Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [7] Core Insights - Geopolitical fluctuations are driving safe-haven demand, with a focus on upcoming economic data and adjustments to the Bloomberg Commodity Index. Short-term gold and silver may experience wide fluctuations, but it is recommended to increase equity allocation during corrections. The recent increase in metal futures margin requirements by the CME has led to significant price volatility in gold and silver, with short-term forced liquidation sentiment easing. The outlook for Q1 2026 suggests that the inflation and liquidity resonance window remains unchanged, with silver leading the continued upward trend in precious metals [3][4][5] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Geopolitical tensions are creating a demand for safe-haven assets, while upcoming economic data and the Bloomberg Commodity Index adjustments are being monitored. Short-term fluctuations in gold and silver prices are expected, but equity allocation should be increased during corrections. The recent margin hikes by the CME have caused significant price volatility, and the forced liquidation sentiment has eased. The inflation and liquidity resonance window is expected to remain unchanged through Q1 2026, with silver leading the upward trend in precious metals [3][4] Industrial Metals - The overall performance of industrial metals remains strong, driven by increased expectations of interest rate cuts and copper accumulation in the U.S. Recent data shows a week-on-week increase in copper inventory by 5.73% and a year-on-year increase of 86.11%. Aluminum inventory also saw a week-on-week increase of 2.93% and a year-on-year increase of 1.96%. The core logic for the strength in copper and aluminum prices is linked to interest rate cut expectations and U.S. copper accumulation [4][5] Energy and Minor Metals - Lithium is expected to see a supply inflection point and a new demand cycle. The price of lithium carbonate futures has surpassed 120,000 yuan/ton, reaching a new high. The recovery in rare earth demand is anticipated to initiate a new upward trend, with significant improvements in the performance of rare earth companies. Tungsten prices are also on the rise, with a long-term bullish outlook. The cobalt market is expected to face shortages from 2025 to 2027, with prices likely to rise due to supply constraints [5][6]

更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 近期金属市场的供应端出现了一些扰动和变化,尤其是贵金属、能源金属和工业 金属领域。贵金属方面,黄金和白银在节前出现了波动,经过一段时间的拉涨后 进入晨荡趋势。能源金属如碳酸锂价格在底部反弹后也出现了震荡。工业金属方 面,厄瓜多尔的铜供应可能推迟,加剧了铜供应端的不稳定性。同时铝价创下新 高,上周一度突破 23,000元/吨,目前在 22,900元/吨水平。此外,小金属如锡 & 调研纪录 争 狗 - · 金属板块受供需双重因素驱动,进入上行周期。供给端受资本开支、产能 周期及地缘政治影响,供应受限;需求端则由新能源、AI 数据中心等新 兴产业主导,改变了传统地产需求格局。 贵金属市场波动性大,白银受逼仓影响剧烈震荡,但供需缺口依然存在; ● 黄金受白银及其他贵金属影响,同时关注美联储降息预期。全球央行购金 及地缘政治风险支撑长期上涨动力。 能源金属市场经历调整,碳酸锂价格波动显著,但能源转型长期需求增长 ● 依然稳固。镍市场受益于印尼政策限制,供给端扰动增加,下游接受度高, 2026 年镍价难大幅下跌。 · 基本金属方面,铜受智利和厄瓜多尔供应扰动影响, ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - Demand expectations for aluminum have been raised, leading to a strong breakthrough in aluminum prices [3] - Copper prices are experiencing high-level fluctuations after breaking historical highs, with significant inventory accumulation in domestic markets [5] - The lithium sector is entering an upward price cycle driven by strong demand, despite being in the off-season [79] - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising due to tight raw material supply [91] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - China's manufacturing PMI for December exceeded expectations at 50.1, compared to the forecast of 49.2 [8] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending December 27 were lower than expected at 199,000 [8] Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 0.41% [11] - The sector's PE_TTM is 28.46, while the PB_LF is 3.51, indicating a premium over the broader market [20] Copper - London copper prices increased by 2.39%, while Shanghai copper prices decreased by 0.49% [25] - Domestic copper inventory saw a significant increase of 30.11%, while London copper inventory decreased by 7.45% [25] Aluminum - London aluminum prices rose by 1.79%, and Shanghai aluminum prices increased by 1.59% [37] - The profit margin for aluminum enterprises increased by 7.18% to 6,862 CNY/ton [37] Lithium - Carbonate lithium prices rose by 5.90% to 118,500 CNY/ton, while lithium spodumene prices increased by 3.89% to 1,548 USD/ton [79] - The lithium sector is expected to see a reversal in supply-demand dynamics, leading to a price increase [79] Cobalt - MB cobalt prices rose by 1.53% to 24.88 USD/pound, and domestic cobalt prices increased by 10.11% to 490,000 CNY/ton [91] - Domestic smelting margins for cobalt increased by 74.85% to 96,700 CNY/ton [91]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略月报】 股息率年关盘点 ——多行业联合红利资产 12 月报 策略研究 策略月报 2026 年 01 月 04 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：姚佩 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522120004 证券分析师：吴一凡 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 证券分析师：欧阳予 邮箱：ouyangyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520070001 证券分析师：韩星雨 邮箱：hanxingyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525050001 证券分析师：单戈 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522110001 证券分析师：马野 