证 券 研 究 报 告 食品饮料行业周报（20260119-20260125） 推荐（维持） 白酒减仓至历史底部，餐饮链及节庆食品迎催化 行业研究 食品饮料 2026 年 01 月 26 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：欧阳予 邮箱：ouyangyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520070001 证券分析师：范子盼 联系人：王培培 邮箱：fanzipan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360520090001 证券分析师：田晨曦 邮箱：tianchenxi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522090005 证券分析师：刘旭德 邮箱：liuxude@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080010 证券分析师：严文炀 邮箱：yanwenyang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525070006 证券分析师：董广阳 邮箱：dongguangyang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518040001 邮箱：wangpeipei@hcyjs.com 联系人：寸特彬 邮箱：cuntebin@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the food and beverage industry [5] Core Insights - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to boost sales in the liquor sector, with Moutai leading the industry towards an unexpected improvement. Short-term focus should be on the demand for the Spring Festival, while medium-term investments should target leading brands across various price segments [1] - In the beer segment, new product launches are being prepared, with a focus on high-growth channels and consumer trends towards personalized and diversified consumption [2] - The baking sector is showing stable performance, with companies like Lihigh Foods preparing for the sales peak and benefiting from favorable policies regarding cream products [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquor Sector - The Spring Festival is driving demand, with Moutai expected to lead the market. Key short-term stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Guo Jiu Gong Jiu, and others, while medium-term focus should be on Wuliangye and Shanxi Fenjiu [1] Beer Sector - Current beer sales are in a low season, but new product launches and high growth in instant retail channels are promising. Companies like Chongqing Beer are launching new 1L cans to meet consumer preferences [2] Food Sector - Lihigh Foods is preparing for the sales peak with a focus on quality over quantity, while Anqi Yeast is benefiting from declining sugarcane prices, enhancing profit margins [3] - Yizhi Konjac is experiencing rapid demand growth, with a stable supply chain and product innovation driving its market position [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The food and beverage sector is currently at a low position in terms of fundamentals and valuations, presenting significant investment opportunities as the peak season approaches [4][12] - The food and beverage index experienced a decline of 1.4% from January 19 to January 23, ranking 25th among 28 sectors, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.8 percentage points [12][13] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, indicating a mild recovery trend, and has returned to relatively high levels compared to recent years [4][12] - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to catalyze performance in the sector, with strong demand for consumer goods, particularly in the snack segment, which continues to show upward momentum [4][12] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The food and beverage sector is positioned for a recovery as it approaches the peak season, with a notable increase in demand expected during the Spring Festival [4][12] - The sector's current valuation aligns with policy support aimed at boosting consumption, providing a safety margin for investments [4][12] Market Performance - The food and beverage index's performance was weaker than the broader market, with specific sub-sectors like snacks (+6.1%), processed foods (+4.9%), and baked goods (+4.3%) showing relative strength [12][13] Upstream Data - Recent data indicates a decline in some upstream raw material prices, with whole milk powder prices down 13.5% year-on-year as of January 20, 2026 [19][21] - The price of fresh milk was reported at 3.03 CNY per kilogram, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.6% [19][21] Alcohol Industry Data - In December 2025, the production of liquor (65-degree equivalent) decreased by 12.1% year-on-year, with a total production of 354.9 million liters for the year [42][43] Recommended Investment Targets - Key investment opportunities identified include raw milk/dairy products, the snack sector, and the restaurant supply chain, with specific companies highlighted for their growth potential [4][5][12]

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the RMB is expected to benefit the food and beverage sector through reduced import costs, improved domestic demand, and increased foreign investment allocation [1][2]. Group 1: Recent Developments - The RMB has accelerated its appreciation, breaking the 7 mark offshore on December 25 and reaching 6.96 onshore by January 22, indicating enhanced economic momentum and improved export competitiveness [1]. - Historical analysis shows that during previous RMB appreciation cycles (May-November 2020 and November-December 2022), the food and beverage sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 18% and 12%, respectively [2]. Group 2: Cost, Demand, and Valuation Dynamics - Cost: The appreciation of the RMB reduces the converted prices of imported raw materials, leading to lower manufacturing costs and improved profitability. Key raw materials affected include soybeans, palm oil, oats, barley, and tree nuts [2]. - Demand: The recovery of domestic demand is a fundamental support for the strong RMB, which will further lower companies' restocking costs, shifting the industry from passive destocking to active restocking, thus reinforcing demand resilience [2]. - Valuation: The liquidity remains ample during the RMB appreciation cycle, enhancing the inflow of foreign capital into A-shares, which is expected to bring liquidity premiums to the food and beverage sector, known for its high foreign ownership [2]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report highlights three main lines of focus for investment: 1. Cost benefits, recommending companies such as Ximai Food, Lihigh Food, Miaokelando, Qiaqia Food, and H&H [3]. 2. Demand recovery, recommending companies like Anjijia Food, Qianwei Central Kitchen, Youran Dairy, Modern Farming, New Dairy, and Wancheng Group [3]. 3. Valuation recovery, recommending companies including Yili Group, Mengniu Dairy, Xianle Health, Weilong Delicious, and Yanjinpuzi [3].

