2026.02.27 在中国本土仿制药以及国际减重药巨头的双重竞争的挑战下，诺和诺德的股价过去五个交易日累计下跌超过20%，近一个月来股价下跌超过44%，目前市 值不到1300亿美元，本周市值就蒸发约350亿美元。 中国市场是诺和诺德除美国市场之外最为关键的市场，也是全球减重药最大的市场之一。但中国市场也充满激烈的竞争，尤其是近年来日益崛起的电商平 台，已经成为减重药这类消费属性极强的药品的下一个竞技场。 本文字数：922，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 |第一财经钱童心 随着减重药巨头诺和诺德重磅GLP-1类药物司美格鲁肽在中国的核心分子专利即将于3月到期，一大批中国本土的司美格鲁肽仿制药正在获批路上。 2月27日港股开盘后，九源基因（2566.HK）股价一度上涨超过4%。该公司日前公告称，司美格鲁肽生物类似药吉可亲上市申请已获中国国家药监局正式 受理，本次申报的适应症为肥胖或超重人群的体重管理。 据公开信息，目前国内市场上包括九源基因、丽珠集团、华东医药、齐鲁制药、正大天晴在内的十多家本土制药公司的司美格鲁肽仿制药有望在不久的将 来上市，还有十余款处于三期临床，一场价格大战即将席卷。 针对市场关注的仿制药疗效， ...

随着减重药巨头诺和诺德重磅GLP-1类药物司美格鲁肽在中国的核心分子专利即将于3月到期，一大批 中国本土的司美格鲁肽仿制药正在获批路上。 2月27日港股开盘后，九源基因（2566.HK）股价一度上涨超过4%。该公司日前公告称，司美格鲁肽生 物类似药吉可亲上市申请已获中国国家药监局正式受理，本次申报的适应症为肥胖或超重人群的体重管 理。 据公开信息，目前国内市场上包括九源基因、丽珠集团、华东医药、齐鲁制药、正大天晴在内的十多家 本土制药公司的司美格鲁肽仿制药有望在不久的将来上市，还有十余款处于三期临床，一场价格大战即 将席卷。 针对市场关注的仿制药疗效，九源基因表示，基于一项370多名肥胖患者的三期临床研究显示，吉可亲 在安全性方面以及治疗后44周患者体重下降变化方面"在临床上与参考药物相当"。所谓的参考药物，就 是诺和诺德的司美格鲁肽减重药。 一位内分泌专家对第一财经记者表示，随着更多仿制药的上市，减重药很快就会迎来"白菜价"时代。此 前，诺和诺德的司美格鲁肽以及礼来的替尔泊肽用于糖尿病适应症的药物在被纳入医保后，价格都大 幅"跳水"。 在中国本土仿制药以及国际减重药巨头的双重竞争的挑战下，诺和诺德的股价过去 ...

交银国际研究 行业更新 行业评级 领先 2026 年 2 月 27 日 医药行业周报 ASCO GU 大会召开在即，板块波动中持续看好低估创新标的 行业与大盘一年趋势图 资料来源： FactSet 2/25 6/25 10/25 2/26 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 行业表现 恒生指数 丁政宁 Ethan.Ding@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1834 诸葛乐懿 Gloria.Zhuge@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1845 估值概要 | 公司名称 | 股票代码 评级 | | 目标价 | 收盘价 | | -----每股盈利----- | ----市盈率---- | | | ----市账率---- 股息率 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | FY26E | | | FY27E FY26E FY27E FY26E FY27E FY26E | | | | | | | | | ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index opened high but closed down 384 points, or 1.44%, at 26,381 points, with significant selling pressure observed throughout the day [3][4] - The market saw a total turnover of 25.93 billion HKD, with net outflow from northbound trading amounting to 736.6 million HKD [3] Group 2: Company Performance - NIO's subsidiary GeniTech secured over 2.257 billion RMB in investment from Chinese investors, maintaining a 62.7% controlling stake post-transaction [12] - New World Department Store China reported a 3.93 times increase in interim profit to 15.327 million HKD, despite a 12.44% decrease in revenue to 536 million HKD [13] - Chow Tai Fook Jewelry Group announced a 15.26% increase in interim profit to 1.334 billion HKD, with revenue rising 5.9% to 12.827 billion HKD [14] - Baidu reported a 65.68% decrease in net profit to 1.782 billion RMB for the fourth quarter, with total revenue declining 4.06% to 32.74 billion RMB [15] Group 3: Industry Developments - Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing is exploring the development of a multi-asset tokenization platform, contingent on technological capabilities and market demand [7] - The People's Bank of China issued a notice to enhance the management of RMB cross-border interbank financing, aiming to improve transparency and stability in offshore RMB liquidity [10] - The Hong Kong government plans to inject 10 billion HKD into the Hong Kong-Shenzhen Innovation and Technology Park and the New Territories Science Park to bolster public-private partnerships [9]