邮箱：maye@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040003 相关研究报告 《【华创策略】杠杆&ETF 资金分化趋势逆转—— 流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报》 2025-12-01 《【华 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that industrial metal prices have shown a significant upward trend, particularly for copper and tin, which are constrained by supply issues. Prices have gradually increased throughout the year, with copper reaching a historical high [14][15][39]. - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metal sector has been impressive, with a year-to-date weighted average increase of 100.46% as of December 11, 2025, outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 [26][33]. - The macroeconomic environment is expected to remain favorable for industrial metals in 2026, with continued liquidity support from the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and domestic policies aimed at boosting demand [39][10]. Group 2 - The report identifies AI and energy storage as significant drivers of marginal demand growth for copper and aluminum, with substantial capital expenditures from major cloud service providers expected to continue [45][58]. - For copper, the demand from AI data centers is projected to add approximately 26.8 thousand tons to total copper demand in 2026, driven by increased infrastructure investments [58][59]. - In the aluminum sector, while demand growth is anticipated, it is expected to be more limited compared to copper, with projected aluminum demand from data centers reaching around 78 thousand tons globally by 2026 [64][66]. Group 3 - The supply side for copper remains constrained due to ongoing production cuts and delays in new mining projects, which are expected to exacerbate structural shortages in the market [42][43]. - The aluminum market is facing a rigid supply ceiling domestically, with limited growth in production capacity and risks of shutdowns due to high electricity costs [43][44]. - The report recommends several companies with strong growth potential in the copper sector, including Shengtun Mining, Zangge Mining, and Zijin Mining, as well as companies in the aluminum sector like China Aluminum and China Hongqiao [11][39].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the aluminum industry, particularly the electrolytic aluminum sector, and its investment strategy for 2026, highlighting the impact of various macroeconomic and geopolitical factors on aluminum supply and demand [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Supply Constraints**: China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity is limited by dual carbon policies, power shortages, and technological constraints, leading to a long-term tight supply situation that supports high aluminum prices [1][2]. - **Global Manufacturing Recovery**: The global manufacturing PMI has remained above 50 for four consecutive months, indicating a recovery in manufacturing activity, particularly in Europe and emerging industrialized countries, which is expected to drive aluminum demand [4]. - **Geopolitical Risks**: Increased geopolitical risks and environmental uncertainties are raising the demand for strategic resource reserves, leading to more conservative mineral investments and stricter export controls, which further exacerbate supply uncertainties [1][5]. - **Interest Rate Impact**: A declining interest rate cycle typically boosts industrial metal prices. With low global inventory levels, a sustained decline in interest rates is expected to stimulate restocking, positively impacting aluminum prices [6]. - **North American Supply Issues**: Energy supply constraints in North America, exacerbated by AI development, may lead to further production cuts in the U.S. and Canada, affecting global supply-demand balance [12]. - **Recycling Challenges**: Progress in aluminum recycling is slow, with reduced subsidies for scrap aluminum and a lack of significant increases in scrap supply, maintaining a tight balance in domestic and international supply [15]. Additional Important Insights - **Historical Price Comparisons**: The aluminum market shows similarities to historical salt price trends, where both commodities have abundant reserves but face price pressures due to technological and regulatory constraints [3]. - **Future Demand Trends**: The demand for industrial metals, including aluminum, is expected to steadily increase in the coming years, driven by developments in AI, renewable energy, and infrastructure upgrades [4][8]. - **Valuation and Investment Outlook**: The aluminum sector has undergone debt repair, with an average dividend yield of 5%, making it attractive for long-term investments. The sector's valuation is currently around 8-9 times earnings, with potential to rise to 13-15 times [16][18]. - **Company Recommendations**: For companies with strong resilience, recommendations include Tianshan, Hongchuang, and Nanshan Aluminum, which are noted for their cost advantages and integrated operations [20]. For companies with flexibility, Yun Aluminum and Zhongfu are highlighted due to their benefits from marginal changes [19]. Conclusion - The aluminum industry is poised for growth due to a combination of supply constraints, recovering demand, and favorable macroeconomic conditions. Investment opportunities exist in companies with strong fundamentals and strategic positioning within the sector [21][22].