2025 年 05 月 20 日 开源晨会 0520 ——晨会纪要 数据来源：聚源 -32% -16% 0% 16% 32% 48% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 沪深300 创业板指 昨日涨跌幅前五行业 | 行业名称 | 涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | | 综合 | 1.987 | | 环保 | 1.873 | | 房地产 | 1.751 | | 国防军工 | 1.051 | | 社会服务 | 1.024 | | 数据来源：聚源 | | 沪深300 及创业板指数近1年走势 吴梦迪（分析师） wumengdi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790521070001 观点精粹 【地产建筑】新房上海同环比领涨，一线新房价格环比持平——行业点评报告 -20250519 【地产建筑】销售面积降幅持续收窄，国内贷款增速转正——行业点评报告 -20250519 【机械】特斯拉机器人"丝滑"起舞，智能化大幅提升，硬件趋向定型——行业 周报-20250518 【建材】城市更新行动进度加速，关注建材投资机会——行业周报-20250518 【传媒】多模态 AI 继续迭代，IP 产业资本化或加快— ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating a positive outlook for the sector compared to the overall market performance [5][11]. Core Insights - In April 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year-on-year, slightly below market expectations of 5.5%. The total reached 3.7 trillion yuan, with a month-on-month decline of 0.8 percentage points [5]. - The report emphasizes the government's focus on expanding domestic demand, with policies aimed at boosting service consumption and enhancing consumer willingness [5]. - Online retail penetration continues to rise, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.7% for the first four months of 2025, outperforming the overall retail growth by 3.0 percentage points [5]. - The service retail sector saw a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, with the government prioritizing policies to stimulate service consumption [5]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - April 2025 retail sales grew by 5.1% year-on-year, with a total of 3.7 trillion yuan. Excluding automobiles, retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.6% [5]. - Online retail sales reached 931.7 billion yuan in April, growing by 6.12% year-on-year, with an online penetration rate of 25.1% [5]. Consumer Behavior and Policy Impact - The report highlights the effectiveness of consumption promotion policies, with significant growth in categories such as communication equipment (+19.9%) and home appliances (+38.8%) [5]. - The government has introduced measures to enhance consumer confidence, particularly in the service sector, which saw a production index increase of 6.0% year-on-year in April [5]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies several sectors with strong growth potential, including e-commerce (Alibaba, JD.com, Meituan), department stores (DASHANG, Yonghui Supermarket), and the tourism industry (ShouLai Hotel, Jinhai Mountain) [5][6]. - The report suggests that the gold and jewelry sector will benefit from rising gold prices, with companies like LaoPu Gold and CaiBai maintaining strong growth [5][6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a stable growth in social consumption, with a year-on-year increase of 4.7% in the first four months of 2025, and a 5.1% increase in April [4] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of optional consumption categories, particularly gold and jewelry, which saw a year-on-year increase of 25.3% in April [5] - Online retail channels showed robust growth, with a total online retail sales of 47,419 billion in the first four months of 2025, marking a 7.7% increase [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The total retail sales for the first four months of 2025 reached 161,845 billion, with April sales at 37,174 billion, reflecting a 5.1% increase [4] - The report indicates a positive outlook for social consumption growth driven by effective policy measures [4] Consumption Trends - Essential consumption categories such as grain and oil saw significant growth, with year-on-year increases of 14.0% for grain and oil products [5] - The report identifies a divergence in growth rates among different consumption categories, with home appliances showing a strong performance due to government subsidies [5] Online vs Offline Retail - Online retail sales accounted for 24.3% of total retail sales, with physical goods online retail sales increasing by 5.8% [6] - Offline retail channels, including supermarkets and convenience stores, also showed a marginal recovery, with supermarkets growing by 5.2% year-on-year [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality companies in the "emotional consumption" theme, particularly in four key areas: gold and jewelry, offline retail, cosmetics, and medical aesthetics [7] - Specific companies recommended include Lao Pu Gold, Yonghui Supermarket, and Aimeike, among others [7]

