国贸期货：多因素支撑下中长期黄金仍有上涨空间，白银则谨慎对待 方正中期期货：短期最大不确定性落地 贵金属具备开启新一轮上涨的条件 转自：新华财经 国贸期货最新周报指出，在美联储9月降息预期较高背景下，贵金属价格短期料维持偏强运行，策略上 建议多单继续持有或以回调做多为主。中长期来看，美联储9月仍有较大概率降息、全球地缘局势仍旧 动荡复杂、逆全球化加剧和美元信用削弱支撑全球央行仍会维持净购金等因素支撑下，金价长期仍有上 涨空间。但白银中长期或仍以基本面逻辑为主，上方高度和持久度仍需谨慎对待。 方正中期期货观点认为，上周全球贵金属市场先抑后扬。周内全球主要股市均走势强劲，贵金属短期多 配价值下降，叠加市场担忧鲍威尔在全球央行年会的发言偏鹰，贵金属市场一度承压。但周五晚间鲍威 尔"鸽"声嘹亮，市场对美联储9月降息预期升温，美元指数回落，贵金属市场结束盘整，反弹明显。预 计在鲍威尔本次发言后，贵金属市场短期最大的不确定性落地，经过4个月的盘整后，具备开启新一轮 上涨的条件。 宝城期货最新观点认为，杰克逊霍尔会议上，美联储主席鲍威尔发言偏鸽，这很大程度上使降息预期升 温，美元指数下挫，金价上行。美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's "inflation concern faction" is likely to support a rate cut only if the August non-farm payroll data shows weakness again [1] - The Australian Federal Bank economist suggests that Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium will be a catalyst for the dollar's movement, but no clear signals are expected [2] - Analysts indicate that the German economy showed disappointing second-quarter GDP data, with a downward revision from -0.1% to -0.3% quarter-on-quarter [2] Group 2 - A Reuters survey indicates that most economists believe the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may cut rates two more times this year to 2.50% [3] - ING economists predict a surge in South Korean consumption in the third quarter due to government cash handouts, although weak construction investment may hinder overall growth [3] - The expectation for the next Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting on October 8 is a 25 basis point rate cut, with over 90% of economists forecasting this outcome [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision-makers, particularly those concerned about core PCE deviating from the 2% target, are likely to support a "insurance rate cut" only if the August non-farm payroll data, to be released on September 5, shows further weakness [1] Group 1 - The average job growth in the U.S. over the past three months is currently only 35,000 [1] - Chris Weston from Pepperstone indicates that the Fed's credibility is under significant pressure [1] - A rate cut in September, while core PCE is expected to exceed the target by 100 basis points, would be a challenging decision in any environment [1] Group 2 - It remains unclear whether the effects of tariffs will gradually become apparent [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's decision to cut interest rates to 4% has led to an unprecedented internal division among policymakers, indicating a potential slowdown in future rate cuts due to rising concerns over persistent inflation [1][5]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decision - The Bank of England lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, with a 5:4 vote, marking the first historical instance of a re-vote among the Monetary Policy Committee [1][5]. - Four policymakers voted to maintain the rate at 4.25%, highlighting significant internal disagreements regarding further monetary easing [5][6]. - The likelihood of maintaining rates unchanged in the September meeting is now at 93%, suggesting a market expectation for a pause in the rate-cutting cycle [4][6]. Group 2: Inflation Concerns - There is an increasing concern among Bank of England policymakers regarding the persistence of inflation, which is limiting the scope for further rate cuts [5][6]. - The possibility of rate cuts in November is also being questioned if inflation remains high, which is seen as a positive signal for the British pound [6] . Group 3: Currency Market Reaction - Following the news of the rate cut, the British pound strengthened against the US dollar, reaching 1.343, a near two-week high, with a weekly increase of 1.3% [1][7]. - The euro also saw a decline against the pound, with the euro to pound exchange rate dropping by 0.2% to 86.59 [7].