Investment Rating - The oil and gas industry is rated as "Outperform" [5] Core Views - The report indicates that geopolitical tensions have significantly influenced oil prices, with Brent crude averaging $64.7 per barrel in January 2026, up $3.1 from the previous month, and WTI averaging $60.2 per barrel, up $2.4 [1][12] - OPEC+ has decided to continue suspending oil production increases in March 2026, maintaining a cautious approach to supply amid fluctuating geopolitical conditions [1][16] - Demand for crude oil is projected to grow between 930,000 to 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026, with further increases expected in 2027 [2][17] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - In January 2026, Brent crude futures averaged $64.7 per barrel, while WTI averaged $60.2 per barrel, reflecting significant fluctuations due to geopolitical events [1][12] - The report highlights that U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and potential military actions against Iran have contributed to price volatility [1][12] Supply Side Analysis - OPEC+ has decided to maintain its production cuts, with a collective reduction of 2 million barrels per day extended through the end of 2026 [16][20] - The report anticipates that the Brent crude price will stabilize between $55 and $65 per barrel in 2026, while WTI is expected to range from $52 to $62 per barrel [18][38] Demand Side Analysis - Major energy agencies forecast an increase in crude oil demand, with OPEC estimating a rise to 106.52 million barrels per day in 2026, up from 105.10 million barrels per day in 2025 [2][17] - The demand growth rate is expected to accelerate in 2027, with projections of 107.86 million barrels per day from OPEC [2][17] Key Company Earnings Forecast and Investment Ratings - Key companies such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), PetroChina, and Satellite Chemical are rated as "Outperform" with respective earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024 and 2025 [4] - CNOOC is projected to have an EPS of 2.90 in 2024 and 2.66 in 2025, while PetroChina is expected to have an EPS of 0.90 in 2024 and 0.91 in 2025 [4]

"三桶油"强化能源保供，谋划高质量发展建设世界一流 ——石油化工行业周报第 439 期（20260202—20260208） 要点 2026 年 2 月 8 日 行业研究 分析师：赵乃迪 执业证书编号：S0930517050005 010-57378026 zhaond@ebscn.com "三桶油"集团及下属子公司召开年度工作会议，强调能源安全、深化转型 升级。近期"三桶油"集团公司及下属子公司陆续召开 2026 年度工作会议， 总结 2025 年工作和"十四五"发展成就，研究提出"十五五"发展思路和目 标任务，部署 2026 年重点工作。2026 年，"三桶油"集团将做强做优做大 油气主业基本盘，增强能源高效供给能力，发挥能源保供"顶梁柱"作用；深 入推动炼油化工结构调整和提质升级，着力提升产业链创效水平和整体竞争 力，建设世界一流能源资源集团。 中国石油集团：发挥能源保供"顶梁柱"作用，为建设能源强国努力奋斗。 （1）中国石油集团强调，到 2030 年，公司要全面实现高质量发展、基本建 成世界一流企业，公司将突出价值创造，坚持向新发展，强化集智攻关，聚焦 治理现代化，树牢底线思维，扎实推进国企改革深化提 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the future week, asphalt prices will mainly fluctuate with the cost - end crude oil. The main factor influencing crude oil is geopolitics, but small - scale geopolitical frictions cannot reverse the weak fundamentals and oversupply situation of crude oil. [1] - Due to the continuous slump in domestic diesel prices and the large inventory pressure of refined oil in some Shandong refineries, the suppression of asphalt by full - storage may lead to a smooth decline in prices when the rigid demand after the Spring Festival fails to meet expectations. [1] - As the holiday approaches, the trading enthusiasm of asphalt may gradually fade, and investors need to pay attention to position risk control before the festival. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - As the holiday approaches, the spot - end has "celebrated the New Year in advance", and the demand has dropped to zero. The previous continuous premium increase in the futures market has not been fully followed by the spot market. [1] - The increase in the discount quotation of Ma Rui crude oil has led some Shandong refineries to switch to other heavy - oil resources. The so - called raw material shortage is not the key factor restricting the refinery's operating rate, but it does have a certain impact on the long - term cost valuation. [1] 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - The update of the basis, calendar spread, and hedging arbitrage strategy recommendations is suspended due to compliance requirements. The update of the recent strategy review is also suspended. [10] 