有券商机构指出，1月制造业PMI（采购经理指数）再度回落到荣枯线以下，反映出有效需求仍不足。A 股流动性支撑延续，临近2026年春节长假，市场交投活跃度依然处于较高水平，短期市场或仍以结构性 震荡为主。 每经记者：刘明涛每经编辑：彭水萍 上周，随着热门板块出现高位震荡，A股主要股指迎来调整，均出现小幅回落，每经品牌100指数在蓝 筹股带动下，周涨幅为0.51%。 有市场人士认为，短期来看，A股市场在交投活跃支撑下，或将延续盘整过程。 "中字头"个股表现出色 上周，A股市场主要指数波动加剧，从周K线来看，截至1月30日收盘，上证指数下跌0.44%，以4117.95 点报收；深证成指下跌1.62%，以14205.89点报收；创业板指和科创50指数周跌幅分别达到0.09%和 2.85%，每经品牌100指数实现小幅反弹，周涨0.51%，以1154.56点报收。 市场热点方面，A股市场板块轮动速度加快，周内半导体、白酒、地产等板块阶段性走高，但行情持续 性仍显不足。经历近期持续上涨后，受国际贵金属价格高位回落影响，上周五有色金属板块大幅回调。 成分股方面，"中字头"个股上周表现出色，中国海油、中国石油以及中国重汽周涨幅 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil processing industry [1]. Core Insights - International oil prices have significantly strengthened due to escalating geopolitical risks in Iran and adverse weather conditions affecting U.S. oil production. As of January 30, 2026, Brent and WTI prices were reported at $69.32 and $65.21 per barrel, respectively, marking increases of 6.53% and 6.78% from the previous week [2][9]. - The oil and petrochemical sector has shown strong performance, with the sector index rising by 7.95% as of January 30, 2026, compared to a slight increase of 0.08% in the broader market index [10]. - The report highlights a notable increase in the number of active offshore drilling platforms, with a total of 376 self-elevating platforms and 134 floating platforms as of January 26, 2026 [26]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - Brent crude futures settled at $69.32 per barrel, up $4.25 (+6.53%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures rose to $65.21 per barrel, an increase of $4.14 (+6.78%) [23]. - The Urals crude price remained stable at $65.49 per barrel, while ESPO crude increased by $4.42 (+8.66%) to $55.46 per barrel [23]. Offshore Drilling Services - The global count of self-elevating drilling platforms remained at 376, while floating platforms increased by one to a total of 134 [26]. U.S. Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production was reported at 13.696 million barrels per day, a decrease of 36,000 barrels from the previous week. The number of active drilling rigs remained stable at 411 [32]. - The U.S. fracking fleet decreased by 15 units to a total of 148 [32]. U.S. Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude processing averaged 16.209 million barrels per day, down by 395,000 barrels from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 90.90%, a decline of 2.4 percentage points [40]. U.S. Oil Inventory - Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 839 million barrels, a decrease of 1.78 million barrels (-0.21%) from the previous week. Strategic reserves increased by 515,000 barrels (+0.12%), while commercial inventories fell by 2.295 million barrels (-0.54%) [49]. Related Companies - Key companies in the sector include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The threat of the US to strike Iran has led to an upward oscillation in international oil prices [1]. - This week, the average weekly prices of Brent and WTI crude oil futures were $68.6 and $63.4 per barrel respectively, up $3.8 and $3.2 from last week [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Crude Oil Weekly Data Briefing - The data sources include Bloomberg, WIND, EIA, TSA, Baker Hughes, and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [8][9]. 2. This Week's Performance Review of the Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector - **2.1 Performance of the Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector**: Information on the sector's performance and the performance of sub - industries, as well as the performance of the sector and the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index, is presented, but specific data is not provided in the text [11][18]. - **2.2 Performance of Listed Companies in the Sector**: - The report provides the latest prices, total market values, and price changes in the past week, month, three months, one year, and since the beginning of 2026 for multiple listed companies such as CNOOC, PetroChina, and Sinopec [23]. - A valuation table shows the stock prices, total market values, net profits attributable to the parent company, PE, and PB of these companies from 2024 to 2027 [25]. 