证券分析师 方思齐 A0230525090002 fangsq@swsresearch.com 联系人 方思齐 A0230525090002 fangsq@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2026 年 03 月 02 日 上期有色金属指数解析：期货指数 与股票指数有何差异？ 相关研究 权 益 量 化 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 股 票 基 金 - ⚫ 有色金属景气回升，政策驱动行业稳增长。2025/8/28，工业和信息化部等八部门印发《有 色金属行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026 年）》，系列举措将有效改善行业供需结构、 提升产业韧性，为有色金属行业景气度回升注入强劲动力。 ⚫ 工业有色金属的供需维持紧平衡，价格易涨难跌。结合库存数据与行业周期来看，当前 LME 铜、铝、锡的全球库存整体仍处于低位，机器人、新能源汽车以及新能源装机等新 兴产业的快速发展，正在同步推升铜、铝等工业有色金属的需求；而供给端方面，近几年 全球铜矿开采量增速出现放缓，全球铝的产能也已经达到高位，新增产能受限，因此，未 来铜、铝等工业有色 ...

有色矿业ETF招商（159690）业绩比较基准为中证有色金属矿业主题指数收益率，管理人为招商基金管 理有限公司，基金经理为王宁远，成立（2023-06-21）以来回报为149.70%，近一个月回报为0.93%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 3月2日，有色矿业ETF招商（159690）开盘涨2.04%，报2.548元。有色矿业ETF招商（159690）重仓股 方面，紫金矿业开盘涨2.15%，洛阳钼业涨1.71%，北方稀土涨1.86%，华友钴业跌0.01%，中国铝业涨 1.17%，赣锋锂业跌0.51%，山东黄金涨3.57%，云铝股份涨1.60%，中金黄金涨6.16%，中矿资源跌 0.02%。 来源：新浪基金∞工作室 ...

股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.03.01 避险与通胀，金属迎全面重估 [Table_Industry] 有色金属 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 李鹏飞(分析师) | 010-83939783 | lipengfei2@gtht.com | S0880519080003 | | 魏雨迪(分析师) | 021-38674763 | weiyudi@gtht.com | S0880520010002 | | 刘小华(分析师) | 021-38038434 | liuxiaohua@gtht.com | S0880523120003 | | 王宏玉(分析师) | 021-38038343 | wanghongyu@gtht.com | S0880523060005 | | 梁琳(分析师) | 021-23185845 | lianglin@gtht.com | S0880525070014 | | 李阳(分析师) | 021-23185618 | liyang7@gtht.com | S08805 ...

