Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Hong Kong 300 Real Estate Index has shown significant growth, with a 5.78% increase over the past month, 19.41% over the past three months, and 15.61% year-to-date [1] Group 1: Index Performance - The China Securities Hong Kong 300 Real Estate Index is currently at 1031.30 points [1] - The index is based on a sample of securities classified according to the China Securities industry classification standards, reflecting the overall performance of different sectors in the Hong Kong market [1] - The index was established on December 31, 2004, with a base point of 1000.0 [1] Group 2: Index Holdings - The top ten weighted stocks in the index are: - Sun Hung Kai Properties (14.82%) - Beike-W (13.06%) - Link REIT (12.08%) - China Resources Land (11.16%) - Cheung Kong Holdings (8.0%) - China Overseas Land & Investment (6.46%) - Wharf Real Estate Investment (4.83%) - Henderson Land Development (4.62%) - Longfor Group (2.97%) - China Resources Mixc Lifestyle (2.85%) [1] - The index is fully composed of stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a 100.00% market share [1] Group 3: Industry Composition - The industry composition of the index holdings is as follows: - Real estate development: 57.84% - Real estate services: 21.75% - Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs): 12.97% - Real estate management: 7.45% [2] - The index sample is adjusted biannually, with adjustments occurring on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December [2] - Weight factors are generally fixed until the next scheduled adjustment, with temporary adjustments made in response to changes in the underlying index [2]

房地产行业 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 7 月 8 日 强于大市 房地产行业第 27 周周报（2025 年 6 月 28 日-2025 年 7 月 4 日） 本周新房成交同比由负转正；建议关注 7 月中旬开始的地产 板块机会 新房成交面积环比由正转负，同比由负转正。二手房成交面积同环比降幅均扩大。新房库存面积 与去化周期同环比均下降。 核心观点 投资建议： 相关研究报告 《70 城房价环比跌幅持续收窄，一线新房房价止 跌》（2024/12/17） 《"旧改为主、收储为辅"贯穿 2025 年地产行业主 线 》（2024/12/14） 《住房交易税收政策调整，体现政府让利意愿及稳 定房地产市场的决心 》（2024/11/14） 《房贷利率机制调整超预期，沪深广松绑行政政 策；看好地产板块行情延续！》（2024/09/30） 《央行拟于近期降准并引导 LPR 及存量房贷利率 下降；北京拟适时取消普宅与非普分类标准》 （2024/09/27） 《政治局会议首提"促进房地产市场止跌回稳"，地 产拐点已至》（2024/09/26） 《房地产行业 2024 年中期策略——下半年地产空 间在哪?》（2024 ...

Market Overview - In the week from June 30 to July 6, 2025, Kunming's real estate market experienced a decline in transaction volume while prices increased, attributed to bulk transactions and the registration of new projects [1] - A total of 4 projects supplied 58,900 square meters to the market, a 67% decrease week-on-week, while transactions reached approximately 118,000 square meters, down 10% from the previous week [1] - The average transaction price was about 10,949 yuan per square meter, showing a slight increase of 5% week-on-week [1] Key Projects - Anjuke Group's Baisha Ideal Living project led the market with significant bulk transactions, achieving a sales amount of approximately 429 million yuan and 610 units sold at an average price of about 8,098 yuan per square meter [1] - Newly launched projects such as Longhu Fengcui and Xuhui Plaza Platinum Forest ranked among the top three, with Longhu Fengcui achieving a sales amount of about 82 million yuan and an average price exceeding 21,282 yuan per square meter [2][6] - Xuhui Plaza Platinum Forest sold 26 units at an average price of approximately 13,631 yuan per square meter, catering to both first-time and upgrading buyers [2][4] Market Segmentation - The market continues to show polarization, with high-end properties like Bangtai Guanyun and China Overseas Huide Li selling well at average prices of 18,697 yuan per square meter and 17,466 yuan per square meter, respectively [6] - Conversely, affordable properties such as Bangtai Yuejiuzhang Caiyun and Shichuang Yuhua Zhou are favored by first-time buyers, with average prices around 8,226 yuan per square meter and 5,209 yuan per square meter, respectively [6] Land Supply and Development - No land was supplied or transacted in Kunming's main urban area during the past week [7] - Bangtai Group's new project, Bangtai Yingyue, launched recently, offering 180 units with an average price between 8,800 and 9,200 yuan per square meter, achieving a sales rate of 43% [8][10] - The project features low-density buildings with high living comfort, including a planned 2,250 square meter sunken courtyard clubhouse [10] Idle Land Issues - Two parcels of land, including the planned Kunming Paramount Theme Park and Dianchi Excellent Qingcui commercial land, have been listed as idle, indicating potential delays in project development [12][14] - The Paramount Theme Park site, covering approximately 251,286.42 square meters, has been idle since August 31, 2023, due to government and corporate reasons [13][14]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - The introduction of "current housing sales" policies in cities like Jingmen and Xinyang indicates a shift towards promoting immediate sales of newly developed properties, with a focus on improving market stability [1][10][12] - The trend of increasing current housing sales is driven by buyer preferences for tangible products and the accumulation of inventory due to slower investment growth, particularly in lower-tier cities [2][12] - The overall market sentiment is improving, with