【国联民生交运*周报260126】即时零售再起势，重视顺丰同城布局机会；航空量价环比回升预热春运 #阿里即时零售领域长期投入的决心坚定，抖音、拼多多入局，即时零售再起势。 1）阿里：持续加码大消费和服务电商赛道，即时零售领域长期投入的决心坚定。 25H2淘宝闪购日订单峰值达1.2亿单，8月周度日均订单突破8000万单。 2025Q3，即时零售收入同比增长60%。 【国联民生交运*周报260126】即时零售再起势，重视顺丰同城布局机会；航空量价环比回升预热春运 #阿里即时零售领域长期投入的决心坚定，抖音、拼多多入局，即时零售再起势。 1）阿里：持续加码大消费和服务电商赛道，即时零售领域长期投入的决心坚定。 25H2淘宝闪购日订单峰值达1.2亿单，8月周度日均订单突破8000万单。 2025Q3，即时零售收入同比增长60%。 2）抖音&拼多多：抖音整合即时零售业务，抖音超市合并至小时达，开展"直播带货 #顺丰同城：即时零售"必争之地"趋势渐明，重视顺丰同城布局机会。 公司为独立第三方即配龙头，享即配行业规模持续快速扩张和快递业务量高增双β红利，2030年中国即时零售市场 规模有望超过2万亿元，在品牌化趋势下其竞争 ...

特朗普再发关税威胁。 当地时间1月26日（周一），美股三大指数集体收涨，纳指涨0.43%，道指涨0.64%，标普500指数 涨0.5%。苹果、Meta Platforms和微软等公司普遍上涨，这几家公司均将在本周公布财报。具体来 看，微软、Meta Platforms和特斯拉将于当地时间周三公布财报，苹果紧随其后于当地时间周四公 布。 其他消息方面，美国总统特朗普26日在社交媒体上宣布，由于韩国国会仍未批准两国政府此前达 成的贸易协议，美国对韩国汽车、木材、药品的进口关税以及其他"对等关税"的税率将从15%提 高至25%。 大型科技股涨跌互现 大型科技股涨跌互现。思科涨超3%，苹果、甲骨文涨近3%，Meta涨超2%，阿斯麦、谷歌-A、 IBM涨超1%；英特尔跌超5%，AMD、特斯拉跌超3%，美光科技跌超2%，英伟达、台积电小幅 下跌。 苹果收高2.97%，公司将于当地时间周四盘后公布最新财报。近日，摩根大通上调苹果目标价， 预测其iPhone 17强劲需求与成本控制将推动业绩超预期。摩根大通表示，iPhone需求好于预期以 及运营支出下降，可能推动苹果业绩超出市场预期。该行重申对这家科技巨头的"增持"评级，并 ...

Group 1 - The founder of Miaokelan Duo, Chai Xiu, has been removed from his positions as Vice Chairman, General Manager, and legal representative, while retaining his board member role. The new General Manager, Kuai Yulong, is appointed from Mengniu, which holds a 37% stake in the company [1] - Mengniu has initiated arbitration and taken control of overseas assets due to overdue debts from Jilin Yaohua Trading, which were guaranteed by a merger fund. Chai Xiu had previously promised to fully compensate for losses caused by the fund guarantee but has not fulfilled this commitment [1] - Miaokelan Duo experienced rapid growth in its cheese stick business, with a compound annual growth rate of over 50% from 2018 to 2021. The recent personnel changes are intertwined with the company's debt risks, raising market concerns [1] Group 2 - Procter & Gamble reported a 1% increase in net sales for Q2 of fiscal year 2026, but net profit decreased by 7%. The growth was primarily driven by price increases to offset declining sales volumes [3] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced that the wholesale and retail industry's added value is expected to reach 14.6 trillion yuan in 2025, a 5% year-on-year increase, accounting for 10.4% of GDP, marking a historical high [4] - A survey by the China Chain Store & Franchise Association indicated that 67% of chain supermarkets are expected to maintain or grow profits in 2025, a significant increase from 25% in 2024, reflecting an improvement in profitability [4] Group 3 - Sam's Club, Aldi, and Hema are set to expand their store openings in 2026, as traditional supermarkets face closures and new business models emerge. Membership and hard discount stores are leading the way [5] - ST Juewei, once a leading brand in the marinated food sector, is projected to incur a net loss of 160 million to 220 million yuan in 2025, marking its first annual loss since its listing in 2017 [7] - Heytea has remodeled over 130 stores in 2025, focusing on differentiated strategies and launching new product lines, while reducing collaboration with other brands [7] Group 4 - Haidilao reported a significant increase in customer traffic and sales of beef and lamb products, with over 1.6 million portions sold in three days during a cold snap [9] - Kudi Coffee has opened its first stores in France, Germany, and Spain, expanding its global presence to over 18,000 locations [9] - Walmart has signed an agreement to open its first Sam's Club store in Yunnan, indicating a strategic investment in the region [10] Group 5 - Dongpeng Beverage has signed a contract for its 14th production base in Chengdu, with an investment of 1 billion yuan to enhance supply capabilities in the southwest region [12] - Yili Group has been recognized in the Brand Finance 2026 Global Brand Value 500 list, with a brand value increase of 29.2%, ranking third in the global food industry [14] - JD.com has expanded its heated meal box service to 11 cities, enhancing its delivery capabilities with new technology [15]

Macro and Strategy - The macroeconomic report highlights the geopolitical shifts impacting asset pricing, particularly focusing on the U.S. involvement in Greenland as a strategic move for national security and resource control [8][9] - The report indicates that the EU's response to U.S. policies is limited due to its economic dependencies, particularly in pharmaceuticals and energy [8] - The analysis suggests a structural change in global asset pricing, with a shift towards hard assets and scarce resources as the new safety net for investments [9] Fixed Income Research - The public fund's convertible bond holdings decreased by 83 billion to 3,083 billion, a decline of 2.6%, which is less than the overall market contraction of 7% [16] - The average return for convertible bond funds in Q4 2025 was 0.86%, outperforming other active fund types, indicating a strong performance in