Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock consumer sector is experiencing a rise, with the Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer ETF (513230) increasing by nearly 1.5% [1] - Notable gainers include TCL Electronics, WH Group, Zhenjiu Lidu, Pop Mart, Midea Group (000333), KANAT Optical, and Gu Ming, while major decliners include Weilong Delicious, Smoore International, Little Garden, Uni-President China, and Giant Bio [1] - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments have issued a special activity plan for the 2026 "Happy New Spring" Spring Festival, encouraging increased subsidies for trade-in programs and support for offline retail [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities reports that Moutai's sales price has exceeded expectations, with price increases for Flying Moutai, vintage wines, and zodiac wines, indicating strong channel sales [1] - The white liquor sector is viewed as having a significant investment opportunity, with current valuations at historical lows, suggesting strong bottom-fishing value [1] - The report highlights the potential for consumption policies to catalyze growth in the white liquor sector around the Spring Festival [1]

中信建投（601066）证券分析：近期白酒板块的反弹或是资本市场预期先行。白酒产业来到"五底阶 段"(政策底、库存底、动销底、批价底、产销底)，与资本市场上白酒板块的"三低一高"(预期低、估值 低、公募持仓低、高分红)共振，白酒当前是资本市场少数"板块低估值叠加产业拐点将至"的板块，底 部配置性价比突出。该机构看好春节前后白酒板块"或迎十年大底投资机会"，同时提示关注消费政策催 化。 而高端酒是行业周期风向标，有望先于行业，率先触底回升。投资工具方面，头部白酒企业股价单价较 高，一手动辄万元，可借道食品饮料ETF(515170.SH)低门槛布局，一手仅百元左右。食品饮料 ETF(515170.SH)被动跟踪中证细分食品主题指数，持仓透明、风格不漂移，相比纯酒类ETF，剔除尾部 出清风险的酒企，更加聚焦一二线白酒龙头如贵州茅台、五粮液（000858）、泸州老窖（000568）等， 其中持仓贵州茅台接近18%仓位。 1月29日以来，贵州茅台（600519）股价连续冲高，2月3日盘初冲高回落，截至最新为1450元/股。 ...

消息面上，1月29日，MiniMax于1月29日正式发布MiniMax Music2.5音频大模型。相较于上一代，该模 型在"段落级强控制"与"物理级高保真"两大技术难题上实现突破。据介绍，新版本能够实现对音乐结构 更精准的把控，并显著提升了生成音频的音质水平。是行业重要趋势。 中信建投（601066）此前指出，在生成式AI浪潮席卷全球的当下，MINIMAX以"反共识"的战略定力， 聚焦模型智力突破，正从行业竞争中脱颖而出。作为上海首批获得大模型备案的企业，公司凭借技术深 耕与商业化远见，展现出强劲的发展潜力。该行预测，2025-2027年公司营收将保持90%以上的高速增 长，Non-GAAP毛利率有望提升至55%，净亏损率持续收窄。随着推理成本优化与新一代多模态模型落 地，公司有望在AI原生应用领域开辟更大市场空间。 MINIMAX-WP(00100)早盘涨近10%，截至发稿，涨9.26%，报572港元，成交额2.85亿港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a rebound, with significant inflows into the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF, indicating a potential super cycle driven by the "AI leap" and "century change" narratives [1][2] Group 1: Market Performance - On February 3, the non-ferrous sector saw a rebound, with the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) rising by 3% [1] - Over the past 20 trading days, the net inflow into the Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF has reached nearly 1.7 billion yuan, increasing its fund size to 2.59 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - China Galaxy Securities suggests capitalizing on the super cycle of non-ferrous metals, which is supported by the "AI technology revolution" and "global order reshaping" [1] - Historical data indicates that commodity cycles last long, typically 25-30 years, with upward trends lasting 8-10 years and downward trends lasting 15-20 years [1] - Institutions generally agree that the non-ferrous metal sector is likely to continue its bullish trend, with expectations of a bull market driven by monetary, demand, and supply factors by 2026 [1] Group 3: ETF Coverage - The Huabao Non-Ferrous ETF (159876) and its linked fund (017140) cover a wide range of indices, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing for better exposure to various market cycles [2]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities experienced a decline of 0.67% on February 2, with a trading volume of 402 million yuan, indicating a challenging market environment for the company [1]. Financing Summary - On February 2, CITIC Securities had a financing buy-in amount of 24.93 million yuan and a financing repayment of 47.12 million yuan, resulting in a net financing outflow of 22.19 million yuan [1]. - The total financing and securities lending balance for CITIC Securities reached 2.33 billion yuan, with the financing balance accounting for 1.50% of the circulating market value, which is above the 90th percentile of the past year [1]. - In terms of securities lending, CITIC Securities repaid 1,400 shares and sold 700 shares on February 2, with a selling amount of 16,700 yuan, while the securities lending balance was 666,500 yuan, indicating a low position compared to the 30th percentile of the past year [1]. Financial Performance - As of September 30, CITIC Securities reported a total revenue of 17.29 billion yuan for the first nine months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.78%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 7.09 billion yuan, which is a 64.95% increase year-on-year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 17.81 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 7.29 billion yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, CITIC Securities had 118,400 shareholders, a decrease of 7.61% from the previous period, with an average of 0 circulating shares per shareholder [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited held 81.41 million shares, a decrease of 4.14 million shares from the previous period, while the Guotai CSI All-Index Securities Company ETF increased its holdings by 13.54 million shares to 33.57 million shares [3].