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range forecast for the asphalt main contract in the coming month is 2800 - 3150 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.63% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 54.76%. [10] - **Risk Management Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, they can short asphalt futures to lock in profits and sell call options to reduce capital costs. [10] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory and hoping to purchase according to orders, they can buy asphalt futures to lock in procurement costs in advance and sell put options to collect premiums. [10] 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East have increased the upward elasticity of crude oil prices, and the discount quotation of Ma Rui crude oil has risen. [11][13] - **Negative Information**: No specific negative information was provided in the text. - **Spot Transaction Information**: This week, asphalt prices in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while prices in other regions increased by 5 - 115 yuan/ton. The cost of crude oil and the futures market were favorable, and there was some rush - work demand in the south. However, in the north, the rigid demand stagnated, and the overall sales volume decreased. [15][16] 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Geopolitical situation changes, including the latest shipping and arrival logistics of Venezuelan and Iranian crude oil, the export and shipment of Russian crude oil, the possibility of the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the changes in floating storage inventory at sea. [17][22] - The progress and results of the subsequent US - Iran negotiations. [22] - The end of the asphalt consumption peak season, with demand under pressure. [17] - The US may cause the geopolitical premium of crude oil to decline by urging Ukraine to resolve the battlefield issue. [17] - The US may issue more threats of imposing tariffs under the pretext of national security. [17] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement**: This week, the asphalt futures price showed a volatile trend, and market sentiment was cautious. The net short - position of key asphalt seats has decreased, indicating that some institutions are more optimistic about the future market. The market may continue to fluctuate in the short term. [18] - **Basis Structure**: This week, the asphalt basis structure weakened, with the futures market at a premium. Frequent geopolitical disturbances supported market activity through low - price contract resources despite weak demand. [21] - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The absolute price of asphalt jumped due to geopolitical factors, but the calendar spread structure remained in a weak C - structure, which is in line with the characteristics of the approaching off - season. [39] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - **Coking Material Market**: As of February 5th (compared with January 29th), the price of Shandong coking materials increased by 50 yuan/ton to 3650 yuan/ton. The trading atmosphere in the refined oil market was positive, and the replenishment enthusiasm of middle - and lower - stream users was high, leading to a slight rebound in coking material prices. [43] - **Asphalt Market**: The mainstream transaction price of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3220 - 3280 yuan/ton. Although the previous strong crude oil price supported the asphalt futures market, the weak demand led to few spot transactions. In the short term, the off - season demand and the planned resumption of production of some refineries may lead to a further decline in asphalt prices. [43] 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - **South Korea Market**: The CIF price of South Korean asphalt in East China is 395 - 405 US dollars/ton, and the RMB duty - paid price is 3180 - 3260 yuan/ton. Although the price of South Korean asphalt in February increased compared with January, it still has a price advantage, and the import volume in January and February remained high. [52] - **Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand Markets**: The CIF price of Singaporean asphalt in South China is 490 - 510 US dollars/ton, and the RMB duty - paid price is 3870 - 