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Precious Metals and Industrial Metals**: The report covers the silver and gold markets, along with copper and aluminum sectors, providing insights into price forecasts and investment opportunities. Silver Market Insights - **Short-term Risks**: The silver market faces short-term correction risks due to margin hikes, which may lead to price declines. However, the long-term outlook remains positive with a projected average price of 16,000 RMB/kg for next year [1][2]. - **Historical Context**: The volatility in silver prices is linked to past events, such as the 2011 margin hikes that led to significant price drops. Current conditions suggest a potential 20% correction from peak prices [2][4]. - **Valuation**: Companies like Shengda Resources and Yuguang Gold Lead are considered undervalued, with P/E ratios around 10 or lower, presenting good investment opportunities post-correction [4]. Gold Market Dynamics - **Market Drivers**: The gold market is influenced by central bank purchases and ETF investments, with stablecoin issuers like Tether significantly increasing their gold reserves to 104 tons, which is expected to support ongoing demand [5][6]. - **Stock Performance**: Gold stocks have underperformed relative to commodity prices due to interest rate expectations. Current valuations are considered low, with an average P/E of 12 times at gold prices around 1,000 USD/oz, indicating a buying opportunity [7]. Copper Price Forecast - **Price Expectations**: Copper prices are expected to rise, with an average forecast of 11,500 to 12,000 USD per ton, potentially reaching highs of 13,000 to 15,000 USD due to factors like interest rate cuts and supply constraints [8][9]. - **Beneficiary Companies**: Companies such as Minmetals Resources, Zijin Mining, and Luoyang Molybdenum are expected to benefit from rising copper prices due to significant production increases and strong silver by-product yields [9][10]. Aluminum Market Outlook - **Short-term Volatility**: The aluminum market may experience short-term fluctuations, but the long-term outlook is positive, with prices expected to stabilize above 21,500 RMB/ton, potentially reaching 24,000-25,000 RMB/ton [11][13]. - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies like Shenhuo Co., Yunnan Aluminum, and Zhongfu Industrial are highlighted as key players that will benefit from rising aluminum prices and improving EPS [19][20]. Cost Factors and Profitability - **Cost Analysis**: The cost of alumina is expected to decrease, which will enhance profitability across the industry. The projected drop in alumina prices to 2,600-2,700 RMB/ton could increase profits by approximately 1,000 RMB per ton [18]. - **Long-term Investment Strategy**: The aluminum sector is viewed as a strong investment opportunity due to low valuations and expected improvements in profitability, with a focus on companies that can provide dividends and have strong growth potential [17]. Additional Recommendations - **Stock Picks**: Specific companies recommended for investment include Yunnan Aluminum, Zhongfu Industrial, Shenhuo Co., and Tianshan Aluminum, with a focus on their growth potential and market positioning [20][21]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the precious metals and industrial metals sectors.

Core Viewpoint - The electrolytic aluminum market has entered a strong upward trend since 2025, driven by tight supply-demand dynamics, with domestic and international prices reaching new highs [1][3]. Supply Side Summary - The domestic electrolytic aluminum industry has entered a "stock replacement" era, with a production capacity ceiling set at approximately 45 million tons due to dual constraints from industry consensus on "anti-involution" and "carbon peak" policies [3]. - It is estimated that net new production capacity in China will only increase by 200,000 tons by 2025, with a total foreseeable increase of only 560,000 tons, making it difficult to effectively supplement market supply [3]. - Although countries like India and Indonesia are advancing new capacity construction, factors such as unstable power supply will hinder full production capacity by 2026, exacerbating the tight supply situation in the domestic market [3]. Demand Side Summary - Structural upgrades in demand are providing sustained upward momentum for electrolytic aluminum prices, with traditional construction sector demand stabilizing while the new energy sector becomes the core growth engine [5]. - The demand from the new energy vehicle industry continues to grow, with increased aluminum usage per vehicle due to lightweight trends; the acceleration of ultra-high voltage construction is significantly boosting demand for aluminum cables [5]. - The "aluminum replacing copper" trend in the power and electronics sectors is further expanding the application space for electrolytic aluminum, with projected demand growth rates of 2.1% in 2025 and 2026, outpacing supply growth of 1.6% [5]. Cost Side Summary - The release of cost dividends is a significant driver of profit expansion in the electrolytic aluminum industry, with key raw material prices, such as alumina, experiencing a decline due to ample supply [6]. - For instance, the domestic alumina futures price fell below 2,500 