Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint indicates that recent liquidity shocks in overseas markets, driven by concerns over the AI software bubble and subsequent momentum selling, have led to significant volatility in equities, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. It suggests that some assets may have been "wrongly killed" due to these liquidity shocks, as the macroeconomic fundamentals and broad liquidity environment have not changed significantly [1][13] - The report anticipates that the upcoming U.S. non-farm employment and CPI data for January may present upward risks, potentially reversing the slight increase in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts observed this week [1][13] Financial Products - The report highlights that overseas market liquidity shows signs of stabilization, which may improve market sentiment. It predicts a positive outlook for the A-share market in February, with a historical probability of 78.57% for an increase following a macro timing model score of 0 [1][16] - Fund allocation recommendations suggest a balanced ETF configuration due to expected short-term market fluctuations, with a focus on sectors like chemicals and electric grid equipment, which continue to see increasing fund sizes [1][16] Commodity Market - The report discusses the impact of liquidity shocks on commodity prices, noting that certain commodities, which rely on supply-demand improvements, have been "wrongly hurt" but may return to fundamental pricing logic as market conditions stabilize [2][17] - It emphasizes that the recent volatility in silver and other precious metals indicates a potential end to the liquidity shock, with silver becoming a key indicator of market sentiment [2][17] Environmental Industry - The report stresses the importance of advancing the national carbon market and outlines investment recommendations in clean energy, energy conservation, and recycling sectors. It highlights specific companies such as Longjing Environmental and others involved in renewable energy and waste management [6][10] Non-Banking Financial Sector - The report notes a recovery in the IPO and refinancing market, with significant year-on-year growth in both areas. It indicates that the capital market reforms and increased market activity are expected to benefit brokerage firms' investment banking revenues [9] AI Industry and Bond Financing - The report focuses on the AI industry, highlighting the need for a diversified financing system to support technology companies, particularly private firms with high growth potential. It reviews case studies of leading tech companies' bond financing paths to assess the feasibility of similar strategies in China [4]

| | i称 | 预告净利润上限 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (亿元) | | | 601899. SH | 紫金矿业 | 520 | 62 | | 603993. SH | 洛阳铝业 | 208 | 54 | | 603799. SH | 华友钻业 | 65 | 55 | | 600489. SH | 中金黄金 | 54 | 59 | | 600547. SH | 山东黄金 | 49 | 66 | | 600988. SH | 赤峰黄金 | 32 | 81 | | 600111. SH | 北方稀土 | 24 | 135 | | 002460. SZ | 赣锋锂业 | 17 | 180 | | 002155. SZ | 湖南黄金 | 16 | 90 | | 600392. SH | 盛和资源 | 9 | 339 | | 601020. SH | 华钰矿业 | 9 | 255 | | 002466. SZ | 天齐锂业 | 6 | 107 | | 601069. SH | 西部黄金 | 5 | 93 | | 002716. SZ | 湖南白银 | 4 | 127 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced fluctuations on February 11, with the non-ferrous sector showing resilience, particularly the ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652), which rose by 1.84% [1]. Non-Ferrous Sector Performance - The ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652) saw most of its constituent stocks rise, with Huayou Cobalt increasing over 3%, Luoyang Molybdenum up over 2%, and Zijin Mining and Northern Rare Earth both rising over 1% [2][3]. - The top ten constituent stocks of the ETF include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt, with respective weightings of 15.07%, 7.81%, and 4.38% [4]. International Precious Metals Market - On February 11, international precious metal prices increased, with spot gold reaching $5,050 per ounce and silver rising over 1% [5]. - The unexpected stagnation in U.S. retail sales data has fueled bets on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields [5]. Company Developments - Xiamen Tungsten announced plans to acquire a 39% stake in Jiujiang Dadi Mining, aiming to enhance its tungsten and molybdenum resource security [5]. - Luoyang Molybdenum completed the acquisition of a Brazilian gold mine for $1.015 billion, with plans to increase gold production significantly by 2030 [6]. Long-term Trends in Precious Metals - The trend of central banks purchasing gold is strengthening, with gold surpassing U.S. Treasuries as the largest reserve asset globally for the first time in 30 years [8]. - The expansion of fiscal policies and sovereign debt is injecting new momentum into the precious metals market, with gold's monetary properties expected to strengthen further [9]. Copper Market Outlook - The long-term outlook for copper prices remains optimistic due to supply constraints and increasing demand from AI data centers and energy storage [10][11]. - The anticipated supply disruptions in global copper mines could support a long-term upward trend in copper prices [11]. Investment Opportunities - The non-ferrous sector is highlighted as having significant investment value, driven by monetary easing, supply rigidity, and new demand dynamics [11]. - The ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652) is positioned to benefit from the super cycle in non-ferrous metals, with a high gold and copper content of 49% [13].