expectations of policy support to stabilize the real estate sector, suggesting a potential turning point in the industry [4][14] Summary by Sections 1. Current Housing Sales Policy - Jingmen is the only pilot city in Hubei for current housing sales, with policies requiring new land sales to prioritize this sales model starting January 1, 2026 [1][12] - The policy aims to enhance market stability and reduce inventory, with a notable decrease in available inventory and a reduction in the de-stocking cycle [1][12] 2. Market Overview - New housing transactions for the week totaled 3.82 million square meters, showing a year-on-year decline of 9.65%, but an improvement of 1.33 percentage points compared to the previous month [3][17] - The second-hand housing market saw transactions of 1.75 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 10.38%, indicating a weakening trend [3][26] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on non-state-owned enterprises benefiting from debt relief and policy support, as well as leading companies with product advantages and regional firms with improving market shares [4][14] - Specific companies recommended for investment include Longfor Group, China Overseas Development, and Poly Developments, among others [4][14][15]

Core Insights - Chengdu's real estate market has achieved the highest residential transaction volume in China for the first half of 2025, with a total of 17.6 million units sold, marking 12 consecutive years of leading the national market [1][2][8] Sales Performance - In the first half of 2025, Chengdu's new residential sales reached approximately 53,000 units, with an average price of 19,630 yuan/m² and an average total price of 2.58 million yuan per unit [2] - The second-hand residential market saw 123,000 units sold, a year-on-year increase of 19.8%, with a total area of 1.186 million m² sold, reflecting a 19.3% increase [9] Price Trends - The average price of new homes in the Jinjiang District surged by 21.7% year-on-year, reaching 39,899 yuan/m², while the average total price increased by 248,000 yuan to 7.654 million yuan [2] - The average land price for residential land transactions in Chengdu rose significantly, with the average price in the "5+2" area reaching 19,459 yuan/m², a 10.6% increase year-on-year [6] Market Dynamics - The supply of new residential properties decreased by 23% year-on-year, while the transaction area increased by 7.5%, indicating a tightening market [2] - The top 30 real estate companies in Chengdu reported a total sales volume of 993.8 billion yuan, with state-owned enterprises dominating the market [7] Buyer Preferences - There is a notable trend among buyers towards larger homes at lower prices, with 70% of second-hand transactions involving properties under 150 million yuan [9] - The demographic of homebuyers is shifting younger, with over 70% of buyers being from the post-80s and post-90s generations [9]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View On July 4, the liquidity was abundant and loose. The yields of the bond market showed a divergent trend, with the medium - and short - end yields continuing to decline and the long - end yields rising slightly. The convertible bond market also showed divergence following the equity market, and most convertible bond issues declined. The 10 - year government bond yields of major European economies also showed a divergent trend [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News - **Domestic News**: Minister of Finance Lan Fuan attended the 2025 BRICS Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting, expressing China's willingness to deepen BRICS financial cooperation. The New Development Bank of BRICS approved Colombia and Uzbekistan as new members. The central bank solicited public opinions on the revised business rules of the RMB Cross - border Payment System. The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges revised the ETF risk management business guidelines, which will take effect on August 1, 2025 [3][4]. - **International News**: Elon Musk announced the establishment of the "American Party" on July 5, aiming to "avoid US bankruptcy" and indicating participation in the 2026 mid - term elections. This marked the breakdown of his political alliance with Trump [6]. - **Commodities**: On July 4, Brent crude oil futures for September delivery fell 0.72% to $68.30 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 2.24%. Spot gold rose 0.33% to $3337.15 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 1.92%. NYMEX natural gas prices fell 0.53% to $3.387 per ounce [7]. 3.2 Liquidity - **Open Market Operations**: On July 4, the central bank conducted 34 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%. With 525.