a volatile market [17] - The report notes a significant increase in the issuance of long-term bonds, with trading activity in this segment becoming notably active [27][28] Industry and Company Insights - The aerospace industry report emphasizes the potential for commercial space ventures, particularly in rocket recovery, indicating a competitive landscape [3] - The chemical industry analysis points to a tightening supply-demand situation in the potassium chloride market, with expectations for demand and prices to exceed forecasts in 2026 [3] - The real estate sector commentary reflects a downturn in 2025 but anticipates positive signals in early 2026, suggesting a potential recovery [3] Financial Engineering - The financial engineering report indicates a trend of funds shifting from passive to active management, with a notable increase in the allocation to sectors like banking and military [17] - The report highlights the performance of various funds, with a median net value growth of 11.04% for top-performing convertible bond funds in Q4 2025 [18] Market Trends - The macroeconomic weekly report shows a GDP growth of 5.0% for 2025, with a notable slowdown in Q4 to 4.5%, but signs of recovery are emerging [11] - The report on the short-term pure bond funds indicates a reversal in asset growth, with total assets rising to 1,082.1 billion, reflecting a resilient market despite broader economic challenges [21][22]

Core Insights - The express delivery industry in China is projected to achieve a revenue of 1.5 trillion yuan and a volume of 198.95 billion packages by 2025, indicating a growth of 6.5% and 13.6% respectively [2] - The industry is expected to maintain a stable growth trajectory, enhancing its role in economic and social development [2] Industry Growth and Integration - The express delivery sector is increasingly integrating with modern agriculture and e-commerce, exemplified by the successful transportation of peony flowers, which has seen online sales rise from under 20% to 60% in three years [4][5] - The express delivery network has expanded significantly, with rural areas seeing a 1.5-fold increase in service points over the past five years, ensuring comprehensive coverage [5][8] Service Quality Improvement - The express delivery service quality index reached 650.8 in December 2025, with customer satisfaction improving to 85 points, reflecting a focus on enhancing service experiences [6][7] - New logistics solutions, such as temperature-controlled supply chains and dedicated transport routes, have been implemented to ensure the freshness of perishable goods [4][6] Sustainable Development Initiatives - The industry is shifting towards sustainable practices, emphasizing quality over speed and integrating advanced technologies like AI and automation to enhance operational efficiency [10][11] - Efforts are being made to improve the logistics network, particularly in rural areas, to support domestic circulation and ensure equitable access to postal services [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation and oil shipping sectors [4]. Core Insights - The aviation sector is expected to see record passenger flow during the Spring Festival, with a projected increase of approximately 5.3% year-on-year, reaching 9.5 billion trips in 2026. The report anticipates strong demand during the Spring Festival, with limited additional flights due to strict management by airlines [4]. - In the oil shipping sector, high oil freight rates are expected to persist, with a significant year-on-year increase in tanker profits anticipated for Q1 2026. The report highlights a bullish long-term outlook for oil shipping driven by global oil production growth and an aging fleet [4]. - The express delivery sector is projected to experience a growth rate of 14% in 2025, with a notable recovery in profitability driven by effective measures against excessive competition [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Aviation - The report forecasts a record high in passenger flow during the Spring Festival, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% in civil aviation passenger transport [4][5]. - The pre-sale trends for airline tickets are positive, and the overall flight capacity increase during the Spring Festival is expected to be limited, benefiting airline revenue management [4]. - The report suggests a strategic investment in the aviation sector, highlighting companies such as Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and Spring Airlines as potential beneficiaries [4]. Oil Shipping - Oil freight rates are expected to remain high, with a significant increase in tanker profits projected for Q1 2026 due to rising oil production from the Middle East and South America [4]. - The report emphasizes the long-term bullish logic for oil shipping, driven by increased demand and a tightening supply due to an aging fleet [4]. - Recommended companies in the oil shipping sector include COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation and China Merchants Energy Shipping [4]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is expected to see a growth rate of 14% in 2025, with a decline in growth rate towards the end of the year [4]. - The report notes that measures against excessive competition have led to a recovery in profitability for leading companies in the sector [4]. - Companies such as SF Express and ZTO Express are highlighted as key players to watch in this sector [4].