production capacity and profitability [8][9]. 10. **Profitability Projections**: The profitability of leading companies is projected to improve significantly, with expectations that earnings could return to historical midpoints, even if product prices do not reach previous highs [10][11]. 11. **Valuation Metrics**: Current valuations for leading companies are considered attractive, with expected price-to-earnings ratios around 15-17 times under neutral performance expectations [28]. Additional Important Insights - **Sector Performance**: The chemical sector has underperformed for several years, contrasting with the metals sector, which has seen price increases [6]. - **Investment Timing**: The timing of investments in leading companies is crucial, as they are expected to benefit from market recovery and improved pricing power [27]. - **Emerging Opportunities**: There are emerging opportunities in agricultural chemicals, particularly in phosphate and potash sectors, which are expected to see volume growth despite price stability [13][31]. - **Regulatory Changes**: Recent regulatory changes regarding PVC production may lead to increased capital expenditures and potential industry consolidation, optimizing supply-demand dynamics [14]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the chemical and building materials industry.

截至2026年1月30日10:02，中证石化产业指数下跌1.41%。成分股方面涨跌互现，东方盛虹、宝丰能源、华鲁恒升等领涨；华峰化学、和邦生物、盐湖股份 等领跌。石化ETF(159731)下跌1.42%。流动性方面，石化ETF盘中换手13.12%，成交1.98亿元，市场交投活跃。拉长时间看，截至1月29日，石化ETF近1周 日均成交2.63亿元。 石化ETF紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，数据显示，截至2025年12月31日，中证石化产业指数前十大权重股分别为万华化学、中国石油、中国石化、盐湖股 份、中国海油、藏格矿业、巨化股份、恒力石化、华鲁恒升、宝丰能源，前十大权重股合计占比56.73%。 从资金净流入方面来看，石化ETF近17天获得连续资金净流入，合计"吸金"11.86亿元。石化ETF最新份额达14.35亿份，最新规模达15.10亿元，创新高。 天风证券表示，化工行业2025年政策、资本开支拐点已现；"反内卷"的提出提供了对后续行业盈利改善、长期走向更健康发展的预期。 截至1月29日，石化ETF近2年净值上涨68.09%。从收益能力看，截至2026年1月29日，石化ETF自成立以来，最高单月回报为15.86% ...