来源丨深蓝财经 撰文丨王鑫 基民的钱包在白酒家电的泥潭里越陷越深，同一基金经理的个人账户却在科技股的狂欢中一路高歌。这 不是电影情节，这是正在发生的现实。 基金评论区已经炸锅了。 愤怒的投资者们发现了一个令人心寒的真相：他们信任的基金经理，正用两种完全不同的策略对待资金 ——一种让基民躺平，一种留给自己躺赢。 泰康基金经理桂跃强因此被推上风口浪尖。这位管理着超20亿元资产的"资深人士"，用基民的钱五年死 守白酒、家电等传统板块，基金亏损高达30%，管理费却照收不误；而据多方信源透露，他自己的账户 早已重仓科技股，一度浮盈超过5000万元。 1 五年死守"老登股"， 基民血亏30% 公开资料显示，桂跃强目前管理6只基金，其中独立管理两只偏股型基金：泰康优势企业混合基金和泰 康蓝筹优势一年持有股票基金。 然而，桂跃强却选择了一条令人费解的道路：死守白酒、家电。 翻开泰康蓝筹优势一年持有股票基金的十大重仓股持仓记录，可以看到一种令人震惊的"稳定性"。 这两只基金自成立以来，业绩均表现惨淡。泰康优势企业混合基金在2020年底成立，至今已超过五年， 目前仍亏损近30%。 | 泰康优势企业混合C(010537) | | ...

今日（1.26），A股震荡走低，大消费窄幅震荡。规模领跑的消费ETF（159928）探底回升收平，全天成交额近8亿元，环比放量 102%，上演"金针探底"走势。资金面上，全天大举揽金2.6亿份，近10日大举净流入超16亿元！最新规模超228亿元，同类遥遥领先！ 白酒方面，1月23日，洋河股份预计2025年全年归母净利润为21.16亿元至25.24亿元，同比下滑62%-68%，创下公司上市以来最大年度 跌幅。更为关键的是，洋河股份删除了此前"现金分红不低于人民币70亿元"的承诺，引发了投资者广泛关注和不满。截至收盘，洋河 股份跌9.85%，逼近跌停，创下2017年以来新低。 政策方面，1月26日，有关部门举行新闻发布会，指出将优化实施消费品以旧换新，促进家电等大宗耐用商品消费。此外，消息人士 称，加快培育服务消费新增长点相关政策近日将推出。1月16日召开的重要会议提出，要加快培育服务消费新增长点，支持新业态新 模式新场景竞相涌现，增加优质服务供给，解决好信用、标准、安全管理等问题，促进服务消费提质惠民。 国际黄金突破5000美元，老铺黄金"逆势打折"股价飙升。1月26日，现货黄金价格突破每盎司5000美元，再刷 ...

Group 1: Brand Collaborations and Marketing Strategies - Tuo Pai Jiu has announced celebrity endorsements with Liu Xiaoqing and Yang Yuguang, aiming to enhance brand visibility through live streaming on Douyin [1] - The trend of celebrity endorsements in the liquor industry is increasing, with brands like Shui Jing Fang and Gu Xiao Jiu also engaging well-known figures to boost sales and brand image [3][5] - The shift in marketing strategy reflects a move towards more consumer-friendly approaches, with brands seeking to connect with younger audiences through relatable celebrities [6][8] Group 2: Industry Performance and Trends - The white liquor production in China has seen a significant decline, with a 19% drop in December 2025 compared to the previous year, marking the ninth consecutive year of decline [9][11] - The total production for 2025 was reported at 354.9 million liters, a cumulative decrease of 12.1% [9][11] - The changing landscape of the liquor market is evident, with a notable increase in the import of white spirits, particularly vodka and tequila, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [13] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - Yanghe Co. has projected a significant decline in profits for 2025, estimating earnings between 2.116 billion to 2.524 billion yuan, a decrease of 62% to 68% year-on-year [28] - The company attributes this downturn to intensified competition and reduced market demand, particularly affecting mid-range and high-end products [28] - Yanghe has also announced a new cash dividend policy, committing to distribute at least 100% of the net profit to shareholders from 2025 to 2027 [29]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles suggests that the public fund holdings in the liquor sector have dropped to a historical low, indicating a potential "golden pit" for investment opportunities as market sentiment is extremely pessimistic [1][2] - Public fund holdings in the liquor sector have decreased for nine consecutive quarters, now standing at 2.9%, close to the historical low of 2015 [2] - Despite the negative sentiment, the fundamentals of high-end liquor brands like Moutai show resilience, with sales and prices performing better than expected [6] Group 2 - The current overweight ratio of the liquor sector is only 1.0%, lower than levels seen in early 2013, indicating that panic selling by institutional investors has likely concluded, creating a clean chip structure [5] - Moutai's sales and pricing have shown improvement, with a price stabilization around 1570 yuan, and cash reserves of major brands like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao provide a strong safety margin during performance fluctuations [6][7] - The upcoming Spring Festival in 2026 is anticipated to be a significant turning point, with expectations of improved sales performance as market pessimism may be overly exaggerated [8]

