Core Viewpoint - The report from Everbright Securities highlights that by 2026, companies with high undistributed profits, ample cash reserves, and low debt ratios are expected to have strong dividend potential, supported by favorable conditions in market value management, high dividend strategies, and declining capital expenditures in the steel and aluminum industries [1] Group 1: Dividend Potential of Companies - Companies recommended for strong dividend potential include Hualing Steel (000932.SZ), Baosteel (600019.SH), and Jiuli Special Materials (002318.SZ), with China Aluminum (601600.SH) suggested for further observation [1] - China Shenhua's cash dividend ratio increased significantly from an average of 39% (2008-2016) to 151% in 2017, with an average of 74% from 2018 to 2024, driven by low debt ratios, reduced capital expenditures, and high undistributed profits [1] Group 2: High Dividend Yield Companies - As of February 6, 2026, there are only eight companies in the steel and electrolytic aluminum sectors with dividend yields above 3%, including Youfa Group (6.90%), Baosteel (4.18%), and Jiuli Special Materials (3.23%) [2] Group 3: Factors Supporting Dividend Increases - Three favorable factors for potential dividend increases in the steel and aluminum sectors include: 1. Market value management being included in assessments, encouraging companies to enhance cash dividends [3] 2. Large-scale entry of insurance capital, making high dividend strategies a core asset allocation choice [3] 3. Gradual decline in capital expenditures in the steel and aluminum industries, allowing for increased cash dividends [3] - A scoring system based on undistributed profits, cash reserves, and debt ratios identifies 14 companies with strong dividend potential, with Hualing Steel and Baosteel scoring highest in the steel sector [3]

Investment Rating - Steel industry: Maintain "Overweight" rating [6] - Non-ferrous industry: Maintain "Overweight" rating [6] Core Insights - The report highlights the potential for increased dividend payouts in the steel and aluminum sectors, driven by three main factors: the inclusion of market value management in assessments, significant insurance capital entering the market, and a gradual decline in capital expenditures within the steel and aluminum industries [3][5][29]. Summary by Sections Dividend Potential Analysis - The report identifies that only 8 companies in the steel and aluminum sectors currently have dividend yields above 3%, with notable companies including Youfa Group (6.90%), Ordos (4.62%), and Baosteel (4.18%) [2][22]. - A total of 14 companies in the steel and aluminum sectors meet the criteria for strong dividend potential, which includes having a high ratio of undistributed profits to total market value, sufficient cash reserves, and a debt ratio below 60% [4][32]. Factors Supporting Dividend Increases - The inclusion of market value management in the assessment of central enterprises is expected to accelerate the realization of dividend potential, as it encourages companies to enhance their market performance and return value to investors through increased cash dividends [3][25]. - The influx of insurance capital into the market is pushing for a revaluation of dividend-paying assets, as high dividend strategies become a core choice for insurance companies seeking stable returns [3][27]. - Capital expenditures in the steel and aluminum industries are anticipated to decline as the steel industry's ultra-low emission upgrades conclude and aluminum production approaches capacity limits, which may lead to higher future dividend payouts [3][30]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with high undistributed profits, ample cash reserves, and low debt ratios, specifically highlighting Huazhong Steel, Baosteel, and Jiuli Special Materials as key investment opportunities, while suggesting to keep an eye on China Aluminum [5][34].

东方证券指出，低位周期中具备红利吸引力的板块值得关注，宏观层面看，目前正处于PPI持续下行的 触底期，从市场预期角度看，PPI和行业盈利正处在低位回升的节点。在反内卷背景下有政策变化的行 业内，关注供给出清且有盈利弹性的板块，重点关注其中红利吸引力提升的板块。（文中所列示的行业 仅供参考，不预示本基金未来表现，不作为投资收益保证，也不构成对具体行业的投资建议） 国企红利ETF紧密跟踪中证国有企业红利指数，从国有企业中选取现金股息率高、分红比较稳定且有一 定规模及流动性的100只上市公司证券作为指数样本，反映国有企业中高股息率证券的整体表现。 据Wind数据显示，截至2026年1月30日，中证国有企业红利指数前十大权重股分别为中远海控、潞安环 能、西部矿业、山煤国际、恒源煤电、平煤股份、山西焦煤、兖矿能源、陕西煤业、华阳股份，前十大 权重股合计占比16.61%。（以上所列示股票为指数成份股，仅做示意不作为个股推荐。过往持仓情况 不代表基金未来的投资方向，也不代表具体的投资建议，投资方向、基金具体持仓可能发生变化。市场 有风险，投资需谨慎） 2026年2月11日早盘，截至11:05，中证国有企业红利指数上涨0.2 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-02-10锰硅早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 锰硅2605： 2 1.基本面：从成本端来看，整体锰矿成交价格仍处于高位且整体市场暂稳，对硅锰合金价格仍有较强成本支撑；2026年内 蒙地区地方电价以及南方电价对合金的成本预计上涨可能性较大。上周硅锰合金成本支撑暂稳。从供应端来看，前期北方 主产区新增硅锰炉子陆续出铁，普硅硅锰供应压力增加。春节将近，南方合金厂开工率稳定较低，厂家选择暂时停产，观 望态度浓厚，等待年后的电费结算价格。当前硅锰供应宽松压力仍存。从需求端来看，河钢集团26年2月硅锰采购情况等 待验证。当前硅锰市场仍以震荡运行为主基调；中性。 2.基差：现货价5750元/吨，05合约基差-62/吨，现货贴水期货。偏空。 3.库存：全国63家独立硅 ...