来源：新浪基金∞工作室 3月2日，有色ETF汇添富（159652）开盘涨2.64%，报2.136元。有色ETF汇添富（159652）重仓股方 面，紫金矿业开盘涨2.15%，洛阳钼业涨1.71%，北方稀土涨1.86%，华友钴业跌0.01%，中国铝业涨 1.17%，赣锋锂业跌0.51%，山东黄金涨3.57%，云铝股份涨1.60%，中金黄金涨6.16%，天齐锂业跌 1.08%。 有色ETF汇添富（159652）业绩比较基准为中证细分有色金属产业主题指数收益率，管理人为汇添富基 金管理股份有限公司，基金经理为董瑾、孙浩，成立（2023-01-16）以来回报为107.95%，近一个月回 报为0.63%。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for precious metals due to rising geopolitical tensions and increased demand for safe-haven assets [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the escalation of the Middle East situation, particularly the military actions between the US and Iran, is expected to boost the performance of precious metals as investors seek refuge from market volatility [3]. - It emphasizes that Iran's significant share in global production of certain metals, such as strontium and direct reduced iron (DRI), could lead to price fluctuations in these commodities due to potential supply disruptions [4][6]. - The long-term outlook for precious metals remains positive, with expectations of a super cycle for gold driven by central bank purchases and sustained investment demand [3]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes that Iran's military conflict may impact its production capabilities, particularly in metals where it holds a high global market share, such as strontium (56% of global production) and DRI (24% of global production) [4][5]. - Copper and zinc are identified as critical metals with significant implications for global supply chains, especially in light of potential disruptions in the Middle East [6]. Precious Metals - The report anticipates that geopolitical tensions will enhance the appeal of gold and silver as inflation hedges, with gold prices expected to rise in response to increased demand [3]. - The report also discusses the potential for silver prices to be more volatile due to its dual role as an industrial and financial asset [3]. Aluminum Industry - The report indicates that the ongoing conflict may tighten the global aluminum supply, particularly if Iranian production is affected, which could lead to price increases [11][12]. - It highlights that the aluminum market is currently in a state of tight balance, with potential for price support due to supply constraints [11]. New Energy Metals - The report discusses Zimbabwe's ban on lithium exports, which is expected to tighten the global lithium market and support prices [15][16]. - It suggests that the rise of resource nationalism may lead to increased control over strategic metals, impacting their pricing and availability [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical premiums are rising, and the performance of strategic metals is expected to be promising. The ongoing risks from the Israel-Iran conflict are significant, and the safe-haven attributes of precious metals are likely to provide substantial support for their prices. In the industrial metals sector, there was a significant accumulation of copper and aluminum inventories during the Spring Festival. As downstream production resumes, the demand during the peak season will be tested, with a focus on the inventory reduction speed post-holiday, which will determine the strength of industrial product prices [3][9] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - Geopolitical premiums are increasing, and strategic metals are expected to perform well. The recent military actions between the US and Israel against Iran have led to a halt in oil tanker movements in the Strait of Hormuz, which may elevate inflation expectations due to rising oil prices. The ongoing conflict poses uncontrollable risks, supporting precious metal prices. In the industrial metals sector, significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival will be tested as production resumes [9][13] 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 9.77%, ranking second among all industries [27][19]. Key stocks include Zijin Mining (601899, Buy) and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988, Buy) [4] 3. Precious Metals - Precious metals are supported by rising geopolitical premiums. As of February 27, SHFE gold rose by 3.41% to 1,147.90 CNY per gram, while COMEX gold increased by 4.12% to 5,280.00 USD per ounce. The inventory levels for SHFE gold decreased slightly, while SPDR gold holdings increased by 726,000 ounces [14][30][57] 4. Copper - Copper prices increased by 3.53% to 103,920 CNY per ton on SHFE as of February 27. The supply side remains tight, with significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival. The focus is on the inventory reduction speed as production resumes [17][28][72] 5. Aluminum - Aluminum prices rose by 2.76% to 23,835 CNY per ton on SHFE. Supply concerns are heightened due to geopolitical tensions, which may support aluminum prices. The operating rate for aluminum processing has recovered, and inventory levels have increased significantly [16][87][83]

地缘政治冲突驱动贵金属和稀有金属价格上涨，避险情绪利好贵金属， 战争消耗品逻辑下，稀土和钨等小金属因海外短缺和国内主导而受益， 尤其关注锑、锗、镓等军用相关品种。 空天作战对重稀土需求旺盛，镝、铽、钇等元素尤为稀缺，中国掌握高 纯工艺，出口管制导致海外氧化钇价格暴涨至国内 80 多倍，加剧美国 战斗机"难产"和日本氧化锆产业链停产风险。 重稀土海外报价仍有显著上行空间，国内价格相对稳定，应关注具备 "深加工顺价"能力的氧化锆瓷块产业链，如爱迪特与国瓷材料，美伊 冲突强化军工消耗预期，可能加剧氧化钇、氧化铽等品种的稀缺性。 轻稀土供需格局因政策变化而显著改变，基本面强劲，上半年供给收缩 确定，氧化钕价格预计仍有较大上涨空间，市场对稀土全产业链的主导 地位与战略属性再认识提升了估值容忍度。 陆地战中钨作为穿甲弹核心材料受益，中国掌控全球 85%的钨供给，国 内矿山品位下滑，制造业刀具需求复苏，钨精矿价格有望突破 120 万元 /吨，关注中钨高新、厦门钨业等。 Q&A 在美伊冲突背景下，资源品板块的核心投资机会如何把握，主要逻辑链条是什 么？ 无论美伊冲突持续时间长短及最终收尾方式，对资源品板块整体均构成"戴维 斯 ...