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintains the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.50%, signaling a cautious stance on monetary policy amid signs of economic slowdown [3][4] - The Fed acknowledges a "moderate slowdown" in the U.S. economy expected in the first half of 2025, indicating a shift from previous statements emphasizing "robust growth" [3][4] - Internal divisions within the Fed are emerging, with two voting members expressing support for rate cuts, contrasting with the more cautious outlook of other officials [3][4] Group 2 - The market has partially priced in expectations for rate cuts later this year, with analysts divided on the likelihood of such actions given current inflation pressures and labor market strength [4][5] - The dynamics of market expectations versus the Fed's actual policy decisions may continue to influence gold market sentiment, with potential for further upward momentum if economic data supports a slowdown [5] - Gold is currently at a critical technical level around $3,300 per ounce, with its future direction heavily dependent on Fed policy and market interpretations of interest rate paths [5]

Core Viewpoint - The escalating political tension between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is undermining investor confidence, with analysts warning that any attack on the independence of the central bank could lead to a surge in gold prices [2][3]. Group 1: Political Tension and Market Impact - Trump has openly expressed dissatisfaction with Powell, advocating for a rapid interest rate cut of 300 basis points, which would place the federal funds rate between 1.25% and 1.50% [2]. - Recent personal attacks from Trump on Powell have intensified, with derogatory remarks and rumors about Powell considering resignation being circulated [2]. - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's leadership is injecting new volatility into the markets, with concerns about the central bank's independence worsening the situation [2][3]. Group 2: Consequences of Loss of Independence - Analysts describe the independence of the Federal Reserve as its "superpower," warning that attacks on this independence could have dramatic consequences, including a potential collapse of the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds [3]. - The loss of credibility for the Federal Reserve would undermine its ability to support turbulent financial markets through the purchase of U.S. government bonds, which is based on its reputation [3][4]. - The example of Turkey's central bank losing credibility due to political interference is cited as a warning for U.S. investors, suggesting that similar outcomes could benefit gold [4]. Group 3: Gold as a Safe Haven - Analysts recommend that investors focus on safe-haven assets like gold, especially as the Federal Reserve may take significant actions in the fall [3][4]. - Increased political tension could lead to heightened market volatility, with gold likely being used more as a store of value during such times [5]. - If Trump follows through on threats to dismiss Powell, it could unexpectedly drive demand for gold, putting pressure on the dollar index [5]. Group 4: Central Bank Demand for Gold - Despite increased investment demand for gold this year, central bank demand remains a key factor behind the historic rise in gold prices over the past three years, with expectations of an additional 1,000 tons of gold reserves being added globally [6]. - Analysts suggest that the establishment of a "shadow chairman" in the Federal Reserve could dilute monetary policy guidance, complicating the management of market expectations [6].

4. 路透调查：澳洲联储料将在7月降息，37位经济学家中有31位支持降息，另有6位认为利率将维持不 变。 金十整理：机构前瞻澳洲联储利率决议——降息救经济刻不容缓，7月行动成市场共识 1. 西太银行：澳洲联储料将在7月降息，但并非板上钉钉。仍预计最终利率为2.85%。 2. 高盛集团：澳洲联储料将在7月降息，并将在8月和11月继续降息，终端利率料为3.1%。 3. 道富环球：澳洲联储料将在7月降息，目的是保障经济增长，目前通胀显然已经不在担心范围内。 7. 荷兰国际：澳洲联储料将在7月降息，预计年底利率将达3.1%。澳大利亚整体与核心通胀未来几个季 度有望维持在2-3%区间中值附近。 8. Pepperstone：澳洲联储料将在7月降息，由于二季度CPI数据尚未出炉，澳洲联储不会在声明中提供清 晰的关于多久达到中性利率的前瞻指引。 5. 凯投宏观：澳洲联储料将在7月降息，最近数据仍表明，澳大利亚经济倾向于下行，提前降息的理由 仍充分。 6. 瑞银集团：澳洲联储料将在7月降息，原因是经济活动的疲软以及通胀的缓和，8月也将继续降息以捍 卫经济。 ...