Market Performance - The steel sector declined by 3.02% this week, underperforming the broader market, with the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 index down by 1.33% to 4643.60 [7][70] - Sub-sectors such as special steel, long products, and plate steel saw declines of 2.10%, 1.88%, and 3.84% respectively [8][71] Supply Situation - As of February 6, the capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces in sampled steel companies was 85.7%, an increase of 0.22 percentage points week-on-week [14][66] - Electric furnace capacity utilization was 48.1%, down by 7.59 percentage points week-on-week [14][66] - The production of five major steel products totaled 720.8 million tons, a decrease of 1.55 million tons week-on-week [14][66] Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products was 760.7 million tons, down by 41.08 million tons week-on-week, a decline of 5.12% [20][82] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 3.5 million tons, down by 3.25 million tons week-on-week, a significant drop of 48.24% [20][83] Inventory Situation - Social inventory of five major steel products reached 940.4 million tons, an increase of 49.68 million tons week-on-week, up by 5.58% [25][88] - Factory inventory of five major steel products was 397.3 million tons, an increase of 9.56 million tons week-on-week, up by 2.47% [25][88] Price & Profit Situation - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3414.2 yuan/ton, down by 13.31 yuan/ton week-on-week, a decrease of 0.39% [66][94] - The comprehensive index for special steel was 6582.0 yuan/ton, down by 2.28 yuan/ton week-on-week, a decrease of 0.03% [66][94] - The profit for rebar from blast furnaces was 65 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.0 yuan/ton week-on-week, up by 27.45% [66][35] - The profit for construction steel from electric furnaces was -76 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.0 yuan/ton week-on-week, up by 5.00% [66][35] Raw Material Situation - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) at Rizhao Port was 764 yuan/ton, down by 29.0 yuan/ton week-on-week, a decrease of 3.66% [67][50] - The price of primary metallurgical coke was 1770 yuan/ton, unchanged week-on-week [67][50] Investment Recommendations - The steel sector is expected to have strong "anti-involution" characteristics and significant profit recovery potential, with high-quality steel companies showing upward elasticity in performance [69] - Key companies to focus on include regional leaders with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as those benefiting from the new energy cycle [69]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable but weakened investment rating for the Chinese steel industry, indicating a neutral overall credit impact despite ongoing challenges [4][6]. Core Insights - The Chinese steel industry is expected to stabilize at the bottom and show signs of fragile recovery in 2026, driven by structural upgrades and cost relief, while facing supply-demand contradictions and price pressures [4][6]. - The overall credit quality of the industry is projected to weaken in the next 12 to 18 months but will remain above a "negative" status level [4][6]. - The competitive landscape of the steel industry has entered a new phase focused on quality improvement and efficiency, with a notable recovery in operational performance since 2025 [6][22]. Industry Fundamentals Analysis - The steel industry is experiencing a mix of factors, including persistent overcapacity, demand pressure, and price suppression, leading to a stabilization at the bottom and a fragile recovery [7][8]. - The real estate sector continues to face challenges, with significant declines in investment and construction metrics, but policy support is expected to mitigate negative impacts on the steel industry [8][15]. - Infrastructure investment is projected to stabilize and support steel demand, with government measures aimed at increasing investment in key areas [8][15]. Industry Credit Analysis - The competitive landscape has shifted towards quality enhancement, with major players like China Baowu Steel Group and Ansteel Group leading consolidation efforts [34][35]. - The industry is characterized by a high level of financial leverage and weak debt repayment indicators, but no significant credit adjustments have been observed [34][39]. - The credit risk landscape is expected to remain controllable, although individual companies with persistent losses and weak financial management may face heightened credit risk exposure [34][39]. Investment Spending Analysis - The steel industry has entered a phase of investment contraction and structural optimization, with a focus on green and low-emission projects [31][32]. - Investment in the industry is expected to remain constrained due to ongoing financial pressures and the need for compliance with environmental regulations [31][32]. - The transition towards high-end product development and technological upgrades is anticipated to dominate capital expenditures in the coming years [31][32].