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly the Huabao Non-Ferrous Metal ETF, is experiencing a resurgence, with a notable price increase of over 2% in intraday trading, reflecting strong market interest [1] - The Huabao Non-Ferrous Metal ETF (159876) has seen a price increase of 1.94%, with a trading volume of 987,000 and a total transaction amount of 328.3 million CNY, indicating robust trading activity [1] - Key stocks within the ETF include Xiamen Tungsten, which rose over 6%, and Guocheng Mining, which increased by more than 5%, showcasing strong performance among leading companies in the sector [1][2] Group 2 - The macroeconomic context includes pressures from U.S. President Trump on Iran, which may lead to increased geopolitical tensions and a rise in safe-haven assets like gold, which has surpassed 5050 USD per ounce [2] - The Chinese government is advocating for the rational development of rare earth resources and promoting technological advancements in key areas, aiming to establish a high ground in rare earth technology [3] - Huatai Securities notes that the recent rise in resource prices is driven by multiple factors, including global monetary easing and increased demand for metals like copper and silver due to AI data center construction [3] Group 3 - The Huabao Non-Ferrous Metal ETF and its linked funds cover a wide range of sectors including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, providing a comprehensive tool for investors to capitalize on the non-ferrous metal market [4] - The ETF is a financing and margin trading target, making it an efficient instrument for investors looking to gain exposure to the non-ferrous metal sector [4]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a resurgence, with the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) seeing a price increase of over 2% during trading, currently up by 1.94% [1][9]. Market Performance - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF is currently priced at 1.156, with a trading volume of 987 and an average price of 1.148 [2][10]. - Key stocks in the sector include Xiamen Tungsten, which rose over 6%, and Guocheng Mining, which increased by over 5%. Other notable gainers include Bowei Alloy and Jinchuan Group, both up by over 4% [11][12]. Macroeconomic Factors - U.S. President Trump is applying pressure on Iran, with a second round of negotiations expected next week. He is considering deploying a U.S. aircraft carrier to the Middle East if negotiations fail, which may heighten geopolitical tensions and increase safe-haven demand, leading to a rise in spot gold prices, which have reached $5050 per ounce [3][12]. Industry Insights - Domestic authorities emphasize the need for rational development of rare earth resources and the advancement of key core technologies, aiming to establish a high ground for rare earth technology innovation and expand its applications in new energy and new materials [4][13]. - Huatai Securities notes that the recent rise in resource prices is driven by multiple factors, including global monetary easing and increased demand for copper, silver, and rare metals due to AI data center construction. The long-term macro logic for non-ferrous metals remains intact, with a positive outlook for the sector [4][13]. Investment Tools - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF and its linked funds cover a wide range of sectors including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, providing a comprehensive approach to capturing the beta trends across different economic cycles. This ETF serves as an efficient tool for investors looking to gain exposure to the non-ferrous metal sector [5][14].

有色ETF银华（159871）紧密跟踪中证有色金属指数（930708.CSI），中证有色金属指数选取涉及有色 金属采选、有色金属冶炼与加工业务的上市公司作为样本，以反映有色金属类相关上市公司的整体表 现。 消息面上，据智通财经，零售"零增速"震惊华尔街，美联储年内降息预期迅速升温。美国商务部人口普 查局周二公布的数据显示，去年12月零售销售额与去年同期持平，大幅不及预期的上升0.4%，亦低于 11月0.6%的增速。美国商务部还下调了去年10月份的零售销售数据，表明在生活成本上升的挑战下， 美国消费者出现了疲态，部分原因归咎于进口关税导致的物价上涨。业内人士表示，"零售销售数据让 市场对在非农就业数据公布前做空（美债）更感不安。关键在于劳动力市场疲软是否足以重燃对经济衰 退的担忧，并推动美联储在未来一年大举宽松。" 2月11日，三大指数涨跌不一，有色金属板块走强。中证有色金属指数(930708.CSI)上涨1.85%，该指数 成分股中，厦门钨业与博威合金上涨超5%，国城矿业上涨超4%，雅化集团与华友钴业上涨超3%。 国泰海通证券指出，关注企稳后的有色金属布局机会。市场风险偏好下行，贵金属价格调整。铜战略收 储预 ...