Core Insights - The overall consumer market in Chongqing is under pressure in 2024, yet listed companies in the consumer sector have shown resilience through product innovation, channel transformation, and brand upgrades, achieving stable performance [1] - The five listed companies in Chongqing, including Youyou Foods, Chongqing Department Store, Chongqing Beer, Fuling Zhacai, and Baiya Co., collectively generated revenue of 38.607 billion yuan and net profit of 3.674 billion yuan in 2024, maintaining performance levels compared to the previous year [1] - Looking ahead to 2025, these companies are expected to continue leading in high-quality development through a "product + channel + brand" strategy as consumer scenarios recover and industry upgrades progress [1] Company Performance - Chongqing Department Store, a leading retail company, reported a revenue of 17.139 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 9.75%, while net profit increased by 0.46% to 1.315 billion yuan [2] - Youyou Foods achieved a revenue of 1.182 billion yuan and a net profit of 157 million yuan in 2024, marking increases of 22.37% and 35.44% respectively, driven by channel structure changes [3] - Baiya Co. reported a revenue of 3.254 billion yuan and a net profit of 288 million yuan in 2024, with growth rates of 51.77% and 20.74% respectively, supported by the high-end product strategy [4] Market Trends - The Chongqing consumer sector is characterized by accelerated product innovation, deepened channel transformation, and normalized ESG practices among companies like Chongqing Beer and Baiya Co. [6] - The beer industry in China has entered a "stock market" phase, with a 30% decline in total production since its peak in 2013, yet Chongqing Beer has maintained stable sales and profitability through product and marketing innovations [6][7] - Chongqing Beer reported a revenue of 14.645 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 1.15%, while its net profit decreased by 7.03% to 1.222 billion yuan [6][7] Innovation and Strategy - Companies are focusing on product innovation and channel expansion as core drivers, with Youyou Foods launching six new products and enhancing its product matrix to meet market demands [9] - Baiya Co. is optimizing its marketing system and expanding its e-commerce channels, achieving a 103.8% increase in online revenue in 2024 [4] - Chongqing Beer is accelerating product innovation, launching multiple new products and packaging to cater to diverse consumer needs, while also expanding into the beverage market [8]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The new consumption sector shows significant differentiation, with the personal care industry growing faster than medical beauty and cosmetics. Brand iteration is accelerating, leading to widening performance gaps among companies such as Mao Ge Ping, Shangmei, and Juzi Biological, which are experiencing rapid growth, while Shanghai Jahwa and Huaxi Biological are seeing slower growth [1][4]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Beauty Sector Valuation**: The beauty sector still has room for valuation improvement, with PEG values referencing 2019 levels. Recommended companies include Jingbo Biological, Juzi Biological, and Dengkang Oral Care, along with Japanese brands Perfect Diary and Shangmei Life [1][5]. - **Food and Beverage Sector**: Focus is on food additives and snacks, with Baiming Chuangyuan expected to experience rapid growth from 2024 to 2026 due to capacity release and new product approvals. The current valuation is around 20 times. The konjac products are driving explosive growth in the snack sector, with attention on Yanjinpuzi and Wehaomei [1][6]. - **High School Education Reform**: The reform in the high school education system is favorable for private high schools, with Tianli International Holdings being undervalued at a PEG of about 0.3 and an annual growth rate of approximately 35%. Other companies like Xueda Education and Kevin Education are also worth monitoring [1][7][8]. - **Domestic Brands Growth**: Domestic brands are rapidly rising, while overseas brands, particularly from Japan and South Korea, are declining. The American brand group has collapsed in the domestic market, with only L'Oréal managing to sustain itself, but its momentum is expected to diminish next year [2]. Additional Important Insights - **AI in Consumption**: The AI-enhanced consumption sector is thriving, with AI glasses, AI e-commerce, AI education, and AI toys being the four core directions. Recommended companies include Kangnait Optical, with attention on Focus Technology, Xiaogoods City, and Haizhu Wang [3][11]. - **Traditional Retail Recommendations**: In traditional retail, focus on high dividend-yielding stocks. Companies like Chongqing Department Store, Bubugao, and Dashang Co. are highlighted for their stability and dividend performance [12]. - **Pet Industry Trends**: The pet industry is showing strong sales trends, particularly during the 618 shopping festival, with domestic brands rapidly gaining market share. Brands like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. are maintaining strong growth momentum [16][17]. - **Home Appliance Sector**: The home appliance sector is expected to see improved revenue due to promotional activities and national subsidy policies, despite increased price competition. Companies like Midea and Haier are actively engaging in price wars to boost sales [18][19][20]. Conclusion The new consumption sector is characterized by rapid growth in personal care and food sectors, with significant opportunities in AI applications and domestic brands. The education reform and pet industry trends also present promising investment avenues. The home appliance sector faces challenges but shows potential for recovery through strategic pricing and export opportunities.