Market Performance - The steel sector declined by 3.02% this week, underperforming the broader market, with sub-sectors such as special steel down 2.10%, long products down 1.88%, and flat products down 3.84% [2][5] - Iron ore and steel consumables sectors also saw declines of 1.74% and 3.02% respectively, while the trade circulation sector fell by 4.006% [2][5] Supply Situation - As of February 6, the capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces in sample steel enterprises was 85.7%, an increase of 0.22 percentage points week-on-week [2] - Electric furnace capacity utilization was at 48.1%, a decrease of 7.59 percentage points week-on-week [2] - The production of five major steel products was 7.208 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 15,500 tons [2] - Daily average pig iron production was 2.2858 million tons, an increase of 6,000 tons week-on-week and 1,400 tons year-on-year [5] Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products was 7.607 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 410,800 tons, or 5.12% [2] - Mainstream traders' sales volume of construction steel was 35,000 tons, down 32,500 tons week-on-week, representing a 48.24% decline [2] Inventory Situation - As of February 6, social inventory of five major steel products was 9.404 million tons, an increase of 496,800 tons week-on-week, or 5.58%, but down 18.04% year-on-year [3][5] - Factory inventory of five major steel products was 3.973 million tons, an increase of 95,600 tons week-on-week, or 2.47%, and down 24.13% year-on-year [3][5] Steel Prices & Profits - As of February 6, the comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,414.2 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 13.31 yuan/ton, or 0.39%, and down 5.51% year-on-year [3] - The comprehensive index for special steel was 6,582.0 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2.28 yuan/ton, or 0.03%, and down 2.88% year-on-year [3] - The profit for rebar from blast furnaces was 65 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.0 yuan/ton week-on-week, or 27.45% [3] - The profit for construction steel from electric furnaces was -76 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.0 yuan/ton week-on-week, or 5.00% [3] Raw Material Situation - As of February 6, the spot price index for Australian powder ore (62% Fe) at Rizhao Port was 764 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 29.0 yuan/ton, or 3.66% [4] - The price for main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,700 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 80.0 yuan/ton [4] - The average available days of iron ore for sample steel enterprises was 31.29 days, an increase of 2.6 days week-on-week [4] Investment Recommendations - The steel sector is expected to have strong "anti-involution" characteristics and significant profit recovery potential, with high-quality steel companies likely to see performance improvements [6][7] - Key companies to focus on include regional leaders with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as those benefiting from the new energy cycle [7]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The manganese - silicon market is mainly characterized by oscillatory movements. The cost of manganese ore remains high, offering strong cost support for silicon - manganese alloys. In 2026, there is a high possibility of an increase in the cost of alloys due to local electricity prices in Inner Mongolia and southern regions. Currently, the supply of silicon - manganese is still under pressure, and the procurement situation of HeSteel Group in February 2026 remains to be verified. It is expected that the price of manganese - silicon will oscillate this week, with the SM2605 contract ranging from 5760 to 5940 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Manganese - Silicon Supply - **Capacity**: Data on the monthly capacity of Chinese manganese - silicon enterprises is presented, but no analysis is provided [7]. - **Annual Output**: Annual output data of manganese - silicon in Guangxi, Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Yunnan, and other regions, as well as China's total annual output, are shown [9]. - **Weekly, Monthly Output and开工率**: Weekly and monthly output data of Chinese manganese - silicon, along with the weekly开工率 of Chinese manganese - silicon enterprises, are presented [12]. - **Regional Output**: Monthly output data of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guizhou, and daily average output data of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guizhou, and Guangxi are provided [13][14]. Manganese - Silicon Demand - **Steel Tendering Purchase Price**: Monthly purchase prices of manganese - silicon (6517) by Baosteel Co., Ltd., Baowu E'gang, Chengde Jianlong, Heilongjiang Jianlong, Yangchun Iron and Steel, Jilin Jianlong, and Nanjing Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. are shown [17]. - **Daily Average Hot Metal and Profitability**: Weekly data on the daily average hot metal output of 247 Chinese steel enterprises and their weekly profitability are presented [19]. Manganese - Silicon Import and Export - Monthly import and export quantities of Chinese ferromanganese - silicon are provided [21]. Manganese - Silicon Inventory - Weekly inventory data