4030 yuan/ton; the CIF price of Thai asphalt in South China is 465 - 475 US dollars/ton, and the RMB duty - paid price is 3680 - 3760 yuan/ton. The price increase in the Singapore market was driven by crude oil and fuel oil, but the trading atmosphere has cooled down due to the decrease in rush - work demand. [52] 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Domestic Production**: In 2025, China's asphalt production was 28.47 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. Among them, the production of PetroChina refineries increased by 33% year - on - year, Sinopec's decreased by 12% year - on - year, CNOOC's increased by 13% year - on - year, and local refineries' increased by 19% year - on - year. [55] - **Import**: The import volume of South Korean and other regions' asphalt remained at a relatively high level, and the price of some brands' March shipments continued to rise. [52] 3.5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - Most regions' demand has decreased due to temperature and the approaching holiday, and the operating rate of modified asphalt plants has continued to decline. [80] 3.5.3 Inventory - Side and Deduction - Some social warehouses in the Northeast, Northwest, and North China continued to store winter - storage resources; the inventory in the South China and Southwest regions decreased steadily due to some rush - work demand; the inventory in the Yangtze River Delta and Central China regions fluctuated little. [97] 3.5.4 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the asphalt monthly supply - demand balance sheet from January to December 2025, including data on production, imports, exports, apparent consumption, actual demand, and inventory changes. [119] 3.5.5 Weather Outlook In the next 10 days (February 8 - 17th), most of the regions in Huanghuai, Jianghuai, Jianghan, southern China, and the eastern part of the southwestern region will experience precipitation, which is higher than the same period in previous years. [120]

"新春佳节，我更牵挂基层的干部群众。"党的十八大以来，每逢新春佳节，习近平总书记总要抽出时间，不辞辛劳深入基层，看望慰问基层干部 群众。 从边陲佤寨到高原村落，从千年古城到深山"天眼"，从能源保供一线场站到万家灯火一日三餐，习近平总书记的牵挂始终真切而具体，嘱托声声 在耳，承诺字字铿锵。 2017年，三家村脱贫出列。2020年1月19日，习近平总书记走进三家村中寨司莫拉佤族村，为脱贫后的佤族村指明方向："乡亲们脱贫只是迈向幸 福生活的第一步，是新生活、新奋斗的起点。" 春山可望，山河日新。在这幅生机勃勃的时代画卷里，人们以汗水浇灌希望，用奋斗诠释担当，共同投身中国式现代化建设伟大实践，写就山河 壮丽、国泰民安的崭新篇章。 习近平总书记留下的这句话，如火塘里跃动的火苗，点燃了整个佤寨振兴向上的热情。 牵挂为笔，绘就振兴长卷 如今，特色民居错落有致，村道整洁平坦，一张张笑脸灿烂绽放……昔日的"空心村"，已蝶变为人人共建设、户户能增收的幸福家园。 高黎贡山的风，拂过苍翠的林海，在云南省腾冲市清水镇三家村中寨司莫拉佤族村驻足。 "村里推行'合作社+企业+农户'的联农带农机制，传统农业与农家乐、农耕体验等业态相互支撑、 ...

Investment Rating - The oil and gas industry is rated as "Outperform" [1][5][4] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant fluctuations in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions, with Brent crude averaging $64.7 per barrel in January 2026, up $3.1 from the previous month, and WTI averaging $60.2 per barrel, up $2.4 [1][12] - OPEC+ has decided to continue suspending oil production increases into March 2026, maintaining a cautious approach amid seasonal factors and geopolitical uncertainties [1][16][20] - Demand for crude oil is projected to grow between 930,000 to 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026, with further increases expected in 2027 [2][17] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - In January 2026, Brent crude futures averaged $64.7 per barrel, while WTI averaged $60.2 per barrel, reflecting a month-on-month increase [1][12] - Geopolitical events, including U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and tensions with Iran, have contributed to price volatility [1][12] Supply Side Analysis - OPEC+ has decided to maintain its production cuts, with a collective reduction of 2 million barrels per day extended through the end of 2026 [1][20] - The report anticipates that the average Brent price will stabilize between $55 and $65 per barrel in 2026, while WTI is expected to range from $52 to $62 per barrel [3][38] Demand Side Analysis - Major energy agencies forecast an increase in global crude oil demand, with OPEC, IEA, and EIA estimating demand for 2026 at approximately 106.52 million, 104.83 million, and 105.10 million barrels per day, respectively [2][17] - The demand growth for 2027 is expected to be higher, with OPEC and EIA predicting increases of 134,000 and 126,000 barrels per day [2][17] Company Profit Forecasts and Investment Ratings - Key companies such as CNOOC, PetroChina, Satellite Chemical, and CNOOC Development are rated as "Outperform" with respective earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024 and 2025 [4][5] - CNOOC is projected to have an EPS of 2.90 in 2024 and 2.66 in 2025, while PetroChina is expected to have an EPS of 0.90 in 2024 and 0.91 in 2025 [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil refining industry [1]. Core Insights - The IEA and OPEC have revised down their global crude oil inventory expectations for 2026, indicating a more cautious outlook for supply and demand dynamics in the oil market [1][2]. - Predictions for global crude oil supply in 2026 are set at 10870.29, 10765.19, and 10593.14 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively, showing an increase compared to 2025 [2][30]. - Global crude oil demand forecasts for 2026 are 10498.05, 10482.61, and 10650.00 thousand barrels per day, reflecting a modest increase from 2025 [2][30]. - The report highlights significant fluctuations in oil prices, with Brent crude at 66.30 USD/barrel, WTI at 62.14 USD/barrel, and a notable increase in prices over the past month [3][9]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Overview - As of February 2, 2026, Brent crude, WTI, Russian ESPO, and Urals prices are 66.30, 62.14, 52.90, and 65.49 USD/barrel respectively, with Brent and WTI showing increases of 9.14% and 8.41% over the past month [9]. Global Crude Oil Inventory - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global crude oil inventory changes for 2026 at +372.24, +282.58, and -56.86 thousand barrels per day respectively, with an average change of +199.32 thousand barrels per day [2][24]. Global Crude Oil Supply - The forecast for global crude oil supply in 2026 is 10870.29, 10765.19, and 10593.14 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC, with respective increases of +251.53, +138.75, and +122.43 thousand barrels per day compared to 2025 [2][30]. Global Crude Oil Demand - The demand forecast for 2026 is 10498.05, 10482.61, and 10650.00 thousand barrels per day, with increases of +93.22, +113.81, and +136.34 thousand barrels per day from 2025 [2][30]. Related Companies - The report mentions several related companies including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and PetroChina [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil processing industry [1]. Core Insights - International oil prices experienced fluctuations due to geopolitical developments, including the potential resumption of nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran, which initially eased risks but later saw a resurgence following military incidents [2][9]. - As of February 6, 2026, Brent and WTI oil prices were reported at $68.05 and $63.55 per barrel, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 1.83% and 2.55% from the previous week [2][25]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - Brent crude futures settled at $68.05 per barrel, down $1.27 (-1.83%), while WTI futures were at $63.55, down $1.66 (-2.55%) [2][25]. - The Urals crude price remained stable at $65.49 per barrel, and ESPO crude fell to $54.91, down $0.55 (-0.99%) [2][25]. Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling rigs was 370, a decrease of 6 from the previous week, while floating drilling rigs totaled 132, down by 2 [28]. U.S. Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production was reported at 13.215 million barrels per day, a decrease of 481,000 barrels from the previous week [35]. - The active rig count in the U.S. increased by 1 to 412 rigs as of February 6, 2026 [35]. U.S. Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude processing averaged 16.029 million barrels per day, down by 180,000 barrels from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 90.50%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points [43]. U.S. Oil Inventory - Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 836 million barrels, a decrease of 3.241 million barrels (-0.39%) from the previous week [52]. - Strategic oil inventories increased slightly to 415 million barrels, while commercial inventories decreased to 420 million barrels [52]. Related Companies - Key companies in the sector include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" [3] Core Insights - The fertilizer market is entering a traditional demand peak with structural price increases expected due to the spring farming season, which accounts for approximately 45%-50% of annual fertilizer usage [1][7] - The chemical fiber industry is approaching its peak demand season, with low inventory varieties likely to show price elasticity [9][11] Summary by Sections Fertilizer Sector - Urea prices are expected to stabilize and potentially rise due to increased demand from delayed planting and government policies aimed at boosting grain yields [7] - Phosphate fertilizer prices are supported by strong cost factors, with a forecast of continued high prices due to supply constraints and stable demand [8] - Potash fertilizer prices are anticipated to rise as supply remains tight, with a contract price of $348 per ton for 2026, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year [8] Chemical Fiber Sector - The "golden March and silver April" period is a traditional peak for the chemical fiber industry, with downstream textile companies expected to increase procurement to meet seasonal demand [9] - Polyester filament production is being managed through coordinated reductions to improve profitability, with current inventory levels at historical lows [11] - Viscose staple fiber is experiencing high operating rates and low inventory, suggesting strong upward price potential [11] Overall Chemical Industry Performance - The chemical sector has seen a significant increase in attention due to a rebound in PPI and capital expenditure trends, with the industry valuation at a historical low [18][19] - The report suggests focusing on four main investment themes, including upstream resource assets, supply-side optimization, low valuation leading companies, and new productivity investments [19][20][21][22]

"新春佳节，我更牵挂基层的干部群众。"党的十八大以来，每逢新春佳节，习近平总书记总要抽 出时间，不辞辛劳深入基层，看望慰问基层干部群众。 从边陲佤寨到高原村落，从千年古城到深山"天眼"，从能源保供一线场站到万家灯火一日三餐， 习近平总书记的牵挂始终真切而具体，嘱托声声在耳，承诺字字铿锵。 春山可望，山河日新。在这幅生机勃勃的时代画卷里，人们以汗水浇灌希望，用奋斗诠释担当， 共同投身中国式现代化建设伟大实践，写就山河壮丽、国泰民安的崭新篇章。 牵挂为笔，绘就振兴长卷 高黎贡山的风，拂过苍翠的林海，在云南省腾冲市清水镇三家村中寨司莫拉佤族村驻足。 村口，大红灯笼高高挂起，石碑上"让幸福的佤族村更加幸福"的朱红大字，在暖阳下镀上一层金 光。那是习近平总书记在佤寨考察时留下的深深牵挂。 司莫拉，佤语意为"幸福的地方"。这座有着500多年历史的传统村落，聚居着佤、汉、白、傣等多 个民族的群众，曾因闭塞落后，一度是"看寨不是寨，茅草垒成堆"的景象。 2017年，三家村脱贫出列。2020年1月19日，习近平总书记走进三家村中寨司莫拉佤族村，为脱贫 后的佤族村指明方向："乡亲们脱贫只是迈向幸福生活的第一步，是新生活、新奋斗的 ...

Oil Market Overview - Brent and WTI crude oil futures averaged $67.7 and $63.5 per barrel this week, with changes of -$0.9 and +$0.1 respectively compared to last week[2] - U.S. total crude oil inventory stands at 84 million barrels, with commercial and strategic inventories at 42 million barrels each, reflecting changes of -324, -346, and +21 thousand barrels respectively[2] - U.S. crude oil production decreased to 13.22 million barrels per day, down by 480 thousand barrels per day from the previous week[2] Oil Demand and Supply - U.S. refinery crude processing volume is 16.03 million barrels per day, down by 180 thousand barrels per day, with a utilization rate of 90.5%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points[2] - U.S. crude oil imports increased by 56 thousand barrels per day to 620 thousand barrels, while exports decreased by 54 thousand barrels to 405 thousand barrels, resulting in a net import increase of 110 thousand barrels per day[2] - Active U.S. oil rigs increased by 1 to 412, while active fracturing fleets decreased by 3 to 148[2] Refined Products - U.S. gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel prices averaged $80, $101, and $89 per barrel respectively, with changes of +$1.3, -$9.5, and -$5.1 per barrel[2] - U.S. gasoline inventory increased by 690 thousand barrels, while diesel and jet fuel inventories decreased by 555 and 66 thousand barrels respectively[2] - U.S. gasoline consumption decreased by 60 thousand barrels per day to 815 thousand barrels, while diesel and jet fuel consumption increased by 24 and 29 thousand barrels per day respectively[2] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include China National Offshore Oil Corporation, PetroChina, Sinopec, and CNOOC Services[3] - Risks include geopolitical factors affecting oil prices, significant macroeconomic downturns, and potential changes in OPEC+ supply plans[3]