Group 1 - CITIC Securities predicts that the establishment of an independent new energy storage capacity pricing mechanism by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration will stabilize revenue expectations for energy storage and stimulate investment enthusiasm among owners [1] - The cancellation of mandatory energy storage requirements shifts the industry focus from cost competition to value creation, gradually revealing investment value [1] - CITIC Securities expects a rapid growth in domestic energy storage installations by 2026 and is optimistic about leading companies in the energy storage industry chain [1] Group 2 - Huatai Securities notes that the risk appetite in the market continued to decline in January, with high dividend sectors performing better than in December, particularly in oil, coal, and steel [1] - Looking ahead to February, Huatai Securities suggests that as market volatility increases, the allocation value of high dividend sectors has marginally improved compared to the previous month, recommending a focus on stable high dividend stocks with defensive attributes and some potential high dividend varieties [1] Group 3 - CITIC Jin Investment indicates that the white liquor industry is approaching a turning point in its adjustment phase, coinciding with the "five bottoms" stage and the capital market's "three lows and one high" [2] - The upcoming Spring Festival season is seen as a potential catalyst for the white liquor sector, presenting a cyclical bottom allocation opportunity in the capital market [2]

2月3日，港股集体高开，其中恒生指数涨0.82%报26995.76点，恒生科技指数涨0.68%报5563.79点，国 企指数涨0.59%报9133.88点，红筹指数涨0.33%报4259.27点。 招商局置地(00978.HK)：2025年合同销售总额约为323.08亿元，同比减少23.91%。 蓝河控股(00498.HK)：与能储投公司订立合作框架协议。 中兴通讯(00763.HK)：拟出资1.17亿元认购建兴湛卢基金份额，可投资扶持更大范围的创新业务及上下 游产业链企业。 云工场(02512.HK)：附属中标人工智能产业基地二期项目，合约价值为人民币5.2亿元。 小鹏汽车-W(09868.HK)：1月共交付新车20011辆。 拉近网娱(08172.HK)：附属拉近众博获蚂蚁云通授权为"蚂蚁百宝箱官方合作服务商"。 骏东控股(08277.HK)：附属河北林木与金达林业订立木材采伐及销售协议。 环球医疗(02666.HK)：附属拟发行本金总额不超过10亿元公司债。 君圣泰医药（核心股）-B(02511.HK)：任命Filip Surmont博士为首席医学官，强化心肾代谢系统疾病 (CKM)布局。 盘面上，大型 ...

