Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2] Core Insights - The non-ferrous metal industry has significantly outperformed the benchmark, with a cumulative increase of 65.71% year-to-date as of November 21, 2025, surpassing the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 52.53 percentage points [4][15] - The revenue and profit growth rates in the non-ferrous metal sector have gradually stabilized since the beginning of the year, with notable improvements in the performance of energy metals [4][56] - The first three quarters of 2025 saw the non-ferrous metal sector achieve a total revenue of 2.82 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 151.29 billion yuan, up 40.9% year-on-year [4][36] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Overview - The non-ferrous metal index has shown strong performance, ranking second among the first-level industries in the first three quarters of 2025, with a quarterly increase of 41.82% in Q3 [15][18] - The nickel sector recorded the highest growth in the first three quarters, while the silver sector led in Q3 [4][22] 2. Copper Sector - The copper sector achieved a revenue of 1.42 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5.01%, and a net profit of 69.01 billion yuan, up 46.17% year-on-year [5][65] 3. Precious Metals Sector - The precious metals sector reported a revenue of 299.54 billion yuan in the first three quarters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35.02%, and a net profit of 14.73 billion yuan, up 62.64% year-on-year [6][11] 4. Rare Earth Sector - The rare earth sector saw a positive revenue growth rate, with significant improvements in performance, and a net profit growth that outpaced revenue growth [6][11] 5. Tungsten Sector - The tungsten sector achieved a revenue of 50.25 billion yuan in the first three quarters, with a year-on-year increase of 20.38%, and a net profit of 2.87 billion yuan, up 28.58% year-on-year [7][11] 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the energy metals sector due to supply constraints and increasing demand from domestic grid investments and new energy sectors, as well as the precious metals sector, which is expected to benefit from a long-term bullish trend in gold prices [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company, China Nonferrous Metal Industry's Foreign Engineering and Construction Co., Ltd. (中色股份), is experiencing a mixed performance in the market, with a lower revenue but a significant increase in net profit, indicating potential operational efficiency improvements. Group 1: Company Performance - On November 28, the company's stock closed at 6.03 yuan, up 1.69%, with a rolling PE ratio of 21.96 times and a total market capitalization of 12.003 billion yuan [1] - For the third quarter of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 6.931 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.21% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 42.84% to 481 million yuan, with a sales gross margin of 15.93% [2] Group 2: Industry Comparison - The average PE ratio for the nonferrous metals industry is 30.35 times, with a median of 35.21 times, positioning the company at 29th place within the industry [1][3] - The company’s static PE ratio is 29.84 times, and its price-to-book ratio is 2.01 times, indicating a valuation below the industry average [3] Group 3: Market Activity - On November 28, the company saw a net inflow of main funds amounting to 8.5995 million yuan, although it experienced a total outflow of 14.1775 million yuan over the past five days [1]

Group 1 - Copper prices have been on the rise this year, with multiple domestic and international copper price indicators reaching historical highs, driven by various supporting factors [1][2] - China's annual refined copper consumption is approximately 15 million tons, while domestic copper production is only about 1.8 million tons, leading to a high dependency on imports exceeding 80% [2] - The current copper resource reserves in China have exceeded 40 million tons, showing a growth of over 50% since 2020, and the utilization of recycled copper is expected to account for 28% of total copper consumption by 2024 [2] Group 2 - The rapid development of new industries such as renewable energy and data centers has significantly increased the demand for copper, contributing to the ongoing rise in copper prices [2][3] - The overall copper consumption in China has been growing since the 14th Five-Year Plan, with refined copper consumption projected to reach 14.95 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.75% [3] - The potential for copper to be replaced by lighter and cheaper aluminum in sectors like electric vehicles and household appliances could weaken the growth expectations for downstream demand if raw material prices continue to rise [3]