有色金属行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 有色周报：地缘溢价抬升，战略金属表现 可期 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 核心观点：地缘溢价抬升，战略金属表现可期。伊以冲突爆发后，继续升温的不可控风 险仍然较大，避险属性预期对贵金属价格将形成明显支撑。工业金属方面，春节期间铜 铝库存大幅累积，随着下游进入复工复产，旺季需求成色将迎来检验，重点关注节后复 工的去库速度，将决定节后工业品价格强度。 投资标的： 相关标的：山东黄金(600547，未评级)、山金国际(000975，未评级)、中金黄金 (600489，未评级)、赤峰黄金(600988，买入)、紫金矿业(601899，买入)、洛阳钼业 (603993，未评级)、中国铝业(601600，未评级)、西部矿业(601168，未评级)、金诚 信(603979，未评级)。 风险提示 下游需求弱于预期、供给端大量释放、美联储降息进程不及预期等。 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色金属行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 01 日 看好维持 | 于嘉懿 | 执业证书编号：S0860525110005 | | --- | --- | | | yujiayi1@orientsec. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the precious metals sector due to rising geopolitical tensions and increased demand for safe-haven assets [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the escalation of the Middle East conflict, particularly the military actions between the U.S. and Iran, is expected to boost the performance of precious metals as investors seek refuge from market volatility [3]. - It emphasizes that Iran's significant share in global production of certain metals, such as strontium and direct reduced iron (DRI), could lead to price fluctuations in these commodities due to potential supply disruptions [4][6]. - The long-term outlook for precious metals remains positive, with expectations of a super cycle for gold driven by central bank purchases and sustained investment demand [3]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes that Iran accounts for approximately 56% of global strontium production, 24% of DRI production, and has significant copper and zinc reserves, which could be impacted by the ongoing conflict [4][5]. - It suggests that the geopolitical situation may exacerbate supply shortages for copper and other critical metals, urging investors to monitor these developments closely [6]. Aluminum Sector - The report discusses the potential tightening of the global aluminum supply due to the conflict, particularly if Iranian production is affected, which could impact around 600,000 tons of aluminum supply [12][14]. - It indicates that the aluminum market is currently stable, but geopolitical risks could lead to price volatility [11]. New Energy Metals - The report highlights Zimbabwe's ban on lithium exports, which is expected to tighten the global lithium market and support prices, as Zimbabwe is a key supplier [15][16]. - It suggests that the rise of resource nationalism may lead to increased control over strategic metals, impacting pricing dynamics in the market [15]. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends specific stocks in the precious metals sector, including Zhongjin Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, as well as companies in the copper and aluminum sectors such as Zijin Mining and China Hongqiao Group [13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including companies like Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and China Hongqiao [11]. Core Views - The geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, are expected to boost the safe-haven appeal of precious metals like gold and silver [2]. - Despite inventory accumulation in copper, prices remain strong due to ongoing demand and strategic reserve considerations from both China and the US [3]. - The aluminum market is anticipated to experience price fluctuations as the consumption season approaches, supported by macroeconomic factors [4]. - Nickel prices are on an upward trend due to supply constraints and increased inquiries from steel mills [5]. - Tin prices are expected to remain strong amid renewed concerns over supply disruptions from Myanmar [8]. - Lithium prices are rising due to export bans from Zimbabwe, which may tighten supply in the coming months [9]. - Cobalt prices are showing strength as demand recovers with the resumption of production [10]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Geopolitical tensions are driving up demand for gold and silver as safe-haven assets, with specific companies recommended for investment [2]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Despite a significant increase in global copper inventories, prices remain resilient due to strategic reserve initiatives and expectations of domestic demand recovery [3]. - **Aluminum**: The market is expected to see price volatility as downstream production resumes post-holiday, with macroeconomic conditions remaining favorable [4]. - **Nickel**: Prices have increased by 4.7% to 141,560 CNY/ton, driven by supply constraints and demand from steel manufacturers [5]. - **Tin**: Prices are expected to experience strong fluctuations due to supply concerns stemming from Myanmar's political situation [8]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Prices have surged, with battery-grade lithium carbonate reaching 174,000 CNY/ton, influenced by export restrictions from Zimbabwe [9]. - **Cobalt**: The price of cobalt has risen by 3.4% to 440,000 CNY/ton, supported by recovering demand as production resumes [10]. Key Companies - Recommended companies for investment include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and China Hongqiao, among others, reflecting strong growth potential in the non-ferrous metals sector [11].