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Views - The recent US-China Geneva talks have led to a positive consensus, with expectations for the export chain to recover as both sides agree to reduce tariffs significantly [1][21] - The 2025 "618" mid-year shopping festival has commenced, with major e-commerce platforms implementing strategies to stimulate consumer spending through simplified rules and increased subsidies [2][21] Summary by Sections Industry & Company Dynamics - The US has committed to canceling 91% of tariffs on Chinese goods and modifying 34% of reciprocal tariffs, while China will suspend or cancel corresponding tariffs on US goods [1][21] - The 618 shopping festival has seen platforms like Tmall and JD.com launching pre-sales and promotional strategies to attract consumers, with domestic brands showing strong growth [2][21] - Key investment themes include the return of offline traffic, AI technology upgrades, and the increasing willingness of consumers to pay for emotional value [3][64] Investment Recommendations - Focus on five investment themes: 1. Traditional retail sectors revitalizing due to returning foot traffic, with beneficiaries including Yonghui Supermarket and Kidswant [3][64] 2. Continuous upgrades in AI technology benefiting companies like Focus Technology and Aosheng Technology [3][64] 3. High-performing new retail sectors, with companies like Miniso and Pop Mart expected to outperform [3][64] 4. Cyclical sectors recovering from low levels, with companies like Mixue and Haidilao as potential beneficiaries [3][64] 5. Opportunities in overseas consumption, with support for domestic brands expanding internationally, focusing on companies like Miaow Exhibition and Anker Innovations [3][64] Macro & Industry Data - In March, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.9% year-on-year, indicating a stable and improving consumption market [40][41] - Online retail sales accounted for 24.0% of total retail sales, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7 percentage points [41][41] - The jewelry sector saw a decline in gold consumption, with a total of 985.31 tons consumed in 2024, reflecting a 9.58% decrease year-on-year [57][57]

证券研究报告 | 行业专题 | 社会服务 2024 年价格端有所提升，分业态有所分化。2024 年 CPI 整体有所恢复，利好零 售同店端，但客流受线上化影响仍有分化。2024 年累计分零售业态增长：专业店 （yoy+4.2%）、专卖店（yoy-0.4%）、超市（yoy+2.7%）、百货（yoy-2.4%）、便利 店（+4.7%）。其中超市受益调改+供应链变革提升前端客流吸引力，百货受到空 置率等因素影响仍有下滑。 社会服务 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 17 日 分化加剧，寻求需求侧景气度或供给侧的成本费用改善 ——社服行业 2024 年年报&2025Q1 业绩综述 投资要点 2024 年旅游高增长，25Q1 景气延续。根据文旅部数据，2024 年全年旅游收入增 长 17%，旅游人次增长 15%，客单价超越 19 年。2025 年春节国内旅游收入增长 7%，旅游人次增长 6%。低线城市、县域和农村居民的需求升级推动了旅游市场 下沉增量。银发游崛起，2024 年，45 岁以上的中老年旅游者合计出游 11.94 亿人 次，占据国内旅游客源市场的 36.81%。 OTA 充分享受大盘增长，格局稳固。下游供给加 ...

