Report Title - Black Metal Weekly Report - Iron Ore [1] Report Date - September 16, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The supply of iron ore has recovered this period, with a significant rebound in shipments and a decline in arrivals compared to the previous period. On the demand side, after the parade, blast furnaces resumed production, and the molten iron output returned to the level before September 3. Overall, both supply and demand increased, with limited overall contradictions and intensified long - short game. In terms of valuation, the recent continuous contraction of spot and futures steel profits per ton has an impact on the raw material fluctuation rhythm. Unilateral attention should be paid to the fluctuation range of 95 (756) - 105 (836) US dollars [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental and Conclusion - **Price**: Last week, the mainstream spot prices of iron ore rebounded, with weekly increases ranging from 2 - 15 yuan. As of September 15, the Platts 62% index closed at $105.5, down $0.2 week - on - week, equivalent to about 874 yuan in RMB at the exchange rate of 7.12. The optimal deliverable product is NM powder, with a latest quotation of about 785 yuan/ton and a converted warehouse receipt (factory warehouse) of about 811 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory**: The iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China increased compared to the previous period and was lower than the same period last year. As of now, the total inventory at 47 ports is 14,456.12 tons, an increase of 30 tons compared to the previous period, a decrease of 1,154 tons from the beginning of the year, and 1,584 tons lower than the inventory at the same period last year. It is predicted that the inventory at 47 ports may decrease in the next period [7]. - **Supply** - **Shipments**: The total global iron ore shipments this period were 3,573.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 816.9 tons. The total shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2,850.8 tons, an increase of 583.8 tons. Australian shipments were 1,981.6 tons, an increase of 202.0 tons, and the amount shipped to China was 1,736.7 tons, an increase of 244.5 tons. Brazilian shipments were 869.3 tons, an increase of 381.8 tons [8]. - **Arrivals**: From September 8 - 14, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 ports in China were 2,392.3 tons, a decrease of 180.6 tons compared to the previous period; the total arrivals at 45 ports were 2,362.3 tons, a decrease of 85.7 tons; and the total arrivals at six northern ports were 1,245.0 tons, a decrease of 75.0 tons [8]. - **Demand** - **Molten iron output**: The average daily molten iron output of 247 sample steel mills increased this week, reaching 240.55 tons/day, an increase of 11.71 tons/day compared to last week, a decrease of 4.22 tons/day from the beginning of the year, and an increase of 17.17 tons/day year - on - year. There were 25 new blast furnace复产 and 3 blast furnace overhauls this period [10]. - **Profit**: As of September 12, in the long - process spot market, the cash - inclusive cost of long - process rebar in East China was 3,135 yuan, with a point - to - point profit of about 54.75 yuan, and the long - process cash - inclusive profit of hot - rolled coils was about 164.75 yuan. In the electric - furnace market, the flat - rate electricity cost of electric furnaces in East China (according to Fubao's data) was about 3,312 yuan, and the off - peak electricity cost was about 3,185 yuan. The flat - rate electricity profit of rebar in East China was about - 262 yuan, and the off - peak electricity profit was about - 135 yuan [10]. 2. Data Combing - **Iron ore warehouse receipt price**: The optimal deliverable product is NM powder, with a converted warehouse receipt (factory warehouse) of about 811 yuan/ton. Other varieties also have corresponding chemical indicators, quality premiums, brand premiums, and converted warehouse receipt prices [16]. - **Iron ore inter - delivery spread**: As of September 15, the spread between iron ore 1 - 5 contracts closed at 21.5 (- 2.5) [19]. - **Iron ore import profit**: Not mentioned in the report - **High - low grade spread**: Not mentioned in the report - **Premium index**: As of September 11, the premium index for 62.5% lump ore was 0.1825 (+ 0.0005), and the premium index for 65% pellets was 16.6 (-) [29]. - **Brand premium (discount) and inventory**: Various brands such as Mac powder, PB powder, and Jinbuba powder have corresponding inventory trends and premium (discount) data in 15 ports [31]. - **Steel mill sintered powder inventory**: As of September 12, the inventory of imported sintered powder decreased by 70.7 tons compared to September 5, a decrease of 5.75%; the inventory of domestic sintered powder decreased by 0.7 tons, a decrease of 0.94%; and the average inventory days of imported ore decreased by 1.0 days, a decrease of 4.76% [34]. - **Imported ore inventory and daily consumption of 247 steel mills**: As of September 12, the imported ore inventory of steel mills increased by 53.18 tons compared to September 5, an increase of 0.59%; the daily consumption of imported ore increased by 15.98 tons, an increase of 5.69%; and the inventory - to - sales ratio of imported ore decreased by 1.53 days, a decrease of 4.80% [37]. - **Port inventory and berthing**: The total port inventory (45 ports), berthing ship numbers at 47 ports, and the inventory of Australian, Brazilian, and trade ores at ports all have corresponding data trends [40]. - **Port inventory by ore type**: As of September 12, the inventory of imported port lump ore increased by 42 tons compared to September 5, an increase of 2.68%; the inventory of pellet ore increased by 3 tons, an increase of 1.06%; the inventory of iron concentrate decreased by 30 tons, a decrease of 2.67%; and the inventory of coarse powder increased by 8 tons, an increase of 0.08% [43]. - **Surcharge**: The surcharge volume has corresponding data trends from 2020 - 2025 [46]. - **Iron ore in - transit volume**: The in - transit volume of iron ore from Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries to China has corresponding data trends [49]. - **Iron ore import quantity**: The import quantities of iron ore from the whole country, Australia, Brazil, South Africa, and other countries have corresponding data trends [52]. - **Australian iron ore shipments**: As of September 12, Australian shipments to China were 1,737 tons, an increase of 245 tons compared to September 5, an increase of 16.39%; the total Australian shipments were 1,982 tons, an increase of 202.1 tons, an increase of 11.36%; and the proportion of shipments to China increased from 83.86% to 87.64% [62]. - **Brazilian iron ore shipments**: As of September 12, Brazilian shipments to the world were 869 tons, an increase of 382 tons compared to September 5, an increase of 78.32% [67]. - **Shipments of the four major mines**: As of September 12, the shipments of Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton, Vale, and FMG to China increased by 139 tons, 27 tons, 259 tons, and 72 tons respectively compared to September 5, with increases of 27.85%, 6.01%, 73.59%, and 21.89% respectively, and the total shipments increased by 497 tons, an increase of 30.47% [68]. - **Iron ore arrivals**: As of September 12, the arrivals at 45 ports were 0 tons, a decrease of 2,448 tons compared to September 5, a decrease of 100.0%; the arrivals at northern ports were 1,245 tons, a decrease of 75 tons, a decrease of 5.7% [75]. - **Freight rates**: The freight rates of iron ore from Brazil's Tubarao to Qingdao and from Western Australia to Qingdao have corresponding data trends from 2020 - 2025 [77]. - **Domestic ore production (estimated)**: As of September 12, the output of iron concentrate from mines was 77.7 tons, an increase of 4.0 tons compared to September 5, an increase of 5.42%; the inventory of iron concentrate from mines was 35 tons, an increase of 1 ton, an increase of 2.84% [79]. - **Steel mill powder daily consumption and steel mill capacity utilization**: As of September 12, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.2%, an increase of 4.39 percentage points compared to September 5, an increase of 5.12%; the daily consumption of imported sintered powder was 62.2 tons, an increase of 9.84 tons, an increase of 18.80%; the daily consumption of domestic ore sintered powder was 9.2 tons, an increase of 1.50 tons, an increase of 19.43%; and the average daily molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 240.6 tons, an increase of 11.71 tons, an increase of 5.12% [81]. - **Pig iron production**: The daily average pig iron production of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Iron and Steel Association has corresponding data trends from 2016 - 2025, and there are also year - on - year growth rates for 2024/2023 and 2025/2024 [87]. - **Global pig iron production**: The pig iron production of the EU 28 countries, Japan, South Korea, India, the world, and China has corresponding data trends from 2020 - 2025 [90]. - **Global (excluding China) pig iron production**: The pig iron production of regions outside China has corresponding data trends from 2017 - 2025, as well as month - on - month and year - on - year growth rates [95].