Core Viewpoint - Ximai Food, known as the "first oat stock" in China, is facing renewed market scrutiny due to product quality issues, specifically the detection of excessive microbial counts in its "nutritional oat flakes for the elderly" [2][4][5] Group 1: Product Quality Issues - The National Market Supervision Administration reported that Ximai's oat flakes exceeded the national food safety standard for microbial counts, with all five samples tested showing levels above the acceptable limit of 10,000 CFU/g [4] - This is not the first instance of Ximai's products failing quality checks, with previous incidents of mold contamination reported in 2020 and 2024 [5] - The company attributes the recent quality issues to poor management by distributors rather than production flaws, and has initiated recalls and strengthened oversight of distribution channels [4][5] Group 2: Market Position and Challenges - Ximai Food holds a 26% market share in China's oat market, which is projected to exceed 10.134 billion yuan in 2024, but the industry's growth rate is slowing, with a forecasted compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of only 1.1% from 2024 to 2029 [6] - The company is facing increasing competition from both domestic and international brands, prompting it to explore new growth avenues in the health sector [6][8] - Despite being a market leader, Ximai's reliance on traditional oat products, which account for approximately 90% of its revenue, poses risks as the sector matures [8] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - In 2023, Ximai launched a probiotic protein powder, generating over 10 million yuan in sales within four months, indicating potential in the health market [6][7] - The company plans to expand its health product line in 2024, introducing various new items such as collagen peptide drinks and probiotic powders [7] - However, the contribution of these new products to overall revenue remains limited, with traditional oat products still dominating sales [8] Group 4: Future Outlook - Experts suggest that while the shift to high-value health products aligns with strategic goals, Ximai must overcome challenges in consumer education and channel development to succeed [8][9] - The ongoing quality control issues may divert resources and focus from new business initiatives, potentially jeopardizing the "recreate a new Ximai" plan [9]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - Recent appreciation of the RMB is expected to continue, enhancing domestic asset attractiveness and improving the competitiveness of export products [1] - Historical analysis shows that during previous RMB appreciation periods, the food and beverage sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 18% and 12% respectively, indicating strong performance potential in the current cycle [2] - The current RMB appreciation is anticipated to create a triple resonance effect in the sector, leading to cost reduction, increased demand, and valuation recovery [2] Summary by Sections Cost Side - RMB appreciation reduces the import cost of raw materials, leading to lower manufacturing costs and improved profitability. Key raw materials affected include soybeans, palm oil, oats, barley, and tree nuts [2] Demand Side - Domestic demand recovery is a fundamental support for the strengthening RMB. The appreciation will lower inventory replenishment costs for companies, shifting the industry from passive destocking to active replenishment, thus reinforcing domestic demand resilience [2] Capital Side - The liquidity remains ample during the RMB appreciation cycle, increasing foreign capital inflow into A-shares. The food and beverage sector, with a high proportion of foreign holdings, is expected to benefit from valuation recovery driven by increased foreign allocation [2] Investment Recommendations - Focus on three main lines of investment: 1. Cost benefits: Recommended companies include Ximai Food, Lihigh Food, Miaokelando, Qiaqia Food, and H&H [3] 2. Demand recovery: Recommended companies include Anjijia Food, Qianwei Central Kitchen, Youran Livestock, Modern Dairy, New Dairy, and Wancheng Group [3] 3. Valuation recovery: Recommended companies include Yili, Mengniu Dairy, Xianle Health, Weilong Delicious, and Yanjinpuzi [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Key companies and their respective ratings, earnings per share (EPS) forecasts, and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the years 2024 to 2027 are provided, indicating a positive outlook for several companies in the sector [7]

在随后举行的圆桌论坛上，中国农业科学院质标所所长孙君茂、福建农林大学林文雄和廖红教授、安溪县副县长谢建新、中国联通集团政企客户事业群农业 行业服务部总经理周海燕、中农集团现代农业服务有限公司副总经理杨璐等嘉宾，围绕"碳标签推动农业绿色转型"主题展开深度研讨，从政策支持、市场赋 能、认证规范、产品实践等多角度，深度探讨茶产业碳中和的创新路径与未来方向，一致认为将碳管理贯穿农产品研发、种植、加工、销售各关节，应用碳 标签进行可视化和市场化引导，是推动我国农业向绿色低碳专项的核心工程，需要研发机构、市场经营主体、政府管理部门、消费者等多方力量同向同行、 合力攻坚。 发布会由环发所党委书记郝志强、副所长郝卫平共同主持，在发布会核心环节，郝卫平正式发布"安溪铁观音碳中和茶"。安溪县作为中国乌龙茶之乡、世界 名茶铁观音的发源地与全国重点产茶县，在此次碳中和茶的研发与发布中发挥了关键引领与示范带动作用。据介绍，在安溪县人民政府与中国农科院环发 所、福建农林大学共建的"环发所茶产业碳中和研究院"支撑下，依托长期开展的生态茶园建设与"双碳"行动，该产品经由碳足迹核算与第三方认证，以有机 物料替代、微藻肥补充、生物多样性恢复、减 ...