Group 1 - Copper prices have been on the rise this year, with multiple domestic and international copper price indicators reaching historical highs, driven by various supporting factors [1][2] - China's annual refined copper consumption is approximately 15 million tons, while domestic copper production is only about 1.8 million tons, leading to a high dependency on imports exceeding 80% [2] - The current copper resource reserves in China have exceeded 40 million tons, showing a growth of over 50% since 2020, with recycled copper utilization also increasing significantly [3] Group 2 - The rapid development of emerging industries such as new energy and data centers has led to increased demand for copper, contributing to the rising prices [4][8] - Demand for copper products related to new energy vehicles, such as copper foil and copper rods, has remained strong throughout the year [5][6] - Overall copper consumption in China has been growing since the 14th Five-Year Plan, with refined copper consumption expected to reach 14.95 million tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.75% [7] Group 3 - The copper consumption in new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, wind power, and artificial intelligence is projected to reach between 3.8 million to 4 million tons this year, driving overall copper consumption growth [8] - Industry experts express confidence in copper prices due to the positive long-term supply and demand fundamentals [8] - There is a potential risk of substitution with lighter and cheaper aluminum materials in sectors like new energy vehicles and household appliances if copper prices continue to rise [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Hong Kong's non-ferrous metal stocks have risen, with notable increases in companies such as China Aluminum, China Hongqiao, and Jiangxi Copper, all gaining over 3%, while Luoyang Molybdenum increased by over 2% [1] Group 2 - China Aluminum's stock performance reflects a positive trend in the non-ferrous metal sector [1] - China Hongqiao's stock also shows significant growth, indicating strong market interest [1] - Jiangxi Copper's increase further highlights the overall bullish sentiment in the industry [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum's rise, albeit slightly lower, still contributes to the overall positive movement in the sector [1]

内容概况：铜包铝母线是一种基于"趋肤效应"原理设计的复合导电材料，其结构以铝为芯体、外层包覆 铜，既保留了铜在导体表面承担主要导电功能时所具备的高载流量、低接触电阻和强抗腐蚀能力，又通 过内部铝芯的引入显著降低了材料重量与制造成本。作为传统铜排的理想替代品，铜包铝母线在保持相 同加工与使用便利性的同时，能够为企业节约40%–50%的导体成本，目前已广泛应用于电控配电设备 中作为大电流载流导体。近年来，在电力基础设施持续升级、新能源产业高速发展、工业自动化水平不 断提升，以及智能电网、数据中心、新能源汽车等新兴领域迅速扩展的共同推动下，铜包铝母线作为高 效电能传输的关键部件，市场需求持续增长。与此同时，国家政策对电力设备更新换代的支持进一步促 进了行业的规模扩张。数据显示，2016-2024年中国铜包铝母线行业市场规模从155.3亿元增长至887.66 亿元，年复合增长率为24.35%。未来，随着新型电力系统建设的加速推进、工业领域能效要求的不断 提高，以及"以铝节铜"技术路径在更多应用场景中获得认可，铜包铝母线行业有望在技术标准化、产品 高端化及市场国际化等方面实现突破，推动行业迈向更高质量的发展阶段。 相关 ...

Core Viewpoint - The polysilicon market continues to exhibit a weak supply and demand dynamic, with expectations of maintaining a stable but weak operational trend in the short term [1][2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The transaction price range for n-type recycled polysilicon is between 49,000 to 55,000 CNY/ton, with an average price of 53,200 CNY/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous period [1]. - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 50,000 to 51,000 CNY/ton, with an average price of 50,500 CNY/ton, also unchanged from the previous period [1]. - The number of mainstream signing enterprises remains at 4-5, with a decrease in signing volume for rod silicon, while granular silicon shows resilience due to its improved quality recognition and cost-effectiveness [1]. Market Stability Factors - The stability in market prices is supported by both supply and demand sides. On the supply side, polysilicon companies are determined to maintain price stability, with two leading companies implementing significant production cuts this month [1]. - There is a clear consensus across the industry chain that price instability could harm the entire chain, contributing to price stability [2]. - Despite production cuts in the silicon wafer segment, downstream companies maintain their procurement plans, particularly for granular silicon, providing a bottom support for prices [1][2]. Price Statistics - The highest and lowest prices for n-type recycled polysilicon are 55,000 CNY/ton and 49,000 CNY/ton, respectively, with no price fluctuation [3]. - The average price for n-type dense material is 49,700 CNY/ton, with no fluctuation reported [3]. - The average price for p-type polysilicon is not specified, indicating no transactions occurred this week [3]. Participating Companies - The price statistics are based on data from nine polysilicon production companies, which account for 89.3% of the domestic total production in Q3 2025 [4].