Group 1: Corn Market - The corn closing price was 2261 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.7%. The sentiment in the market is bearish as pre-holiday stockpiling by enterprises is nearing completion, while grassroots grain selling sentiment is recovering [4][15]. - Weather conditions this week are noteworthy, with warming forecasts in Northeast China. This may accelerate the sale of grain lacking standard storage conditions, but the overall low temperatures may only lead to a temporary drop in spot prices. Post-holiday, weather-related risk factors will gain more attention [4][15]. - Overall inventory in Northeast China remains at historical lows, with no significant rebound expected. Without additional fundamental information, market focus is shifting towards post-holiday speculative sentiment [5][16]. - The corn main contract is expected to maintain a range-bound trading pattern, observing support around 2250 and resistance at 2330 [6][17]. Group 2: Soybean Meal Market - Overnight CBOT soybeans followed the decline in commodity prices, balancing between reduced production expectations due to drought in Argentina and the realization of abundant harvests in Brazil. As of January 31, Brazil's soybean harvest progress was at 11.4%, with Mato Grosso state at 33.2%, advancing by 13.5 percentage points weekly [6][17]. - The soybean meal fundamentals show no marginal changes, following the weakness in overseas markets. Concerns about potential tightness in future soybean supply and uncertainties in reserve release schedules have somewhat elevated price resilience [6][17]. - The current shipping schedule for Brazilian soybeans is favorable for crushing profits, which may encourage commercial oil mills to actively purchase. However, if the pressure from South American arrivals materializes, there remains a risk of a decline in meal prices impacting crushing margins [6][17]. Group 3: Egg Market - The spot price for eggs in major production areas remains stable, with an average price of approximately 3.33 yuan/jin in Hebei, unchanged from the previous day. Short-term demand for pre-holiday stockpiling is the main support, but demand is expected to weaken post-holiday, indicating a potential shift to a bearish pricing rhythm [8][19]. - In the medium to long term, attention should be paid to the actual progress of capacity reduction. Historically, the year 2025 may be a loss year, potentially leading to improvements in supply-demand relationships, while the market outlook for 2026 appears positive, albeit with risks of phase-based expectation overshooting [8][19]. Group 4: Pork Market - The average price of live pigs in major production areas was approximately 12.56 yuan/kg. After a continuous decline, the market has seen a rebound. Despite the proximity to the Spring Festival, which may cause fluctuations, the near-term futures contracts have already priced in expectations of a decline [10][21]. - The key observation point for the 2026 market will be the depth and sustainability of capacity reduction. Major enterprises are increasingly using futures for risk management, which may alter traditional understandings of the "pig cycle" price fluctuation patterns [10][21].

Market Overview - On February 2, the domestic commodity futures market saw widespread limit-downs, with major contracts for silver, palladium, platinum, copper, nickel, crude oil, and lithium carbonate all hitting the limit. The night session closed with the main silver contract down 20%, tin down 12.38%, crude oil down 4.8%, and gold down 3.86% [4][15]. Manufacturing Sector - China's official manufacturing PMI for January was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points month-on-month. The National Bureau of Statistics noted that some manufacturing sectors entered a traditional off-season, coupled with insufficient market demand, leading to a decline in manufacturing sentiment [4][15]. Shipbuilding Industry - In 2025, China's shipbuilding completion volume reached 53.69 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, accounting for 56.1% of the global total. However, new orders received were 107.82 million deadweight tons, down 4.6% year-on-year, representing 69.0% of the global total. As of the end of December, the hand-held order volume was 27.44 million deadweight tons, up 31.5% year-on-year, making up 66.8% of the global total. China has maintained its leading position in the international shipbuilding market for 16 consecutive years [4][15]. Steel Market - On February 2, the national main port iron ore transactions were 817,000 tons, a decrease of 9.9% month-on-month. The transaction volume of construction steel from 237 mainstream traders was 46,800 tons, down 16.5% month-on-month [5][16]. - Last week, the operating rate of 247 steel mills was 79%, an increase of 0.32 percentage points from the previous week and up 1.02 percentage points year-on-year. The capacity utilization rate for ironmaking was 85.47%, a slight decrease of 0.04 percentage points week-on-week but up 0.83 percentage points year-on-year. The profit margin for steel mills was 39.39%, down 1.30 percentage points week-on-week and down 9.53 percentage points year-on-year. The average daily pig iron output was 2.2798 million tons, a decrease of 0.12 million tons week-on-week [5][16]. - The total supply of five major steel products last week was 8.2317 million tons, continuing to rise week-on-week. The production of rebar increased by 0.28 million tons to 1.9983 million tons, while hot-rolled production increased by 3.8 million tons to 3.0921 million tons. The total inventory of five major steel products was 12.7851 million tons, an increase of 214,300 tons week-on-week [5][16]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Steel - Rebar production continued to increase slightly, with a total output of 1.9983 million tons, and total inventory rose by 234,300 tons to 4.7553 million tons. Demand decreased by 91,200 tons to 1.764 million tons. The current supply of rebar is recovering, but demand remains weak, leading to a seasonal downturn in the market. Prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, with continued narrow fluctuations [6][17]. - Hot-rolled steel production saw a slight increase, with actual output at 3.0921 million tons, up 38,000 tons week-on-week. Total inventory decreased by 22,000 tons, but the pace of reduction has slowed. Demand increased slightly by 14,500 tons to 3.1141 million tons. Traders are cautious about future market conditions, adopting a "low inventory, fast turnover" strategy [7][18]. Price Strategy - The short-term trading range for rebar 2605 is referenced at 3,050-3,200 yuan/ton, while the hot-rolled 2605 contract is referenced at 3,250-3,350 yuan/ton [8][19]. Alloy Market - The alloy market is experiencing increased volatility, with emotional trading becoming evident. Overall supply remains low, and production levels have stabilized. The cost side is seeing gradual increases, but fundamental support remains insufficient. Steel mills' production intensity is stable, and the winter restocking phase is nearing its end. Prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating pattern [9][20].

