Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the energy storage and lithium battery industry, highlighting the expected growth and transformation driven by energy transition and AI demand [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **AI and Energy Storage Demand**: The demand for energy storage in data centers is expected to surge due to the rapid increase in AI computing power and the slow expansion of the power grid in Europe and the US. By 2026, the AI-related energy storage demand in the US is projected to reach 59 GWh, with 46 GWh for front-of-the-meter and 13 GWh for behind-the-meter applications [1][2][11]. - **Shift in Data Center Energy Needs**: Data centers are transitioning from using energy storage primarily as backup power to utilizing it for peak shaving, frequency regulation, and grid support. Current requirements include at least 2 hours of storage, with some aggressive setups using lithium batteries for 6-8 hours of power [4]. - **Global Energy Storage Market Growth**: The global energy storage market is expected to reach 438 GWh by 2025, with China accounting for 250 GWh, reflecting a 67% year-on-year growth. The US market is projected to reach 70 GWh, and Europe 51 GWh [7][8]. - **Impact of US Trade Policies**: The US "Inflation Reduction Act" has introduced new standards that limit foreign ownership in companies participating in subsidy programs, pushing the US market to seek supply chains outside of China, although reliance on Chinese supply chains will remain high in 2026 [6][11]. Additional Important Insights - **European Net Zero Industrial Act**: This act encourages the use of local production capacities and scores non-EU supply chains, benefiting Chinese companies establishing factories in Europe. The cost of solar plus storage has fallen below that of gas turbines, leading to an expected installation growth rate of over 70% in 2026 [3][10]. - **Lithium Battery Industry Recovery**: The lithium battery industry is in a recovery phase, with expected shipment growth of 30-50% in 2026. The industry is projected to enter a prosperous phase, with a 25% overall growth rate, driven by a 15% increase in power demand and a 56% increase in storage demand [3][22]. - **Emerging Markets**: Regions such as Australia, the Middle East, and Latin America are showing strong growth potential in energy storage, with Australia increasing its capacity targets and significant projects underway in the Middle East and Chile [12][13]. - **Supply Chain Dynamics**: The supply chain for lithium battery materials is expected to see significant price increases, particularly in lithium hexafluorophosphate and separators, which are crucial for battery production. The current market conditions suggest a tight balance in supply and demand for these materials [27][29]. Recommendations for Investment - Companies to watch include CATL, EVE Energy, and Xinwangda, which are positioned well in the energy storage and lithium battery markets. The separator sector is also highlighted as a key area for investment due to its high profit margins and limited new capacity until 2028 [24][25]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the energy storage and lithium battery industry's current state and future outlook.

12月26日早盘，A股锂电池板块开盘大涨，泰尔股份、丰元股份、天奇股份涨停，邵阳液压、C天溯、宏源药业等涨幅居前。 消息面上，26日早盘，碳酸锂主力合约盘中强势突破13万关口，一度涨超8%，创2023年11月以来新高。截至发稿仍涨6.66%，报12.876万元/吨。 | 碳酸锂主连 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ા | < > | lcm 广期所 ▼ | | | | | 128760 37 | 124220 最高 130800 最低 124220 | | | | | | -4013 | 18.8万 持仓 60.3万 日增 | 666% 8040 芯于 | | | | | 産を | 120720 | 结算 | 昨结 | l | | | 更多,◎ | 日Ｋ | 月Ｋ | 五日 | 園Ｋ | 分时 | | 8.35% 卖 1 128760 | 130 B00 | 1 | | | | | 买1 128700 | 5 | | | | | | 时 | 价 | 를 | | | | | 9:42 128920 | | | | | | | 9:42 12 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a sustained high growth in electric vehicle (EV) sales across nine European countries in November 2025, with a total of 281,000 new energy vehicles sold, representing a year-on-year increase of 38.6% and a penetration rate of 34.3%, up by 9.0 percentage points [1][2]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In November 2025, battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales reached 190,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 40.5%, while plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) sales totaled 91,000 units, up by 35.0% [1][2]. - Germany's BEV sales were 56,000 units, a significant year-on-year increase of 58.5%, and PHEV sales were 32,000 units, up by 57.4% [2][3]. - France's BEV sales reached 34,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 47.5%, with a penetration rate of 25.8%, an increase of 8.4 percentage points [3]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The implementation of subsidies in France and Italy has led to a rapid increase in BEV sales, with Italy experiencing a remarkable year-on-year growth of 131.4% in BEV sales, totaling 15,000 units [3]. - The UK has restarted EV subsidies and is under pressure from zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) targets, which is expected to sustain growth in EV sales in the coming months [2][3]. - Norway is anticipated to see a surge in electric vehicle purchases as the year-end approaches, driven by consumer demand [1][2]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The European Commission's proposal to adjust the 2035 emission reduction targets is not expected to hinder the long-term trend of electrification in Europe; instead, it may promote sales of small electric vehicles [4]. - New generations of pure electric models are set to be launched by various automakers from late 2025 to the first half of 2026, which is likely to boost the European EV market [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Investment recommendations include companies involved in lithium batteries, lithium materials, battery structural components, power/electric drive systems, automotive safety components, and charging infrastructure [4]. - Specific companies recommended for investment in lithium batteries include CATL, EVE Energy, and Xinwangda, while lithium material companies include Hunan Youneng and Tianci Materials [4].