1月26日午后，食品饮料板块上扬，贵州茅台股价翻红，截至14点10分，贵州茅台涨超1%。此前，或受 指数基金大额流出、卖出权重股，以及批价疲弱的影响，贵州茅台自1月13日以来"9连跌"，累计跌超 6%。 基本面上，截至1月26日，已有5家白酒上市公司披露2025年业绩预告，行业整体承压明显。其中，洋河 股份、口子窖、水井坊的归母净利润同比最大降幅均超过60%；金种子酒、*ST岩石则预计将继续处于 亏损状态。 多家公司在公告中坦言，当前白酒行业处于深度调整期，行业竞争格局发生深刻变革，存量竞争博弈加 剧，导致2025年行业持续低迷。 但也有机构在困境中看到了"机遇"。西部证券曹柳龙指出：当前公募基金持仓白酒已经低于第二轮 （2009年）和第四轮（2019年）白酒周期启动时的仓位，筹码出清，新一轮周期启动的筹码条件已基本 满足。 华创证券董广阳、欧阳予团队认为：2026年全年看，酒企从被动应对进入主动调整，机会在于茅台批价 回落并企稳之后，预期筑底企稳，越往年中越明朗，仓位加起来更确定。 投资工具方面，普通个人投资者可以通过行业主题ETF把握贝塔机会，如食品饮料ETF （515170.SH），相比纯酒类ETF，更 ...

Group 1 - The Low Volatility Dividend Index (H30269.CSI) selects 50 securities with good liquidity, continuous dividends, moderate payout ratios, positive growth in dividends per share, high dividend yields, and low volatility, with a dividend yield of 4.91% as of January 23 [1] - The Low Volatility Dividend ETF (华夏 159547) is the ETF with the lowest comprehensive fee tracking this index, with quarterly evaluations for dividends [1] - The Quality Dividend Index (931468.CSI) selects 50 listed companies with continuous cash dividends, high payout ratios, and strong profitability, with a dividend yield of 3.06% as of January 23 [1] Group 2 - Luzhou Laojiao announced a cash dividend of 1.358 yuan per share (tax included), with the record date on January 29, 2026, and the ex-dividend date on January 30, 2026 [1] - Tianyuan Intelligent announced a cash dividend of 0.02 yuan per share (tax included), with the record date on January 29, 2026, and the ex-dividend date on January 30, 2026 [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market opened higher but experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4141.01 points, a slight increase of 0.12% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.74%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.86% [1] Individual Stock Performance - A total of 3756 stocks declined, while 1606 stocks rose, with 50 stocks hitting the daily limit up [2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 347.8 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] Sector Performance Precious Metals - The precious metals sector saw significant gains, with stocks such as Hunan Gold (002155) hitting the daily limit up, and others like Jin Hui Shares (603132) and Zhao Jin Gold (000506) also achieving 10% limit up [3][5] - The price of spot gold surpassed $5000 per ounce for the first time, increasing by over 1%, while spot silver rose by over 5% [5] Oil and Gas - The oil and gas sector experienced a rally, with major companies like China Petroleum and China Oil & Gas seeing increases of over 4% [6] - International oil prices surged, with WTI and ICE crude oil both rising by over 3% due to escalating geopolitical tensions [6] Financial Sector - The financial sector showed upward movement, with securities stocks rising, and insurance and banking stocks also performing well [8] - Notable gains were seen in stocks like Caitong Securities (601108) and Xingye Securities, both increasing by over 4% [9] Alcoholic Beverages - The liquor sector faced a downturn, with a decline of over 1%, particularly affected by a significant drop in Yanghe Shares (002304), which fell by over 8% [13] - Yanghe Shares projected a net profit decline of 62.18% to 68.30% for the fiscal year 2025, indicating potential financial distress [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the liquor industry, indicating a bottoming out and potential for a rebound during the Spring Festival, with a focus on key stocks such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu [5][16]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the safety margin for liquor companies is derived more from brand strength, market share, and sales momentum rather than just dividend yields, which are expected to be adjusted downwards for the years 2025-2026 [1][16]. - Recent sales tracking shows that Moutai's sales and pricing are better than market expectations, with a slight increase in overall channel sales volume and stable pricing [1][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of cash flow and dividend planning, with companies like Yanghe planning to maintain dividends at no less than 100% of their net profit for 2025-2027 [2][11]. Summary by Relevant Sections Core Company Tracking - Yanghe's net profit for 2025 is projected to be between 2.12 billion and 2.52 billion yuan, a decline of 62.2%-68.3% year-on-year, with a focus on inventory reduction and price stabilization [2][11]. - Yanjing Beer expects a net profit of 1.58 billion to 1.74 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 50.0%-65.0%, with plans to launch a high-end product in 2026 [3][12]. - Yihai International anticipates low single-digit growth in H2 2025, driven by improved gross margins and a return of key personnel, which is expected to enhance business performance [4][13]. - IFBH is expected to face pressure in H2 2025, but with potential recovery in 2026 as supply issues are resolved [4][14]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a bottom-up approach to investing in liquor stocks, with a focus on key players and potential rebounds in sales, particularly in the context of the upcoming Spring Festival [5][16]. - It identifies four main lines for consumer goods: restaurant chains, dairy products, valuation-matched companies, and bottom-up recovery plays [5][17]. Industry Overview - The report notes that the food and beverage industry has a total market capitalization of 4,560.2 billion yuan, with 142 listed companies [5]. - The industry index shows a 1-month performance of 0.6%, a 6-month performance of 4.4%, and a 12-month performance of 17.7% [7].