3. Crude Oil Sector Data Tracking - **3.1 Crude Oil Prices**: It includes the prices and price differences of Brent, WTI, Russian Urals, and ESPO crude oils, as well as the relationships between the US dollar index, LME copper price, and WTI crude oil price [29][31][40]. - **3.2 Crude Oil Inventory**: Analyzes the correlations between US commercial crude oil inventory and oil prices, the weekly destocking speed of US commercial crude oil and the increase or decrease of Brent oil prices, and presents the total, commercial, strategic, and Cushing crude oil inventories in the US [43][44][49]. - **3.3 Crude Oil Supply**: Covers US crude oil production, the number of active oil rigs, and the number of active fracturing fleets, as well as their relationships with oil prices [63][64][66]. - **3.4 Crude Oil Demand**: Focuses on US refinery crude oil processing volume, refinery operating rates, Shandong refinery seasonal operating rates, and the operating rates of major refineries in China [71][73][75]. - **3.5 Crude Oil Import and Export**: Details the import, export, and net import volumes of US crude oil and crude oil and petroleum products [79][81]. 4. Refined Oil Sector Data Tracking - **4.1 Refined Oil Prices**: Analyzes the relationship between international oil prices and domestic gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene prices and price differences, as well as the price differences between crude oil and refined oil in the US, Europe, and Singapore [86][109][114]. - **4.2 Refined Oil Inventory**: Presents the inventories of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in the US and Singapore [124][128][136]. - **4.3 Refined Oil Supply**: Covers the production volumes of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in the US [144][145]. - **4.4 Refined Oil Demand**: Focuses on the consumption volumes of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in the US and the number of airport security checks for passengers [148][149][153]. - **4.5 Refined Oil Import and Export**: Details the import, export, and net export volumes of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in the US [161][167][168]. 5. Oil Service Sector Data Tracking - It shows the average daily fees of self - elevating drilling platforms and semi - submersible drilling platforms in the industry [176][181].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the oil and petrochemical sector, with the sector outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by +8.40% this week [10]. Core Insights - Geopolitical factors remain the primary driver in the current oil market, with significant attention on the potential for conflict between the US and Iran. The market is pricing in a geopolitical risk premium of approximately $8-10 per barrel related to Iran [15][17]. - The report anticipates that if the situation with Iran does not escalate into a full-blown conflict, oil prices may revert to supply-demand fundamentals, potentially leading to a price decline [15][17]. - The report highlights that the recent cold wave and reduced production in Kazakhstan have slowed the accumulation of global inventories, with expectations of a return to a higher accumulation rate in the coming weeks [17][18]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The oil and petrochemical sector has shown a weekly increase of +7.95%, with specific indices such as the oil and gas resources index rising by +7.79% and the oil and gas extraction services index by +7.96% [10][11]. Oil Sector - As of January 29, WTI crude oil was priced at $65.42, up by $6.06, while Brent crude was at $72.57, up by $6.60. The EIA reported a decrease in commercial crude oil inventories by 2.295 million barrels [16][17]. - The report notes that US crude oil production stands at 13.696 million barrels per day, with a decrease in net imports by 61.8% [16]. Refining Sector - The average operating rate of domestic refineries was reported at 80.02%, with a slight increase of 1.24 percentage points from the previous week. The average refining margin for major refineries was 659.83 yuan per ton, down by 101.65 yuan per ton [16]. Polyester Sector - The PX-Naphtha spread has increased to approximately $340 per ton, with PTA processing fees at 374.32 yuan per ton. The report indicates a decline in profitability for polyester products, with average profit levels for various types of polyester showing negative margins [16]. Olefins Sector - The average price for ethylene in the domestic market was reported at 5769 yuan per ton, a slight decrease of 0.33%. The propylene market saw an increase in average transaction prices to 6400 yuan per ton, up by 3.64% [16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the chemical industry, suggesting to focus on leading companies and those experiencing price increases from the bottom [2][3] Core Insights - The chemical market experienced fluctuations, with the Shenwan Chemical Index declining by 0.86%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.94%. However, price increases were noted in various products, including dyes