Investment Operations - Unisoc plans to jointly invest with a subsidiary of CATL to establish a company focused on automotive domain control chips [1] - Kede CNC's Shenyang factory is expected to achieve an annual production capacity of approximately 60 units upon reaching full capacity [1] Contracts and Collaborations - Hengsheng Energy's subsidiary has signed a sample testing agreement with chip technology developer H Company for diamond heat dissipation products [1] - Xinwanda and Zhongwei Co. have signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement for solid-state batteries [1][1] - Ruisheng Intelligent has secured a procurement project for domestic computing power equipment and supporting services worth 152 million yuan [1] - A consortium including Zhongyou Engineering has signed a 424 million USD EPC contract with Kazakhstan's national oil and gas chemical company [1] Capital Operations - Banachian plans to acquire 100% of Zhonglian Century, which is expected to constitute a major asset restructuring, with stock resuming trading on December 26 [1] - Jinlongyu intends to establish a 1.5 billion yuan industrial merger and acquisition fund, focusing on investments and acquisitions in the solid-state battery industry chain [1] - ST Jianyi's controlling shareholder has waived the company's 1.4 billion yuan principal debt and 8.8967 million yuan interest, and donated 400 million yuan in cash assets [1] Industry Developments - Shaanxi Huada reports that revenue from commercial satellites is increasing year by year [1] - Zhaochi Co. expects to achieve small batch shipments of 400G/800G high-speed optical modules by the second quarter of 2026 [1] - Zhongding Co. plans to establish a joint venture to assemble joints for robotic products to support complete machine assembly [1] - Changsheng Bearing's products can be applied to satellite platform solar wing deployment mechanisms and antenna pointing mechanisms [1] - Hunan Youneng plans to conduct maintenance on some production lines, expecting a reduction in phosphate positive electrode material production by 15,000 to 35,000 tons [1] - Wanrun New Energy anticipates a reduction in lithium iron phosphate production by 5,000 to 20,000 tons due to maintenance on some production lines [1] - Cangge Mining plans to produce 11,000 tons of lithium carbonate in the fiscal year 2026 [1] Additional Contracts - Senyuan Co. has signed a 26.78 million yuan contract for the integration construction of a computing power cluster with an affiliated party [2] - Haike New Source has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Fainlight, expecting a supply of 270,000 tons of electrolyte solvents and additives [2]

Macroeconomic Dynamics - The offshore RMB/USD exchange rate has surpassed the 7.0 mark, benefiting industries reliant on raw material imports and those with high dollar-denominated debt costs [1] Satellite Internet - Shanghai has introduced measures to support the aerospace industry [1] - Blue Arrow Aerospace plans to successfully recover reusable boosters by mid-2026 [1] - The Ministry of Defense has expressed concerns over Japan's implementation of an offensive space policy [1] - Related ETF: Satellite Industry ETF (on-market: 159218) [1] Robotics - Sell-side views indicate an