早上好，先来关注下国际市场。 今晨7:00开盘，现货白银价格一度涨逾2.4%，报79.7美元/盎司。 摩根大通在此前发布的技术策略报告中表示，金、银、铜等金属品种在未来几周都将进入"盘整期"。然 而，这并非"牛市"终结。 在摩根大通全球市场策略团队分析师Jason Hunter看来，当前的调整是长期上涨趋势中的必要休整。对 于精明的交易者而言，关键的博弈点在于"分化"：相比于黄金典型的"冲高回落"形态，基本金属（尤其 是铜）得益于全球制造业周期的支撑，其基本面逻辑更为坚实，预计将在二季度先于黄金开启反弹。 美国财政部长：预计美联储不会迅速采取行动缩减资产负债表 美国财政部长贝森特昨日表示，他预计美联储不会迅速采取行动缩减资产负债表，即便是在被提名为美 联储主席的沃什领导下也是如此。 贝森特表示，美联储可能需要长达一年的时间来对资产负债表做出决定。沃什将是一位非常独立的美联 储主席。 "至于如何处理资产负债表，将由美联储自行决定。如果他们转向'充足准备金'政策，我不认为他们会 迅速采取行动，因为这确实需要更大规模的资产负债表。所以，我认为他们可能会静观其变，至少花一 年的时间来决定该怎么做。"贝森特说。 中信建 ...

Core Insights - The A-share market is expected to experience a peak in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in 2025, with 174 listed companies disclosing restructuring plans, and the number of reviewed projects by the three exchanges reaching 83, which is 3.32 times that of 2024 [1][2] Group 1: M&A Activity and Trends - In 2025, 40 listed companies successfully passed the restructuring committee's review, achieving a pass rate of 97.56%, an increase from 93.33% in 2024 [2] - The average review period for these 40 companies was reduced to 142 days, with some projects, like the merger of Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities, completing the review in just 17 days [3][6] - The main board remains the primary arena for M&A activities, with 62 major asset restructuring transactions, while the STAR Market and ChiNext also showed increased activity with 24 and 41 cases respectively [3] Group 2: Financial Impact and Scale - The total scale of completed restructurings in 2025 reached 475.96 billion yuan, with significant disparities; for instance, China Shipbuilding's merger with China Shipbuilding Industry Group accounted for 115.15 billion yuan, while another company had a restructuring scale of only 0.0158 billion yuan [3] - Eight listed companies had restructuring scales exceeding 10 billion yuan, collectively amounting to 393.3 billion yuan, highlighting a concentration of large-scale transactions [3] Group 3: Policy Influence - The implementation of the "M&A Six Guidelines" policy has significantly boosted the M&A market, simplifying review processes and directing capital towards strategic national sectors, thereby promoting industrial upgrades and economic structure optimization [5][6] - The policy has led to a notable increase in M&A cases in sectors like semiconductors, advanced manufacturing, and new energy, reflecting a strong alignment with national strategic emerging industries [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - The newly formed entity of Guotai Haitong is projected to achieve a net profit of 27.533 billion to 28.006 billion yuan in 2025, indicating a year-on-year growth of 111% to 115% [7] - The balanced participation of state-owned and non-state-owned enterprises in M&A activities, each accounting for 50%, reflects the diversification and marketization of the M&A landscape [7] - The ongoing effects of the "M&A Six Guidelines" are expected to lead the A-share M&A market towards a path of standardization, marketization, and internationalization [7]

商业不动产REITs申报启幕。 截至2月8日，首批10家商业不动产REITs已经申报，合计拟募资377亿元。华泰证券固收张继强认为，这是继2025年12月31日 证监会发布《中国证监会关于推出商业不动产投资信托基金试点的公告》以来，商业不动产REITs的首次申报，标志中国公募 REITs市场正式进入"基础设施不动产+商业不动产"全面发展时期。 据悉，REITs政策助推多层次市场快速形成，供给端形成了基础设施REITs、商业不动产REITs、机构间REITs等多层次的产品 体系。券商在REITs业务中扮演着财务顾问的角色，本次首批10家商业不动产REITs的申报，国泰海通、中信证券作为财务顾 问，占据6家份额。 以中金唯品会封闭式商业不动产证券投资基金为例，其不动产项目是郑州杉杉奥特莱斯项目、哈尔滨杉杉奥特莱斯项目，预 计募资规模74.70亿元。郑州杉杉奥特莱斯项目于2016年9月开业，迄今已运营近10年，该项目分三期建设，其中一期为2层地 上广场及地下车库，二期为3层地上广场（其中第3层为车库），三期为1层地上广场，总建筑面积约11.20万平方米。截至2025 年12月31日，该项目土地剩余使用年限约为30. ...

