【内容摘要】 1 月 30 日，资金面整体均衡平稳；债市偏强震荡；转债市场主要指数集体下跌， 转债个券多数下跌；各期限美债收益率走势分化，主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率普遍上 行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【《求是》杂志发表习近平总书记重要文章《走好中国特色金融发展之路，建设金融强国》】 2 月 1 日出版的第 3 期《求是》杂志发表国家主席习近平的重要文章《走好中国特色金融发展 之路，建设金融强国》。文章指出，建设金融强国，必须加快构建中国特色现代金融体系。一 是科学稳健的金融调控体系，二是结构合理的金融市场体系，三是分工协作的金融机构体系， 四是完备有效的金融监管体系，五是多样化专业性的金融产品和服务体系，六是自主可控、安 全高效的金融基础设施体系。 1 月制造业 PMI 为 49.3%；资金面整体均衡平稳，债市偏强震荡 （三）大宗商品 【国际原油期货价格转跌，国际天然气价格转涨】1 月 30 日，WTI 3 月原油期货收跌 0.32%， 报 65.21 美元/桶；布伦特 3 月原油期货收跌 0.03%，报 70.69 美元/桶；COMEX 黄金期货下跌 8.88%，报 4846.20 美元/ ...

Group 1: Domestic News - Premier Li Qiang emphasized the importance of combining short-term and long-term strategies to effectively promote development and improve people's livelihoods during his research in Shandong [2] - The Central Committee and the State Council approved the "Modern Capital Metropolitan Area Spatial Coordination Plan (2023-2035)", which aims to enhance the capital's functions and promote high-quality regional development [2] Group 2: International News - The ISM Manufacturing PMI for January in the U.S. rose significantly from 47.9 to 52.6, surpassing expectations of 48.5, indicating robust growth in new orders and production [5] - A trade agreement between the U.S. and India was reached, reducing U.S. tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 18%, with India agreeing to lower its tariffs on U.S. products [6] Group 3: Commodity Market - International crude oil prices fell, with WTI crude down 4.71% to $62.14 per barrel and Brent crude down 4.36% to $66.30 per barrel [7] Group 4: Financial Market - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 750 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 755 billion yuan due to 1,505 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing [8] - The money market remained stable, with the DR001 rate rising by 3.65 basis points to 1.364% and the DR007 rate falling by 10.2 basis points to 1.491% [9] Group 5: Bond Market - The bond market experienced fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 0.50 basis points to 1.8150% [9] - In the credit bond market, significant price deviations were noted, with "H0 Zhongjun 02" dropping over 72% and "H1 Bidi 03" dropping over 56% [11] Group 6: Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market saw a collective decline, with major indices falling by 2.39% to 2.31%, and a total trading volume of 850.83 billion yuan, down 81.89 billion yuan from the previous trading day [14]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook on the real estate industry, indicating a preference for stable and high-quality real estate companies [46]. Core Insights - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with a potential for continued policy easing to support recovery. The report highlights the importance of focusing on financially sound real estate firms [46]. - Recent data indicates a year-on-year increase in second-hand housing transactions by 11.7% in 14 cities, while new housing transactions have decreased by 18.1% [18][19]. - The report notes a significant decline in new housing transaction volumes, particularly in second-tier cities, which saw a 20% year-on-year drop [18]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The real estate sector experienced a decline of 2.2% in the week of January 26-30, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.3 percentage points [12]. - Trading volume for the week was 146.65 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.3% decrease compared to the previous week [12]. Basic Data - The total market capitalization of the real estate industry is 1,253.122 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of 1,218.269 billion yuan. The industry’s price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) stands at 61.8, compared to 14.2 for the CSI 300 [4]. Industry and Company Dynamics - Recent policy changes have relaxed the "three red lines" requirements for many real estate companies, allowing only those in distress to report financial metrics regularly [36]. - The report highlights significant company activities, including new financing and mergers, which may enhance competitive positioning in the market [39][40][41]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on several companies across different segments: 1. Development: China Resources Land (1109.HK), Longfor Group (0960.HK) 2. Commercial: China International Trade (600007.SH), New City Holdings (601155.SH) 3. Property Management: Poly Property (6049.HK), China Overseas Property (2669.HK) 4. Brokerage: Beike-W (2423.HK) [46][48].