Summary of Ximai Foods Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Ximai Foods - **Industry**: Oat Products Key Points and Arguments Industry and Market Trends - Benefiting from a bumper harvest of oats in Australia, the average procurement price of oats is expected to decrease by at least 10% year-on-year in 2026, with a continued downward trend anticipated in 2027 [2][3] - The main raw material, imported oats from Australia, constitutes 35%-40% of production costs, which have been under pressure due to rising prices from 2018 to 2024 [3] Financial Performance and Projections - The company expects a stable revenue growth of approximately 20% over the next two to three years, driven by new product iterations and channel expansion [2][5] - A 10% decrease in Australian oat costs is projected to increase the company's gross margin by 2 percentage points [2][3] - The sales expense ratio has been around 30% in recent years but is expected to decline steadily due to scale effects and channel optimization [4] Product Development and Innovation - Continuous optimization of product structure with the introduction of high-end organic oats and composite oats, which have gross margins 8-10 percentage points higher than regular oats [2][3] - Development of high-value products such as gift boxes is contributing positively to gross margins [2] Channel Strategy - The company plans to enhance online and offline channel expense structures starting in 2027, focusing on precise online marketing and adjusting traditional supermarket costs [4][7] - Emphasis on new channels such as Douyin (TikTok), snack wholesale, and O2O (Online to Offline) models to capture market share [5][6] Health and Wellness Segment - The health and wellness segment is identified as a second growth curve, with new products like medicinal food powders and protein powders expected to contribute to mid-term revenue growth [2][10] - The revenue from the health segment is projected to exceed 2 billion yuan in 2026, aiming for 3 to 5 billion yuan in the following three years [10] Management and Strategic Changes - The new general manager has focused on product innovation, channel transformation, and health sector development since taking office in July 2025 [11] - A stock incentive plan was implemented in 2025, requiring a revenue growth of over 15% in the next two years to ensure stability [11] Valuation and Investment Potential - Current valuations do not reflect the potential benefits from cost reductions and growth in the health segment [12] - The company is recommended for investment focus due to expected dual improvements in performance and valuation driven by cost reductions and new channel breakthroughs [12] Additional Important Insights - The company is expected to increase its market share in the oat sector to 30% by 2027-2028, leveraging its leading position and consumer health trends [8][9] - The focus on young consumers and health-conscious demographics is driving product acceptance and market growth [8]

Core Viewpoint - Ximai Food, known as "China's Oatmeal First Stock," has been flagged for non-compliance with microbial standards, following a previous incident of excessive mold levels in 2024, raising concerns about its product safety and quality control measures [1][7]. Group 1: Product Quality Issues - Ximai Food's "Middle-aged Nutritional Oatmeal" was found to have unacceptable total bacterial counts, exceeding the national food safety standards during a recent inspection of 2,136 samples, with 40 samples identified as non-compliant [2][4]. - The specific bacterial counts for the oatmeal samples were recorded as 34,000 CFU/g, 49,000 CFU/g, 18,000 CFU/g, 15,000 CFU/g, and 25,000 CFU/g, all surpassing the allowable limits [2][4]. - The company attributed the quality issues to improper management by a distributor, which has since terminated its partnership with Ximai [1][7]. Group 2: Historical Context and Recurrent Issues - This incident follows a previous case in late 2024 where another product, "High-Calcium Milk Oatmeal," was also flagged for excessive mold, with counts significantly exceeding the safety limit [7][8]. - Ximai has faced multiple quality control issues in the past, including a 2019 incident involving "Oatmeal Walnut Powder" due to mold contamination [8]. - The frequency of these quality problems coincides with Ximai's strategic push into the health market, which may undermine consumer trust and impact sales and partnerships [8]. Group 3: Regulatory and Market Implications - The National Market Supervision Administration indicated that such issues may stem from inadequate control over production and processing hygiene, as well as potential problems with packaging and storage conditions [4]. - As Ximai aims to establish a new growth trajectory focused on health products, the ongoing quality concerns could jeopardize its brand value, which is closely tied to food safety [8].

证券日报网讯1月21日，西麦食品（002956）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，截至2026年1月20日， 公司股东户数为10652户。 ...