基于此，推荐标的主要包括以下几类：1）游戏：AI应用是游戏良好的分发渠道，同时AI与游戏的结合 亦能探索出新玩法；2）影视：包括电影、长剧、短剧、漫剧在内的多种影视形式都有望受益于AI带来 的变革；3）营销：新生态带来更多广告投放需求。 我国互联网普及率突破80%，广告市场现复苏迹象。根据CNNIC在2月5日公布的第57次《中国互联网 络发展状况统计报告》，2025年我国网民规模达11.25亿人，普及率达到80.1%。同时，值得注意的是， 生成式人工智能用户规模大6.02亿人，普及率攀升至42.8%。此外，根据CTR的统计数据，从2025年7月 开始，广告刊例花费同比增长明显，9-11月逐月增速均在双位数以上，11月购物节大促期间增速达 16.6%。后续在AI新技术的加持下，2026年广告市场有望延续2025年下半年开始的良好表现。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 风险提示：AI发展不及预期，游戏流水不及预期。 AI应用"三分天下"，流量入口成必争之地。2026年春节期间，元宝、千问和豆包三款AI应用均推出多 种活动获客，抢占AI流量入口。元宝10亿元现金红包的活动最先展开，从2月1日持续到2月17日，首轮 活动的现 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-bank financial sector, indicating an "Overweight" rating for the industry, suggesting it will outperform the overall market [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in new account openings in January 2026, reaching 4.9158 million, a year-on-year increase of 213% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 89%. This trend is expected to benefit brokerage firms as funds flow from traditional banks to capital markets [4]. - The report emphasizes the need for China's financial sector to transition from being large to strong, focusing on mergers and acquisitions as a core growth engine for brokerage firms. It also notes the expansion of international business opportunities due to the ongoing internationalization of the RMB [4]. - The report discusses specific stock movements, including Huatai Securities' plan to issue HKD 10 billion in zero-coupon convertible bonds, and the restructuring of Zhongtai Securities to enhance operational efficiency [4][13]. - In the insurance sector, the report notes that Ping An Group has increased its stake in China Life (H) multiple times, reflecting confidence in the sector's value re-evaluation. The report anticipates steady growth in new business value (NBV) and an increase in equity allocation for China Life [4][11]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 1.33% during the week, while the non-bank index fell by 0.60%. The brokerage, insurance, and diversified financial sectors reported declines of 0.65%, 0.71%, and an increase of 0.43%, respectively [7]. Non-Bank Financial News and Key Stock Announcements - The report outlines regulatory updates regarding virtual currencies and asset tokenization, indicating a tightening of oversight in these areas [9]. - Specific stock announcements include Huatai Securities' bond issuance and Ping An's increased holdings in China Life, showcasing strategic moves within the sector [11][13]. Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on average daily trading volume, which reached CNY 24,068.65 billion, and highlights the significant increase in new investors, with 995,900 new accounts opened in August 2023 [23][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-bank financial sector, indicating an "Overweight" rating for the industry [4][48]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in new account openings, with 4.9158 million new accounts in January 2026, representing a year-over-year increase of 213% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 89% [4]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing shift of funds from traditional banks to capital markets and non-bank financial institutions, driven by the expiration of 70 trillion yuan in one-year or longer deposits and a decline in net interest margins [4]. - The report discusses the need for China's financial sector to transition from being large to strong, focusing on mergers and acquisitions as a core growth engine for brokerages [4]. - The report notes that the international business landscape for brokerages is expanding due to the deepening process of RMB internationalization and the demand for cross-border wealth management and investment banking services [4]. - The report mentions that Ping An Group has increased its stake in China Life (H) multiple times, reflecting a strong confidence in the insurance sector [4][12]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,643.60 with a decline of 1.33%, while the non-bank index closed at 2,030.92 with a decline of 0.60% [8]. - The brokerage, insurance, and diversified financial indices reported declines of 0.65%, 0.71%, and an increase of 0.43%, respectively [8]. Non-Bank Industry News and Key Announcements - The report outlines regulatory updates regarding virtual currencies and asset tokenization, indicating a tightening of oversight in these areas [10]. - Ping An Group's recent acquisitions of shares in China Life (H) are detailed, showcasing a strategic investment approach [12]. - Huatai Securities plans to issue 10 billion HKD in zero-coupon convertible bonds to support overseas business development [14]. Investment Analysis Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on brokerages with strong comprehensive capabilities, recommending stocks such as Guotai Junan A+H, GF Securities A+H, and CITIC Securities A+H [4]. - For insurance, the report recommends China Life (H), New China Life, Ping An, China Pacific Insurance, and China Property & Casualty Insurance, highlighting the systemic value reassessment opportunities in the insurance sector [4].

行业研究丨深度报告丨投资银行业与经纪业 [Table_Title] 轮动对比视角复盘，当前非银子行业如何择时选 股？ %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 历史上 A 股牛市中保险及券商表现如何？不同类型牛市下表现何异？节奏及持续性如何？站 在当前如何展望？我们梳理了 2012 年以来几次 A 股上涨周期中保险及券商指数涨跌及行业相 对表现，并进一步梳理一级行业月度涨跌轮动以探究行情节奏，最后结合当前时点进行分析展 望。我们认为当前估值上非银进入配置性价比区间，择时应合理配合政策及监管节奏增配，配 置上推荐高弹性保险与金融 IT。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490519080007 SFC：BUV596 吴一凡 盛晓双 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 21 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 投资银行业与经纪业 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 轮动对比视角复盘，当前非银子行业如何择时 2] 选股？ [Table_Summary2] 历史 ...

