此外，因一场严重冬季风暴横扫全美、令能源基础设施和电网承压，美国石油生产商在上周末损失的产 量最高达200万桶/日，约占全国产量的15%。华泰证券研报指出，地缘溢价已导致淡季油价筑底反弹， 随着需求回升及全球性储备性累库，26Q2-Q3油价有望见底上探。(格隆汇) | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 √ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 00883 | 中国海洋石油 | 24.540 | 4.34% | | 00338 | 上海石油化工股 | 1.550 | 4.03% | | 00857 | 中国石油股份 | 9.180 | 4.20% | | 02883 | 中海油田服务 | 8.910 | 3.73% | | 00386 | 中国石油化工股 | 5.420 | 3.04% | | 00135 | 昆仑能源 | 7.990 | 0.50% | 港股石油股继续涨势，中国海洋石油、中国石油股份、上海石油化工均涨超4%，其中，中海油刷新历 史新高价，中海油田服务涨3.7%，中国石油化工涨3%。 消息上，负责中东地区美军行动的美军中央司令部27日发布声明说，其第九航空队将举行一场 ...

消息面上，受伊朗局势、美国恶劣天气以及美元走软提振，油价周二走高。WTI3月原油期货收于每桶 62.39美元，涨幅为2.9%；布伦特3月原油期货收于每桶67.57美元，涨幅为3.02%。据新华社，负责中东 地区美军行动的美军中央司令部27日发布声明说，其第九航空队将举行一场为期数天的空军战备演习。 此外，伊朗官员称已对霍尔木兹海峡进行实时监控。 智通财经APP获悉，石油股集体走高，截至发稿，中海油(00883)涨4%，报24.46港元；中海油服(02883) 涨3.26%，报8.87港元；中石油(00857)涨3.29%，报9.1港元；中石化(00386)涨1.71%，报5.35港元。 华泰证券研报指出，地缘溢价已导致淡季油价筑底反弹，随着需求回升及全球性储备性累库，26Q2-Q3 油价有望见底上探，叠加美联储降息对需求拉动，亚非拉地区成品油需求或景气上行，上调26年布伦特 均价为65美元/桶（前值62美元/桶）。长期而言，考虑主要产油国边际成本及"利重于量"诉求，油价中 枢存60美元/桶底部支撑。 ...

截至1月28日10点整，石化ETF（159731）涨1.26%，持仓股浙江龙盛涨停，宝丰能源、和邦生物等涨幅 居前。从资金净流入方面来看，石化ETF连续15个交易日获得资金净流入，合计"吸金"7.45亿元。石化 ETF最新份额达10.18亿份，最新规模10.45亿元，均创成立以来新高。 国信证券认为，工信部印发石化化工行业稳增长方案，行业"减油增化"稳步推进。国际油价窄幅波动， 沙特OSP升水下调，炼化成本端逐步改善。近期，全球外部环境急剧变化，但考虑到OPEC+的财政平衡 油价成本，以及美国页岩油较高的新井成本，预计2026年布油中枢在55-65美元/桶窄幅波动，处于炼厂 成本舒适区。此外2025年10月来，沙特连续下调对亚洲OSP油价，将进一步减少对国内炼厂成本端压 力。后续随着俄乌关系缓和，VLCC运价有望降低波动，炼厂成本端将逐步改善。 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，从申万一级行业分 布来看，指数以基础化工和石油石化行业为主，权重占比合计超91%，前十大重仓股中涵盖了"三桶 油"——中国石油、中国石化、中国海油，权重占比合计超20%。 每 ...