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant growth of China's futures market, with total funds exceeding 1.9 trillion yuan and a year-on-year increase in trading volume and value of 21.7% and 22.9% respectively from January to August 2023 [1] - The futures market's strong performance is driven by three main factors: policy guidance, improved macroeconomic environment, and inherent demand within industries [1][2] - The stability of the trading-to-position ratio, approximately 0.77, indicates a mature futures market with a focus on long-term hedging rather than short-term speculation [2] Group 2 - The futures market plays a crucial role in supporting the stability of industrial supply chains and enhancing the quality of economic development by providing effective risk management tools for enterprises [3] - The proportion of industry clients in the off-exchange derivative trading business of futures companies has surpassed 50%, reflecting an optimized client structure in risk management subsidiaries [2] - Future growth opportunities in the futures market include innovation in products and tools, nurturing market participants, and building a technology-enabled system to enhance trading efficiency and risk management capabilities [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange is committed to maintaining the stable operation of the futures market while continuously optimizing its products and services, particularly focusing on the shipping index futures that have been active for two years [1][9]. Group 1: Product Overview - The shipping index (European line) futures, launched on August 18, 2023, are the world's first shipping futures based on China's index development and serve as a risk hedging tool for shipping companies [1][8]. - The product has gained significant attention from the port and shipping logistics industry, especially among cargo owners and freight forwarders, due to its ability to help manage price volatility risks [2][3]. Group 2: Market Performance - Over the past two years, the shipping index futures have shown strong market activity, with a total trading volume of 61.05 million contracts and a total transaction value of 5.28 trillion yuan, averaging 126,400 contracts and 10.94 billion yuan per day [10]. - The futures have successfully withstood extreme market fluctuations, including significant price increases during crises, demonstrating their effectiveness in serving the real economy [11]. Group 3: Risk Management and Case Studies - Companies participating in the shipping index futures have reported effective cost control and risk mitigation, with one company achieving a profit of approximately 32,000 yuan (about 4,500 USD) through strategic futures trading [4][3]. - The futures have allowed businesses to focus more on operational aspects rather than being overly concerned about price volatility, thus enhancing overall business stability [5][6]. Group 4: Future Developments - In 2024, the Shanghai Futures Exchange plans to launch the "Sailing Project" to provide financial support to participating entities, further promoting the use of shipping index futures [4]. - The exchange aims to continue enhancing its services and products while expanding the application scenarios for the shipping index futures, encouraging more companies to engage in risk hedging [16][17].

Group 1 - As of September 5, 2025, the main contract for soybean oil futures closed at 8450 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.10% [1] - The trading volume decreased by 5702 contracts compared to the previous week [1] - Domestic edible oil inventory reached 2.7017 million tons, with a weekly increase of 109300 tons, marking a 4.22% rise week-on-week and a 19.10% increase year-on-year [2] Group 2 - In July, the U.S. exported 28,583 tons of soybean oil, the lowest level since November of the previous year [2] - There are concerns regarding the demand for U.S. soybeans as Chinese buyers have not placed orders for new U.S. soybeans [3] - The upcoming release of export and inventory data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) is expected to influence market trends [3]