证券代码：600729 证券简称：重庆百货 公告编号：临 2025-020 重庆百货大楼股份有限公司 股权激励限制性股票回购注销实施公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： 回购注销原因：重庆百货大楼股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）有 3 名激励对象现已离职或退休，不再符合激励对象资格。根据中国证监会《上市公 司股权激励管理办法》（以下简称"《管理办法》"）及《重庆百货大楼股份有限公 司 2022 年限制性股票激励计划（草案）（修订稿）》（以下简称"《激励计划》"） "第八章 公司/激励对象发生异动的处理"之"二、激励对象个人情况发生变化" 之"（三）激励对象因辞职、劳动合同期满、公司裁员而离职"及"（四）激励对 象退休"的有关规定，公司回购注销 3 名激励对象所持尚未解除限售的公司限制 性股票 7.20 万股，并减少公司股本总额 7.20 万股。本次回购注销完成后，公司 限制性股票激励对象人数调整为 47 人。 本次注销股份的有关情况 | 注销股份数量 注销日期 | 回购股份数量 | | --- ...

北京市金杜律师事务所 关于重庆百货大楼股份有限公司 2022 年限制性股票激励计划 回购注销部分限制性股票相关事项的法律意见书 致：重庆百货大楼股份有限公司 北京市金杜律师事务所（以下简称本所）受重庆百货大楼股份有限公司（以 下简称公司或重庆百货）委托，根据《中华人民共和国公司法》（以下简称《公 司法》）、《中华人民共和国证券法》（以下简称《证券法》）、中国证券监督 管理委员会（以下简称中国证监会）《上市公司股权激励管理办法》（以下简称 《管理办法》）1等法律、行政法规、部门规章和其他规范性文件以及《重庆百货 大楼股份有限公司章程》（以下简称《公司章程》）、《重庆百货大楼股份有限 公司2022年限制性股权激励计划（草案）》及其修订稿（以下简称《激励计划》） 的有关规定，就公司 2022 年限制性股票激励计划（以下简称本激励计划）拟回 购注销部分限制性股票（以下简称本次回购注销）所涉及的相关事宜，出具本法 律意见书。 本所依据《证券法》《律师事务所从事证券法律业务管理办法》和《律师事 务所证券法律业务执业规则（试行）》等规定及本法律意见书出具日以前已经发 生或者存在的事实，严格履行了法定职责，遵循了勤勉尽责和诚 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the significant progress made during the recent China-US trade talks in Geneva, with both sides agreeing to lower tariffs and establish a negotiation mechanism for future discussions [3][25][26] - The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of maintaining high-quality development and expanding international cooperation to navigate external uncertainties [3][30][31] - The report suggests that the trade agreement is a rational choice based on the current economic realities of both countries, indicating a shift towards pragmatic dialogue [3][27][28] Group 2 - The communication equipment industry is experiencing a recovery, with revenue growth of 2.9% and 12.9% year-on-year in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively, driven by AI computing power [5] - The net profit for the communication equipment sector showed a decline of 14.1% in Q4 2024, followed by a 24% increase in Q1 2025, indicating a positive trend in profitability [5] - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in "AI + overseas + satellite" sectors, particularly in areas like optical modules and liquid cooling technologies [5] Group 3 - The electronics sector is witnessing a recovery, with a total fund holding value of approximately 234.4 billion, representing 18.09% of the market, with a notable increase in semiconductor holdings [6] - Consumer electronics companies reported a significant revenue growth rate exceeding double digits in Q1 2025, supported by government subsidies and tariff preparations [6] - The AI performance dividends are becoming evident in passive components and PCB sectors, with automotive and AI computing emerging as new growth drivers [6] Group 4 - The automotive parts industry is focusing on the growth of electric vehicle components, with sales in the new energy sector reaching 7.249 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 21.3% [10] - The report indicates that the company is strategically positioning itself in the robotics sector, leveraging its technological advantages to expand into this emerging market [10] - The projected revenue for the company from 2025 to 2027 is expected to grow significantly, with net profits forecasted to reach 1.58 billion yuan by 2027 [10] Group 5 - The report on the company 盛业 (06069) indicates a strategic partnership with investors to enhance its supply chain technology business, focusing on AI and e-commerce sectors [38][39] - The company aims to leverage its collaboration with strategic investors to expand its market presence and improve its AI research capabilities [38][39] - The expected revenue growth for the company from 2025 to 2027 is projected to be substantial, with net profits anticipated to reach 836 million yuan by 2027 [38]