and para-nitrochlorobenzene, driven by the cancellation of export tax rebates, which accelerated export activities [2] - The AI industry shows strong demand, positively impacting the entire supply chain. Notable performances include ASML's Q4 results, which exceeded expectations, and SK Hynix's Q4 operating profit doubling year-on-year, marking the strongest performance in history [2] - The real estate sector is stabilizing as the "three red lines" policy ends, indicating a healthier market moving forward [2][3] Summary by Sections Chemical Market Overview - The chemical market saw a mixed performance, with the Shenwan Chemical Index down 0.86% while the CSI 300 Index rose 0.08%. The textile chemical products sector led gains with a 14.33% increase [11][12] - Key price movements included a rise in disperse dyes to an average of 19 CNY/kg and reactive dyes to 23 CNY/kg, reflecting a 5.56% and 4.55% increase respectively [3][29] AI Industry Developments - The AI sector is witnessing robust growth, with major players like ByteDance and Alibaba planning to launch new AI models around the Spring Festival, and significant investments in AI and cloud computing expected to rise from 380 billion CNY to 480 billion CNY over the next three years [2][4] Real Estate Sector Changes - The end of the "three red lines" policy is expected to lead to a more stable and resilient real estate market, as risks from the previous cycle are gradually cleared [3][4] Price Trends in Key Chemical Products - The report highlights significant price increases in various chemical products, with disperse dyes and reactive dyes showing notable upward trends due to rising raw material costs and limited supply [29][30] - The report also notes that the PA66 market is experiencing upward pressure, with prices rising to 14,954 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.48% increase [33][34]

石油石化 2026 年 2 月 1 日 石油石化周报 伊朗地缘局势严峻，油价短期震荡偏强 强于大市（维持） 行情走势图 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 24/01 24/03 24/05 24/07 24/09 24/11 25/01 25/03 25/05 25/07 25/09 25/11 26/01 沪深300 石油石化 基础化工 证券分析师 核心观点： 投资建议： 证 券 研 究 报 告 本周，我们建议关注石油石化、氟化工、半导体材料板块。石油石化：伊朗局势升级，美欧关系就格陵兰岛问题存在较大波折， 委内油供应能否增加尚存变数，短期内油价或呈现震荡偏强走势；中长期油价锚定基本面，随着 OPEC+增产的推进，美洲国家油 田的开发，基本面过剩格局或将继续演绎，油价仍存在中枢进一步下移的预期。面对国际油价剧烈震荡，国内油企通过上下 游一 体化布局和油气来源多元化降低了业绩对油价的敏感性，并加快在国内海上油气资源开放方面的投入，以降低能源对外依赖程 度。 建议关注增产空间大、成本有优势的中国海油、中曼石油，以及深入炼化一体化布局、降本增效成果较好、企业业绩表现出 较强 韧性的中国石油、恒力石 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the oil and petrochemical sector, with the sector outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by +8.40% this week [10]. Core Insights - The oil market is experiencing a rapid increase in prices due to geopolitical risks, particularly concerning Iran's potential actions in the Strait of Hormuz, with a risk premium estimated at $8-10 per barrel [15][16]. - The overall supply remains in excess, with previous supportive factors like cold weather and reduced production in Kazakhstan starting to stabilize [15]. - The report highlights a mixed performance across various segments of the petrochemical industry, with oil and gas resources showing a +7.79% increase, while the polyester index decreased by -1.82% [10]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The petrochemical sector has outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with various indices showing significant weekly changes, including the oil and gas extraction service index at +7.96% and the refining and chemical index at +6.75% [10][11]. Oil Market - As of January 29, WTI crude oil closed at $65.42, up $6.06 from the previous week, while Brent crude closed at $72.57, up $6.60 [16]. - The EIA reported a decrease in commercial crude oil inventories by 2.295 million barrels, with a notable drop in gasoline inventories as well [16]. Refining Sector - The average operating rate of domestic refineries increased to 80.02%, with a slight rise in gasoline demand due to seasonal travel [16]. - The average refining margin for major refineries was reported at 659.83 yuan per ton, down 101.65 yuan from the previous period [16]. Polyester Sector - The PX-Naphtha spread has risen to approximately $340 per ton, with PTA processing fees reported at 374.32 yuan per ton [15]. - The report notes a decline in profitability for various polyester products, with average profit levels for POY150D at -21.03 yuan per ton [15]. Olefins Market - The average price for ethylene in the domestic market was reported at 5769 yuan per ton, a slight decrease of 0.33% from the previous week [15]. - Propylene prices in Shandong increased by 225 yuan per ton, reflecting a 3.64% rise [15].