风险提示 国金·月度金股 3 月： | 代码 | 简称 | 行业 | 收盘价(元) | 流通市值 | EPS(元) | | | PE | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2026/2/26 | 亿元 | 2025E | 2026E | 2025E | 2026E | | 000807.SZ | 云铝股份 | 工业金属 | 30.99 | 1074.71 | 1.79 | 2.17 | 17.36 | 14.31 | | 002493.SZ | 荣盛石化 | 炼化及贸易 | 15.27 | 1429.61 | 0.17 | 0.32 | 91.44 | 48.48 | | 603308.SH | 应流股份 | 通用设备 | 73.06 | 496.10 | 0.66 | 0.92 | 111.37 | 79.41 | | 601211.SH | 国泰海通 | 证券Ⅱ | 18.97 | 2560.36 | 1.62 | 1.42 | 11.71 | 13.36 | | 600642.SH | 申能股份 | 电力 | ...

Core Insights - The introduction of PD-1 inhibitors in 2014 marked a significant turning point in the fight against cancer, with Bristol-Myers Squibb's Opdivo and Merck's Keytruda leading the charge in immunotherapy [1][3] - The competition between Opdivo and Keytruda has evolved over the years, with Keytruda ultimately becoming the top-selling drug globally by 2024 [21][22] Historical Context - The history of cancer immunotherapy began with William Coley's discovery in the late 19th century, which was followed by a long period of stagnation until the late 20th century when key immune cells were identified [4] - The discoveries of James Allison and Tasuku Honjo regarding CTLA-4 and PD-1, respectively, laid the groundwork for the development of PD-1 inhibitors [5][10] Drug Development - Opdivo was developed with strong backing from Bristol-Myers Squibb after acquiring Medarex in 2009, leading to its approval in Japan in 2014 [12] - Keytruda's development faced initial setbacks but was revitalized by Merck's strategic decision to conduct an unprecedented "super I phase" trial, leading to its approval shortly after Opdivo [14][15][16] Market Dynamics - In 2016, a critical competition occurred between Opdivo and Keytruda in the non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) market, which is the largest segment in oncology [17] - BMS's failure in the CheckMate-026 trial led to a significant drop in Opdivo's market position, while Merck's more selective approach in the KEYNOTE-024 trial resulted in Keytruda's success [18][19][20] Sales Performance - By 2024, Keytruda's sales reached $29.5 billion, marking an 18% increase and solidifying its position as the top-selling drug globally [21] - Opdivo, while still a major player, saw its sales decline but remained above the $10 billion mark, maintaining its status as a heavyweight in the market [22][23] Competitive Landscape - The global PD-1 inhibitor market is highly competitive, with 527 candidates in development as of early 2025, including 20 approved drugs [26][29] - In China, the market is characterized by intense competition among local manufacturers, with significant price reductions due to national healthcare negotiations [30][31] Future Outlook - Keytruda's core patent is expected to expire in 2028, potentially leading to a significant drop in sales as biosimilars enter the market [32] - A new challenger, Ivonescimab, has shown superior efficacy compared to Keytruda in clinical trials, indicating a shift towards dual-target therapies in cancer treatment [33][35]

写在文章前的声明：在本文之前的说明：本文中所列的投资信息，只是一个对基金资产净值进行排行的客观描述，并无主观倾向性，也不是投资建议，纯属 娱乐性质。 一顿操作猛如虎，基金净值已更新，谁是基金中的王者，谁又垫底，请看数据： | 基金简称 PK | | | YANNEWSGH FRANCE AND | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 华泰柏瑞中 ... C | 2.7528 | 6.04% | 8 | | | 019455 | 2026-2-26 | | | | 2 | 华泰柏瑞中 ... A | 2.7691 | 6.03% | 8 | | | 019454 | 2026-2-26 | | | | 3 | 华泰柏瑞中韩 ... l | 2.7662 | 6.03% | 8 | | | 022681 | 2026-2-26 | | | | 4 | 广发利鑫混合C | 3.0650 | 5.44% | | | | 011172 | 2026-2-26 | | | | 5 | 广发利鑫混合A | 3.1270 | 5.43% | 8 | | | 002446 | 202 ...