【冠通研究】 震荡调整 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 28 日 【策略分析】 今日低开高走，日内震荡偏强。今日尿素现货市场氛围转好，低价拿货情 况有增加。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围在 1650-1690 元/吨，部分工厂价格上调 10 元/吨左右。基本面来看，今日上游工厂装置多发 停车检修，山西潞安、河南心连心及山西兰花均开启检修，日产数据下调至 18 万吨左右，但目前均属于正常计划内检修。需求端，工业需求有韧性，复合肥 工厂开工已至历史同期高位，后续攀升高度有限，近期受阅兵环保限产的影 响，复合肥工厂连续两周出现限产减产情况，开工负荷继续下调。成品库存近 两个月位于五年同期高位水平，本周库存有去化，秋季肥逐渐开始跟进。期库 存继续累库，较上周增加 6.19 万吨，环比增加 6.05%，部分地区有出口订单或 停车检修计划，库存有所去化。今日盘面震荡回调，行情依然位于震荡区间 内，市场暂无明显驱动，向上向下空间均有限，九月初印标结果将对行情造成 一定影响，短期或震荡调整，中期有反弹布空机会。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1737 元/吨低开高走，日内震荡偏强，最终 收 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Weekly Report (Gold and Silver) [1] - Date: August 26, 2025 [1] - Author: Wang Wenhu [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Fed Chair Powell's remarks on potential policy adjustment due to weak employment supply - demand, along with Trump's pressure, have raised the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. Global central banks' continuous gold purchases may lead to an upward - trending precious metals market. It is recommended that investors go long on dips [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic Data and Central Bank Policies - US: The PPI annual rate and core CPI annual rate in July increased. The 8 - month one - and five - year inflation expectations were 4.9% and 3.9%, higher than expected. The outstanding public debt was $3.72 trillion, up $96.8 billion from last week. The Treasury plans to raise cash reserves to $850 billion by the end of September and issue over $1 trillion in bonds in Q3. The Fed's reserve balance decreased, while the Treasury's cash account increased. The Fed's discount and seasonal loans to commercial banks changed, and the overnight reverse repurchase agreement scale decreased [7][11][17] - Europe: The ECB paused rate cuts in July, keeping the deposit mechanism rate at 2%. The eurozone and German August manufacturing PMIs were higher than expected. The ECB may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [2] - UK: The Bank of England cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August, continued to reduce £100 billion in government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025, and may slow down the balance - sheet reduction. It may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [2] - Japan: The July consumer price index CPI (CPI) annual rate in Japan (Tokyo) was 3.1% (3.1%), in line with expectations but lower than the previous value. The Q2 GDP quarterly rate was 0.3%, higher than expected. There is an expectation of a rate hike before the end of 2025, possibly as early as October [3] Market Performance - Bond Market: US short -, medium -, and long - term Treasury yields weakened. Medium - and long - term inflation - protected Treasury yields declined. The spread between long - and short - term Treasury yields widened. The spread between US and German (Japanese) medium - and long - term Treasury yields decreased [21][25][28][51] - Stock Market: Not mentioned in the report - Commodity Market: Gold: COMEX gold non - commercial long - to - short ratio decreased, ETF holdings decreased, total inventory of COMEX and SHFE gold decreased. Gold futures and spot spreads were at a relatively low level, and the basis was also at a low level. Silver: COMEX silver non - commercial long - to - short ratio increased, ETF holdings increased, total inventory of COMEX, SHFE, and SGE silver increased. Silver futures and spot spreads and basis were within a reasonable range [60][79][83] - Foreign Exchange Market: The euro - to - dollar exchange rate increased, and the dollar - to - RMB exchange rate decreased [54] Investment Strategies - Precious Metals: For gold, investors are advised to go long on dips, with attention to support and resistance levels. For gold spreads, investors can consider short - term, light - position long - entry opportunities for gold futures spreads and basis. For silver, it is recommended to wait and see for most spread arbitrage opportunities [3][68][72] - Others: Investors can consider short - term, light - position long - entry opportunities for "gold - to - silver ratio", "gold - to - oil ratio", and "gold - to - copper ratio" [97][100]

Market Overview - In April, stock markets including A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and US stocks experienced significant volatility due to tariff issues, but major indices have been on an upward trend since early April [1] - From January to July, the A-share indices saw increases of approximately 6.61% for the Shanghai Composite Index, 5.71% for the Shenzhen Component Index, and 8.72% for the ChiNext Index [1] Asset Management Performance - Various asset management products showed strong performance in the first seven months of the year, with an average return of about 3.95% across 295 products displayed on the private equity platform [1] - Equity strategy asset management products outperformed others with an average return of 11.19%, while the average return for asset management products over the past year was approximately 11.78%, with