yuan/ton, nearly halving from its peak a year ago, contributing to an expanding profit margin for the industry [6]. - Major companies are showing stable profitability and improved cash flow, with China Aluminum leading the industry with a net profit of 10.872 billion yuan, a historical high for the same period, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.65% [6]. Industry Outlook - The tight supply-demand balance in the electrolytic aluminum industry is expected to persist, with demand growth in the new energy sector being a core driver for long-term industry development [6]. - Leading companies are likely to benefit from their production capacity advantages, industry chain layout, and cost control capabilities during this high-profit cycle [6]. - The acceleration of the "aluminum replacing copper" process and gradual recovery in overseas markets will further open up growth space for the electrolytic aluminum industry, with increasing industry concentration expected during the stock replacement phase [6].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Zhongfu Industrial's stock price decreased by 1.79% to 7.66 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 30.701 billion CNY as of the report date [1] - Zhongfu Industrial, established on January 28, 1997, and listed on June 26, 2002, is primarily engaged in coal mining, thermal power generation, electrolytic aluminum, and deep processing of aluminum products [1] - The revenue composition of Zhongfu Industrial is as follows: non-ferrous metals account for 94.76%, electricity for 9.96%, coal for 2.71%, and other businesses for 0.47% [1] Group 2 - Minsheng Jianyin Fund holds a significant position in Zhongfu Industrial through its fund Minsheng Jianyin Cycle Optimal Mixed A (011888), which held 412,200 shares, representing 3.81% of the fund's net value [2] - The fund has experienced a year-to-date return of 67.56%, ranking 488 out of 8,087 in its category, and a one-year return of 65.26%, ranking 454 out of 8,085 [2] - The fund manager, Rui Dingkun, has been in position for 4 years and 26 days, with the fund's total asset size at 492 million CNY [2]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **metal industry**, focusing on precious metals, lithium carbonate, industrial base metals, and steel. Precious Metals - The outlook for precious metals remains optimistic due to factors such as liquidity turning points, geopolitical risks, de-dollarization trends, and central banks' ongoing gold purchases. [4] - Silver, driven by its industrial properties and demand from photovoltaic new energy and AI, is expected to see strong support. Leading companies in this sector are currently undervalued, presenting opportunities for price recovery and allocation. [4] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices have surged recently due to increased demand expectations and delayed supply recovery. [5] - Mid-term demand for lithium carbonate is expected to grow due to energy storage needs, while supply growth remains limited, leading to a positive long-term price outlook. [5] Industrial Base Metals - The future outlook for industrial base metals is optimistic, supported by declining interest rates, recovery in traditional demand, and new demand from AI. [6] - Copper supply is particularly tight, with potential strikes in Chile and encouragement from China's National Development and Reform Commission for mergers in the smelting industry, which may tighten supply further. [7] - The aluminum market is experiencing high prices despite being in the off-season, with a copper-aluminum ratio reaching 4.4. Supply is weaker than expected, and the introduction of copper-free air conditioning systems may further expand aluminum applications. [12] Inventory and Supply Risks - Non-US regions are experiencing low inventory days due to a siphoning effect towards the US, which may lead to risks of soft and hard squeezes in these areas. [8] Steel Industry - The steel industry is currently at a bottoming phase, presenting a good opportunity for gradual investment, especially in leading companies whose valuations have dropped to around 10 times earnings. [18] - Capital expenditures for these companies are expected to decrease next year, with increased dividends enhancing their attractiveness. [18] - Upcoming supply-side reform measures and the implementation of the "Steel Industry Normative Conditions" are anticipated to have a substantial impact on the market. [19] Rare Earth Market - The rare earth market is experiencing mixed performance, with light rare earth prices rising while medium and heavy rare earth prices are declining. [14] - Short-term price adjustments are expected, but long-term demand from strategic sectors like electric vehicles and wind power is likely to support price increases. [17] Investment Recommendations - Investors are encouraged to focus on sectors with low valuations and high dividend yields, particularly in copper, aluminum, tin, and tungsten. [16] - Recommended stocks include those with high dividend yields and potential growth, such as Yun Aluminum, Zhongfu Industrial, and China Hongqiao. [16] Overall Market Sentiment - The overall sentiment for the metal sector is positive, with expectations of a super cycle driven by macroeconomic factors, liquidity, rigid supply, and recovering demand. [20]