Core Viewpoint - Luzhou Laojiao, a company with a market value of over 100 billion, is set to implement a mid-term dividend plan totaling approximately 2 billion yuan (including tax), highlighting its financial stability and commitment to shareholder returns amidst industry challenges [2][4]. Group 1: Dividend Plans - The mid-term dividend plan involves a cash distribution of 13.58 yuan per 10 shares, based on a total share capital of 1.472 billion shares, with a total payout of around 2 billion yuan [2][4]. - Luzhou Laojiao's shareholder return plan states that annual dividends will not be less than 8.5 billion yuan for the years 2024-2026, with a minimum payout ratio of 65%, 70%, and 75% of net profit for those years respectively [4][10]. - In 2024, the company plans to distribute a total of approximately 8.759 billion yuan in dividends, exceeding the minimum target outlined in its shareholder return plan [4][10]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Luzhou Laojiao reported revenues of 23.127 billion yuan and a net profit of 10.762 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year declines of 4.84% and 7.17% respectively [6]. - The overall white liquor market is experiencing pressure, with major companies like Luzhou Laojiao facing declining performance due to macroeconomic factors and high inventory levels [6][11]. Group 3: Industry Context - Other leading companies in the white liquor sector, such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, are also implementing mid-term dividend plans, indicating a trend among top firms to ensure shareholder returns despite market challenges [8][9]. - Kweichow Moutai's mid-term dividend for 2025 is set at 300.01 billion yuan, while Wuliangye plans to distribute 100.07 billion yuan, showcasing the competitive landscape in dividend payouts among leading brands [8][9].

Group 1 - The core focus of the article is on the performance and strategic adjustments of funds managed by Zhang Kun of E Fund, highlighting the significant differentiation in fund performance and his outlook on domestic consumption and investment opportunities [1][2][3] Group 2 - In Q4 2025, Zhang Kun's managed fund size decreased to 48.3 billion yuan, with a quarterly reduction exceeding 8 billion yuan [2][3] - The largest fund, E Fund Blue Chip Selection Mixed Fund (005827.OF), experienced a nearly 9% loss in Q4, underperforming its benchmark by over 6%, while the E Fund Asia Select Stock Fund (118001.OF) achieved a 4.5% positive return, outperforming its benchmark by over 2% and recording a nearly 42% increase for the entire year [2][3][4] Group 3 - Zhang Kun continued to reduce holdings in the liquor sector, albeit at a slower pace compared to Q3 2025, maintaining a near 10% position in leading liquor stocks like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [4][5][6] - Significant reductions were also noted in pharmaceutical and media stocks, with JD Health seeing a cut of about half in holdings, alongside Tencent Holdings and Focus Media [5][6][7] Group 4 - In overseas investments, Samsung Electronics replaced Tencent Holdings as the top holding in the E Fund Asia Select, with Zhang Kun opting to take profits as stock prices surged [6][7][8] Group 5 - Zhang Kun expressed a strong belief in the future of domestic consumption, arguing that current consumer weakness is not a permanent state and will improve, supported by government goals for income growth and stabilization of housing prices [8][9][10] - He emphasized that a robust domestic consumption market is crucial for technological innovation, suggesting that increased consumer spending will benefit domestic AI companies and accelerate their development [10][11][12] - Zhang Kun remains optimistic about the long-term potential of Chinese consumption and economic growth, viewing current market valuations of quality companies as attractive for long-term investors [10][11][12]