二 〇 二 六 年 度 2026 年 2 月 8 日 生猪：堰塞湖显露，近端压力超预期 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com 吴昊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 wuhao8@gtht.com 报告导读： （1）本周市场回顾（2.1-2.8） 现货市场，生猪价格弱势运行。河南 20KG 仔猪价格 30 元/公斤（上周 29.2 元/公斤），本周河南生 猪价格 12.43 元/公斤（上周 12.68 元/公斤），全国 50KG 二元母猪价格 1559 元/头（上周 1559 元/ 头）。供应端，节前出栏时间紧迫，集团企业增量出栏，南北方散户略增量，出栏意愿增强；需求端，下 游屠宰旺季亏损，旺季虽至，宰量增幅不及预期。根据卓创资讯数据，本周全国出栏平均体重 124.23KG （上周 124.33KG），出栏均重环比下降 0.08%。 期货市场，生猪期货价格弱势运行。本周生猪期货 LH2603 合约最高价为 11330 元/吨，最低价为 10855 元/吨，收盘价为 10860 元/吨（上周同期 11220 元/吨）。基差方面，LH2603 合约基差为 15 ...

Group 1 - The State Council emphasizes the importance of promoting effective investment to stabilize economic growth and enhance development momentum, proposing innovative policy measures and financial tools [2] - The meeting discusses the need to plan and promote major projects in key areas such as infrastructure, urban renewal, public services, and emerging industries [2] - The meeting highlights the role of central state-owned enterprises in expanding investment and the need to support private investment development [2] Group 2 - Eight departments, including the People's Bank of China, release a notice to upgrade virtual currency regulatory policies, maintaining a prohibitive stance on virtual currency activities [3][4] - The notice specifies strict regulations for tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) and requires domestic enterprises to file with the China Securities Regulatory Commission before engaging in related activities [3] - The regulatory framework aims to prevent illegal activities associated with virtual currencies, such as money laundering and fraud [4] Group 3 - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange reports that China's official gold reserves increased to 74.19 million ounces by the end of January 2026, marking a continuous increase for 15 months [5] - China's foreign exchange reserves reached $339.91 billion, up by $41.2 billion, the highest level in a decade [5] Group 4 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announces the construction of national computing power interconnection nodes, aiming to build a comprehensive system for computing power connectivity [6] - The announcement leads to a surge in related stocks, particularly in the computing power industry, indicating a growing demand for AI interaction capabilities [6] Group 5 - A successful launch of a reusable experimental spacecraft by China marks a significant advancement in commercial space endeavors, potentially leading to a normalization of high-frequency launches [7] - The development of a three-dimensional conical carbon-based flexible brain cortex electrode array by a research team signifies a breakthrough in brain-machine interface technology [8] Group 6 - The National Health Commission seeks public opinion on the first national standard for prepared dishes, which prohibits the use of preservatives and sets a maximum shelf life of one year [9] - The introduction of national standards is expected to enhance industry order and benefit leading companies through compliance and market share growth [9] Group 7 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average reaches a historic milestone, closing above 50,000 points for the first time, with significant gains in technology and chip stocks [10] - The commodity market sees an increase in gold and silver prices, with gold rising by 3.88% to $4,966.22 per ounce and silver by 9.68% to $77.85 per ounce [11] Group 8 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission approves IPO registrations for two companies, indicating ongoing market activity [12] - A total of 36 companies are set to have their restricted shares unlocked this week, with a total market value of approximately 36.5 billion yuan [15]

北交所策略专题报告 2026 年 02 月 08 日 2025 北交所券商执业全景：特色券商优势巩固，头部券商逐渐跃居前列 ——北交所策略专题报告 北交所研究团队 诸海滨（分析师） zhuhaibin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522080007 专题：2025 年格局重塑：头部券商成为执业主力军，特色券商优势巩固 2026 年 1 月 30 日北京证券交易所、全国股转公司根据对证券公司 2025 年的执 业质量情况进行了评价。2025 年度，115 家证券公司中，14 家证券公司子公司 纳入其母公司合并评价，由高到低分别被评为一、二、三、四档，其中，一档占 比 19.80%；二档占比 39.60%；三档占比 19.80%；四档占比 20.79%。从一档券 商变化来看，北交所市场券商执业格局"大洗牌"，头部券商逐渐跃居前列。2025 年排名前十名分别为国泰海通、华泰证券、招商证券、申万宏源、中信证券、国 金证券、东吴证券、开源证券、中信建投、平安证券，其中华泰证券、中信证券、 平安证券分别由 2024 年的第二档跃升为第一档。从专业质量总分变化来看，头 部券商进步明显。2025 年排名前五名分别为 ...