improvement in the sector's chip structure, with leading sentiment catalysts suggesting a potential breakout phase in January [1] - Related ETF: Robotics Index ETF (on-market: 560770, off-market link: 020482) [1] New Energy - Leading silicon wafer companies have jointly raised their prices significantly [1] - Reports suggest that Tianqi Lithium's spot trading settlement prices will no longer reference SMM prices [1] - Hunan Youneng and Wanrun New Energy have announced production halts for maintenance [1] - CATL has signed a five-year contract with South Korea's Enchem for an average annual supply of 70,000 tons of electrolyte [1] - Related ETF: Battery ETF (on-market: 561910, off-market link: 016020) [1] Artificial Intelligence - Sell-side analysts note a muted market reaction to high growth demand guidance for 2027 from giants like Google and Nvidia [1] - Nvidia is strengthening its moat in the AI inference market through technology licensing [1] - Samsung Electronics plans to develop its own GPUs for edge AI products by 2027 [1] - Related ETFs: Cloud Computing ETF (on-market: 159890, off-market link: 021716), Semiconductor Equipment ETF (on-market: 561980, off-market link: 020464) [1] Semiconductors - Shanghai Micro Electronics has won a bid for a stepper lithography machine valued at approximately 110 million yuan [1] - Sell-side analysts believe there is an upward trend in SiC demand, with power foundries beginning to raise prices [1] - Related ETF: Semiconductor Equipment ETF (on-market: 561980, off-market link: 020464) [1] Market Observation - On December 25, trading volume reached 1.9245 trillion yuan, an increase of 44.3 billion yuan [1] - The market has experienced seven consecutive days of gains, with sectors such as military, light industry, and machinery leading the rally [1] - Key sectors including satellites, robotics, AI liquid cooling, and lithium batteries have shown active performance, while low-position sectors like solid-state and nuclear fusion are starting to rotate [1] - Market sentiment is high, with the index potentially challenging the 4000-point mark, but attention is needed on potential pullback risks after consecutive gains [1]

2025 年 12 月 26 日 碳酸锂：正极大厂检修，关注回调风险 | | 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | liuhongru@gtht.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2601合约（收盘价） | 121,540 | -1,220 | 17,100 | 24,560 | 26,140 | 48,200 | | | | 2601合约（成交量） | 33,379 | 2,991 | -4,252 | -21,819 | -477,900 | -77,381 | | | | 2601合约（持仓量） | 26,492 | -11,509 | -42,377 | -92,245 | -316,707 | -147,383 | | | ...

2025年12月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：通胀温和回落 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位调整 | 3 | | 铜：市场情绪偏暖，支撑价格上涨 | 5 | | 锌：横盘震荡 | 7 | | 铅：库存持续减少，支撑价格 | 9 | | 锡：供应再出扰动 | 10 | | 铝：震荡偏强 | 12 | | 氧化铝：持续磨底 | 12 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 12 | | 铂：多头情绪占优 | 14 | | 钯：震荡上行 | 14 | | 镍：盘面资金博弈，镍价宽幅震荡 | 16 | | 不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 | 16 | | 碳酸锂：正极大厂检修，关注回调风险 | 18 | | 工业硅：关注情绪带动 | 20 | | 多晶硅：硅片价格报涨 | 20 | | 铁矿石：高位反复 | 22 | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 23 | | 硅铁：市场信息扰动，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 锰硅：市场信息扰动，宽幅震荡 | 25 | | 焦炭：震荡反复 | 27 | | 焦煤：震荡反复 | 27 | | 原木：低 ...