摩根士丹利发布研报称，中国有色金属工业协会副会长陈学森表示，由于政府指示限制过剩产能，约有 200万吨铜冶炼产能已被停产，所有违反规定的在建冶炼产能也已暂停运营。若该政策落实执行，将利 好铜价及主要铜生产商。该行预期江西铜业股份(00358)及洛阳钼业(03993)股价将于未来15日内上升， 机会率约70%至80%，目标价分别为37.3港元及18.6港元，均予"增持"评级。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a volatile trend with increasing open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The raw material supply of copper concentrate remains tight, and the high price of copper ore still supports the cost of refined copper. The supply of refined copper may converge due to the tight supply of copper ore and the concentrated maintenance of some smelters. The downstream demand is still weak as the downstream开工率 only slightly rebounds after the decline in October, and the downstream is cautious due to high copper prices. The option market sentiment is bullish with a slightly decreasing implied volatility. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD has double - lines above the 0 - axis with a shrinking red column. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trades at low prices and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 86,590 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 10,893.50 dollars/ton, up 75.50 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is - 10 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 204,728 hands, up 5,146 hands. The top 20 futures positions of Shanghai copper are - 22,921 hands, up 4,551 hands. The LME copper inventory is 156,575 tons, up 825 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 110,603 tons, up 1,196 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 5,625 tons, up 100 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrants of cathode copper are 39,825 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 86,655 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 86,745 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 48 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 31.50 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 65 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 9.52 dollars/ton, down 15.36 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 245.15 million tons, down 13.56 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 42.32 dollars/kiloton, down 0.11 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 76,990 yuan/metal ton, up 140 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 77,690 yuan/metal ton, up 140 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 120.40 million tons, down 6.20 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons, down 50,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 59,290 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 72,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 870 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 200.40 million tons, down 22.80 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 4,824 billion yuan, up 445.93 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 73,562.70 billion yuan, up 5,856.99 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,177,000 million pieces, down 194,236.10 million pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 11.36%, down 2.21%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 19.38%, down 0.03%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 11.69%, down 0.0045; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.17, down 0.0042 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The National Data Bureau launched the first batch of 12 state - owned enterprise data resource development and utilization pilots, covering traditional and emerging fields. The National Data Bureau will support data exchange and trading service system construction. In October, the national power market trading volume was 563.8 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 15.6%. From January to October, the cumulative power market trading volume was 5,492 billion kWh, accounting for 63.7% of the total social power consumption. In October, European car sales increased by 4.9% year - on - year to 1.09 million vehicles, with Tesla's new car registrations down 48%, BYD's up 195%, SAIC Group up 56%, and Toyota down 10.8%. A Fed governor said the current monetary policy hinders economic development and the US economy needs significant interest rate cuts. In September, the US PPI rose 0.3% month - on - month, the core PPI rose 0.1% month - on - month, and retail sales rose 0.2% month - on - month but significantly slowed down. The China - US presidential call was initiated by the US side with a positive atmosphere [2].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strong Buy" [1] Core Views - The copper mining output interference rate is increasing, leading to a long-term supply shortage due to insufficient exploration spending. The global copper supply is expected to decrease in the coming years, with significant reductions in output from major projects like Grasberg, Kakula, and Batu Hijau [2][4] - Demand for copper is structurally improving due to sustained investments in AI and renewable energy. Traditional demand remains stable, while new demand from AI and energy revolutions is expected to grow significantly, increasing its share of overall demand from 16% in 2023 to 22% by 2030 [2][37] - The upcoming interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to drive copper prices higher, with projections of LME copper prices reaching $13,000 per ton and Shanghai copper prices exceeding ¥100,000 per ton in 2026 [2][30] Supply and Demand Analysis - The global copper mining supply is expected to decline, with a projected output of 2.35 million tons in 2025, down 13.4 million tons from 2024. Recovery in production from major mines is anticipated in 2026-2027, contributing to a gradual increase in supply [23][36] - The copper supply is highly concentrated, with the top 16 copper producers accounting for 58.87% of global output. Any production halts at these major mines could significantly impact supply [14][30] - The interference rate in copper mining supply is high, with multiple incidents in 2025 leading to production downgrades. This trend is expected to continue, affecting the recovery of production in the coming years [16][22] Price Trends - Copper prices have shown an overall upward trend since 2025, influenced by various factors including supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions. The highest price reached was ¥88,700 per ton in Q4 2025 [8][24] - The TC price for copper concentrate has been declining, reaching a historical low of $42.21 per ton by mid-November 2025, which has put pressure on the smelting sector [26][30] New Demand Drivers - The demand for copper is being driven by the growth of AI, electric vehicles, and renewable energy sectors. The copper consumption in electric vehicles is 2-3 times higher than in traditional vehicles, and significant copper is required for solar and wind energy installations [44][45] - AI data centers are expected to significantly increase copper demand due to their high power requirements and the need for extensive wiring and cooling systems [49][53] Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve's interest rate policies are a key focus, with potential rate cuts expected to influence copper prices positively. The market is currently assessing the timing and impact of these cuts on economic conditions [56][62] - Liquidity tightening has been affecting copper prices, but there are expectations for relief in December 2025 as the Fed may halt its balance sheet reduction [62][63]