Group 1: Rubber Market - Domestic all-latex rubber price is 15,800 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan/ton from the previous day; Thai 20 mixed rubber price is 15,000 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton [4][27] - As of February 1, 2026, Qingdao's total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade is 591,700 tons, an increase of 7,200 tons, or 1.23% from the previous period [5][28] - With the arrival of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, the market is expected to shift from dynamic pricing based on supply and demand to static pricing based on inventory levels, leading to high volatility in RU&NR&Sicom prices in the short term [5][28] Group 2: PX Market - PX industry load in China increased by 0.3 percentage points to 89.2%, while the Asian industry load increased by 0.6 percentage points to 81.6%, indicating a stable supply [6][29] - The demand side shows that downstream PTA facilities have many maintenance plans in the first quarter, which may affect PX demand [6][29] - The first quarter is expected to see a loosening of the PX supply-demand structure, with short-term price fluctuations anticipated [6][29] Group 3: PTA Market - PTA industry load remains stable at 76.6%, which is low compared to historical levels, with expectations of tightening supply due to maintenance plans [7][30] - The demand side is weak, with new orders declining and factory operating rates in Jiangsu and Zhejiang continuing to fall [7][30] - The PTA spot basis is expected to weaken due to reduced polyester production, leading to inventory pressure in the first quarter [7][30] Group 4: Polyester Market - Several polyester production facilities are undergoing maintenance, with a total capacity of 1.8% affected [8][31] - The average sales estimate for polyester in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is around 20-30% as of 3:30 PM on Monday, indicating weak demand [8][31] Group 5: Soda Ash Market - Soda ash futures experienced a slight decline, with the latest production increasing by 11,000 tons to 783,000 tons, indicating rising supply pressure [15][38] - Downstream demand has slightly decreased, with the latest soda ash factory inventory increasing by 16,000 tons to 156,000 tons [15][38] - The market sentiment is weak, with soda ash prices expected to remain low in the short term [15][38] Group 6: Glass Market - Glass futures saw a slight decline, with inventory decreasing by 33,000 tons to 2,628,000 tons, while production remained stable [40][41] - The demand for glass is weak due to seasonal factors, with the latest deep processing order quantity decreasing [40][41] Group 7: Caustic Soda Market - As of February 2, 2026, caustic soda futures increased by 29 yuan/ton to 2,004 yuan/ton, with stable prices in the market [42][43] - Demand is generally weak, but some caustic soda companies are reducing production, leading to stable prices [42][43] Group 8: PVC Market - PVC futures decreased by 49 yuan/ton to 5,014 yuan/ton, with supply pressure remaining high due to elevated operating rates [44][45] - Short-term expectations for PVC are optimistic due to a significant reduction in production growth in 2026 [44][45] Group 9: Polyolefins Market - Polyolefins are experiencing wide fluctuations, with LLDPE futures up and PP futures down, indicating mixed market conditions [46] - The overall supply trend remains high, but demand is entering a seasonal downturn [46]