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector is expected to experience valuation recovery driven by policy and industry resonance in 2025, with the sector's PE (TTM) rising from 31x as of September 30, 2025, indicating a positive investment outlook [1][35]. Group 1: Market Review - The pharmaceutical sector's PE (TTM) has fluctuated between 21x and 53x since 2015, with an average of 33x, and has shown signs of recovery since Q1 2025 after hitting a low in September 2022 [1][11][45]. - The market capitalization of pharmaceutical stocks held by equity funds was 12.2% in Q2 2025, reflecting a 1.8 percentage point increase and indicating a recovery trend [12][49]. Group 2: Global Economic Context - The return to a rate-cutting environment globally, particularly with the Federal Reserve's rate cut in September 2025, is favorable for innovative assets, while global aging trends are driving increased healthcare spending [2][36][56]. - China's pharmaceutical innovation is gaining momentum, with expectations of capturing a larger share of the global pharmaceutical market, thus enhancing the competitiveness of the domestic industry [2][36]. Group 3: Investment Thesis - The investment strategy is framed around a three-stage clinical value model: 1. "0→1" technological breakthroughs in innovative drugs and devices, enhancing domestic capabilities [2][36]. 2. "1→10" clinical validation with high-quality domestic drugs accelerating overseas licensing [2][36]. 3. "10→100" efficiency in the Chinese pharmaceutical supply chain, with CXO companies achieving stable growth through cost advantages [2][36]. Group 4: Recommended Companies - Key companies recommended for investment include Innovent Biologics (H), Eifang Biologics (U), Tianshili, WuXi AppTec (A+H), Prasis, Mindray Medical, United Imaging Healthcare, and Weisi Medical [3][37].

2026年春节后，全球代谢病药物研发领域显得格外躁动。 2月24日，辉瑞中国与杭州先为达生物共同宣布达成战略合作，辉瑞获得新一代偏向型GLP-1受体激动 剂埃诺格鲁肽注射液在中国大陆的独家商业化权益，交易总额最高可达4.95亿美元。仅仅一天之后的2 月25日，丹麦巨头诺和诺德宣布与美国生物科技公司Vivtex达成一项价值高达21亿美元的合作协议，旨 在开发用于肥胖症和糖尿病的下一代口服药物。 两天内两笔重磅交易，背后是两个截然不同的战略逻辑，却共同指向了火热的GLP-1赛道。随着司美格 鲁肽与替尔泊肽"双王之战"2025年度胜负揭晓，中国本土药企的仿制药大军也已兵临城下。这两笔几乎 同时发生的BD（商务拓展）案，绝非偶然的新闻拼凑，而是全球GLP-1市场格局裂变的关键信号—— 旧格局松动，新战争已然打响。 谈及当下GLP-1领域的竞争态势，有券商医药行业分析师向21世纪经济报道记者透露，近日两大跨国药 企（MNC）的密集举措，为火热的GLP-1赛道投下两枚重磅"探路石"，映射出产业在高速发展后的深度 调整与战略再平衡。 一方面，为"王座"寻找新引擎。面对礼来替尔泊肽在销售榜首的"登顶"及CagriSema在关 ...

Group 1 - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing significant growth, with BD transaction volumes reaching new highs and domestic innovative drugs gaining international recognition, making it a focal point for investors [1][3] - However, there is a growing fatigue regarding the expectations for innovative drugs going abroad, leading to a shift from a "highlight moment" to a "volatile adjustment" in the market [2][3] - This transition is viewed as a necessary step towards a long-term market trend, with signs of recovery in the pharmaceutical sector as it approaches a new cycle starting in 2026 [3][11] Group 2 - The current investment rationale in the pharmaceutical sector is supported by three main forces: demand, supply, and policy, which are converging to fuel a new round of growth [5][36] - Demand for healthcare is increasing due to an aging population and rising health awareness, transforming medical consumption from optional to essential [6][37] - The supply side shows that China's innovative drugs are becoming globally competitive, with the number of innovative drug pipelines accounting for nearly 30% of the global total and BD overseas licensing transactions reaching $135.7 billion in 2025, a 161% increase year-on-year [7][38] Group 3 - Policy changes are shifting from cost control to empowerment, with new measures introduced to support the entire chain of innovative drug development, access, usage, and payment [10][41] - The Hong Kong stock market is becoming a primary platform for Chinese innovative drug companies due to its flexible listing regulations and foreign investment environment, which has attracted over 70 competitive innovative drug and CXO companies [12][43] - The establishment of the Hong Kong Medical Device Regulatory Center (CMPR) and other supportive mechanisms is expected to enhance the internationalization and business development capabilities of companies listed in Hong Kong [13][44] Group 4 - The Hang Seng Biotechnology Index has outperformed other indices with a 82.75% increase, highlighting its strong market position [16][46] - The index is composed of the top 30 biotechnology companies, focusing on high-growth sectors such as innovative drugs (79% weight) and CXO services (11% weight), ensuring coverage of the core segments of the pharmaceutical industry [17][49] - The index's unique feature includes being the only pharmaceutical-themed index in Hong Kong equipped with index futures, providing risk management tools and enhancing liquidity for investors [23][54] Group 5 - The Hang Seng Biotechnology Index is currently at a historically low valuation, with a PE ratio of 30.01, significantly lower than the NASDAQ Biotechnology Index and the CSI Biotechnology Index, indicating a valuation advantage [26][55] - The index's components are primarily leading innovative drug and CXO companies with solid R&D capabilities, suggesting potential for steady profit release as pipelines mature and orders are fulfilled [28][57] - The current market conditions may present a favorable opportunity for long-term investors to allocate resources into high-quality pharmaceutical assets through the Hang Seng Biotechnology ETF [29][58]