Group 1: Global Monetary Policy and Asset Trends - The global monetary policy remains accommodative, leading to a surge in the supply of US dollars, which enhances the importance of gold as countries seek to diversify their settlement systems and reserve safety [1] - Decentralized assets like Bitcoin are attracting capital due to their scarcity, especially as the credit system faces challenges [1] - The trend of de-dollarization is gaining momentum, with central banks increasing their gold reserves, indicating a shift towards a more diversified global monetary system [9] Group 2: Market Predictions and Economic Indicators - Analysts predict that gold could reach $6,000 per ounce during Trump's presidency, with similar forecasts from major financial institutions like JPMorgan [3] - Despite a weak dollar, the US stock market continues to perform well, supported by the export advantages of high-tech companies and increased overseas profits [7] - The dollar's status as a safe-haven asset is diminishing, with institutional investors shifting towards gold, Bitcoin, European sovereign debt, and emerging market stocks [5] Group 3: Future Market Dynamics - The upcoming market dynamics will be influenced by geopolitical conflicts, trade disputes, growth expectations, and technological competition, which could trigger new volatility [9] - Key trading themes for the second half of 2025 include the potential for gold to reach new highs, the impact of a weak dollar on US equities, and the implications of rising debt and slowing growth on Federal Reserve policies [15] - The easing of US-China chip tensions and the potential for a resurgence in China's AI sector are also critical factors to watch [10]

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) is expected to strengthen if the US government announces more trade agreements, potentially reaching a resistance level of 0.6700 against the USD, while negative news could lead to a decline towards a support level around 0.6428 [1] - The market anticipates a 92% probability of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cutting interest rates in July, following moderate inflation data from May [1] - Citigroup analysts noted that the yield spread of Eurozone government bonds shows resilience amid geopolitical tensions, indicating stable market performance despite uncertainties [1] Group 2 - ANZ's survey indicates that New Zealand businesses showed increased confidence in June, with 46.3% expecting economic improvement over the next year, up from 36.6% in May [2] - Despite the rise in confidence, the actual operating conditions for businesses remain weak, highlighting a disparity between sentiment and reality [2] - Barclays reported an increase in risk premium for dollar-denominated assets in the first half of the year due to US policy volatility, while US Treasury yields are expected to potentially exceed 5% [2] Group 3 - The UK economy experienced a 0.7% growth in Q1 2025, driven mainly by business investment and net trade, but this growth may not be sustainable [3] - A significant drop of over 30% in UK exports to the US in April indicates weakening external demand, particularly from the US market [3] - Concerns about the impact of tariffs on US prices and inflation expectations are rising, with the Federal Reserve's upcoming consumer price report being crucial for future monetary policy direction [3]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs expects the US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index to rise from 2.6% in March to 3.6%, driven by rising import prices, increased domestic production costs, and producers raising prices [1][2] - Pantheon Macroeconomics notes that France's Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.6% year-on-year in May 2025, lower than April's 0.9%, indicating a slowdown in inflation due to declining service and energy price increases [2] - Nomura Securities suggests that the Japanese Ministry of Finance may shift to short-term borrowing from the third quarter, reducing the issuance of ultra-long-term bonds, which is a response to the recent surge in ultra-long-term government bond yields [3] Group 2 - PIMCO anticipates that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may implement multiple rate cuts over the next year, lowering the official cash rate from 3.85% to approximately 2.75% to achieve a neutral rate level [1] - Société Générale indicates that South Korea's inflation rate in April was 2.1%, close to the long-term target of 2.0%, supporting the need for the Bank of Korea to adopt a monetary easing policy [3] - The European Central Bank is expected to lower rates again in June, with market expectations for a 25 basis point cut to 2.0%, as France's inflation remains below the ECB's mid-term target of 2% [2]