致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 公司名稱: 龍湖集團控股有限公司 呈交日期: 2026年2月2日 I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00960 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 10,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.1 | HKD | | 1,000,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | | HKD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 10,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.1 | HKD | | 1,000,000,000 | 本月底法定/註冊股本總額： HKD 1,000,000,000 股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月 ...

报告具体指出，华润置地、中国海外发展、建发国际三家龙头2025年盈利或按年跌15%至20%，但利润 规模仍属可观；绿城中国、越秀地产、中海宏洋、保利置业、新城控股等有望录得正向利润，惟幅度微 薄；龙湖集团、城建发展或出现小幅亏损；滨江集团与中国金茂核心利润则有望稳中有增。展望2026 年，中金认为房企将维持审慎经营策略，后续视销售走势动态调整。 来源：观点地产网 观点网讯：2月2日，中金公司发布最新房地产行业研究报告，预计2025年覆盖房企整体盈利较2024年继 续明显下行，平均销售额同比下降20%，拿地强度仅37%，低于市场预期。 免责声明：本文内容与数据由观点根据公开信息整理，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。 ...

环球市场动态 沃 什 被 提 名 新 任 联 储 主 席 股 票 周五A股涨跌不一，板块走势分化； 港股高开低走，大型科技股普遍走 弱；欧洲股市上涨，市场情绪偏向 乐观；美股受特朗普提名沃什担任 美联储主席影响巨震，贵金属价格 暴跌。 $${\mathcal{H}}\;\;{\tilde{\chi}}\sqsubset\;I\;{\frac{\mathrm{{\hat{\mu}}}}{\left|\Phi\right|}}\;\;{\frac{\mathrm{{\hat{\mu}}}}{\left|\Phi\right|}}$$ 特朗普提名被视为立场相对鹰派的 沃什出任下一任美联储主席，上周 五美元大漲，贵金属近期凌厉涨势 逆转，黄金盘中创下 40 年来最大 跌幅，白银录得历史最大跌幅，抛 售潮波及更广泛的金属市场，伦敦 期铜大跌。 固 定 收 益 上周五美国国债收益率曲线趋陡。 特朗普提名沃什担任美联储主席。 亚洲债市相对偏弱，利差走宽 1-3 个基点。本周将有季度再融资公告 和非农数据公布。 产品及投资方案部 注：bp/bps=基点；pt/pts=百分点 中信证券财富管理 (香港) 免责声明请参考封底 2 ...