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for key companies including SF Holding, Cao Cao Travel, and Jitu Express [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the explosive growth of instant retail driven by major companies' investments, suggesting that investors should seize opportunities in SF Express's urban delivery segment [1]. - The logistics sector is expected to benefit from the rapid growth of overseas e-commerce and the ongoing recovery in domestic demand, with a focus on companies like Jitu Express and Zhongtong Express [3][18]. - The aviation sector is projected to see a historical high in passenger volume during the 2026 Spring Festival, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 5.3% [11][12]. Summary by Sections Weekly View and Market Review - The transportation sector index rose by 1.76%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.93 percentage points [21]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included warehousing logistics, road freight, and public transport, with increases of 6.05%, 5.91%, and 4.09% respectively [21]. Aviation - The Civil Aviation Administration of China forecasts a record 95 million passengers during the 2026 Spring Festival, with domestic and international routes showing significant growth [11][12]. - The aviation sector is expected to maintain a positive outlook due to low supply growth and recovering demand, with a focus on business travel and international flight recovery [12]. Shipping and Ports - The VLCC market is experiencing high rates due to geopolitical risks, with daily rates reaching $107,937 on the Middle East route [13]. - Dry bulk freight rates are recovering, with the BDI index reaching 1,762 points [14]. - The report emphasizes the potential for LNG transport to enter a different economic cycle, highlighting companies like CIMC Anrui [16]. Logistics - The report identifies two main investment themes in the express delivery sector: overseas expansion driven by e-commerce growth and domestic market consolidation amid competitive pressures [3][18]. - In December 2025, the express delivery industry handled 18.2 billion packages, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.3% [19]. - The report notes a divergence in performance among leading express companies, with Zhongtong and YTO showing growth while SF Express faced a decline due to strategic business adjustments [20].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the transportation sector, but it recommends specific companies such as SF Express and China Southern Airlines based on their performance and market conditions [2][4]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector saw a 2.3% year-on-year growth in business volume in December, with major companies benefiting from price increases amid reduced competition. The total express business revenue for 2025 is projected to reach 1.5 trillion yuan, a 6.5% increase year-on-year [2]. - The logistics sector is focusing on smart logistics, with companies like Haichen Co. being recommended due to improved demand [3]. - The aviation sector is experiencing a slight decline in flight volumes, but ticket prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints and improved demand, with recommendations for airlines like Air China and China Southern Airlines [4]. - The shipping sector shows mixed signals, with container shipping rates declining while oil transport rates are increasing significantly [5]. Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index increased by 1.6% during the week of January 17-23, 2026, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 0.6% [1][13]. Express Delivery - In December, the express delivery business volume reached 182.1 million pieces, a 2.3% increase year-on-year. The total revenue for the express delivery sector in 2025 is expected to be 1.5 trillion yuan, with a 6.5% growth [2]. Logistics - The chemical product price index remained stable, and the logistics sector is focusing on smart logistics, with Haichen Co. recommended for its growth potential [3]. Aviation and Airports - The average daily flights decreased by 9.19% year-on-year, but ticket prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints. Recommendations include Air China and China Southern Airlines [4][59]. Shipping - The container shipping index showed a slight decline, with the CCFI at 1208.75 points, down 0.1% week-on-week and down 22.4% year-on-year. However, oil transport rates are increasing, with the BDTI index rising by 12.5% week-on-week [5][41]. Road and Rail - The national highway freight traffic saw a slight increase of 1.87% week-on-week, while the railway passenger volume increased by 8.52% year-on-year [81].