Group 1 - Oil prices increased due to the situation in Iran, adverse weather in the US, and a weakening dollar, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $62.39 per barrel, up 2.9%, and Brent crude oil futures at $67.57 per barrel, up 3.02% [1] - According to the IEA's January 21 report, the global oil demand growth forecast for 2025/2026 was raised to 850,000/930,000 barrels per day, driven by improved macroeconomic and trade outlooks, alongside a decline in oil prices and a weaker dollar [1] - The demand for petrochemical feedstock is recovering, with jet fuel leading the growth in fuel products, while non-OECD countries are expected to contribute to the entire demand increase in 2026 [1] Group 2 - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Oil and Gas Index (399439) include China National Petroleum, Sinopec, CNOOC, and others, accounting for 67.11% of the total index [2] - The oil ETF Penghua (159697) closely tracks the National Oil and Gas Index, reflecting the price changes of listed companies in the oil and gas sector on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [1][2]

Group 1 - The U.S. is conducting air force readiness exercises in the Middle East, leading to a 3.0% increase in WTI crude oil prices to $62.46 per barrel and Brent crude oil prices to $66.72 per barrel [1] - Geopolitical tensions in regions like Venezuela and Iran are raising concerns about supply risks, with the U.S. Central Command announcing military exercises amid increasing military pressure on Iran [1] - The weakening of the U.S. dollar is contributing to rising commodity prices, with the dollar index dropping to 95.51, the lowest level since February 2022, and a cumulative decline of over 2.2% for the month [2] Group 2 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its forecast for global crude oil demand growth in 2026 to 930,000 barrels per day, up from a previous estimate of 860,000 barrels per day, driven by improved global economic prospects and lower oil prices [2] - Deutsche Bank analysts have adjusted their 2026 Brent crude oil price forecast to $61.50 per barrel, anticipating a significant reduction in the oversupply of oil in the second half of 2026 [3] - Huatai Securities has raised its forecast for the average Brent crude oil price in 2026 to $65 per barrel, citing geopolitical premiums and expected demand recovery [3] Group 3 - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (00883) is the largest offshore oil and gas producer in China, focusing on exploration and production with strong cost and return profiles [4] - PetroChina Company Limited (00857) is the largest oil and gas producer and seller in China, with an integrated upstream and downstream business model covering the entire industry chain [4] - Sinopec Limited (00386) is a top global refining company with a strong sales network and capabilities in refining and chemical product production [4]

（原标题：港股概念追踪 | 地缘紧张与需求预期双重驱动 国际油价加速上涨(附概念股)） 智通财经APP获悉，美国将在中东举行空军战备演习，国际油价应声上涨，WTI原油日内涨幅达3.0%， 报62.46美元/桶；布伦特原油日内涨幅达3.0%，报66.72美元/桶。由于伊朗与美国的对峙及美元走弱等 影响，国际油价近期仍处于震荡上行期。 2026年1月以来，委内瑞拉、伊朗等地缘紧张局势再次引发市场供应风险担忧。据新华社报道，负责中 东地区美军行动的美军中央司令部27日发布声明说，其第九航空队将举行一场为期数天的空军战备演 习，以展示其在中央司令部责任区内快速部署、分散部署和持续作战的能力。 此次演习正值美国对伊朗不断施加军事压力之际。前一天，中央司令部宣布美军"亚:伯拉罕·林肯"号航 空母舰打击群已驶入中东水域。 美国总统特朗普宣称在伊朗附近的军事存在正在增强，但同时他也表示未排除外交选项。 伊朗石油储量全球第四，而霍尔木兹海峡是全球石油运输的咽喉——每天2100万桶原油经此运往世界。 若中东局势发生变化，将对能源及运输产生巨大影响。 中东地区的地缘局势始终是原油市场的黑天鹅来源，伊朗问题的反复、霍尔木兹海峡航运受 ...