2026 年 2 月 1 日 行业研究 地缘政治不确定性驱动油价上行，坚定看好石化板块景气度 ——石油化工行业周报第 438 期（20260126—20260201） 要点 地缘局势紧张抬升油价，预计 26 年油价或在 60-80 美元/桶区间宽幅震荡。 本周伊朗地缘局势紧张程度加剧，原油的地缘政治风险溢价上升，油价上涨。 截至 2026 年 1 月 30 日，布伦特、WTI 原油期货价格分别报收 69.83、65.74 美元/桶，较上周收盘分别上涨 6.7%、7.3%。全球局势持续动荡，地缘政治 的不确定性有望为油价景气奠定基础。此外，考虑到：（1）美国页岩油边际 成本高企，25Q1 调查边际成本约为 65 美元/桶，有望成为原油供给端边际减 量；（2）OPEC+于 26Q1 暂缓增产，体现其平衡油价诉求，长期来看 OPEC+ 各国财政依赖原油销售收入，中高油价诉求有望持续；（3）26 年原油需求预 期向好，IEA 预计 2026 年全球原油需求增长 93 万桶/日，高于 2025 年的 85 万桶/日。我们认为油价未来将在 60-80 美元区间宽幅震荡，油价中高位运行 有望为石化板块景气奠定基础。 全球深 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the industry, but it highlights several investment opportunities across different sectors within the chemical industry. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the approval of the Longhua New Material's polyether project, which is expected to enhance the company's market position and profitability in the domestic polyether sector [3]. - China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) has achieved large-scale production of polyolefin elastomers using gas-phase technology, reducing reliance on imports for strategic emerging industries like photovoltaics [3]. - The report identifies several investment themes, including the competitiveness of domestic tire manufacturers, the potential recovery in consumer electronics, and the resilience of certain cyclical industries [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44%, while the CSI 300 rose by 0.08%. The CITIC Basic Chemical Index decreased by 2.4% [13]. - The top-performing sub-industries included dye chemicals (11.76%), compound fertilizers (4%), and phosphate fertilizers (2.63%), while modified plastics (-7.72%) and potassium fertilizers (-7.61%) were among the worst performers [16]. Key Industry Developments - Longhua New Material's project for producing 200,000 tons of environmentally friendly polyether products has been approved, with a total investment of 600 million yuan, expected to be completed by 2028 [3]. - CNPC's breakthrough in gas-phase production of polyolefin elastomers is set to alleviate import dependence for high-end materials crucial for photovoltaic applications [3]. Investment Themes - **Tire Industry**: Domestic tire companies are becoming increasingly competitive, with recommended stocks including Sailun Tire, Senqilin, and Linglong Tire [4]. - **Consumer Electronics**: A gradual recovery is anticipated, with upstream material companies expected to benefit. Key companies to watch include Dongcai Technology and Stik [4]. - **Cyclical Industries**: Focus on industries with strong resilience and inventory destocking, particularly in phosphate and fluorine chemicals, is advised [4]. - **Vitamin Supply**: Supply disruptions in vitamins A and E due to BASF's force majeure are expected to create supply imbalances, with companies like Zhejiang Medicine and New Hecheng recommended [7]. Sub-Industry Reviews - **Polyurethane**: The report notes price fluctuations in MDI and TDI, with current prices at 17,500 yuan/ton and 14,300 yuan/ton respectively [27][32]. - **Tire Production**: The operating rate for all-steel tires is at 62.41%, while semi-steel tires are at 75.35%, indicating a strong demand in the market [49]. - **Fertilizers**: Urea prices have increased to 1,776.7 yuan/ton, with a slight decrease in production rates noted [62]. Price Trends - The average price for vitamin A is reported at 61.5 yuan/kg, while vitamin E has seen a slight increase to 55.5 yuan/kg [77]. - The price of萤石 has risen to 3,375 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.5% increase [81]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the industry report, highlighting investment opportunities and market dynamics without including risk warnings or disclaimers.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the oil and gas sector, including China National Petroleum Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, Zhongman Petroleum, and New Natural Gas [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that geopolitical tensions and cold weather have led to supply contraction expectations, driving oil prices up significantly. The U.S. oil production was impacted by a winter storm, resulting in a loss of up to 2 million barrels per day, approximately 15% of total U.S. production. Additionally, the report notes that geopolitical developments, particularly regarding Iran and the Middle East, will continue to influence short-term oil price fluctuations [8][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The oil and petrochemical sector saw a 6.9% increase, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 0.1% [16][19]. 2. Market Performance - The report indicates that the oil extraction sub-sector had the highest weekly increase of 12.3%, while the oil product sales and storage sub-sector had the smallest increase of 0.7% [19]. 3. Company Performance - Notable performers in the oil and petrochemical sector included PetroChina, which is recommended for its stable performance and high dividends, and CNOOC, which is highlighted for its low production costs and growth potential [14]. 4. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses OPEC+'s decision to maintain stable oil production levels amidst geopolitical risks and supply concerns. It also mentions the EU's approval to stop importing Russian natural gas by the end of 2027, which could impact global energy dynamics [24][25]. 5. Oil and Gas Prices - As of January 30, Brent crude oil futures settled at $70.69 per barrel, a 7.30% increase week-on-week, while WTI futures rose by 6.78% to $65.21 per barrel. The report also notes a decrease in U.S. oil production and refinery processing rates [12][13]. 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests three main investment lines: focusing on stable industry leaders like PetroChina and Sinopec, considering CNOOC for its strong earnings potential, and looking at growth companies like New Natural Gas and Zhongman Petroleum due to domestic encouragement for oil and gas production [14].