of 63 sample Chinese manganese - silicon enterprises, monthly average available days of Chinese manganese - silicon inventory, and monthly average available days of manganese - silicon inventory in the northern region and East China are presented [23]. Manganese - Silicon Cost - **Manganese Ore Import Volume**: Monthly import volume data of manganese ore in different trade methods, from Gabon, southern Africa, and Australia to China are shown [25]. - **Manganese Ore Port Inventory and Available Days**: Weekly port inventory data of Chinese manganese ore, including Qinzhou Port and Tianjin Port, and weekly average available days of Chinese manganese ore inventory are presented [27]. - **High - Grade Manganese Ore Port Inventory**: Weekly port inventory data of Australian, Gabonese, and Brazilian high - grade manganese ores in Qinzhou Port and Tianjin Port are provided [29]. - **Tianjin Port Manganese Ore Price**: Daily price data of South African semi - carbonate manganese lumps (Mn36.5%), Australian manganese ore (Mn45%), and Gabonese manganese lumps (Mn44.5%) in Tianjin Port are shown [30]. - **Regional Cost**: Daily cost data of manganese - silicon in Inner Mongolia, the northern region, Ningxia, the southern region, and Guangxi are presented [31]. Manganese - Silicon Profit - Daily profit data of manganese - silicon in the northern region, southern region, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi are presented [33].

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨钢铁 [Table_Title] 铁矿供需趋弱，如何展望铁矿石的价格？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年开始，铁矿基本面宽松的格局逐步显现。尽管国内铁水产量不降反增——钢联口径， 247 家样本钢企日均铁水产量 236.79 万吨，同比增 3.1%，意味着铁矿需求端的支撑强劲；然 而，铁矿企业供应量的增长，以及海外对铁矿需求的弱势，使得国内铁矿供给的增长比需求更 显著——结果是，当前铁矿石港口库存达到 1.71 亿吨，为有纪录以来的最高位，超过了 2016~2018 年供改和 2021 年国内粗钢产量平控期间，铁矿港口库存累积的幅度。然而，与铁 矿供需趋弱相矛盾的，是矿价的高居不下。如何展望铁矿石的价格？ 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 赵超 易轰 吕士诚 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490520080012 SAC：S0490525080005 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUY139 SFC：BUZ394 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% re ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Bullish" [2]. Report's Core View - The current inventory accumulation pressure of the five major steel products is relatively limited, with the overall inventory at a relatively low level in history and the inventory accumulation speed slower than in previous years. Coupled with the supply support formed by the potential slight contraction of local production capacity due to recent safety inspections, the steel inventory pressure is limited. Currently, the profit per ton of general steel is considerable. Against the backdrop of the industry's "anti - involution," the performance improvement space of general steel companies is large, and they are expected to experience value restoration. The steel sector is also expected to present an opportunity for allocation. Based on the judgment of the steel industry cycle, the steel sector has strong "anti - involution" attributes and a large profit restoration space. High - quality steel enterprises have excellent upward elasticity brought about by the gradual restoration of performance and the room for the sector's valuation to rise due to the improvement of the supply pattern. The sector still has medium - to - long - term strategic investment opportunities, so the "Bullish" rating for the industry is maintained [2][3]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. This Week's Performance of the Steel Sector and Individual Stocks - The steel sector fell 3.02% this week, underperforming the broader market. The CSI 300 fell 1.33% to 4643.60. The top three sectors in terms of gains and losses were food and beverage (4.44%), textile and apparel (2.23%), and banking (2.09%) [10]. - The special steel sector fell 2.10%, the long - product sector fell 1.88%, the plate sector fell 3.84%, the iron ore sector fell 1.74%, the steel consumables sector fell 3.02%, and the trade and distribution sector fell 4.006% [2][13][17]. - The top three stocks in the steel sector in terms of gains and losses were Boyun New Materials (9.79%), Dazhong Mining (5.92%), and Shengde Xintai (4.72%) [15]. 2. This Week's Core Data Supply - As of February 6, the daily average hot metal output was 228.58 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.60 million tons (0.26%) and a year - on - year increase of 0.06% [25]. - As of February 6, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of sample steel enterprises was 85.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.22 percentage points [25]. - As of February 6, the electric furnace capacity utilization rate of sample steel enterprises was 48.1%, a week - on - week decrease of 7.59 percentage points [25]. - As of February 6, the output of the five major steel products was 720.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.55 million tons (0.21%) [25]. Demand - As of February 6, the consumption of the five major steel products was 760.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41.08 million tons (5.12%) [35]. - As of February 6, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream trading companies was 3.