2025Q4 化工行业基金持仓分析 化工持仓触底反弹，龙头配置价值凸显 glmszqdatemark 2026 年 01 月 27 日 推荐 维持评级 [Table_Author] | 分析师 | 许隽逸 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书： S0590524060003 | | | 邮箱： | xujy@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 张玮航 | | 执业证书： S0590524090003 | | | 邮箱： | whzhang@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 陈律楼 | | 执业证书： S0590524080002 | | | 邮箱： | llchen@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 刘天其 | | 执业证书： S0590525120013 | | | 邮箱： | liutianqi@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 黄楷 | | 执业证书： S0590522090001 | | | 邮箱： | huangk@glms.com.cn | | 分析师 | 赵嘉卉 | | 执业证书： S0590525080001 | | | 邮箱： | jhzhao@ ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a mixed performance in the Hong Kong stock market, with the Hang Seng Index slightly up by 0.06%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.24%, indicating a shift of funds from tech growth sectors to resource sectors with clear inflation benefits [2][3] - International gold prices have reached a new high due to rising risk aversion and geopolitical tensions, with spot silver also hitting a new peak of $109 per ounce, driving up related stocks [3] - The report notes a significant increase in U.S. durable goods orders by 5.3% month-on-month in November, indicating strong corporate investment momentum despite political uncertainties [4][5] Industry Analysis - The report provides insights into the retail sector, indicating that the total retail sales in December 2025 reached 45,136 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.9%, and an accumulated growth of 3.7% for the entire year [7] - The report observes a decline in growth rates across various consumer segments, with commodity retail sales in December at 39,398 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [8] - The food and daily necessities retail sectors experienced a slowdown, with December retail sales for food and oil at 2,323 billion yuan, growing by 3.9%, and daily necessities at 776 billion yuan, growing by 3.7% [8] - The report notes that the clothing sector is struggling, with December retail sales at 1,661 billion yuan, showing only a 0.6% year-on-year increase [8] - The report highlights a strong performance in the telecommunications equipment sector, with December retail sales reaching 949 billion yuan, growing by 20.9%, attributed to subsidies for electronic consumer goods [8] - The automotive sector is facing challenges, with December retail sales at 5,482 billion yuan, declining by 5.0% year-on-year, reflecting diminishing effects from subsidies [8] Investment Strategy - The report suggests investment in Lao Pu Gold (6181.HK), anticipating increased consumer demand during the Spring Festival, with a projected PE of 18.5x for 2026 based on a 40% net profit growth [10] - Hai Di Lao (6862.HK) is highlighted for its potential growth during the Spring Festival, with a current PE-TTM of 17x, benefiting from improved same-store sales in the second half of 2025 [10] - Ming Ming Hen Mang (1768.HK) is noted for its upcoming listing and expected rapid growth during the Spring Festival season, attracting significant market attention [10]

Group 1 - The report indicates a slight decrease in the total share of active equity funds, with a total of 26,662.1 billion, reflecting a reduction of 727.8 billion from the previous quarter, although the rate of decline has narrowed [7][8] - The performance of active equity funds in Q4 showed a slight retreat, with the active stock index down by 3.04% and underperforming the CSI 300 by nearly 3 percentage points [12][13] - The allocation to cyclical sectors has increased, with significant additions in materials, chemicals, and oil sectors, while technology and consumer sectors have seen a reduction in allocation [24][20] Group 2 - Fund managers are optimistic about the market outlook for Q1 2026, expecting a continuation of a "slow bull" market supported by economic recovery, liquidity easing, and policy support [28][24] - The report highlights a focus on sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and renewable energy, indicating a shift towards balanced growth and value stocks complementing growth stocks [28][24] - The top holdings in active equity funds include Zhongji Xuchuang, with significant increases in positions in China Ping An, Meituan, and Dongshan Precision [28][24]

港股通成交数据披露（沪深合计） 恒生指数今日涨1.35%，报27126.95点，大市成交2543.73亿港元。 披露的南向资金成交股中，腾讯控股、中国人寿、长飞光纤光缆分别获净买入10.24亿港元、5.11亿港 元、3.55亿港元；中国移动、紫金矿业、中芯国际分别遭净卖出11.47亿港元、8.43亿港元、5.53亿港 元。 本文源自：市场资讯 作者：智投君 证券简称成交金额净买入额收盘价涨跌幅腾讯控股 0070056.62亿港元10.24亿港元607.00港元12.50%中国人寿 0262817.21亿港元5.11亿港元34.10港元59.70%长飞光纤光缆 0686923.09亿港元3.55亿港元65.15港元37.40%中国海洋石油 008839.47亿港元3.12亿港元23.52港元7.70%钧达股份 0286513.71亿港元0.38亿港元35.26港元-32.40%小米集团－Ｗ 0181015.00亿港元-0.96亿港元35.56港元9.70%紫金黄金国际 0225910.85亿港元-1.33亿港元233.00港元115.90%招金矿业 018187.94亿港元-1.45亿港元38.42港元-22. ...