Core Insights - The core theme for Longfor in 2025 is "safety," reflecting its stable performance through debt peaks and ongoing investments in asset management to create a robust competitive advantage [1][2]. Group 1: Asset Management Strategy - Longfor's asset management strategy is a result of long-term commitment, establishing a comprehensive asset portfolio that includes six key sectors: rental apartments, vibrant commercial streets, industrial offices, service apartments, maternal and child hospitals, and health care for the elderly, with a total management scale nearing 30 billion yuan [2]. - The company has successfully launched its innovative mixed-use product "Huan Si," which has already been implemented in multiple cities, showcasing its adaptability to market demands [3][12]. Group 2: Market Positioning and Consumer Trends - The "Huan Si" project in Hefei attracted over 132,000 visitors and generated sales exceeding 3.3 million yuan within the first three days of opening, indicating strong market acceptance [4]. - The project targets contemporary young consumers who prefer local experiences over distant destinations, emphasizing the importance of accessible social spaces [5][6]. Group 3: Integration of Mixed-use Spaces - "Huan Si" integrates various functions, with approximately 70% of its space dedicated to dining and the remaining 30% to leisure and lifestyle offerings, creating a vibrant community atmosphere [10]. - The synergy between "Huan Si" and Longfor's rental apartment brand "Guan Yu" enhances the overall value proposition, allowing residents to seamlessly transition between living and socializing [13][16]. Group 4: Operational Excellence and Future Expansion - The operational model of "Huan Si" and "Guan Yu" creates a closed-loop system that drives consumer engagement and increases rental income, with reported rent increases of 300 to 500 yuan per unit post-launch [16][17]. - Longfor plans to expand the "Huan Si + Guan Yu" model to more cities, including Nanjing and Shenzhen, while continuously improving its asset management capabilities [19]. Group 5: Comprehensive Asset Management Capability - Longfor's asset management capabilities encompass a full spectrum from planning to operational execution, allowing for effective transformation of underperforming assets into value-generating entities [23]. - The company is exploring innovative combinations of different asset types, such as integrating rental apartments with healthcare services, to enhance operational efficiency and adaptability in a changing market [25][27].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [3] Core Views - The real estate market is entering a traditional off-season, with expectations for stronger policy support [3] - In January, the transaction volume of second-hand homes outperformed new homes, indicating a preference for second-hand properties due to better value [8] - The performance of the real estate sector has improved recently, driven by marginal improvements in transaction data and expectations for policy changes [8] Summary by Sections Recent Industry Performance - Over the past 12 months, the relative return compared to the CSI 300 index has been -9%, while the absolute return has been +15% [4] - In January, the transaction volume of second-hand homes in core cities showed significant year-on-year growth, while new home transactions remained weak [5][6] Key City Insights - Beijing: Second-hand home transactions increased by 397% year-on-year, while new home transactions rose by 565% [5] - Shanghai: Second-hand home transactions increased by 806% year-on-year, while new home transactions rose by 525% [6] - Shenzhen: Second-hand home transactions increased by 15% year-on-year, but new home transactions decreased by 64% [6] National Trends - In 30 major cities, the transaction area for new homes increased by 109% year-on-year, but decreased by 26.66% when adjusted for the Spring Festival [7] - The transaction area for second-hand homes increased by 309% year-on-year, with a 12% increase in cumulative transactions for January [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading real estate companies with land reserves in core cities and high-end improvement products, such as Poly Developments [8] - It also recommends head intermediary firms like I Love My Home, which are expected to benefit from the increasing share of second-hand home transactions [8]

导 读 1、土地成交规模处于季节性低位 2、百强门槛均较同期下滑 3、投资TOP100拿地金额同比降幅近五成 4、供地"窗口期"开启后土拍热度有望回升 | | 金地集团 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 12 | 保利发展 | 22.7 | | 14 | 龙湖集团 | 20. 4 | | 15 | 青铁置业 | 20. 3 20 | | 16 | 和润达开发建设 | 18.9 | | 17 | 四川城更 | 18.5 | | 18 22 11 | 浙江博策 | 17.520 | | 19 | 如东新天顺 | 16.9 | | 19 | 扬州城建 | 16.9 | | 219 | 滨海城更 | 16 3 | | 22 | 汇龙地产 | 15.4 | | 23 | 宜兴经开投资 | 15.3 | | -74 | 湖南大雷投资 | 15 7 | | 25 | 阜宁城建 | 14.7 | | 26 | 元垄地产 | 14.6 | | -27 | 锦诚汇龙房地产 | 14.1 | | 28 | 金洲房地产 | 13.2 | | 29 | 如东荣能实业 | 12.8 | | CF30 | 信阳国信发展 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the festive atmosphere in Beijing as various landmarks, including Longhu Xingyuehui, are adorned with vibrant New Year decorations, attracting many visitors [2][12] - The Modekou Historical and Cultural District features twelve unique light displays that create a stunning visual experience, transforming the street into a "flowing river of lights" [4] - Young people's aesthetic preferences are reflected in popular street installations like the "Lucky Big Orange," which has become a favorite photo spot [5] Group 2 - The Qianmen area is also illuminated with red lanterns and decorative lights, creating a lively environment that draws both locals and tourists [7][8] - Beijing Fang showcases interactive light displays, such as a golden-red koi fish that moves with the light, enhancing the visitor experience [10] - Longhu Xingyuehui features a striking 2-meter tall giant lantern and intricate fish lanterns, contributing to a vibrant dining scene as restaurants become crowded with visitors [12][14]