equity strategy products leading at over 33% [1] Top Performing Products - The top three equity strategy products from January to July are: 1. Guohai Liangshi's "Guohai Liangshi Jinshi No. 2 Index Enhanced" 2. Jinying Fund's "Jinying Xingwen Zhi Yuan No. 3 Collection" 3. Xiangcai Securities' "Qitai No. 1" [4][5] - The top three products in the futures and derivatives strategy category are: 1. Shanghai Dongya Futures' "Dongfeng No. 1" 2. Ruida Futures' "Ruizhi Wuyou No. 99" 3. CITIC Construction Investment Futures' "Quantitative CTA No. 1" [8][10] Manager Profiles - He Xiangqi, the investment manager for Guohai Liangshi, has extensive experience in quantitative investment strategies and manages multiple core products [6] - The investment managers for Jinying Fund's top product include Chen Ying and Fang Chao, both with significant experience in TMT industry research and investment [6] Multi-Asset and Bond Strategies - The top multi-asset strategy products include Guohai Liangshi's "Guohai Liangshi Jinshi No. 6" and Jinxin Futures' "Jinxin Yueduan No. 1" [16][18] - In the bond strategy category, the leading products are Duyue Futures' "Xingfeng" and Shanghai Zhongqi Futures' "Convertible Bond Arbitrage No. 1" [21][22]

Core Insights - The project "Insurance + Futures + Banking" initiated in Yijun County aims to provide comprehensive financial services for the agricultural industry, particularly focusing on apple farmers [1][2] - The project has received strong support from various government levels and financial institutions, highlighting a collaborative effort to enhance agricultural risk management [2] Group 1: Project Overview - The "Insurance + Futures + Banking" project was launched in Yijun County, targeting 17,000 acres of apple orchards to provide price risk protection [2] - The project is a collaboration between multiple entities including Jianxin Futures, China United Property Insurance, and several banks and futures companies [2] Group 2: Financial Impact - Since 2020, Jianxin Futures has been involved in agricultural projects in Yijun County, with a total insurance coverage amounting to 579 million yuan [1] - The initiative aims to enrich the agricultural risk management toolbox and promote innovative financial solutions in the agricultural sector [2] Group 3: Regional Significance - Yijun County is recognized as an optimal apple production area in Shaanxi, contributing significantly to the local economy [1] - The project is part of a broader strategy to support rural revitalization and high-quality development in agriculture [2]

得益于国内甲醇港口库存去化预期增强，同时下游需求有望稳步改善，基本面利多因素提振多头主力推 涨期价，空头主力自知不敌，主动撤退。上周，国内甲醇2101合约呈现放量减仓上行走势，期价再创今 年3月以来的新高2058元/吨。 近一周，甲醇期货2101合约持仓量呈现先增后减态势。其中，多空前20名席位均显著减仓。数据显示， 多头前20名席位的持仓量从8月28日的627620手减少至9月4日的621026手，累计减少6594手;空头前20名 席位的持仓量从8月28日的819244手减少至9月4日的792477手，累计减少26767手。由于甲醇基本面偏乐 观，虽然上周五遭遇宏观利空风险冲击，但是多头尾盘反击明显，空头主力被迫选择撤离。由此导致多 空前20名席位的净空头寸显著回落。数据显示，2101合约净空头寸由8月28日的191624手减少至9月4日 的171451手，净减20173手，降幅达10.53%。 具体来看，在空头前20名席位中，减持的席位有13家，增持的席位有7家。减持方面，东证期货席位和 海通期货席位减持数量居前，分别减少25453手和11253手。同时，申银万国期货席位、银河期货席位、 国泰君安期货席位 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent weakness in the U.S. labor market and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are driving gold prices higher, with gold trading around $3380.94 per ounce, reflecting a 0.36% increase [2][4][5] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data released for July shows signs of labor market weakness, leading to increased bets on the Fed's potential rate cuts, which typically support gold prices by lowering real interest rates [2][4][5] - Market sentiment is further bolstered by ongoing geopolitical tensions, which contribute to a persistent demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][4][6] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast for the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December, with potential for further cuts in 2026, depending on inflation and labor market data [5][6] - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 93.6% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September, reflecting heightened market expectations for monetary easing [4][5] - Analysts suggest that if the Fed follows through with rate cuts, it could provide upward momentum for gold prices, especially given the current high levels [6][7] Group 3 - The ongoing global central bank purchases of gold are expected to support gold prices, making them less likely to decline significantly [7] - Investment strategies such as dollar-cost averaging into gold ETFs are recommended for investors looking to hedge against economic downturns and inflation [7]