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal of funds was 491.9 billion yuan [9][10]. - **Funding Rates**: On July 4, the liquidity was abundant and loose, and major repurchase rates continued to decline. DR001 dropped 0.10bp to 1.314%, and DR007 dropped 4.52bp to 1.422%. Various inter - bank lending and repurchase rates also showed downward trends [11][12]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Rate Bonds**: - **Yield Trends**: On July 4, the trends of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds diverged. The medium - and short - end yields continued to decline due to loose liquidity, while the long - end yields rose slightly due to the stock - bond seesaw effect. For example, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 rose 0.15bp to 1.6410% [14]. - **Bond Tenders**: Information on the tendering of several bonds such as 25进出清发02, 25附息国债07(续2), and 25附息国债11(续2) was provided, including issuance scale, winning yields, and multiples [16]. - **Credit Bonds**: - **Secondary - Market Transaction Anomalies**: On July 4, the transaction prices of two industrial bonds deviated by more than 10%, with "H1碧地01" falling more than 66% and "H0中骏02" falling more than 19% [16]. - **Credit Bond Events**: Companies such as Sunac China, Fantasia Holdings, Vanke, and Yida China announced matters related to share issuance, debt restructuring, guarantee balances, and loan defaults [17]. - **Convertible Bonds**: - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices**: On July 4, the three major A - share indices showed different trends, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.32%, and the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index falling 0.25% and 0.36% respectively. The convertible bond market also showed divergence, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index and Shanghai Convertible Bond Index rising 0.15% and 0.24% respectively, and the Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index falling 0.01%. Most convertible bond issues declined [18]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking**: Some convertible bonds such as Jingao Convertible Bond proposed to lower the conversion price, and some such as Jingduan Convertible Bond announced early redemptions [24]. - **Overseas Bond Markets**: - **US Bond Market**: The US bond market was closed on July 4 due to the Independence Day holiday [21]. - **European Bond Market**: On July 4, the 10 - year government bond yields of major European economies showed a divergent trend. Germany's 10 - year government bond yield dropped 1bp to 2.57%, France's rose 1bp, and those of Italy and the UK remained unchanged, while Spain's dropped 1bp [22]. - **Price Changes of Chinese - Issued US - Dollar Bonds**: The daily price changes of some Chinese - issued US - dollar bonds as of July 4 were provided, including information on credit entities, bond codes, bond balances, and yields [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the US stock market is "Underperform" and maintained [4] - The investment rating for the US dollar bond market is "Underperform" [1] 2. Core Views - The passage of the "Big Beautiful Act" will increase the US medium - and long - term fiscal pressure. The act, a tax reform bill, includes reducing corporate taxes, cutting social welfare, canceling clean energy subsidies, and increasing the national debt scale. It may further expand the US fiscal pressure [1] - The June non - farm payroll data shows resilience, but structural issues need attention. The labor market remains resilient overall, but the increase in government employment is unsustainable, and the resilience of the non - farm data is still to be observed, with a risk of weakening in the future [2] - The derivatives market maintains the expectation of two interest rate cuts in September and December. The strong non - farm payroll data has increased the possibility of the Fed continuing to wait and see and reduced the probability of an interest rate cut this month [2] - The US Treasury bond interest rate first decreased and then increased, and the term spread narrowed slightly. It is recommended that investors mainly allocate short - and medium - term US Treasury bonds, preferably 2 - 5 - year varieties, and be cautious about allocating long - duration bonds [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 US Treasury Bond Benchmark Interest Rate - The US Treasury bond interest rate curve first decreased and then increased in the past two weeks. The 1 - year/2 - year/3 - year/5 - year/10 - year/20 - year/30 - year US Treasury bond interest rates changed by - 3/-6/-5/-4/-3/-2/-2bp respectively. The 10Y and 2Y yields were 4.35% and 3.88% respectively, and the 10Y - 2Y spread narrowed slightly to 47bp [3] 3.2 US Macroeconomic and Liquidity - June non - farm employment increased by 147,000, far exceeding market expectations. Private employment decreased by 33,000, the first decline since March 2023. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, lower than expected. The non - farm data for April and May was revised up by 16,000 [2] - The derivatives market expects two interest rate cuts in September and December. The probability of the federal funds rate remaining unchanged in July is 95%, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 5%, the probability of a cut in September is 73%, and the probability of a total 50 - bp cut by December is 90% [2] 3.3 Exchange Rate - No specific analysis content is provided in the given text, only chart information about non - US currency trends, Sino - US sovereign bond spreads, etc. 3.4 Overseas US Dollar Bonds - The US Treasury bond yield increased in the past week, mainly affected by the strong June non - farm payroll data. The passage of the "Big Beautiful Act" is expected to add $3.4 trillion in deficits to the US in the next decade, which may put upward pressure on the medium - and long - term US Treasury bond yields [3] 3.5 Chinese - Issued US Dollar Bonds - In the past two weeks, the three major international rating agencies took 7 rating actions on Chinese - issued US dollar bond issuers, including 2 upgrades, 1 downgrade, 3 initial ratings, and 1 rating withdrawal [93] 3.6 Rating Actions - In the past two weeks, there were 7 rating actions on Chinese - issued US dollar bond issuers by three major international rating agencies. For example, on July 6, 2025, Fitch gave an initial rating of BBB - to Minsheng Commercial Bank International Holdings Co., Ltd.; on June 26, 2025, Fitch downgraded Longfor Group Holdings Limited from BB to BB - [93][94]