Copper - The domestic copper futures rose by 2.51% to 97,680 CNY/ton, reaching a historical high [2][7] - Japan plans to introduce its largest initial budget in fiscal 2026, totaling approximately 122.3 trillion JPY, a 6.3% increase from fiscal 2025, significantly exceeding current inflation levels [2][7] - The offshore RMB against the USD broke the 7.0 mark, while the onshore RMB surpassed 7.01, both reaching new highs since September 2024 [2][7] - Domestic refined copper social inventory increased by 25,200 tons to 193,600 tons [2][7] - Demand for copper remains cautious as downstream enterprises focus on essential purchases, with expectations of a recovery in global economic growth next year [2][7] - Low inventory and resilient demand provide support, but high prices may suppress some physical buying, and the market may enter a phase of inventory accumulation as the year-end approaches [2][7] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel rose by 0.13% to 15,660 USD/ton, while domestic nickel increased by 1.35% to 126,800 CNY/ton [3][7] - SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 601 tons to 37,827 tons [3][7] - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association indicated a significant reduction in nickel ore production targets for 2026, down to approximately 250 million tons from 379 million tons in 2025 [3][7] - The domestic social inventory of nickel showed slight accumulation, while LME inventory decreased [3][7] - The market sentiment is positive, but actual implementation of news remains uncertain [3][7] Aluminum & Related Products - The price of alumina fluctuated weakly, settling at 2,635 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.38% [4][8] - Domestic aluminum futures showed a strong trend, with prices reaching 22,305 CNY/ton, up by 0.61% [4][8] - The aluminum ingot price in Foshan fell to 21,880 CNY/ton, with a widening spot discount [4][8] - Increased shipments from several mines and the resumption of large-scale mining operations provide support for future ore arrivals [4][8] - The aluminum market may face inventory accumulation pressure as macroeconomic sentiment stabilizes [4][8] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a slight increase, with the main contract settling at 8,835 CNY/ton, up by 0.28% [4][10] - Polysilicon prices fluctuated, with the main contract at 60,760 CNY/ton, rising by 4.8% [4][10] - Expectations of further environmental production cuts in the Northwest may support industrial silicon prices [4][10] - The market for photovoltaic materials is experiencing upward price adjustments due to rising silver prices [4][10] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures rose by 0.44% to 123,520 CNY/ton, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices increasing by 3,400 CNY/ton to 104,900 CNY/ton [5][11] - Supply-side production increased by 116 tons to 22,161 tons, with lithium spodumene production rising by 60 tons [5][11] - Weekly inventory decreased by 652 tons to 109,773 tons, with downstream inventory dropping by 239 tons [5][11] - Market sentiment improved, but pricing mechanisms and transmission pressures remain a concern for some enterprises [5][11]

2025年12月26日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：盘面资金博弈，镍价宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：正极大厂检修，关注回调风险 | 4 | | 工业硅：关注情绪带动 | 6 | | 多晶硅：硅片价格报涨 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 26 日 镍：盘面资金博弈，镍价宽幅震荡 不锈钢：基本面供需双弱，印尼镍矿消息扰动 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 125,410 | -2,590 | 11,470 | 9,540 | 9,250 | 3,960 | | 期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)**: Short - term shock [12] - **US Stock Index Futures**: Expected to run with a slight upward bias in a volatile manner [13] - **Stock Index Futures**: The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to hit 4000 points in the short term, and it is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in various stock indices [3][15] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Long - term bonds are expected to turn from shock to rise, and it is recommended that allocation investors buy when interest rates rise, and trading investors buy on dips and exit quickly [17][18] - **Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil)**: Palm oil has completed bottom - building, and it is recommended to consider going long after referring to December supply - demand data [19][20] - **Black Metals (Steam Coal)**: Coal prices are expected to continue to decline in the short term [21] - **Black Metals (Iron Ore)**: The short - term fundamentals are under pressure, and it is expected to be in a weak shock [22][23] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lead)**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term both for unilateral trading and arbitrage [24] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc)**: In the medium term, it is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks; for arbitrage, long - short spreads can continue to be held, and an internal - external reverse arbitrage strategy is appropriate [27] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate)**: The current fundamentals are weakening, pay attention to short - term correction pressure, and it is recommended to go long on corrections in the medium term [29][30] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel)**: It is expected to return to a shock trend. If the RKAB quota is only 250 million tons, there will be significant upside potential [33] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Tin)**: The short - term supply tension has eased, and there is pressure on the unilateral upward movement of prices. Be wary of price drops when the capital boom fades [38] - **Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions)**: High short - term market risk [40] - **Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda)**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction has eased, but there may be pressure to reduce prices to clear inventory in the future, and the rebound height is limited [44][45] - **Energy Chemicals (PVC)**: The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to be substantially resolved before the Spring Festival, and the short - term rebound pressure is high. In 2026, the supply - demand is expected to improve marginally [48] - **Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash)**: In the medium term, it is recommended to take a bearish view and go short on far - month contracts on rallies [50] - **Energy Chemicals (Float Glass)**: The glass fundamentals are still in surplus, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [51] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks are rising, with Israel warning of a possible strike on Iran, which may affect the short - term trend of the US dollar index [12] - The US plans to impose 301 tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products in 2027, but the macro environment is still favorable for US stocks in the short term [13] - The A - share market is rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index recording 7 consecutive positive days, and it is expected to hit 4000 points in the short term [3][15] - The central bank has carried out reverse repurchase operations, with loose funds in the short - term and short - term bonds strengthening. Long - term bonds are expected to turn from shock to rise [16][17] - The prices of some commodities are under pressure. For example, steam coal prices are expected to continue to fall, and iron ore prices are in a weak shock [21][22] - The supply - demand situation of some commodities is complex. For example, the supply - demand contradiction of PVC is difficult to be resolved before the Spring Festival, while the supply - demand of palm oil shows signs of improvement [19][48] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)) - **News**: Israel warns of a possible strike on Iran, and Ukraine uses British missiles to attack a Russian refinery [10][12] - **Comment**: The possibility of Israel attacking Iran has increased significantly, and geopolitical risks have risen. The US dollar index is expected to be in a short - term shock [12] 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - **News**: The US plans to impose 301 tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products in 2027, and China has protested [13] - **Comment**: The market has digested key economic data, and the optimistic expectations for interest rate cuts and economic soft - landing are still strong. The macro environment is favorable for US stocks, which are expected to run with a slight upward bias in a volatile manner [13] 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - **News**: The new construction and renovation of old urban communities in the first 11 months have completed the annual plan [14] - **Comment**: The A - share market is rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index recording 7 consecutive positive days, and it is expected to hit 4000 points in the short term [3][15] 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - **News**: The central bank has carried out 177.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations [16] - **Comment**: The central bank's open - market operations have led to loose funds, short - term bonds have strengthened, and long - term bonds are expected to turn from shock to rise [16][17] 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - **News**: Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 25 increased by 1.6% month - on - month [19] - **Comment**: The palm oil market shows signs of supply pressure relief, and it is recommended to consider going long after referring to December supply - demand data [19][20] 3.2.2 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - **News**: The price of steam coal in the northern port market is running weakly [21] - **Comment**: Due to warm winter weather, demand is weak, inventory is high, and coal prices are expected to continue to fall in the short term [21] 3.2.3 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - **News**: The new construction and renovation of 2.58 million old urban communities have been started from January to November [22] - **Comment**: The short - term fundamentals of iron ore are under pressure, with expected decline in molten iron output and a weak shock trend [22][23] 3.2.4 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - **News**: The LME 0 - 3 lead is at a discount of $42.3 per ton, and the social inventory of lead ingots has decreased [23] - **Comment**: The supply and demand of lead are both weak, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [24] 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - **News**: The LME 0 - 3 zinc is at a discount of $29.14 per ton, and the domestic inventory of zinc ingots has decreased [25] - **Comment**: In the short term, the fundamentals of zinc are less contradictory, and the price is mainly affected by the macro. In the medium term, zinc prices are likely to rise [26][27] 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - **News**: Some companies plan to carry out maintenance in January, which will affect the output of cathode materials [28][29] - **Comment**: The current fundamentals of lithium carbonate are weakening, pay attention to short - term correction pressure, and it is recommended to go long on corrections in the medium term [29][30] 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - **News**: Zhefu Holding's nickel sulfate production line has been put into operation, and APNI plans to reduce nickel ore production in 2026 [31][32] - **Comment**: The market is skeptical about APNI's plan. The nickel price is expected to return to a shock trend, and there will be significant upside potential if the quota is only 250 million tons [32][33] 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - **News**: The US will not impose additional tariffs on Chinese chips in the next 18 months, and the LME 0 - 3 tin is at a premium [34][35] - **Comment**: The short - term supply tension of tin has eased, and there is pressure on the unilateral upward movement of prices. Be wary of price drops when the capital boom fades [36][38] 3.2.9 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - **News**: The closing price of CEA on December 25 was 72.58 yuan per ton, up 5.36% [39] - **Comment**: The short - term market risk of carbon emissions is high [40] 3.2.10 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - **News**: The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is at a low level [41] - **Comment**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction of caustic soda has eased, but there may be pressure to reduce prices to clear inventory in the future, and the rebound height is limited [44][45] 3.2.11 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - **News**: The domestic PVC powder market price is in a range shock [46] - **Comment**: The supply - demand contradiction of PVC is difficult to be substantially resolved before the Spring Festival, and the short - term rebound pressure is high. In 2026, the supply - demand is expected to improve marginally [48] 3.2.12 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - **News**: The inventory of soda ash manufacturers has decreased this week [49] - **Comment**: In the medium term, soda ash is recommended to be taken with a bearish view, and it is advisable to go short on far - month contracts on rallies [50] 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - **News**: The inventory of float glass manufacturers has changed little this week [51] - **Comment**: The glass fundamentals are still in surplus, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [51]