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.25 million tons (48.24%) [35]. - As of February 1, 2026, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 1.655 million square meters, a week - on - week increase of 226,000 square meters [35]. - As of February 8, the net financing amount of local government special bonds was 1.0851 trillion yuan, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 121.74% [35]. Inventory - As of February 6, the social inventory of the five major steel products was 940.4 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 49.68 million tons (5.58%) and a year - on - year decrease of 18.04% [43]. - As of February 6, the in - plant inventory of the five major steel products was 397.3 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.56 million tons (2.47%) and a year - on - year decrease of 24.13% [43]. Steel Prices - As of February 6, the general steel composite index was 3414.2 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 13.31 yuan/ton (0.39%) and a year - on - year decrease of 5.51% [49]. - As of February 6, the special steel composite index was 6582.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.28 yuan/ton (0.03%) and a year - on - year decrease of 2.88% [49]. Steel Mill Profits - As of January 30, the national average hot metal cost was 2396 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 12.0 yuan/ton [57]. - As of February 6, the profit per ton of construction steel electric furnace at normal electricity price was - 76 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4.0 yuan/ton (5.00%) [57]. - As of February 6, the profit per ton of blast furnace for rebar was 65 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 14.0 yuan/ton (27.45%) [57]. - As of February 6, the profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 39.39%, unchanged from the previous week [57]. Futures - Spot Basis - As of February 6, the spot basis of hot - rolled coils was - 1 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 17.0 yuan/ton [65]. - As of February 6, the spot basis of rebar was 143 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 21.0 yuan/ton [65]. - As of February 6, the spot basis of coke was - 117 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 18.0 yuan/ton [65]. - As of February 6, the spot basis of coking coal was 73.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 21.5 yuan/ton [65]. - As of February 6, the spot basis of iron ore was 4.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.0 yuan/ton [65]. Raw Materials: Price & Profit - As of February 6, the spot price index of Australian powder ore in Rizhao Port (62% Fe) was 764 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 29.0 yuan/ton [74]. - As of February 5, the ex - warehouse price of main coking coal in Jingtang Port was 1700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 80.0 yuan/ton [74]. - As of February 6, the ex - factory price of first - grade metallurgical coke was 1770 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [74]. - As of February 6, the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was - 10 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 45.0 yuan/ton [74]. - As of February 6, the price difference between hot metal and scrap steel was 66.3 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 51.9 yuan/ton [74]. 3. Valuation Table and Key Announcements of Listed Companies Valuation Table of Listed Companies - The table shows the closing prices, net profits attributable to parent companies, EPS, and P/E ratios of multiple listed steel companies from 2024 to 2027 [75]. Key Announcements of Listed Companies - Youfa Group plans to invest in establishing a wholly - owned subsidiary, Guangdong Youfa Pipe Industry Technology Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 500 million yuan [76]. - Hainan Mining is planning to acquire the control rights of Luoyang Fengrui Fluorine Industry Co., Ltd. through the issuance of shares and payment of cash and raise supporting funds. The company's stock has been suspended since January 29, 2026, with an expected suspension time of no more than 10 trading days [76]. - Hualing Steel has repurchased 56,023,339 shares as of January 31, 2026, accounting for 0.8109% of the total share capital, with a total transaction amount of 278,597,423.90 yuan [78]. - Anyang Iron and Steel expects a loss of about 460 million yuan in 2025, with a year - on - year reduction of about 85.94% in the loss amount. The net profit after deducting non - recurring gains and losses is expected to be about - 748 million yuan, with a year - on - year reduction of about 77.44% in the loss amount [78]. 4. This Week's Important Industry News - The new - home transactions in 10 major cities increased by 26.8% week - on - week, indicating a warming of real estate demand and having a marginal boost to the demand for construction steel [79]. - Indonesia has suspended the spot coal export due to the government's production cut plan, which may affect China's coal supply and be negative for steel prices [79]. - As of February 2, 23 listed steel companies have released their 2025 performance forecasts, with 12 in profit and 11 in loss [79]. - In January 2026, the sales volume of excavators in China was 18,708 units, a year - on - year increase of 49.5%, with domestic sales increasing by 61.4% and exports increasing by 40.5% [79].