Group 1 - China Overseas Land & Investment (COLI) has aggressively acquired land in Shandong, securing four significant plots in just four months, indicating a strong commitment to the region [6] - The recent acquisitions include prime locations in Jinan and Qingdao, with a focus on both high-end and affordable housing markets, showcasing COLI's strategy to maintain a diverse portfolio [6] - The company achieved the highest sales revenue and sales area in Shandong for the first half of the year, reflecting its strong brand power and product quality [7][8] Group 2 - The recent land acquisition at Jinan's Jinan Steel site is strategically located in the eastern part of the city, which is expected to attract a significant population due to its proximity to employment centers [12] - The Jinan Steel area is characterized by low-density development, which is anticipated to enhance property value retention and comfort for residents [12] - Infrastructure developments, including the new metro line and parks, are already in place, providing a solid foundation for future residential projects [12]

Group 1 - The report highlights a focus on real estate companies such as China Merchants Shekou, China Resources Land, Poly Developments, China Overseas Land, and others, indicating potential investment opportunities in the sector [2] - The overall market capitalization of the real estate sector is noted to be 2712.5 billion, with a circulating market value of 2565.9 billion, reflecting a 3% increase [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the "credit bottom" and "business model bottom" as key indicators for future investment strategies in real estate [7][12] Group 2 - The report predicts a decline in new housing sales by 6.2% year-on-year for 2025, with expectations of a gradual recovery in subsequent years [21][25] - It is anticipated that the new housing price will stabilize first in core urban areas, with a projected average price decrease of 1% for 2025 [38][41] - The report suggests that the supply-demand relationship for new homes is improving, with a notable reduction in supply and an increase in quality, which is expected to lead to price stabilization [36][38] Group 3 - The report indicates that the rental yield and mortgage rate gap is narrowing, which is expected to support the overall housing demand [19][20] - It is projected that the total transaction area for new and second-hand homes will see a year-on-year change of -2% in 2025, followed by a slight increase in 2026 and 2027 [25][28] - The report highlights that the second-hand housing market is experiencing a healthy structure, with a 11% increase in the number of listings compared to the end of 2024 [43][45]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [5] Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate market is still in a destocking trend, with new housing market conditions remaining challenging despite some policy support aimed at stabilizing expectations and promoting recovery [4][32] - The report highlights the importance of strong product capability and inventory management in identifying quality real estate companies for investment [5] Summary by Sections Industry Data - New housing transaction volume in 34 key cities decreased by 0.3% week-on-week, with first and second-tier cities seeing a 2% increase while third and fourth-tier cities experienced a 38% decline [6] - In July, the cumulative transaction volume for new homes in 34 cities dropped by 25% year-on-year, with first and second-tier cities also down by 25% [9][10] - The inventory of new homes in 15 cities decreased by 1% week-on-week, with a current available area of 88.85 million square meters [23] Policy and News Tracking - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasized the need for multi-faceted approaches to stabilize expectations and promote recovery in the real estate market [32][33] - Local policies include the expansion of housing provident fund loans in Nanjing and new policies in Hainan and Guangzhou to facilitate housing loans [32][33] Company Dynamics - Vanke has applied for a loan of up to 6.249 billion yuan from Shenzhen Metro Group, marking the sixth loan transaction this year [5] - Poly Developments reported sales of 29 billion yuan, down 31% year-on-year, while China Overseas Development reported 29.7 billion yuan, down 36% [5] - The report recommends focusing on quality real estate companies with strong product capabilities and inventory management, including companies like China Overseas Development and Poly Developments [5]