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the transportation industry [2] Core Views - The shipping sector is experiencing high oil tanker rates and improving bulk freight rates, while the express delivery industry is expected to see a growth rate of 13.6% year-on-year in 2025 [1][6][19] Shipping - Oil tanker rates remain high, influenced by geopolitical tensions, with the market sentiment showing signs of volatility [6][12] - The dry bulk shipping market is showing signs of improvement, with increased inquiries from Australian miners and rising grain prices from South America [14][15] - Key stocks to focus on include COSCO Shipping Energy, China Merchants Energy, Haitong Development, and Pacific Shipping [6][15] Infrastructure - Weekly data shows a slight increase in truck traffic, with 56.12 million vehicles recorded, a 1.87% increase week-on-week, but a 1.6% decrease year-on-year [16][17] - Port throughput reached 261.318 million tons, a 6.2% increase year-on-year, while container throughput increased by 7.5% [16][17] - Recommended stocks include Anhui Expressway, which is seen as a stable cash flow asset with low current valuations [17] Express Delivery - The express delivery industry saw a total volume of 199 billion items in 2025, a 13.6% increase year-on-year, with December showing a 2.3% increase [18][19] - The competitive landscape is expected to stabilize, with major companies like SF Express and ZTO Express showing potential for profit growth in 2026 [19] - Recommended stocks include SF Express, ZTO Express, and YTO Express [19] Aviation - The aviation sector is currently in a transitional phase due to the Spring Festival timing, with passenger numbers showing a 9.9% year-on-year decrease [20][21] - The industry is expected to benefit from improved supply-demand dynamics and lower fuel prices in 2026 [21] - Key metrics to monitor include passenger volume and ticket pricing trends during the Spring Festival [21] Logistics - The logistics sector is seeing fluctuations in air freight prices, with a recent decrease of 2% week-on-week but a 7.4% increase year-on-year [22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, recommending companies such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in charter rates for VLCCs, which rose by 4.62% to $62,250 per day, and Cape rates increased by 5.37% to $26,475 per day, indicating a strong correlation between commodity prices and shipping rates [3]. - New ship prices are rising alongside second-hand ship prices, with the new ship composite index increasing by 0.07 to 184.76 points, suggesting a favorable market for shipbuilders [3]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the shipping market, particularly in oil and bulk shipping, with expectations of continued demand driven by geopolitical factors and commodity price fluctuations [3]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market Performance - The shipping index increased by 1.76%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.38 percentage points [4]. - The coastal dry bulk freight index in China rose by 0.84%, while the Shanghai export container freight index fell by 7.39% [4]. Oil Shipping - VLCC rates are currently around $100,000 per day, with a recent decline of 11% in average rates to $105,090 per day, indicating potential volatility in the market [3]. - The report notes that while VLCC rates may adjust, smaller oil tanker rates remain supported due to high demand [3]. Dry Bulk Shipping - The report indicates a rebound in dry bulk rates, particularly driven by increased grain exports from South America, with the BDI index recording a 12.4% increase [3]. - Capesize rates increased by 16.1%, reflecting strong demand in the Pacific market [3]. Container Shipping - The report observes a seasonal decline in container shipping rates as the peak season ends, with the SCFI index dropping by 7.4% [3]. - The resumption of services in the Red Sea has been noted, but the market remains cautious due to geopolitical uncertainties [3]. Air Transportation - The report highlights a significant supply constraint in aircraft manufacturing, with an aging fleet and increasing passenger demand expected to enhance airline profitability [3]. - Airlines are recommended for investment due to their strong demand elasticity and potential for significant earnings growth [3]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The report anticipates a concentration of market share and profits among leading express delivery companies, with a focus on ZTO Express and YTO Express [3]. - The logistics sector shows resilience, with steady growth in freight volumes reported [3].