证券分析师 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2026.02.11） 固定收益研究 净融资额继续增加，信用利差整体走阔——信用债周报 行业研究 春节假期临近，关注节后需求——金属行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2026/02/11） 晨会纪要（2026/02/11） 固定收益研究 净融资额继续增加，信用利差整体走阔——信用债周报 李济安（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150522060001） 王哲语（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150524070001） 1、核心观点 本期（2 月 2 日至 2 月 8 日）交易商协会公布的发行指导利率多数上行，整体变化幅度为-1 BP 至 4 BP。本 期信用债发行规模环比增长，企业债保持零发行，公司债、中期票据、定向工具发行金额增加，短期融资 券发行金额减少；信用债净融资额环比增加，短期融资券净融资额减少，其余品种净融资额增加，企业债 净融资额为负，其余品种 ...

智通财经APP获悉，申万宏源发布研报称，有色金属板块重点公司25Q4业绩增速不一。贵金属板块当 前估值处于历史中枢下沿，板块具备持续修复的动力及空间。铜供给相对刚性，价格中枢有望持续抬 高;铝供需格局持续趋紧，价格有望延续长期上行趋势。小金属方面，镍价中枢有望上行，锂价中枢稳 中有升，而钴价预计维持强势。降息后有色金属板块估值中枢有望上移，推荐供需格局稳定的新能源制 造业。 申万宏源主要观点如下： 铜：中国有色金属工业协会副秘书长段绍甫在新闻发布会上表示，除了储备精炼铜之外，也可研究将贸 易量大、容易变现的铜精矿纳入储备范围，同时，将扩大国家铜战略储备规模，探索进行商业储备机 制，通过财政贴息等方式选择国有骨干企业试行商业储备。短期铜矿生产扰动较大、非美库存紧张下预 计铜价偏强，基本面支撑扎实，长期电网投资增长、AI数据中心增长等，叠加铜供给相对刚性，价格 中枢有望持续抬高，建议关注紫金矿业、洛阳钼业、铜陵有色、金诚信、西部矿业、河钢资源。铝：国 内产能天花板限制下供需格局持续趋紧，铝价有望延续长期上行趋势，建议关注一体化完备标的(南山 铝业、天山铝业、中国宏桥、中国铝业、新疆众和)、以及弹性标的(云铝股份、 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the performance of the Invesco ETF (560290) in the non-ferrous metals sector, with a current opening price of 0.948 yuan and a 0.00% change [1] - The major holdings of the Invesco ETF include Zijin Mining, which opened up by 0.91%, and other companies like China Aluminum and Shandong Gold, which also showed positive movements [1] - The fund's performance benchmark is the CSI Nonferrous Metals Mining Theme Index, and since its establishment on January 26, 2026, it has recorded a return of -5.23% [1] Group 2 - The fund is managed by Invesco Great Wall Fund Management Co., with the fund manager being Gong Lili [1] - The article provides a detailed list of the opening price changes for various stocks within the ETF, indicating a mixed performance among the holdings [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the steel industry and the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Huayou Cobalt, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [8]. Core Insights - The steel market is expected to weaken due to seasonal factors, with a focus on demand recovery after the Spring Festival [19][20]. - Copper prices may rise if demand improves post-holiday, despite current inventory accumulation [40]. - The aluminum sector is influenced by macroeconomic sentiment, with a focus on demand recovery after the Spring Festival [46]. - Gold prices are supported by geopolitical risks, with potential upward pressure from U.S. Federal Reserve policies [52]. - The rare earth market is expected to maintain tight supply conditions, supporting prices for praseodymium and neodymium [66]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry - Steel production is declining as companies prepare for the Spring Festival, with total inventory increasing [19][21]. - As of February 6, the total steel inventory was 13.39 million tons, up 4.36% week-on-week, but down 19.42% year-on-year [28]. - The average price index for steel on February 6 was 3,414.24 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous week [37]. Copper Industry - Copper prices have decreased, but new orders are increasing, indicating seasonal demand characteristics [40]. - As of February 6, LME copper prices were $12,800/ton, down 3.96% from January 30 [43]. Aluminum Industry - Domestic bauxite supply is sufficient, but aluminum processing companies are reducing production due to price volatility and regulatory pressures [46]. - As of February 6, LME aluminum prices were $3,000/ton, down 2.09% from January 30 [47]. Precious Metals - Geopolitical tensions and U.S. economic data are influencing gold prices, which are expected to find support from these factors [52]. - As of February 6, COMEX gold prices were $4,988.60/oz, up 1.65% from January 30 [52]. Rare Earths - The supply of praseodymium and neodymium is expected to remain tight, supporting price stability [66]. - As of February 6, the price of praseodymium oxide was 757,500 yuan/ton, up 1.20% from January 30 [66].